Hazardous Seas: A Sociotechnical Framework for Early Tsunami Detection and Warning

By Louise K. Comfort, Dwikorita Karnawati and Ir. Hammam Riza

Tsunamis are infrequent but terrifying hazards for coastal communities. Difficult to predict, they materialize with little warning, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage. Recent mega-tsunamis in Japan and Indonesia claimed close to 250,000 lives, triggering wide-scale economic and social disruption.  Developing countries cannot afford costly underwater cable systems, and governments and relief organizations have been forced to rely on flawed warning systems such as deep-sea buoys. Now, a groundbreaking new approach to tsunami detection and warning, which relies on low-cost underwater sensors and networks of smartphone communication, has changed the equation. Developed by an international, interdisciplinary team of researchers, this approach allows at-risk coastal communities to have an economically viable, scientifically sound means to protect themselves.

Coeditors Louise K. Comfort and Harkunti P. Rahayu, accomplished experts in disaster preparedness, contend that it will give communities precious additional minutes to communicate warnings about imminent tsunamis to residents, potentially saving many lives. Chapters authored by a close group of collaborators present the science behind this new approach, describing conceptual design, computational models, and real-time testing of a prototype system in the warm equatorial waters of Indonesia’s Mentawai Sea. Introductory chapters explain the sociotechnical approach—how undersea sensors can transmit data to a network of electronic devices on land to alert residents to impending tsunami threats in near-real time. Subsequent chapters explore what this might look like: assessing communities at risk; designing interactive information systems for communication during an emergency; designing wireless networks for smartphone communication that can guide residents to safety; and designing community-based shelters. The book concludes with a thoughtful analysis of how these sociotechnical advances might be used for all coastal cities at risk of tsunamis, sea-level rise, storm surges, and other hazards.

Hazardous Seas is an invaluable guide for policy makers and international NGOs looking to save lives from tsunamis and mitigate crippling damage to communities, and provides a comprehensive overview of tsunami detection and warning for students of engineering, computer science, planning, policy, and economic and environmental analysis. 
 

• Language: English
• Publisher: Island Press
• Release date: Jul 20, 2023
• ISBN: 9781642831641

Book preview

PREFACE

At a tea break during a workshop in Hawaii in February 2006, the concept for this project emerged in a conversation with Dr. Idwan Suhardi and several of his colleagues from the Ministry of Research and Technology of Indonesia. The workshop, organized by three colleagues from the University of Pittsburgh—Daniel Mosse, Louise Comfort, and Taieb Znati—focused on exploratory research on sensor-based infrastructure for early tsunami detection. With support from the US National Science Foundation (NSF), we invited a small group of experts from Asian nations affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami to consider possible, but practical, strategies for early detection and warning of tsunamis. Suhardi, mindful of his nation’s painful loss of more than 126,000 lives in the December 26, 2004, tsunami, asked if there were new technologies available that could assist Indonesia in planning for tsunami mitigation, both in early detection of an oncoming tsunami and in timely warning for a threatened coastal community. The organizers of the workshop offered to explore the possibility of forming an international and interdisciplinary team to design innovative methods for early detection and warning for communities at risk from tsunamis.

The conversations, insights, and reports shared by the international workshop participants led to a second NSF grant funded under the Decision, Risk, and Uncertainty (DRU) Program, Designing Resilience for Communities at Risk: Improving Decision Making to Support Collective Action under Stress, beginning on September 1, 2007. This project explored the intersection of technical and organizational systems to develop a model for a low-cost, energy-efficient, early tsunami detection and warning system in conjunction with Indonesian colleagues at the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Bandung, and Andalas University, Padang, Indonesia. The project also received letters of support from three major Indonesian governmental agencies: Ministry of Research and Technology (RISTEK); Ministry of Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG); and the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). Visits to Indonesia by US researchers forged strong bonds with Indonesian researchers and government personnel to create an international and interdisciplinary research team and provided an invaluable opportunity to see and understand the local conditions of tsunami risk for West Sumatra. As the project closed in 2012, the research team had produced a set of computational models for both an undersea network for early tsunami detection and a community-based wireless network to support communication among neighborhood residents during evacuation in an actual tsunami event.

With vital collaboration and strong support from Indonesian colleagues, the models developed in the DRU project served as the basis for a third grant from the NSF, Hazard SEES Type 2, OCE 1331463, beginning in September 2013. The project proposed to design, build, and test a prototype early tsunami detection and warning system in an actual risk environment. The project involved two interconnected networks that created a sociotechnical system in practice. First, the prototype undersea network would detect a tsunami wave and transmit the warning via acoustic communication to a shore station that would relay the data via satellite to scientists at BMKG. The BMKG scientists would confirm the threat of tsunami and transmit the warning through the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS) to the local emergency operations centers (EOCs) for the threatened community. Second, personnel at the local EOCs, provincial and municipal, would transmit the warning to local neighborhood networks to alert the residents to evacuate. This alert would activate a community-based wireless network at the neighborhood level to aid communication among residents in rapid evacuation of areas at risk. The two networks, operating in coordination, would strengthen the most vulnerable points of the InaTEWS, the initial detection of a tsunami wave and the last link of communication to neighborhood residents at risk, increasing the timeliness and accuracy of the warning to coastal communities.

