60 Post-Mortems on Nifty & BankNifty Q3 FY23-24

By Balachandran Viswaram

This book is a compilation of 60 days of technical analysis done on Nifty50 and BankNifty Indices. The period under study is October to December i.e. Quarter 3 of Financial Year 2023-24.
The strategies deployed, their outcomes, corrections & and feedback are captured in each day's work. Almost all the strategies are reaction-based rather than prediction-based. Based on the analysis a possible best-case and worst-case scenario is outlined for the next day's price action.

• Language: English
• Publisher: viswaram
• Release date: Jan 10, 2024
• ISBN: 9798224848973

Balachandran Viswaram

I always wanted to become an author after reading my first non academic book in 2007. Not just to make a living out of it, but as a means to express my feelings & emotions to the world. Videos & Animations might steal the show, score over the written universe in the short term. But I still believe authentic & original written content will be preserved for the next 2000 years. When I started writing in 2008 via a weekly newsletter/blog the biggest challenge I faced was to insert related images that went along with the story. These days we get lot of stock pictures for the same - that does not mean the writing has become super easy. In fact people have lesser attention span these days than 15 years ago. These days the financial markets interest me and my writing is specifically into this niche. Mostly with banking, options trading & macro economics. A doctorate in economics is something I am looking to achieve in this decade.

Book preview

60 Post-Mortems on Nifty & BankNifty

Q3 FY23-24

Compilation of 60 daily technical analysis done for Nifty50 and BankNifty in the period Oct to Dec 2023-24

BALACHANDRAN VISWARAM

Copyright © 2023-24, Balachandran Viswaram

All Rights Reserved.

This book has been self-published with all reasonable efforts taken to make the material error-free by the author. No part of this book shall be used, reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the author, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews.

The Author of this book is solely responsible and liable for its content including but not limited to the views, representations, descriptions, statements, information, opinions and references [Content]. The Content of this book shall not constitute or be construed or deemed to reflect the opinion or expression of the Publisher or Editor. Neither the Publisher nor Editor endorse or approve the Content of this book or guarantee the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the Content published herein and do not make any representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose. The Publisher and Editor shall not be liable whatsoever for any errors, omissions, whether such errors or omissions result from negligence, accident, or any other cause or claims for loss or damages of any kind, including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage arising out of use, inability to use, or about the reliability, accuracy or sufficiency of the information contained in this book. 

Contents

What to Expect From This Book

28th Dec ’23 — New ATH on the last day of the Quarter — PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

27th Dec ’23 - Nifty & BankNifty stance changed to Bullish - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

26th Dec ’23 - Positive Day with a rising VIX - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

22nd Dec ’23 - Nifty’s levels today are skewed by NiftyIT - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

21st Dec ’23 - Nifty50 Retraces 50% of Yesterday’s Fall - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

20th Dec ’23 - 500pts Nifty Reversal Day - Stance is Bearish Now - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

19th Dec ’23 - Nifty adds a NEW ATH to its kitty - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

18th Dec ’23 - Our market takes a pause - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

15th Dec ’23 - 273pts massive upmove - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

14th Dec ’23 - Markets break out yet again! - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

13th Dec ’23 - Stance change to neutral worked perfectly - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

12th Dec ’23 - We have a change in stance today! - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

11th Dec ’23 - No special triggers, just status-quo - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

8th Dec ’23 - RBI’s meet clears the air for banks - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

7th Dec ’23 - Should I change my stance to neutral? - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

6th Dec ’23 - Another Gap-up Opening - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

5th Dec ’23 - Switching to 63mts time frame- PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

4th Dec ’23 - 418pts breakout on election results - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

1st Dec ’23 - Nifty on the cusp of Breakout?  - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

30th Nov ’23 - Good and Volatile Monthly Expiry - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

29th Nov ’23 - The rocket just took off - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

28th Nov ’23 - Finally a breakout from 19875 - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

24th Nov ’23 - Another Flat Day! - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

23rd Nov ’23 - BN breaks out from a resistance - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

22nd Nov ’23 - An Intraday W Pattern - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

21st Nov ’23 - 19776 is a strong SR zone - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

20th Nov ’23 - A Gradual Slipping Market - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

17th Nov ’23 - Nifty stays steady despite deep cuts on BankNifty - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

16th Nov ’23 - A Breakaway momentum hard stopped by RBI loan news - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

15th Nov ’23 - US CPI plays spoilsport - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

13th Nov ’23 - What went up during Diwali, came down equally - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

10th Nov ’23 - Diwali Buyers are here already? - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

9th Nov ’23 - The opening candle surprises Again - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

8th Nov ’23 - Nifty hits the resistance, Going Neutral - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

7th Nov ’23 - The 11.40 candle may have a story to tell - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

6th Nov ’23 - Show of strength today - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

3rd Nov ’23 - The gap-up gave the trend change indication - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

