DUPLICITY DECEPTION and LIES

By Peter S. Eisenhut

DUPLICITY DECEPTION and LIES is a trilogy. The author, Peter Eisenhut, blends mystery, romance, and history into three thrillers with unexpected twists and turns. The stories focus on the lives of intelligence opera

• Language: English
• Publisher: Bennett Media and Marketing
• Release date: Apr 19, 2024
• ISBN: 9781964296036

Peter S. Eisenhut

Peter S. Eisenhut is a graduate of Cornell University and the University of Rochester. He worked for two international organizations and as an independent consultant. Throughout his career, he held officer positions in several professional and civic organizations. He is also an avid hiker. The inspiration for his novels comes from his career experiences and his travels. Peter lives in Columbia Maryland with his wife Jean.

Book preview

DUPLICITY_DECEPTION_and_LIES_Cover_eBook.jpg

DUPLICITY

DECEPTION and LIES

(A TRILOGY)

ALSO BY PETER EISENHUT

THE PEN PROJECT

THE BOULDER CREEK PROJECT

FINAL PROJECT

FATEFUL AFFAIRS

DUPLICITY

DECEPTION and LIES

The Pen

Code Name Boulder Creek

Her Final Project

A Trilogy by Peter Eisenhut

Copyright 2023 by Peter S. Eisenhut

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced by any means, graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by any information storage retrieval system without the written permission of the author except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews.

DUPLICITY DECEPTION and LIES is a Trilogy consisting of three stories, The Pen, Code Name Boulder Creek, and Her Final Project. The three stories are works of fiction set in historical backgrounds. Names, characters, places, and incidents, are the product of the author’s imagination or used fictitiously. Descriptions of historical people, places, organizations, geographies, and events, are the product of the author’s memory, or interpretation, and may not be historically accurate.

Bennett books may be ordered through booksellers or by contacting:

Bennett Media and Marketing

1603 Capitol Ave., Suite 310 A233

Cheyenne, WY 82001

www.thebennettmediaandmarketing.com

Phone: [phone]

Because of the dynamic nature of the Internet, any web addresses or links contained in this book may have changed since publication and may no longer be valid. The views expressed in this work are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher, and the publisher hereby disclaims any responsibility for them.

Certain stock imagery Freepik.com©

ISBN: 978-1-964296-02-9 (Hardback)

ISBN: 978-1-964296-01-2 (Paperback)

ISBN: 978-1-964296-03-6 (eBook)

Printed in the United States of America

CONTENTS

THE PEN 1

In 1967, a young but brilliant Peter Troutman agrees to participate in a special assignment in Vietnam. He is eager to serve his country during the Vietnam War. However, he experiences more than he bargained for. The CIA involves him in espionage, assassination, and relationships that challenge his sense of morality, and affect the rest of his life.

CODE NAME BOULDER CREEK 217

In 1987, Peter Troutman, a senior employee of a large computer company, works undercover with the CIA and the FBI. Together, they attempt to stop the Soviets from putting an end to President Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative. The suspense, intrigue, romance, and unexpected outcomes will not disappoint!

HER FINAL PROJECT 443

In 2003, a seasoned intelligence officer, Donna Wolf, strives to complete an important mission before the end of her life. Things don’t go as planned. Her mission evolves into a larger covert project involving multiple intelligence operatives. Donna’s daughter, an unwitting participant, struggles to discover the truth about her own involvement and about her mother’s life and final actions. With the help of others, including Peter Troutman, she reveals a quagmire of deception and uncertainty, affecting their careers and their personal lives.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 677

ABOUT THE AUTHOR 678

THE PEN

By

Peter Eisenhut

PROLOGUE

Try to imagine living in a world without small plastic water bottles, smartphones, DVRs, the Internet, or personal computers. If you were born after 1980, you might find it difficult to do. However, this was the reality of the 1960s.

In the 1960s, computers were very primitive. Organizations were just beginning to harness the power of large computers housed in custom-designed rooms. Over time, the demand for computer professionals increased. After congress passed the Civil Rights Act in 1964, organizations began to hire more women and minorities, especially for computer-related jobs.

Meanwhile, during this time, an unpopular war was taking place in Vietnam, and the United States was becoming increasingly involved. In the 1960s, the United States government required all men over the age of eighteen to register for the draft. Some volunteered to serve before they were drafted, and some went to Canada to avoid the draft. However, most of those who went to Vietnam from the United States were drafted. A lesser number were college graduates who became military officers by participating in the Reserve Officer Training Corps or by attending one of the military academies. Fewer yet were civilians, and most of them were men. Peter Troutman was one of those civilians. Most of those who went to Vietnam from the United States were told that they were there to protect our values and prevent the spread of communism. Most believed it. Peter Troutman was no exception.

He was young and socially naïve, but he was also smart. It was in the 1960s that he developed the concept of the PEN. The PEN Project was the reason he went to Vietnam. But the idea for the PEN project didn’t happen all at once. There was never a eureka moment. It evolved over a period of years. The idea of uncertainty and probability always intrigued him. He always had an interest in how past events influenced future events. He would ask, what if that had happened, and then what would have followed?

The events of the early and mid-1960s influenced Peter Troutman’s thoughts. His thoughts led to the development of the PEN, the Probabilistic Event Network.

1

WHAT IF

It was early on an October morning in upstate New York in the year 1961. The sun was out, but the temperature was cool, and it was breezy. The word brisk comes to mind. Peter Troutman and his friend, George, stood on the side of a two-lane highway with their thumbs out, holding a sign that said Watkins Glen.

