Water Scarcity: Impacts on Western Agriculture

By Ernest A. Engelbert and Ann Foley Scheuring

Agricultural production in the semi-arid western United States is dependent on irrigation. Population in the seventeen western states has been and is expected to continue increasing. Groundwater levels are declining throughout the region with long-term pumping and increased demands leading to greater pumping lifts and costs, land subsidence, and salt water intrusion into groundwater basins. Construction and operation costs of future water development in these states will be great, both in dollars and in economic and social effects. Competition for the available water supply due to increased demands in both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors continues to increase. Although considerable attention has been given to some aspects of declining water supplies for irrigated agriculture in particular areas, this is the first volume to adress in a comprehensive manner the effects of scarce water supplies on agricultural production and the resultant impacts at regional, state, national, and international levels. Over seventy experts, representing all the major physical and social sciences as well as industries examine the issues and conclude that important decisions must be made at all levels of government and private enterprise if the prosperity and quality of life in the region are to be maintained. Specific technical, economic, institutional, and managerial solutions are recommended to forestall an impending water crisis. All segments of society--agriculturalists, urbanites, food processors, land developers, environmentalists, and others--have major stakes in the outcome of any action for future water supplies and distribution in the West. This title is part of UC Press's Voices Revived program, which commemorates University of California Press's mission to seek out and cultivate the brightest minds and give them voice, reach, and impact. Drawing on a backlist dating to 1893, Voices Revived makes high-quality, peer-reviewed scholarship accessible once again using print-on-demand technology. This title was originally published in 1984.

• Language: English
• Publisher: University of California Press
• Release date: Nov 10, 2023
• ISBN: 9780520310926

Book preview

WATER SCARCITY

Impacts on Western Agriculture

WATER SCARCITY

Impacts on Western Agriculture

Edited by

ERNESTA. ENGELBERT

with

ANN FOLEY SCHEURING

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRESS

BERKELEY, LOS ANGELES, LONDON

University of California Press

Berkeley and Los Angeles, California

University of California Press, Ltd.

London, England

© 1984 by

The Regents of the University of California

ISBN: 0-520-05300-1 (cloth)

0-520-05313-3 (paper)

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 80-048702

Printed in the United States of America

123456789

The Directorate on Arid Zone Ecosystems

of the United States Man and the Biosphere Program

Organizing Committee

Robert M. Hagan — Chairman, Conference Organizing Committee Professor of Water Science and Extension Water Specialist Department of Land, Air and Water Resources

University of California

Davis, California 95616

Henry P. Caulfield, Jr.

Professor, Department of

Political Science

Colorado State University

Fort Collins, Colorado

John A. Dracup

Professor, School of Engineering and Applied Science

University of California

Los Angeles, California

Harold E. Dregne

Director, International Center for

Arid and Semi-Arid Land Studies and Hom Distinguished Professor of Soil Science

Texas Technological University

Lubbock, Texas

Donald Hardesty

Professor, Department of Anthropology

University of Nevada

Reno, Nevada

Charles Hutchinson

Director, Arizona Remote Sensing Center

Office of Arid Lands Studies

University of Arizona

Tucson, Arizona

Douglas L. Johnson

Associate Professor, Graduate

School of Geography

Clark University

Worcester, Massachusetts

Jack D. Johnson

Director, Office of Arid Lands Studies and Adjunct Professor, Department of Soil, Water and Engineering

University of Arizona

Tucson, Arizona

Michael E. Norvelle

Project Director, Cooperative Arid

Lands Agriculture Research Program

San Diego State University Foundation

San Diego, California

Eleonora Sabadell

Program Associate, Program of Policy

Studies in Science and Technology

The George Washington University

Washington, D.C.

Gary D. Weatherford

Co-Director, Water Program

Center for Natural Resource Studies

John Muir Institute

Berkeley, California, and

Visiting Professor, School of Law

University of Santa Clara

Santa Clara, California

Robert A. Young

Professor, Department of Economics

Colorado State University

Fort Collins, Colorado

California Advisory Committee

Raymond H. Coppock Communications Specialist Cooperative Extension University of California, Davis

John Cummins

Director, California Policy Seminar Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley

Noreen G. Dowling

Director, Public Service Research and Dissemination Program and Lecturer, Department of Applied Behavioral Sciences

University of California, Davis

Ernest A. Engelbert

Professor of Public Administration University of California, Los Angeles

J. Herbert Snyder

Director, Water Resources Center and Professor of Agricultural Economics

University of California, Davis

L.T. Wallace

Economist, Cooperative Extension

University of California, Berkeley

William W. Wood., Jr.

Program Director, Agricultural Economics and Community Resource Development

Cooperative Extension

University of California, Riverside

SPONSORS

Organized By:

The Directorate on Arid Zone Ecosystems of

The United States Man and the Biosphere Program

Co-Sponsored By:

University of California

Cooperative Extension

Institute of Governmental Studies

Public Service Research and Dissemination Program Water Resources Center

University of Arizona College of Agriculture

University of Nevada

University of Nevada at Reno

Desert Research Institute

Clark University

Colorado State University

John Muir Institute

Center for Natural Resource Studies

San Diego State University Foundation

Texas Technological University

International Center for Arid and Semi-Arid Land Studies

With Funding By:

U.S. Man and the Biosphere Program

U.S. Department of the Interior

Office of Water Resources Technology

Bureau of Reclamation

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Science and Education Administration

Soil Conservation Service

U.S. Water Resources Council

University of California Cooperative Extension BankAmerica Foundation

Farm Foundation

Farm and Industrial Equipment Institute

First Interstate Bank of Arizona

First Interstate Bank of California

First Interstate Bank of Fort Collins The Ford Foundation

Security Pacific Foundation

PREFACE

This publication is the product of an interdisciplinary conference on water problems in the western United States held in Monterey, California, in September, 1982. The primary purpose of the conference and this volume has been to assess the impacts on local, state, national and international communities of limited water supplies for agriculture in the semiarid West. This vast area of the nation is faced with important decisions in the management of declining water supplies if a prosperous agricultural economy is to be sustained.