2nd Nov ’23 - When NEWS flows, technical analysis goes for a spin - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

1st Nov ’23 - Some weakness still persisting - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

31st Oct ’23 - Unusual Opening 5mts Candle - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

30th Oct ’23 - Nifty Shows Strength, but bullish only above 19310 - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

27th Oct ’23 - A Day to Rest & Reload - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

26th Oct ’23 - Nifty hits the jackpot of 18880 - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

25th Oct ’23 - When will the 18880 level get broken?  - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

23rd Oct ’23 - The perfect day to break 2 supports - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

20th Oct ’23 - Contrasting Trade Signals by N50 and BN today - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

19th Oct ’23 - How do we recover from a Gap-Down Like that? - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

18th Oct ’23 - Vertical fall from a strong zone - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

17th Oct ’23 - Nifty Breaches Resistance Zone - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

16th Oct ’23 - Flattish Day with no flavor - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

13th Oct ’23 - Unseen Double V shape - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

12th Oct ’23 - A perfect Flat day of trade - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

11th Oct ’23 - Cuts Through the Resistance, More power to the bulls! - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

10th Oct ’23 - India sends 5 white soldiers to the war  - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

9th Oct ’23 - War breaks out in Middle-East, Sharp change in Global Macro - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

6th Oct ’23 - Show of Strength, Change in Sentiment - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

5th Oct ’23 - Gap-up takes out my stoploss - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

4th Oct ’23 - Super recovery in last 90mts - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

3rd Oct ’23 - The opening 5mts candle has a story to tell - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

29th Sep ’23 - Convincing Reversal and then a strong fall - PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

What to Expect From This Book

This is my fourth book on the Post-Mortem series on Nifty & BankNifty. This book is a compilation of the technical analysis carried out on both the indices (Nifty & BankNifty) in the period October to December 2023-24. The earlier versions got mixed reviews from the readers, a few of them directly messaged me saying the content was hard to comprehend. In this latest version, I have incorporated those suggestions and hope you will find it better to read and understand.

The daily analysis also known as Post-Mortem is prepared and published on my blog www.viswaram.com after the close of market hours. It is an attempt to decode, and decipher why and how the markets moved. The reason I started to pen down the analysis is to improve my trading acumen. I strongly suggest you maintain a daily trading journal and capture the important price actions/triggers that happen every day. When you sit down to write, the emotions will be so high that the rationale for the trades may be cloudy and unclear. 

You will understand how emotions got in the way and forced you to take a wrong trade when you read your work say after a month or two. That is because - after a while, you would have forgotten the mental state you were in during the trade, and numbers are all that remains.

The basic concepts in options trading are straightforward, but the choice of strategy and presence of mind during execution is entirely different. For example, a stance of bullish means you could either

Buy a CALL option

Sell a PUT option

Deploy a bull ratio spread

Deploy a PUT credit spread

Deploy a CALL debit spread

The above 5 are the most straightforward strategies you could think of for a bullish move. The most simple is undoubtedly the first one - buy a CALL option. Since directional trading is an integral part of my Post-Mortem report, do not assume that a bullish stance is always buying a CALL option. More often than not, I prefer to use the ratio strategy that combines the best of the worlds - risk & reward.

Charts play an unavoidable role in technical analysis. Some say that technical analysis does not work and is just a waste of time. We all know technical analysis is the concept of predicting future price moves by looking at historical data. Almost all data-centric work requires historical analysis for modeling. The most common macro variables like GDP, Inflation, and Monetary Policies depend on past data to forecast the future. 

Actual technical analysis is more of an art than science as the price has an emotional tag to it. People make decisions when the price is at an inflection point. The same price could have a different feeling at a different time. For eg: on Day1 you might think XYZ stock is a buy at Rs650, but on Day15 you might not want to buy it even at Rs600. This makes the interpretation of the results quite tricky. Analyst1 could have a buy rating and Analyst2 could have a sell rating for the same stock at the same price at the same time. So it all depends on how you interpret the data and move forward.

On the time frame part, I normally use a 4mts, 16mts & 63mts candle on TradingView. The reason I use 63mts TF is to have equal-weight candles every day. 16mts and 4mts are just the 63mts divide by 4 & 16 respectively. Even if you find my charts quite different from yours, request you draw similar support/resistance lines, trend-lines, double-tops, double-bottoms and evaluate the results.

Lastly, I have provided the TV chart link just below the image in case you wish to zoom in and analyze it more judiciously.

Happy Reading!

28th Dec ’23 — New ATH on the last day of the Quarter — PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty

Nifty Quarterly Analysis

Nifty has gained 2263pts ~ 11.6% in the 3rd Quarter of FY2023-24. Almost on 9 particular days, we hit new all-time highs.

Nifty Monthly Analysis

Surprisingly 70% of the gains for the Q3 came in the December