It had been more than fifteen minutes since their first ride had dropped them off about one-third of the way to their destination. Where was the traffic? Peter was beginning to feel the cold and wondered why he had let George talk him into this. What if this didn’t work out? No, he realized that it was not fair to blame George. It was as much his doing as it was George’s. Perhaps they had both been foolish.

Peter and George were in their sophomore year at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. The two of them were friends. Unknown powers had paired them up in their freshman year and declared them roommates. Fortunately, it worked out. They got along. They were both in the same engineering school, they helped each other with their studies, and they had common interests. By common interest, we’re not just talking about girls and booze. We’re also talking about math, science, and fast cars. Although they had been out on the town together, most of the time they studied. After freshman year, George had moved into an off-campus rooming house, and Peter had moved into a fraternity house. However, they remained friends.

They were in the sixth week of their sophomore year when George called Peter to ask if he was interested in attending an automobile race the following weekend. After more than five weeks with their noses to the grindstone, they needed a break. Attending the auto race in Watkins Glen seemed like a great idea, and Peter told him so. Then George confessed that they had no way to get there. He wanted to know if one of Peter’s fraternity brothers, presumably one with wheels, wanted to go. Peter told him he would ask around. Unfortunately, no one else was interested, but Peter really wanted to go. The race was only four days away when Peter called him back with the bad news. Not sure who suggested it, but they decided to hitchhike. Neither of them had access to a car, and there was no public transportation that would have gotten them there, so hitchhiking seemed to make sense. The race track was many miles away. So, they left early in the morning to ensure they would get there in time.

The big race on this day was the United States Grand Prix at Watkins Glen. It was the first time ever that this race had been held at Watkins Glen. The participants would be the top international drivers and carmakers in the world. At the time, the Watkins Glen racecourse, simply known as The Glen, was a 2.35-mile track that included hills, sharp curves, and a tricky chicane at the back end of the course furthest from the starting line. The cars were Formula 1, open cockpit, open-wheeled missiles. They looked much like those at the Indy 500.

As Peter remembered it, Honda was experimenting that year with a turbine-powered car. It would not be in the race, but it would do trial runs beforehand. News reports had described the high-pitched wail of the engine as it sped around the track. As engineering students, they couldn’t wait. Although it was a three-day event, they were only going for the main event on Sunday.

They may have been having second thoughts because as they stood there on the side of the road, they began to ask a lot of what if questions:

What if no one picks us up? How long do we wait? And then what?

What if we get there late? Could we still get into the infield?

What if we can’t get a ride back to Cornell?

What if we don’t get back to Cornell until late in the evening? Would we be locked out of our respective houses?

Of course, they considered these questions before they left, but now they were getting anxious about the uncertainty of the outcome.

Despite the second thoughts, Peter and George did hitchhike the thirty miles or so to Watkins Glen; they did see the entire race from the infield; and they made it back at a reasonable time that evening. So, were they just lucky? For sure, there was a great deal of uncertainty. Outcomes could have been much different. How did they reach their decision to do this when there was so much uncertainty?

They considered the probabilities, and they considered the severity of the possible consequences. They reasoned that many people would drive to the racecourse from Cornell that morning making the likelihood (probability) of getting a ride very high.

On the other hand, what if no one stopped and gave them a ride? They reasoned that if they didn’t get a ride within a certain length of time, they would simple turn around and head back. That would not have been a big downside; the time they were not able to study was time they were able to talk as friends and enjoy each other’s company. What if they couldn’t get a ride back? They figured the likelihood of not getting a ride back to school was even less than the likelihood of not getting a ride to The Glen. They reasoned that if the person that gave them a ride to the Glen also attended the event, they could request a return trip. However, what if they were unable to do that? Well, they figured there would be many other people going back to Cornell, and someone would eventually pick them up. If not, it would be an adventure. As it were, the person that took them did not bring them back, but he knew someone who could. Apparently, Cornell students had been going to this event for years, and many of them knew each other.

There was another what if experience that involved George. The previous spring, Peter had pledged to a fraternity, while George had decided to remain independent. When Spring Weekend approached, George and Peter discussed meeting women and getting dates. More what ifs ensued:

How do we get dates for Spring Weekend?

Who do we ask?

What if they say no?

What if we can’t get a date?

As it were, George didn’t think that getting a date was a top priority, and he was content to study. On the other hand, having a date for Spring Weekend was more important to Peter. Perhaps that was why Peter saw a need to join a fraternity and George didn’t. As it turned out, Peter asked someone, but she turned him down, and he could not think of anyone else to ask. Was there a possible downside? Yes, he would miss some fun at his new fraternity, but he could still go and help with the beer and the drinks. It just so happened however, that his Big Brother was the Social Director for the fraternity. Peter debated whether to tell him his plight.

Peter didn’t want him to think of him as less of a man because he was unable to get a date. However, he decided to risk it. After all, he was supposed to be his Big Brother and a worthy mentor. As it turned out, it was Peter’s lucky day—well, somewhat, anyway. Big Brother knew someone who would like a date. It turns out that the someone was his sister—his blood sister, not a sorority sister. Peter knew what this meant. He had to be on his best behavior. Well, as it turned out she was only a senior in high school. Since her brother was nearby, she acted quite properly, and Peter responded accordingly. However, she was attractive and she was his date. He had no reason to be embarrassed. Other brothers looked on with envy. The upsides of that weekend outweighed the downsides, and Peter earned the respect of his new fraternity brothers.

These experiences provided valuable insights into how people make decisions. The results of actions one takes in life are uncertain. The best we can do when we make a decision, is to estimate the likelihoods or probabilities of the possible outcomes and evaluate the potential impacts these outcomes are likely to have. Sometimes we do this consciously and sometimes intuitively. Sometimes we do it well, and sometimes not so well. Nevertheless, we all do it.