Planning for the conference began in 1978 under the sponsorship of the Directorate on Arid Zone Ecosystems, a part of the United States Man and the Biosphere Program. The Man and the Biosphere Program is an international effort under the auspices of UNESCO to study the relationships of man to changing environments in various regions of the world. Because the future of western agriculture in the United States has significance for the economies and semiarid regions of other countries, the Organizing Committee of the conference concluded that a careful analysis of what was happening in the American West would have international interest and relevance.

The conference and this volume represent an interdisciplinary effort to deal with the subject from both a natural and social science perspective. The Organizing Committee identified the topics and invited over seventy specialists from diverse disciplines representing the academic community, private industry, and the public sector to prepare papers and discussants’ comments for the conference.

Over two hundred persons participated in four intensive days of presentations and discussions of the papers. The participants represented a broad spectrum of experience, views and interests, including farmers, businessmen, bankers, planners, analysts, environmentalists, community leaders, elected officials, and representatives of other concerned organizations. They reviewed and critiqued the prepared presentations and made substantial contributions to the analyses.

Following the conference the authors were given the opportunity to revise their papers and comments, and, in some cases, to include overlooked but relevant points. This volume is the combined product of the revised papers and conference input. To provide integration of subject matter, the papers have been organized under section and chapter headings and placed in appropriate sequence.

No one who participated in this educational undertaking would conclude that all topics involving water and agriculture in the semiarid West have been adequately covered. Indeed, as both the Introduction and the Summary show, many issues remain unresolved. However, the Organizing Committee believes that a searching focus has been given to this subject and public attention called to what is becoming an increasingly critical aspect of the nation’s economy. Thus we hope that this volume will be informative and useful for everyone who is concerned with future water supplies for agriculture in the West.

Robert M. Hagan

Chairman, Organizing Committee

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Many organizations and individuals contributed to the planning and organization of the conference and publication on Limited Water for Agriculture in the West: No Simple Solutions. Grateful appreciation for their assistance is made to the following groups and persons:

• Sponsors who provided financial, facilitative and moral support which made this activity possible.

• Members of the Organizing Committee who gave very generously of their time and services in defining the scope of the conference, in selecting the topics to be discussed and in designating the authors and conference participants.

• The California Advisory Committee which assisted with the planning and implementation of conference logistics and arrangements.

• The authors and discussants who accepted defined writing assignments and who cooperated in developing an integrated symposium.

• Conference participants for their review of the essays and their useful critiques in the conference deliberations.

• Jack D. Johnson, the initial chairman of the Directorate on Arid Zone Ecosystems, who continued to provide enthusiastic support for this venture as a member of the Organizing Committee.

• Robert M. Hagan for his outstanding leadership and effort as chairman of the Directorate and of the conference Organizing Committee, and for continuously infusing all of his associates with the significance of this educational undertaking.

• Marcia Kreith for exceptional service as administrative coordinator of the conference, a person who deserves high praise for seeing that all activities were implemented on schedule.

• Raymond H. Coppock for proriding expert informational services throughout the planning and implementation of the conference.

• Noreen Dowling whose administrative talents and communication skills were helpful in many ways.

• The staff of the University of California, Davis, who provided invaluable assistance at various stages of this undertaking, notably Betty Esky of the Department of Land, Air and Water Resources for secretarial services, Marian Cain, Kelly Camer and Paula Sullivan of the Public Service Research and Dissemination Program for administrative and secretarial services, together with Patricia Farid of the Water Resources Center, for assistance in the preparation and publication of this volume.

The Editors

CONTENTS 1

PREFACE

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

CONTENTS 1

Introduction NO SIMPLE SOLUTIONS by Ann F. Scheuring, Ernest A. Engelbert, and Robert M. Hagan

Chapter 1 PHYSICAL LIMITATIONS OF WATER RESOURCES by John Bredehoeft

Chapter 2 LEGAL-INSTITUTIONAL LIMITATIONS ON WATER USE by Gary Weatherford and Helen Ingram

Chapter 3 COMPETITION FOR WATER by Kenneth D. Frederick and Allen V. Kneese

Chapter 4 DEVELOPING NEW WATER SUPPLIES by Harvey O. Banks, Jean O. Williams, and Joe B. Harris

Chapter 5 INCREASING EFFICIENCY OF NONAGRICULTURAL WATER USE by J. Ernest Flack

Chapter 6 COPING WITH SALINITY by Jan van Schilfgaarde and J.D. Rhoades

Chapter 7 IMPROVING CROP MANAGEMENT by Ronald D. Lacewell and Glenn S. Collins

Chapter 8 IMPROVING LAND AND WATER USE PRACTICES by Norman J. Rosenberg

Chapter 9 IMPROVING IRRIGATION SYSTEMS† by Marvin E. Jensen

Chapter 10 LOCAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS by Robert A Young ***