****

Peter began to realize that events are not isolated but that one outcome leads to the need for another decision and to another uncertain outcome, ad infinitum.

To illustrate this point further, in 1965, Peter married Penelope, and went to work for TGW in Rochester, New York. During that time, he attended night school at The University of Rochester. What were the chains of events that enabled these things to happen?

How did he come to be married to Penelope? He would not have met her had it not been for Ben. Ben asked Peter if he wanted to go with him and two others to see some girls at a nearby all girl’s college. Ben didn’t have a car, so someone else provided the transportation. Apparently, Ben had been dating a girl at that school, and she had a friend who wanted a date. Yes, blind dates usually don’t live up to expectations. Not a problem for Peter. He had no expectations. Besides, he was always interested and curious about things, and he looked forward to the experience. He told Ben he would be happy to go.

Ben introduced his girlfriend, Penelope, and then introduced Peter to his date, Olive. They spent the evening at a local pub, had one drink, and danced to a couple of Juke box numbers. It was not an exciting evening but it was friendly and cordial. The four of them were not party types, but were more on the reserved side.

At one point, Peter looked across the table at Ben and Penelope and wondered how they ever hooked up. They were not hitting it off any better than he was with Olive. Peter asked how they met and learned that they were both Catholic and met at an intercollegiate church event. Perhaps that was the only thing they had in common. Sometimes Penelope returned Peter’s occasional glances. He sensed that inside she had a spark, energy just waiting for an opportunity to release itself. He was attracted to her.

Two weeks later, Peter found himself talking to Ben about an upcoming party at his fraternity.

Are you thinking about asking Olive? he wanted to know.

No, I don’t think so. Are you going to ask Penelope?

Then surprisingly, he said, No. I’m not going to see her anymore. Why don’t you ask her?

Wait a minute, what happened? Are you sure?

I’m sure.

Since Peter really had an interest, he was very curious to know what went wrong, so he pressed. No, really, I want to know. If I ask her out, I’d like to know what I’m getting myself into.

She’s Catholic, he said in a cynical tone.

I thought you were as well.

Yes, but she told me I was not worthy, and I told her she had no soul.

I see, was all Peter could think to say. On further reflection, Peter decided that Ben was probably frustrated that she didn’t want to have sex with him. So, Peter decided to ask her out.

Peter’s relationship with Penelope started based on pure chance. It then developed based on conscious decisions made on both their parts and influenced by others every step of the way. Three and one-half years later, in 1965, they got married.

****

After his marriage, Peter went to work for TGW. TGW was a privately held manufacturing company with about three thousand employees, located in Rochester, New York. They made specialty machine tools mostly for the automotive industry worldwide. At the time, only rear- wheel-drive cars were on the road. TGW had a monopoly on the machines that made the hypoid gears that connected the drive shaft to the differential gears and the rear axle.

Peter would not have ended up at TGW if his parents had been rich. They were not. They told him before he went to college that they could only afford to finance one of his years of college. It was only his efforts and a great deal of luck that he was able to complete seven years. Some of the events were by chance; some were by design, but all were uncertain. One way he financed a portion of his education at Cornell was to apply to be part of a co-op work-study program. He was accepted into the co-op program at TGW. He received his degree in the same amount of time, but instead of working summers, he had a high-paying job working a fall semester, a summer semester, and a spring semester. That meant taking classes during two summers rather than during the regular semesters.

During his co-op work sessions in Rochester, Peter learned how to survive on his own, and although he didn’t have too much of it, he was learning how to manage money. During one of his work sessions in the spring of 1964, he heard about a new company called Xerox that started up in nearby Webster. Xerox had gone public, and people were telling him how Xerox was revolutionary and how the stock price was going to go through the roof. Peter was at the end of his work session and it was almost time to head back to Cornell. However, he was curious. He went into a stockbroker’s office that he just happened to walk past. He was wearing ragged clothes and he walked in off the street with no appointment. One of the brokers greeted him. Peter told him he knew nothing about the market but had heard about Xerox. The broker told Peter that for $200, he could have a share, and he was quite certain that it would increase in value. Peter had the $200, but that was all he had, and he needed the money to eat. So, he thanked the broker but did not invest. As we now know, the stockbroker was right. Xerox stock took off and split several times after that. Well, ever since, Peter has asked what if?

Peter’s prior co-op experience at TGW led to a nice full-time job offer when he graduated from Cornell in 1965. They hired him as a systems analyst and assigned him to the Systems Department. He reported directly to Mr. G. Mr. G was the nephew of the current president and rapidly on his way to the executive suite. He had recently joined the family business after spending time in South East Asia. Peter was not sure what he did there but thought he worked for the State Department. Rumor was that he was fluent in more than one language, including Chinese. Anyway, Mr. G’s mission was to modernize the company, and he was doing just that. Only five years earlier, TGW didn’t allow female employees to smoke, the office areas had no air-conditioning, and spittoons lined the manufacturing floors. Mr. G. had created a Data Processing Department and a Systems Department of which Peter now became a part. The mission of the Systems Department, was to redesign the way the company operated its business, to make it more effective at less cost.

Computers were playing an increasingly important role in business. TGW already had two. By 1966, computers were faster and more reliable than they were before 1960, when they still used vacuum tubes. The use of transistors and even solid-state circuitry not only allowed them to be faster, but also allowed them to be smaller. Smaller computers could be housed in smaller rooms, and the cost of cooling those rooms could be lower. The two computers at TGW and the tape drives that fed the programs and data into them stood on raised flooring in a room that was about thirty feet by fifty feet in size. At TGW, computer programs replaced an entire room of people whose full-time jobs had been to crunch numbers using Marchant mechanical calculators.