Chapter 11 NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICE IMPACTS by Earl O. Heady

Chapter 12 IMPACTS UPON BUSINESS COMMUNITIES by Vernon M. Crowder

Chapter 13 SOCIAL IMPACTS ON RURAL COMMUNITIES by Albert Schaffer and Ruth C. Schaffer

Chapter 14 SOCIAL IMPACTS UPON URBAN COMMUNITIES by Lay James Gibson

Chapter 15 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS by B.A. Stewart and Wyatte Harman

Chapter 16 WHAT FARMERS CAN DO FOR THEMSELVES by Cecil Miller, Jr. and Bartley P. Cardon

Chapter 17 WHAT FINANCIAL AND BUSINESS INTERESTS CAN DO by A.L. Black

Chapter 18 WATER RIGHTS AND MARKET TRANSFERS12 by F. Lee Brown and Charles T. DuMars

Chapter 19 ONE STATE’S STRATEGY FOR PUTTING WATER TO BENEFICIAL USE by Ted Schwinden

Chapter 20 FEDERAL WATER POLICIES AND IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE by Garrey E. Carruthers, Thomas G. Bahr, Herbert H. Fullerton, and Norman H. Starler

Chapter 21 PROBLEMS, FINDINGS, AND ISSUES by Gilbert F. White

CONTRIBUTORS

INDEX

Introduction

NO SIMPLE SOLUTIONS

by Ann F. Scheuring, Ernest A. Engelbert,

and Robert M. Hagan

We are approaching the end of an era in the West. As with most such transitions, it is a period of some confusion and conflict.

The era in question is that of seemingly unlimited western water development. We have begun to realize that there are indeed limits to the water resource base, that we will have to learn to live within them, and that we must come to agreement on priorities for use of water supplies in the future. The subject of this book is whether and how irrigated agriculture in the West will be affected by these new perceptions and changing conditions in water management.

Water is the lifeblood of the West as we know it today. Much of the semiarid western landscape has been altered over the past century by human manipulation of scattered natural water supplies. In many locations irrigated farming has replaced native vegetation and dryland ranching, bringing new productivity to the land and improving local economies. With increasingly uncertain outlook for water supplies in the future, however, new adjustments may have to be made within the agricultural sector. Plans for further expansion of irrigation may have to be cancelled and some land now under irrigation may revert to semiarid conditions, unless accommodations to the increasing constraints on water supply can be made. Both competition for limited resources and changing viewpoints on social utility challenge former assumptions about the best use for water.

Depending on which groups of citizens stand to lose or gain from change, the viewpoints they express are varied and sometimes contradictory. Where life is comfortable, people are apt to rationalize and seek technical fixes in the attempt to maintain the status quo. Others struggle to achieve a greater share of resources and degree of equity by negotiation or legislation. Change is not easy, but in the period of adjustment in water policy which lies inevitably before us, special-interest clashes and philosophic disagreements must be tempered by hope for reasonable and far-sighted action. Water issues in the West encompass such large areas and affect so many millions of people, that programs and policies must be truly collaborative to be acceptable.

There are no simple solutions—only intelligent choices.

WHAT IS THE WEST?

As defined in this volume, the West consists of those 17 states west of the 98th meridian, from the Canadian to the Mexican borders. This is half of the United States in size, an immense and varied region, with its own geographic peculiarities, history, and ambiance.

The West is no single place: it means different things to different people, depending on where they live—rolling plains; thundering rivers; rocky canyons; windswept salt flats; barren volcanic plateaus; marshy swamps; arid deserts; verdant valleys; forested mountains; ocean surf; shabby towns; comfortable cities; sophisticated metropolises. To describe the West in its physical entirety is difficult, but let us briefly try.

The great green checkerboard of the agricultural Midwest gives way very gradually to the drier Great Plains. The Great Plains states include North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Relatively thinly populated, with much distance between towns, these states are largely agricultural and produce huge grain crops.

The Great Plains states slope upward to the Rockies. The regular geometry of cultivated square and rectangular fields gradually becomes browner, larger in scale, and irregularly contoured in the transition into the Rocky Mountain states of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico. In these states the mountainous backbone of North America trends south-to-northwest from Mexico to Canada. Only a handful of cities appears in the immense mountainous landscape, and agriculture is limited to river valleys.

Spurs and subranges of the Rockies continue west into the states of Idaho, Utah, and Arizona, merging gradually into the Great Western Desert—the high arid plateaus and salt flats of southwestern Idaho, western Utah, all of Nevada, and much of Arizona. In northwestern Arizona the Grand Canyon slashes through the high desert, cut by the Colorado River over eons of geologic time. Much of this four-state area is still relative wasteland, though scattered green settlements dot the occasional waterways.

On their eastern borders the Pacific Coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California are also part of the semiarid western desert, but these states’ climate is transformed by the Sierra Nevada and the Coast Ranges, as well as by the Pacific Ocean. Western Washington and Oregon and northern California are moist, mountainous, and thickly forested; rainfall and snowpack can be heavy. South of the Cascades and west of the Sierra, the 400-mile-long Central Valley of California displays a rich and varied agriculture, while most of the state’s famous cities cluster along the coast. Southern California is, again, mostly desert except for coastal basins and valleys.

Thus the West consists of several distinct major climatic zones, with varied topography, soils, and precipitation. With the exception of relatively humid western Washington and Oregon and northwestern California, however, most of the West is arid or semiarid, registering on average less than 20 inches of rainfall per year. It is a region which characteristically depends on irrigation for its agricultural productivity or is dry-farmed—and where, to meet agriculture’s needs, the most intensive water developments in the world have taken place.

History: An Epoch of Development

It was the fact of aridity, coupled with the immense distances and rough terrain, that discouraged early settlement of the region. Though Lewis and Clark explored the upper reaches of the West as early as 1805, only a relatively few hardy pioneers pushed through the trials and terrors of wagon train travel in the first half of the 19th century. The California Gold Rush in 1849, however, set off an explosion in population movement, and the following decades saw settlement throughout much of the West.

The Homestead Act of 1862 was intended to aid settlement of the U.S. by offering chunks of the public domain nearly free to anyone who would make a serious effort to develop a farm or ranch. In the semiarid West, however, it was soon learned that 160 acres—the original amount of land allowed for individual homesteads—was hardly sufficient. Subsequently the law was amended; in certain areas a homestead claim could be up to 640 acres, or a square mile, because of the low grazing capacity and limited agricultural possibilities of water-short country.

By 1900, aided by the expansion of railroads, most of the West was at least thinly populated. The image of the Old West changed as its economy developed from mining and early livestock-grain agriculture to a more diversified base. As mining became industrialized, prospectors became figures of the past. In such states as Wyoming, Oklahoma, and California, oil was discovered in huge deposits, bringing a new kind of wealth. Water development brought in irrigation, changing farming patterns. \

The Depression impelled many dustbowl migrants to seek employment in the West. World War II also brought large numbers of people to the West for military reasons, and many of them remained or returned after the war to take advantage of the climate, the lifestyle, and the opportunities they saw. New industries began to populate the western states, particularly entertainment, communications, and aerospace in Southern California and high technology and electronics in other areas.

More than a place, more than a history, the West also represents a mind-set. In comparison with the humid eastern seaboard and fertile Midwest, the early West was not an easy place to settle. Perhaps it took special kinds of people to move into a raw, often hostile wilderness. Western pioneers were sometimes dreamers, sometimes renegades from polite society; but they saw opportunities for enterprise in a landscape that offered wealth for those who could take advantage of it. Speculators and ambitious settlers recognized chances for development of natural resources through ingenuity and emerging technology. Gold miners in California extracted billions of dollars in gold using extensive flumes for sluicing and hydraulic hoses for blasting away earth from mineral deposits. The Mormons in Utah were among the first to build networks of canals for irrigating farms wrested from the desert.

Public policy also encouraged settlement, development, and even exploitation. Where water was in short supply, private efforts at impoundments and canals were supplemented by public funding after the turn of the century. Local water districts brought water consumers together for development of resources through taxation. Sometimes decades in advance of their construction, grand plans were suggested for state and federal dams on the Missouri, Arkansas, and Pecos rivers of the Great Plains; for the Colorado of the Southwest; for the Columbia of the Northwest; and for the Sacramento and San Joaquin valley watersheds in California. Boulder Dam, later called Hoover, harnessed the Colorado River in 1936, and Bonneville Dam spanned the Columbia in 1937. In Montana, Fort Peck Dam controlled the upper Missouri River in 1940. California’s Central Valley Project completed Shasta Dam in 1944; Garrison Dam in North Dakota was finished in 1960; and the California State Water Project brought additional irrigation and power to California starting with Oroville Dam on the Feather River in 1968.

These gigantic dams and canals, pumps and pipelines to store and transfer water, are a symbol of today’s West. They stand as monuments to human ambition, in a remarkable blending of engineering and socio-economic vision. Where cattle and sheep and dryland grain were once the agricultural mode, some western states have diversified into row and vegetable crops, orchards, vineyards, and a host of specialty crops. None of this would have been possible without irrigation. In 1977 the 17 western states had 49 million acres of irrigated land, or 85 percent of all irrigated land in the U.S., and accounted for 91 percent of all water used for irrigation in the nation. Massive interbasin water transfers are a way of life in parts of the West.

Irrigated agriculture produces a great deal of income. California alone, for example, has led the nation in cash farm receipts for more than 30 consecutive years. The state earned about $14 billion in revenues from agriculture in 1981, or about 10 percent of national gross cash receipts from farming. California produces more than 200 different agricultural commodities, many of them grown nowhere else in the nation and in few other places in the world (almonds, artichokes, Brussels sprouts, nectarines, olives, prunes, walnuts, to name a few). Approximately 30 percent of California’s total agricultural revenue is now earned in export markets, accounting for nearly 10 percent of total U.S. agricultural exports in dollar volume. And it is the 8.5 million acres of irrigated California farmland which produces the bulk of California’s farm income.

A New Era

Why does it now appear that the West is approaching a new era? Resource development over the last century has resulted in a dynamic economy. What signs suggest that this era of development is ending? Western states are still very young historically—Arizona was the last continental state to be created, in 1914. With the vast open spaces and resources yet remaining in the West, one might think that there are potentially many years of development still ahead. There are, in fact, planned stages of such massive undertakings as the Missouri River Basin Project and California’s State Water Project not yet under construction.