TGW had a large manufacturing job-shop, with each job moving through the manufacturing facility according to a predefined route. One of the assignments Peter had while in the work-study co-op program was to read the blueprint of a newly designed part for a machine tool, and determine how to route it through the manufacturing job shop. For example, go to the milling department, then drilling, and then heat treat, etc. For each step along the way, the routing sheet would also specify exactly what work to perform and the tools required to do it. These routings were handwritten and then typed onto special multipart forms. Often the routings needed modifications. The entire process was time-consuming and labor-intensive. Peter found a way to improve the process using the computer and the new Xerox technology.

Later, Peter became interested in how to minimize the overall elapsed time it took to manufacture a part. If too many jobs arrived at a workstation at the same time, they would queue up and wait their turn for service. Then the question became which job to work on next. The mathematics involved advanced queuing theory. The math was intriguing but elusive. There was no Internet in the 1960s, but Peter read technical papers, attended seminars, and consulted with experts. He learned that computer programs could simulate the process and determine the most favorable rules for routing work through a job-shop. At his recommendation, TGW began to implement these rules.

Most of Peter’s projects at TGW involved changing the way things were done so that they would be done more effectively, more efficiently, or at a lower cost. Often, these changes depended upon computer applications. Computer applications were the wave of the future!

****

After coming to TGW full-time, Peter decided to get an MBA degree. His interest had already changed from becoming a professional engineer to becoming a systems analyst, and now he was thinking he might want to end up as a business manager with an engineering background. In short, he was still trying to figure it out. He enrolled in the University of Rochester MBA program at night. He figured that since both Penelope and he were both employed full-time, night school was affordable. However, he was especially pleased when he found out that TGW would pay for it.

The graduate MBA program at The University of Rochester was normally a full-time two-year program. However, Peter was exempted from six courses in the first year’s curriculum. He did this by passing three of the courses’ final exams, and by applying course credits from three other courses he took at Cornell. He was able to take two to three courses each semester and figured he would earn the MBA in less than three years at night, maybe two. Without that opportunity, the next three years of his life may have turned out differently. Once again, a sequence of events that may or may not have materialized.

Each of the events that led to his being married to Penelope, working at TGW, and eventually obtaining an MBA, happened partly by design and partly by chance. In every case, the outcomes were uncertain and could have changed direction at any step along the way. In his fifth year at Cornell, he had taken a course in stochastic processes. A stochastic process is a series of events that develop over time according to the laws of probability. He began to visualize life events like the ones in his own life as a stochastic process, but with one significant difference. In real life, the likelihood of each event occurring could be influenced by human will and human action, and as some believe, divine intervention.

****

There was another event that made Peter ask, what if? On November 22, 1963, President John F. Kennedy was shot and killed in Dallas, Texas. People across the nation and the world, glued themselves to their TV sets and watched in awe as the horror unfolded. Could this unfortunate event have been predicted? Peter considered the sequence of events that preceded the assassination. Were these events known or predictable in the days, weeks, and months prior to the assassination? Peter thought so.

Think about it. The President was riding in an open convertible automobile, on a route that passed three tall buildings, a bridge, and a grassy knoll, all of which would have provided a vantage point for a sniper. The parade route had been announced several days in advance. Lee Harvey Oswald, the likely assassin, worked in one of the tall buildings. The FBI and the intelligence community knew that he owned guns, was a sharpshooter, had a military background, was a communist, and had other issues with the U.S. Government. They knew that he had defected to Russia, only to be allowed back into the USA after he lied about his mother needing him home for health reasons. They also knew he was discharged from the U.S. military as undesirable. Three weeks before the assassination, the FBI had talked with Oswald’s wife, and Oswald threatened that he would blow up the local FBI office if they didn’t stop talking with her. The public was also aware of his existence. He had previous arrests, which made the news, and there were photographs of him handing out pro-Cuban flyers in New Orleans.

There were credible warnings of an assassination attempt before Kennedy came to Texas. President Kennedy did several things that were admirable but he also made enemies. His handling of the Cuban missile crisis prevented Russia from having missiles near our mainland, but made enemies of Russia and Cuba. He also made enemies with the DOD and the CIA when he stopped an all-out invasion of Cuba, and settled for the failed Bay of Pigs Operation.

Kennedy also made enemies of the CIA and the DOD when he rejected their Northwoods proposal to commit acts of terrorism against the U.S. and then blame the Cuban government for those acts. He also felt betrayed by the CIA after the assassination of Ngo Dinh Diem, the tyrannical President of South Vietnam. Apparently, the CIA had orchestrated the assassination, while promising Kennedy that Diem would have safe passage from the country. The CIA didn’t want that evidence to come out.

Even the Mafia had grudges against President Kennedy. The President may have shared a mistress with a Mafia leader. In addition, the Mafia may have been angry because after their money helped to elect him, Kennedy’s administration actively fought Mafia corruption. There was also a possible link between the Mafia, the CIA, and the drug trade. Before coming to Texas, there was plenty of motivation for the assassination of Kennedy, and the Mafia, the CIA, or Cuban extremists could have been involved.

Peter and his fraternity brothers watched Kennedy’s assassination on TV. The nation was horrified. It was almost unbelievable that this could happen. It bothered Peter greatly that more was not done to prevent Kennedy’s assassination. Couldn’t there have been a way to centralize and evaluate all the bits of information that led up to the assassination? Would it have been possible to calculate the probabilities (likelihoods) of the possible outcome beforehand? Peter thought so. He was convinced that if a process had existed to allow such an evaluation, an assassination could have been foreseen and prevented. Given the information available, one could have calculated the probability of an assassination three months beforehand, one month beforehand, and one day beforehand. If no countermeasures were taken, these probabilities would have increased. One day beforehand, the probability of an assassination would have been very high. Peter believed that if these probabilities had been known, countermeasures could have prevented the killing of the President.