The physical facts, however, are plain: almost all the potentially good agricultural land close to water supplies has already been developed. Moreover, most of the readily available water sources of the West have been accessed; certainly all of the relatively inexpensive sources have already been tapped. Few rivers are without dams, and most of the major rivers have whole series of them. Reservoirs, giant and small, dot the western states. In addition, groundwater supplies in some areas are being measurably depleted as ever deeper wells draw up water from aquifers. In some areas land subsidence signals serious sinking of the water table. In certain locales water quality has also become a problem, with increased salinity of supplies or deterioration through chemical and other pollution. Thus even the same quantity of water supply becomes less usable for former purposes. In some cases stream diversions or impoundments have destroyed or severely damaged formerly abundant natural wildlife habitat and fisheries.

In addition, economic balances are changing. We have had clear warnings of coming energy shortages. Given our addiction to massive consumption of fossil fuels, energy equations for pumping water will change radically as such fuels begin to run out. Construction and development costs have soared over the decades, and it is likely that even where new dams and storage projects have been considered technically feasible, they may not be affordable.

Social viewpoints are also changing. Agriculture may once have been the hub upon which western economies turned, but as areas diversify, competition between uses for water increases. Industry has need for water in manufacturing, for cleansing, and for power; commercial fisheries and forestry require water to sustain their natural base; cities demand water for residential and municipal purposes; and recreationists value such water-related amenities as boating, swimming, and sport fishing.

Nor is economic competition the whole story. U.S. society has seen the rise of what is termed the conservation ethic, under which the natural environment is valued as much for itself as for its exploitable potential. Some citizens protest what they perceive as the narrow view that a resource has value only insofar as it can be made productive for human purposes. They argue that biologic diversity and aesthetic values must be safeguarded for future generations; that every stream need not be dammed, every acre planted, every drop of water used.

Thus we find ourselves at a turning point, and it is not clear how rapidly we will change course. We know, however, that our course will change. The question is, to what extent will we choose the direction?

ISSUES AND CHOICES

At issue in this book is whether irrigated agriculture in the West as we know it today is truly in jeopardy—and whether, after all, it matters.

We know some things, and can guess at others:

1) In some areas of the West it has taken a massive public investment to bring surface water onto arid lands which could otherwise not support modern agriculture—and the subsidy continues in the form of reduced water prices for irrigation.

2) In several areas of the West groundwater supplies are being depleted, endangering the future viability of farming communities.

3) Agricultural irrigation now accounts for about 85 percent of developed water put to use in such states as California, but increasing demands for water for other purposes will in some regions of the West cut into agriculture’s current supplies.

4) Water quality is deteriorating in some areas, soil quality in others. Salinization, for example, presently affects large acreages. One answer to salination is to build drains and use more water for flushing salts away, but this requires both sufficient water and adequate engineering, and is costly. Another reaction to the problem is simply to abandon the land because it is too expensive to reclaim.

5) The outlook for developing significant new surface water supplies to meet increasing demands is questionable, given limited sites for development, soaring construction costs, and voter skepticism.

6) Certain peripheral effects related to use of water for irrigation (including loss of fish and wildlife, increased erosion, pollution from agricultural chemicals in runoff, etc.) suggest that long-term adjustments in water use may be necessary.

7) Long-range data on climatic cycles indicate that recent decades may have been unusually moist in the West, and that extended periods of drought may lie ahead. Thus even our present estimate of water supplies may be more sanguine than history warrants.

Such facts and reasonable guesses would indicate that western agriculture is, if not in jeopardy, slated for some considerable changes in future. It is clear that local circumstances vary considerably, and that different areas will have different problems and pressures. But overall it seems fair to say that irrigated agriculture in the West may not be totally sustainable under its present arrangements. We may indeed find that the blooming of the desert was, in some cases, an exciting but temporary phenomenon. Already in a few places abandoned cropland gives mute testimony to past doomed efforts at cultivation.

Does this matter? Is it important that present-day irrigated agriculture in the West be saved? Are there, in fact, ways to moderate trends and stave off local crises?

The first and second questions are matters of economic and social judgment. Western agriculture contributes significantly to the nation’s food and fiber supply, and to the U.S. balance of payments in world markets. Nevertheless, the West is only part of the larger nation; and if one production region should fail, another may take up the slack. According to some observers, the primary U.S. agricultural problem today is over-supply, not insufficiency. But today’s balance of supply and demand is not necessarily that of the 21st century—and national and world populations are growing.

Usually discussions of the importance of agriculture are couched in economic terms, but a sociological dimension also needs recognition. Part of the ambiance of the West is its farming and ranching base. Deterioration or destruction of that base might alter the very character of the region. Again, this is a matter of judgment: does it matter? Many civilizations as well as regional cultures have come and gone. Is the West in its present condition uniquely worth supporting? Is the way of life in the West—which many have admired—one which ought to be preserved?

The third question asks what options may be available to deal with pressures on agricultural water supplies. These options may be divided generally into four categories: technical and scientific innovations; management strategies; institutional arrangements; and modification of lifestyle. These are not mutually exclusive, and may in fact be used in many combinations, depending on water use situations. We rank them here in order from the local and specific (on-farm practices) to the very broad and general (societal change).

Technical and scientific innovations. These may include improved irrigation technologies, better plant breeding for drought resistance, precise monitoring of water needs, systematic groundwater replenishment, and other kinds of water-using and water-conserving techniques. Advances in science and technology can be a major factor in ameliorating the consequences of water shortages throughout the West.

Management strategies. Recent years have shown that agriculture can pursue a variety of management strategies to achieve more efficient water use. These strategies include appropriate use of crops, careful water scheduling and recycling, effective employment of machinery, good economic and financial determinations, and all other aspects of farm decision making involving land and water practices.

Institutional arrangements. Realignment and reorganization of existing institutions dealing with water, both public and private, may be helpful in cutting waste and in encouraging collaborative overall efficiency. Building flexibility into institutional arrangements may also help them respond to local needs more effectively.

Modification of lifestyle. Economic sustainability may ultimately have to be based on lower economic expectations, both among individuals and in society at large. If nonrenewable resources are being depleted and even renewable resources seem under great pressure, one logical answer to the problem may be for consumers to be satisfied with less consumption. An exploitative tendency can be replaced with a philosophy of stewardship, though this may take years of experience and education. Social equity also demands commitment to reasonable goals by all citizens, not just by some.

Underlying any options for action to address water problems are certain basic philosophic principles, all of them related, which can be mentioned here only as questions for public debate in a democratic society:

• What balance between economic laissez-faire and institutional regulation is desirable?

• What balance between local control and centralized decision-making is best?

• Is incrementalism or long-range planning preferable?

Decisions for action (or nonaction) will inevitably reflect answers to these central questions.

AN OVERVIEW OF THIS VOLUME

This book has been designed to discuss the western water situation from multiple perspectives. Water policy is by its nature complex and must be approached from several points of view. This book therefore attempts to review economic and social as well as scientific and technical information relevant to the assessment of desirable policy. Each main chapter is accompanied by commentaries which provide additional information or suggest other facets of the subject under discussion.

Part I provides an overview of the facts and conditions of water availability in the semiarid West, first from the hydrological perspective and then from institutional and economic perspectives. Chapter 1 gives information on precipitation, streamflows, and important aquifers in the West, and identifies areas where water supplies appear critical. Chapter 2 describes water law and institutions which govern water allocation. This chapter suggests that many western states will have to make some changes in legal and institutional arrangements to achieve greater efficiency in water use and management. Chapter 3 reviews trends in competition for water among economic sectors. Many areas of the West face shifts in water use from one industrial sector to another; this will have significant impact upon local economies, particularly agricultural communities.

Part II consists of six chapters describing possible alternatives for satisfying water demands by western agriculture. Chapter 4 explores the alternatives for developing new water supplies to meet increasing demands. It concludes that the opportunities for large scale augmentation of present supplies are limited and that no significant technological breakthroughs are in sight. Chapter 5 examines the possibilities for increasing the efficiency of nonagricultural water use. While some savings in urbanindustrial uses can be made, the gains will not be sufficient to cover the impending shortages in agricultural water needs. Chapter 6 describes research on management strategies to cope with increasing soil salinity in semiarid regions. This increasing salinity, the most extensive irrigation-caused problem faced by western agriculture, will call for a diversity of techniques and controls to improve the situation.

Chapters 7, 8, and 9 review current on-farm methods for improving crop management, land use, and irrigation systems. Chapter 7 discusses crop shifts, use of drought-resistant crops, and improved production techniques. Indications are that in the future farmers will have to modify many present cropping patterns to maintain optimum production with declining water supplies. Chapter 8 reports on proven ways to sustain arid-land agriculture through water harvesting, minimum tillage, snow management, and other practices. An expansion of dry-land agriculture appears inevitable for many areas of the semiarid West.

Chapter 9 treats engineering improvements that can be made in irrigation systems. It concludes that massive changes in conveyance and application systems will provide only a modest increase in net water supply for agriculture.

Part III encompasses six chapters that focus upon the economic, social, and environmental impacts of limited water supplies in the West. Chapter 10 looks at the impacts of less water upon regional and local economies. The evidence suggests that while irrigated agriculture will face some retrenchment, the overall regional economic impacts should be gradual and minor. Chapter 11 analyzes the impending decline of irrigated agriculture in the West from the standpoint of the national and international agricultural commodity systems. Using an econometric model, the chapter concludes that, depending upon economic and institutional variables, reduced water supplies will result in only slight food price increases in both the domestic and international markets. Chapter 12 examines the impact of limited water supplies upon business communities in the West. Increasing water prices will result in a more intensive agriculture, with consequent implications for land values, agribusiness enterprises, banking, and other economic sectors.

Chapter 13 discusses what will happen to rural communities if irrigated agriculture declines. It predicts considerable unemployment and social suffering unless remedial actions are taken to diversify local economies. Chapter 14 looks at the impact of the changing agricultural base upon urban communities. Serious unemployment problems for cities arising from a rural-urban migration are not expected since the numbers of people affected by a declining western agriculture would be relatively small. Chapter 15 considers the environmental consequences of agricultural land going out of production. Reversion of land to dryland farming or to nonuse may, unless corrective actions are taken, result in wind erosion and damage to fish and wildlife habitats.

Part IV outlines some strategies for maintaining agricultural viability in the West with limited water. Chapter 16 describes some specific technical and management solutions to water problems from the farmer’s viewpoint. The chapter shows that farmers can be innovative in adjusting to declining and higher-priced water supplies. Chapter 17 examines how business and financial interests can respond. Emphasis is placed upon the need for more research and development, upon appropriate systems of financing, and upon better cooperation between the business and agricultural sectors. Chapter 18 discusses changes in the system for the allocation and transfer of water supplies. It calls for the evolution of an economic market system for water rights so that water may move to the geographical areas and sectors of most valued use.