The accused assassin was Lee Harvey Oswald. People watched their TVs in horror again two days later when Oswald was assassinated. Perhaps we could have prevented that as well.

2

THE PROJECT

No doubt, you have heard the idiom, necessity is the mother of invention.

Sometimes horrific events must take place before the necessity is evident. Peter’s reaction to the assassinations of Kennedy and Oswald motivated him to find a process that would avoid such a tragedy in the future. Toward the end of 1966, he took a course in information theory. The professor challenged the class to come up with possible applications using what they had learned about predictive analysis, conditional probabilities, etc. Peter began thinking about the stock market, but quickly realized the futility of that. There were too many unknowns and too many variables. Then he started thinking about how one piece of information would relate to other pieces of information, and how one could draw some conclusions after one had enough pieces of information. Somewhere along the line, he drew a parallel between pieces of information and events. Events related to each other. If you had enough information about related events, you could possibly reach meaningful and predictive conclusions. This was the idea upon which the PEN was based.

Peter submitted the assignment paper for the Information Theory class, but on his own time, he continued to develop the concept. In 1966, the world was ripe for new ways to use computers. Computers would be a way to do things a lot faster than in the past. For example, if you take a tour of the Arch in St. Louis, while waiting to go up in the tram, you walk past a display of handwritten mathematical equations used by the architects to design the Arch. We are talking about very advanced math, differential calculus, and hyperbolic cosine functions. You can only imagine how much easier it would have been if they were able to use a computer to do the calculations and create the blueprints.

Peter thought about the possibilities of creating a network of related events, and applying the principles of information and probability theory to be able to predict outcomes. He created what became known as the Probabilistic Event Network (PEN). It was something like a PERT chart. A PERT chart is developed at the start of a project and used to track project status. It portrays the events (activities) and the sequence in which they must occur in order to reach the project’s objective. However, the PEN network differed from a PERT chart in two important ways.

First, in the PEN network, an event may or may not occur, and if it does occur, may or may not lead to any following events. It could even lead to more than one future event or objective. It was all a matter of probability. Secondly, whereas the events in a PERT chart are usually static, the events in a PEN are always changing.

****

In November of 1966, Peter talked to Professor Gavin about his probabilistic network concept. The professor was his advisor in the MBA program. (Everyone had an Advisor). As it turned out, he was very intrigued by the concept. He told Peter that if he could develop this concept, including the math that connected the events, the computer program logic, and a process for updating it, that he would count it as the project that the MBA curriculum required for graduation.

Peter had always been very good at math, but now computer programming was a new thing in which he took an interest. He involved himself in various exercises outside of his formal studies. While at Cornell, he had attempted to write a computer program to play chess. Each possible chess move could elicit various possible responses, each with a different likelihood of occurring. When he attempted it, the computers available to students were not yet up to the task, and he put the project on the shelf. Now, however, only three years later, the capabilities of computers were increasing rapidly. Peter thought that creating a computer application to apply his PEN concept would have merit, and he started thinking about real-world applications.

Professor Gavin told him that such an application might be military intelligence. Peter asked what made him think of a military application. Gavin told him that every year the CIA was one of the employers that came to the school to interview graduates. Yes, that is right, the Central Intelligence Agency. Then he said that Mr. Armstrong who came up to the school to do the interviews was someone he knew quite well and he would arrange for Peter to meet him. But first, Peter had to prove that the concept would work.

Full-time work and night school were already tough on Peter’s personal life. Sometimes he would skip supper, go right to school, take two classes, and come home extremely tired. Ironically, he could not always go to sleep right away because he would be buzzing with adrenalin. Nevertheless, he told Professor Gavin that he accepted the challenge.

With some time out for the holidays, Peter spent the next seven weeks working on the probabilistic network concept. He finally came up with a process that was able to calculate the probability or likelihood that certain predefined events would occur. Explaining it got rather technical, but Professor Gavin was eager to hear how it worked.

The process he came up with started by defining a target event that one wanted to predict. Then one would create a network of dependent events that would ultimately influence the target event. One would define appropriate rules and functions to describe the mathematical relationships between that event and the events immediately preceding it. An event that had already occurred would have a probability of 1. Then one would input apriori conditional and unconditional probabilities for each event. An apriori probability is simply one that cannot be calculated from any known data, and one that can only be estimated theoretically. Finally, a computer program would step through the network and calculate the probabilities of each event along the way until the probabilities of the target events were calculated.

In 1966, the initial input to a computer was on eighty-column punch cards. Each event in the PEN had two input cards associated with it. The first card contained a three-digit ID number, fields to define the event IDs of immediately preceding events, rules defining how those events related, and fields for apriori probabilities related to those rules. There was also a field to indicate if the event was new, deleted, or changed. The second card contained a description of the event. The plan was to read these cards into a computer and store them as two separate files on magnetic tape. The first file would be the Event Input Data File; the other would be the Event Description File. These Event Files would be updated periodically.

Peter developed mathematical functions to describe different possible relationships between events. For example, if event "A" occurs, one could calculate the probability that a dependent event B occurs. The probability of B would be the probability of A multiplied by the conditional probability of "B" given A. It gets more complicated when there are several A events affecting the probability of the B event. However, in many cases, these relationships could also be defined. For example, in the case where both A1 and A2 (and nothing else), must occur before B can occur, the probability of B is the probability of A1 multiplied by the probability of A2. Alternatively, if either A1 or A2 (and nothing else), must occur before "B" can occur, then the probability that B occurs is one minus the probability that neither A1 nor A2 occurs. The probability that neither "A1" nor A2 occurs is the probability of A1 not occurring multiplied by the probability of A2 not occurring. In some cases, an event B could be partially dependent upon an unknown event, an A3, for example. One could assign an apriori probability to the unknown event.