Two chapters, 19 and 20, address state and national water policies and practices. The state of Montana’s efforts for water resources management are described in Chapter 19, while Chapter 20 chronicles the shift in federal policy to encourage state initiative and the deregulation of water markets. The complexities of government policies and programs for water resources are reflected in both chapters, and the need for intergovernmental cooperation is emphasized.

Part V provides an integrative summary of the major problems and findings of the preceding chapters. Subjects are interrelated and placed in perspective. Issues which need to be resolved are identified. The challenges facing western water planners are highlighted.

A number of views emerge from this book, although they are not held equally by all authors:

1) There is no immediate national crisis with respect to water for western agriculture.

2) Some regional impacts due to local decreasing water supplies are inevitable, and some local and individual situations could become traumatic.

3) It is difficult to predict when future adverse impacts will become evident because adjustments may still be made.

4) Impacts of declining water supplies may be partly offset by technical and institutional adjustments, some of which are already taking place.

5) Much uncertainty exists because of economic, political, climatic, demographic, and other variables.

6) Assessments of water supply and demand, to some extent circumstantial, may change in the future.

7) Lack of a present crisis does not preclude a future crisis caused by increasing population, growing world food and energy needs, and possible climatic changes.

8) Since the federal role in water policy appears to be decreasing, local and private sector initiative may have to fill in any gaps.

9) Several chapters suggest that allocation and transfer of water might be in some cases appropriately implemented through the marketplace.

These varied views emerging from the chapters suggest how complex and challenging is the subject of water in the West. Future studies and decisions, as our authors remind us, must truly be both interdisciplinary and collaborative.

THE FUTURE OF WATER IN THE WEST

Why Planning Is Difficult

The summary chapter of this volume suggests several factors which make rational overall water planning difficult: (1) terri- torialism and ownership disputes; (2) uncertainty about key facts; (3) political evolution; (4) an ongoing shift in ethos; and (5) a certain apathy, or at least a tendency toward inaction, without a crisis for motivation. All of these are significant constraints on our ability to plan for the future.

Few of us would disagree, however, that some kind of planning for the future is prudent, if not without risks. It is clear that some areas of the West will inevitably experience problems as water supplies become increasingly strained to their limits. Several areas are already identified as being in critical overdraft, i.e., the condition in which water supplies are being depleted faster than they can be replaced. There is not much doubt that these areas will likely experience serious economic discomfort as water becomes more scarce and dear. The rumblings of these dislocations are already being felt.

We can make certain predictions on what may happen in farming communities where overdraft trends continue. There will be more financial risk and failure for farmers; there will be changes in crops and in irrigation methods; some acreage may be phased out of production. Land values may decline, the tax base may shrink, farm-related businesses may suffer, communities may decline as the economic base erodes. Water availability will certainly influence the distribution of income and wealth between areas. There will be transfer of wealth out of water-short areas into those with more abundant supplies; the decline of income in one area will be picked up elsewhere.

Agriculture is nevertheless an adaptive system. It can adjust in a variety of ways to limited water; or water can be transferred among agricultural regions. Such adjustments need not be disastrous, and some of them are already currently taking place. To encourage rational conservation activities and to alleviate widespread impacts from water shortages, it behooves water planners on various levels of government to take as clear a look at water planning for the future as is possible.

Much of our uncertainty as to prediction stems from the nature of certain variables—climate, energy, population, and political events, to name only a few. In many ways our crystal ball is cloudy, and must remain so.

With regard to climate, for example, the commentary to Chapter 1 suggests that the West may be experiencing an unusually moist few decades in the 20th century, compared to other eras recorded in existing western tree ring data. If climate altered substantially over a period of years—which is entirely possible—our current estimates of surface and groundwater supplies would have to be radically revised.

Current international markets also figure prominently into the U.S. agricultural picture. Disruption of these markets through political events or economic upheavals could change supplydemand equations drastically, and thus incentives for agricultural production.

Energy, as an essential component in the pumping of water, also remains an uncertain variable, with the only sure prediction being that prices for fossil fuels will go up. But how fast? How far?

Population trends are another question mark. U.S. and world population is sure to expand in the decades ahead, increasing food needs; but we don’t know the magnitude of population expansion to expect, nor do we know how other world regions will deal with the needs of their peoples. Dire warnings have been made about world population trends and future food needs, but even the experts disagree.

It is difficult to make long-range plans when there are so many admitted uncertainties, but we know that we should at least be prepared to cope rationally with emerging possibilities. Western water planners will deal best with an uncertain future if they are able to direct their activities along reasonably logical lines.

Needs for Action

Many of the chapters in this volume explicitly or implicitly recommend certain kinds of action to be taken on a number of fronts. Briefly, we condense and list these recommendations here:

• Research and information gathering on consumptive and environmental water needs, including more agreement on methodologies of analysis to be employed.

• Widespread adoption of efficient and cost-effective water management and conservation techniques, including conjunctive use of ground and surface waters in basins.

• Investigation of feasible new water developments in certain specific locations.

• More availability of capital for long-range water management goals, at both local and regional levels.

• Appropriate provision for environmental and social needs in water management and use.

• More innovation in interorganizational planning, particularly at the local level.

• Removal of institutional barriers to economic freedom in decision making.

• More collaboration between federal government and states in management of projects and coordination of policies.

• Better cooperation and more compromise among interest groups representing water users.

These calls for action seem to fall into two general categories: the gathering of more information and knowledge on such matters as environmental interrelationships, technical and scientific innovations, management possibilities, and economic systems; and the building of more flexibility and cooperation into institutions and organizations concerned with water.

Those who live in the western United States have both the opportunity and the challenge to show other water-deficient areas of the world how limited water resources can be managed not only for regional well being, but for the ultimate benefit of mankind.

A New Stage of History

Unlike any other era in human history, we of the later 20th century have the capacity to look at our globe as a whole. The astronauts who first looked back on the Earth from space were struck with both the beauty of the planet and its vulnerability. Suddenly we know that the Earth is fragile; we have begun to realize that there are limits to natural resources, and to our human activities.

Our era is crucially different from those which have gone before. We have greater scientific and technological power—both constructive and destructive—to change our surroundings. We have more knowledge at our fingertips, more ability to gather new information, more power to integrate and transmit it. We realize, and can learn from, mistakes of the past. Our electorate is less likely to foot costly projects, more likely to question motives and intent, and more likely to recognize their own interests. As we grapple with the problems of the present, we have a sense for the complexities inherent in our choices. Perhaps it is that consciousness of complexity which will allow us to become a more mature society, no longer committed to simple solutions, but able to take a wise and balanced view of the resources of our planet—of the West—not only as they will serve us in the short run, but as they will sustain us over time.

Chapter 1

PHYSICAL LIMITATIONS OF WATER RESOURCES

by John Bredehoeft

ABSTRACT

In considering the concept of the hydrologic cycle today one must take into account man’s influence as an integral part of the functioning of the cycle. Except for the mining of groundwater, the same quantity of water is, on the average, in transit in the hydrologic cycle. Groundwater mining is extensive, especially in Arizona and the High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. Groundwater, however, is a one-time supply; to the extent that we mine it, we are faced with a shortage in the future. Both urban movement to the Southwest and energy development compete with agriculture for the available supply, especially in the areas of critical water supply, southern California and Arizona. Competition is present throughout the semiarid West; anywhere water is fully appropriated, increased urban and industrial supplies must come from agriculture. There seems little doubt that as we approach the limits of available water supply there will be increasing competition for water. In a classic economic sense increased competition implies a shortage.

The water supply of the West is nearly fully utilized. It is difficult to foresee major construction projects which will add significantly to the currently available supply. Several critical areas are now heavily dependent upon mining groundwater, a supply which will be depleted at some point in the future. Urban and energy developments, especially in the Southwest, are competing with agriculture for the available water. This competition will undoubtedly intensify, which poses two major issues for society:

1) How will society, at local, state, and regional levels, cope with the increased competition for water?

2) To what extent can the nation forego irrigated agriculture in the West without significantly decreasing its agricultural output?

It is not the intent of this chapter to address these issues; however, we will attempt to provide an overview of the current availability of water.

THE HYDROLOGIC CYCLE

Traditionally, when considering the problems of water resources we hydrologists have been prone to think in terms of virgin or natural streamflow. However, it has become increasingly obvious that natural flow is a relict of the distant past. Man has impacted the water resources so dramatically, especially in the arid and semiarid West, that natural flow does not exist except perhaps in the most remote areas.

We must recognize that man’s activities are today an integral and inseparable part of the hydrologic cycle. Our current understanding of the hydrologic cycle can be described in a paradigm suggested by Matalas, Landwehr, and Wolman. The three tenets of the active paradigm are:

i) human activity is inseparable from the natural system;

ii) quality is no less a concern than quantity of the water mass as it is distributed and moves through the cycle;

iii) the quantity of the water mass affects and is affected by the quality of the water.¹

If we accept the active paradigm as best characterizing our concept of the hydrologic cycle, then it is impossible to look at the physical and chemical limitations on water resources without looking at man’s activities.

Available Water

Precipitation ultimately is the source of water resources. The average annual precipitation for the United States is depicted in Figure 1.1. That precipitation translates into runoff. West of the 100th meridian much of the land is characterized by less than one inch of runoff. The areas of abundant runoff in the West are easily identified in Figure 1.2. The relative magnitude of the average streamflow of the large rivers in the U.S. is shown in Figure 1.3. The major rivers of interest in the western states are the Columbia, the Colorado, the Sacramento, the Missouri, and

Figure 1.1

Average Annual U.S. Precipitation, 1931-1960

Source: Rickert, D.G., W.J. Ulman, and E.R. Hampton, Synthetic Fuels Development—Earth Sciences Considerations, U.S. Geologie Survey, 1979, p.45.

Figure 1.3

Average U.S. Streamflow, 1941-1970

Source: U.S. Water Resources Council, Estendala of Ground Water Hydrology Pertinent to Water Resources Planning, Bulletin 16, revised 1979, p.48.

their tributaries. Future large-scale surface water diversions must almost certainly come from these river systems.

Runoff comes largely from the mountains in the spring as snowmelt. The typical seasonal variation is illustrated by the long-term average monthly runoff for the Clarks Fork of the Yellowstone River near Belfrey, Montana, Figure 1.4. Storage of water, either in surface reservoirs or in aquifers, improves the timing between supply and demand, especially the seasonal demand for agriculture.

Groundwater forms an additional resource. The important aquifers of the western United States are shown in Figure 1.5.

Depletion of Water

Given our picture of surface and groundwater, how much is utilized? Relative water depletion is depicted in Figure 1.6. Depletion