In some other situations, probabilities could functionally relate to external variables. For example, the probability of winning a gunfight could be an exponential function of the ratio of guns and people available on each side of the battle. Often, these types of probability functions could be created using historical data. Once created, these functions could then calculate probabilities based on current data. There were other possible relationships, and many of the functions were more complicated. These mathematical functions could be programmed in FORTRAN, and kept in a Rules File.

Peter also created a logical process for stepping through the network. A master computer program would integrate all the pieces of the process and work for hundreds of events and multiple weeks of data. Each week, this computer program would calculate the probabilities for each event. The results would be saved in a Calculated Event Probability File.

Each week, a report would show the current network and the calculated probabilities for each event. This report would be called the Event Probability Report. A trend report could also be generated for any given event to show how its calculated probability changed over time.

Bottom line: Computers could use mathematical functions to calculate the probability of future events given the probability of preceding events. Analysts could periodically update and electronically save the results.

Peter completed all the design specs for the Probabilistic Event Network by Monday January 9, 1967. He also created a simple test network of five events to illustrate the concept. For the test, he could step through the process and do all the calculations manually. That evening, he presented the results to Professor Gavin. He had spent the weekend putting it together. He had a fully documented report, overhead projector transparencies, and computer printouts. After his presentation, Professor Gavin told him rather ceremoniously Peter, congratulations! You have just satisfied the project requirements you will need to graduate.

As Peter started packing up his briefcase, Gavin added Remember I told you about Mr. Armstrong, my colleague from the CIA. He is going to be here this Wednesday evening. I would like to show him your project report, if that would be okay. In addition, I would like you to meet him. Can you be in my office at seven p.m. on Wednesday?

Yes! Thank you! Peter replied. I look forward to it.

3

A COMPELLING

OFFER

It was Wednesday, and Professor Gavin had arranged for Peter to meet with his colleague Jim Armstrong in the professor’s office at 7:00 p.m. On that day, Peter had use of the car and was home by six. Penelope arrived shortly thereafter. She worked full-time for Eastman Kodak as a computer programmer. For a woman in 1967, she had a good job, and her pay was even a tad more than Peter’s. However, they only had one car, and she worked on the opposite side of the city from TGW, where he worked.

Fortunately, Eastman Kodak was a large international company that employed many people. As a result, she was able to carpool with others that lived nearby. On the days when it was her turn to drive, or if she needed the car for other reasons, she would drive Peter to work and pick him up afterward. Either way, they both ended up home by six each evening. They would then have a quick supper, after which Peter would take the car and drive to the university to attend classes or to work in the library. Normally after he got home from work, and before driving to the university, he would change into clothes that were more relaxing. However, tonight he wanted to make an impression on Mr. Armstrong so he continued to wear his work attire—a sports jacket, slacks, white shirt, and tie.

Peter had told Penelope his good news about passing his project requirements the night before. She said she was happy for him. However, he neglected to say anything about the meeting he had tonight with Armstrong. He didn’t think anything of it until he was about to walk out the door, and Penelope noticed his attire. Aren’t you going to change? she wanted to know.

Oh, I didn’t tell you. The professor wanted me to meet with one of his associates who may have an interest in the project work I did. To be honest, I don’t know what he has in mind. I’ll tell you everything when I get home. He gave her a kiss, grabbed his briefcase, and ran out the door.

He arrived on time at 7:00 p.m., but Mr. Armstrong was already there. Armstrong and Gavin were chatting as he walked into the room. Both Gavin and Armstrong were what he would have called middle-aged. Peter learned that they had known each other for many years. He got the impression that they may have worked together before Gavin came to the university. Perhaps the professor had a secret past with the CIA?

They both stood, and Mr. Armstrong Introduced himself. Hello Mr. Troutman. I’m John Armstrong. I’m a recruiter for the CIA. I’m pleased to meet you. They shook hands; he had a firm grip. Peter was a bit nervous at first, but made his hand as firm as he could. He hoped Armstrong didn’t notice the coolness of his hand as they shook. He must have though, because then he said, No need to be nervous, Mr. Troutman. Professor Gavin has told me all good things about you.

I apologize for my cool hand, Mr. Armstrong. I admit that I’m a little nervous. I was not exactly sure why you wanted to meet me. Has Professor Gavin told you about my concept? I have all my presentation materials in my briefcase if you want to see them.

Mr. Armstrong seemed okay with Peter’s response. You can relax. Gavin has already done an excellent job of explaining what you created, and I have already read your report. He told me he liked the concept and believed that it could be implemented in a real-life situation. After that, Peter began to relax.

Mr. Armstrong then explained that the probabilistic network concept had an application for the military in Vietnam.

At that time, Penelope and Peter didn’t subscribe to a newspaper, and they did not have a TV. Peter knew very little detail about Vietnam, or about what was happening with the war there. He couldn’t help but ask, How will the CIA use the Probabilistic Event Network in Vietnam?

"Peter, the North Vietnamese have vowed to overtake South Vietnam and to unify the country under communist rule. The people of South Vietnam have a democratic government and they are a capitalist society. If the Communists take over, they will take away individual freedoms, just as they did in Russia, China, Korea, and East Germany. In many cases, they’ll execute the dissenters. The standard of living in those countries is very low. The people are poor. We believe in the democratic form of government we have here in the USA, and we believe that capitalism is the right way to go. We are there to help South Vietnam preserve what they have. We are also there to prevent communism from spreading to other countries like neighboring Laos and Cambodia.

"In the last couple of years, the South Vietnamese and the Americans have been attacked on multiple fronts. The Vietcong, who are agents of North Vietnam, attacked restaurants, military officer living quarters, and our embassy. North Vietnam has been sending troops and military supplies from Hanoi to the border with Laos and Cambodia, ready to invade. In fact, they have come across the border in many places and have taken control of some of the border villages. If the people in those villages don’t cooperate, they end up dead. The war is escalating. Many soldiers and innocent people have died.

"The military is just beginning to make effective use of computers. We have always had intelligence analysts, but a computer application like yours will allow us to analyze more events, answer more what ifs, and come to more objective conclusions than what we can do manually. Not only that, but it will allow us to do all this much faster.

We need to be able to make sensible predictions from all the intelligence that we are gathering. I think that your Probabilistic Event Network concept will be ideal. It will help us to organize intelligence and predict where the enemy is likely to attack, and possibly when. We hope that the PEN project will help to reduce the bloodshed and save South Vietnam from communist control. I want you to help us implement it. Mr. Troutman, your support for this project will be a very important thing that you can do for your country.

Then Mr. Armstrong spoke straight and to the point. He made Peter an offer he could not refuse! Mr. Troutman, the CIA wants to hire you. We want you to leave for Saigon in four weeks and help to implement your Probabilistic Event Network. You will work with a MACV project team to explain the logic and how to set up the events. You will also work with a programmer who will write the program code. You will report to an army Captain who will manage the implementation and use of the application.

WOW! That is rather sudden! Peter exclaimed. How long would I need to be there?

I expect four or five weeks, but we are flexible on that, Armstrong answered. Then he added, During the next four weeks, you will need to get a passport, attend a one-day seminar, and get a security clearance. That would mean filling out some forms. I will expedite the passport and the security clearance.

Peter had many questions. You said that I would be working with MACV. What is MACV?

MACV stands for Military Assistance Command-Vietnam. The word ‘assistance’ is to remind us that it’s not our war. We are there to ‘assist’ South Vietnam with their war. MACV oversees everything that applies to the U.S. military and advises South Vietnam. All branches of the U.S. military are under MACV command. MACV reports directly to General Westmoreland. It has a headquarters in Saigon, and that is where you will be working.

"Why do you need me? Doesn’t the military have programmers that could do the job?"

Yes, they do, but we need more than a programmer. You have developed the concept to the point where it can be implemented. We need someone who understands the math and logic that links the events to each other. You had some of those relations pre-defined, but there will be others, perhaps more complex. We also need someone who can teach the military personnel how to implement the process, and we need someone to help test the code and the process after it’s implemented to ensure that it’s working correctly according to your specs. We think that you’re the best person for the job.

What about compensation?

Not to worry. We will pay you a consulting fee of $5,000 plus all expenses.

Five thousand dollars was a lot of money back then. Peter’s salary at TGW was $11,000 per year, which at the time was considered quite good, and they were also paying his tuition in graduate school. Mr. Armstrong continued: You will also continue to get your regular pay from TGW.

Does my employer already know about this?

All of that has already been taken care of with your employer. Peter looked at Mr. Armstrong quizzically as he wondered how, when Gavin chimed in.

Mr. Armstrong and I both know Jim, referring to Mr. G, Peter’s boss, and heir to the TGW Presidency. He gave you a glowing recommendation. He mentioned your ability to work independently, to take initiative, and to figure things out without a lot of guidance.

Then Mr. Armstrong added, There will be a written contract that you will need to sign. Officially, the contract will be with TGW, but aside from Jim, you will be the only employee named on the contract. Jim will review it with you.

This sounds very exciting, but I need my wife to be okay with it.

Armstrong replied. Talk to her. You can also tell her that we will have your draft status reclassified as 2-C, ‘critical skills,’ but you need to let me know by Friday.

After Peter left that meeting, he attended his marketing class, but found it hard to focus. His head was still buzzing. It all happened so fast. Was this really happening? How many people go to a meeting just to meet someone, and without even having a job interview, come out with an offer they cannot refuse?

Later, during his drive home, it hit him that prior to meeting Armstrong, he already had two job interviews, one with the professor, and another with Mr. G.

Not only did Mr. G initially interview him for his position at TGW, but Peter frequently met with him at work as well. He often joined several of the employees in a card game at lunch. It was a game where you took tricks, like Hearts. The game allowed an unlimited number of people to play. The employees named the game get the leader.

Mr. G was clearly intent on building rapport and gaining the respect of those over whom he would eventually rule. Initially, he was the manager of the new Systems Department, and Peter reported directly to him. However, within a year and a half he was two levels higher and in the executive office. As one of Peter’s colleagues quipped, I wish I could be on one of those executive training programs like Mr. G.

Near the end of the preceding summer, Mr. G had invited Peter and Penelope over to his home to dine with him and his wife, Marie. The invitation was a surprise, and Peter wondered why he and Penelope would be worthy of such attention. Of course, Peter eagerly accepted the invitation.

Jim and Marie lived in an old but fashionable home on the East side of the city. Jim and Marie escorted Peter and Penelope to a pleasant garden at the rear of the home. They offered them a drink followed by steak tartar, which they boiled in a fondue pot filled with oil, one piece at a time. The leisurely meal afforded plenty of time to talk.

Jim was soft-spoken. Marie said little, letting him take the lead. Although they were in their mid-thirties, they had no children. They learned that Jim and Marie had spent time in South East Asia, that Jim spoke Chinese, and that Marie spoke French. Although Peter was interested in hearing more about their experience abroad, they said very little. Jim seemed to be a very private person, and he directed most of the conversation toward Peter and Penelope. Jim wanted to know if they were planning to have kids, and Peter said they were holding off at least until he finished his degree. Penelope told him about her job as a programmer, and that she wanted the opportunity to work for a while before having kids.

Jim asked Peter what he wanted to do long-term. Peter didn’t have a precise answer for that and said he was still trying to figure that out. However, Peter asked him what he thought the opportunities would be at TGW. Jim acknowledged that there were limited opportunities at TGW. It was a small company and not growing. The few key positions were filled with people who had to die, retire, or quit, before someone could replace them. That led to a discussion about expanding the company, and travel to other parts of the world where they had, or would have, sales offices and joint ventures. Would we consider something like that in the future? Penelope and Peter both agreed that it would be exciting.

At that time, they were flexible and ready to embrace all possible futures. They left having enjoyed the evening but still wondering why they were receiving so much attention. Thinking back on that evening, Peter wondered if Mr. G might have had more in mind than what was apparent.

****

When Peter arrived home from the University that Wednesday night after meeting with Mr. Armstrong, he talked to Penelope. It was late so they talked the next night as well. Peter wanted Penelope to have a say and point out things about which he may not have given enough thought. Although he wanted badly to go, she could have vetoed the offer, and he would have accepted that. However, she saw things the way he did. Financially, it was like winning a lottery.

Who can turn down a chance to increase their annual salary by almost fifty percent for only four weeks of effort? she told him. Peter also considered his responsibility to his country. He had avoided the draft with a student deferment until he started working full-time for TGW. Night school didn’t qualify for a deferment, and his draft board had recently reclassified him as 1-A. If drafted, he would be gone for two years. With this opportunity, he would be reclassified as 2-C, critical skills. Penelope said she would miss him, but only four or five weeks was much better for her than if he were gone for two years. For Peter, it would also be an exciting adventure, and he would be doing something he enjoyed. They agreed that he should say yes to the offer. Peter would leave in four weeks.

On Friday, Peter called Mr. Armstrong and accepted the offer. He talked with Mr. G and thanked him for the opportunity. He co-signed the contract with TGW. He went to the university library and learned all he could about Vietnam, and about the war. He met again with Mr. Armstrong for a briefing. He filled out lots of forms. He packed. He even finished his course work for that semester.

Within two weeks, he received a new draft card with a critical skills deferment, his first-ever passport, and a Top-Secret security clearance (with special provisions). Spring semester at the university would begin soon. He would not be taking any more classes until the fall semester.

4

ARRIVAL

Peter left Rochester early on Friday morning February 10, 1967. It was still dark, and it was cold in Rochester, but Armstrong said it would be hot in Vietnam. He had packed accordingly. Penelope drove him to the airport and let him off at the terminal so he could check in while she parked the car. Peter had a large suitcase in one hand, a briefcase in the other, and a World War II army duffle bag slung across his back. His luggage weighed him down, and he barely managed to get himself to the check-in counter.

The duffle bag had been his father’s bag during World War II. Peter had stuffed it with underwear and anything that would not need ironing. It was about three feet high and had a strap allowing him to sling it over his shoulder. He checked the suitcase and the duffle bag but would carry the briefcase onto the plane.

The briefcase was really an artist’s case, a four-inch thick hard-sided case with a lock. It was large enough to transport computer printouts plus everything that he may need at his new work location. The briefcase contained all his papers having to do with his PEN concept. It also contained a small slide rule, a flowchart template, the official papers that he would need, some toiletries, a sandwich, a fresh shirt, and a change of socks and underwear. In 1967, there were no security lines, so he didn’t have to open his briefcase.

Penelope returned, after parking the car, and they chatted at the gate until it was time to board. Peter removed his coat and left it with her to take back to the car. He would not need it in Vietnam. The two of them kissed and hugged each other good-bye.

Good luck, Peter. I love you.

I love you too, he replied, and followed the crowd across the tarmac and out to the plane.

Getting to Saigon from Rochester, New York was a three-day affair. Mr. Armstrong had pre-arranged his travel reservations and tickets. He took a United Airlines flight to JFK, and another United Airlines flight to San Francisco. Then he spent the night at a local airport hotel that had a shuttle service to and from the airport in San Francisco. Early Saturday morning, he took a commercial Pan American Airways flight to Hong Kong. This was a fourteen-hour flight. After subtracting eight hours of time zones, but then, adding twenty-four hours because of crossing the International Date Line, he arrived in Hong Kong around 1:00 p.m. the next day, which was now Sunday.

Peter found the trip exciting. He had only been out of the country once before, when he and his wife drove across the Canadian border on some back roads from New York State. As a car enthusiast he enjoyed driving fast. What he didn’t realize was that the speed limit signs in Canada were in kilometers, and he had unwittingly exceeded the speed limits. Fortunately, the Canadian police didn’t catch him. But now, he was traveling halfway around the world to a non-English-speaking country. He hoped he would be able to abide by the local laws and customs.

From the air, Hong Kong looked very large, like New York City. It had skyscrapers and buildings with strange shapes, modern for its time. Peter wished he could have spent some time in Hong Kong as he had heard it was a beautiful city to visit. However, an hour in the airport was all he got. His flight to Saigon left Hong Kong around 2:30 p.m. As they took off, an announcement welcomed everyone on board and gave special thanks to the military on board for their patriotism. Peter looked around. Uniformed military personnel filled the plane. He later learned that many were returning from a rest and relaxation leave (R&R). They were all men, except for three women