At its inception, this international and interdisciplinary project included researchers from six institutions: University of Pittsburgh (Pitt), Carnegie Mellon University, Northwestern University, and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) from the United States and the Bandung Institute of Technology and Andalas University from Indonesia. Padang City in West Sumatra served as the field site for the project and location of the neighborhood network development, while the Central Channel of the Mentawai Sea near Siberut Island served as the field site for the undersea network. See figure P-1.

Initiating the Hazard SEES (Interdisciplinary Research in Hazards and Disasters) project was the easy task; designing, building, implementing, and testing the prototype networks in actual field environments half a world away was the hard part. The project was designed to be completed within four years, 2013–2017, with active participation from Indonesian academic colleagues and strong support from Indonesian agencies. Working in an actual environment with multiple conflicting pressures presented multiple challenges. First, Indonesia elected a new president in 2014. The previous president, who had been in office during the 2004 tsunami, and his officials in major ministries had been very supportive of the project, but the new administration had different priorities and selected different candidates to lead the ministries, requiring a new round of presentations, demonstrations, and discussions to earn their support.

Image: FIGURE P-1. Map of the field study area: Central Channel, Mentawai Sea, and West Sumatra, Indonesia.

FIGURE P-1. Map of the field study area: Central Channel, Mentawai Sea, and West Sumatra, Indonesia.

Second, an economic downturn in Indonesia in 2014–2015 led to a 40 percent budget cut for the Indonesian ministries, seriously reducing their capacity to contribute time and resources to the project as initially planned and delaying the implementation of the undersea prototype. Nonetheless, work on the neighborhood network proceeded in 2015 and 2016. A proof of concept for the undersea acoustic network was successfully completed in 2016, but delays in schedules and funding pushed the actual implementation of the undersea network back a year. The project requested and received a no-cost extension from the NSF to complete the project, originally planned for 2017, to the following year. As plans and resources were gradually restored for full deployment of the undersea network in late August 2018, coordinating the schedules among the three Indonesian ministries that were vital to support the prototype early warning again proved unworkable, and plans for implementation of the undersea prototype that year were again canceled.

On September 19, 2018, nature intervened when the Palu tsunami occurred on Sulawesi, killing more than four thousand people, injuring more than ten thousand, and leading to the evacuation of more than seventy thousand. This sobering event underscored the importance of developing innovative methods of early tsunami detection and warning. At this point, the continuation of the project was at risk as the NSF funding for the project ended on August 30, 2018. The global community had watched both the tragedy of the Palu event and the near completion of the prototype early tsunami detection system, though. Noting the potential for the undersea early tsunami detection prototype to protect lives and communities in tsunami-prone areas, the Swiss Re Foundation, a global foundation committed to risk reduction, contacted Comfort to inquire about the requirements to complete the deployment and testing of the prototype early tsunami detection system and invited submission of a proposal to fund the completion of the planned deployment in Indonesia.

With funding from the Swiss Re Foundation confirmed, the international interdisciplinary team, now smaller as the task focused primarily on the implementation of the undersea network, reviewed and reorganized plans for deployment of the prototype system in the Mentawai Sea. A formal agreement among BPPT, WHOI, and Pitt was signed to supplement the existing partnership between Pitt and ITB in November 2019 to conduct the deployment of the undersea network in late December 2019. With minor adjustments to the schedule, the deployment was conducted from January 1 to January 3, 2020, in the Mentawai Sea. This deployment produced the successful outcome of validating the undersea network communication for the prototype detection system, but a failed deployment of the cable connecting the acoustic modem to the shore station. To correct this key link in the network, it was essential to lay a new cable and establish a working connection between the undersea detection and acoustic transmission instruments and the onshore relay station.

The international network had forged a strong commitment to complete the full deployment of the prototype. The Swiss Re Foundation agreed to fund a second grant to purchase a new cable. BPPT offered to contribute the ship time and crew to make a second cruise to the Siberut site to deploy the cable. The WHOI engineers worked with the Indonesian engineers to review and redesign the necessary equipment to complete a second deployment, which would require laying new cable and refabricating the equipment needed for a fresh connection. All plans were in place, and the cruise to Siberut to install the new cable was scheduled for late March 2020. But external events intruded again, this time in the form of a global pandemic, COVID-19, that shut down international travel and closed the engineering labs of BPPT. The March 2020 cruise was delayed again.

Recognizing the importance of reestablishing the connection between the shore station and the undersea ocean bottom unit (OBU) that housed the equipment that had been deployed successfully in early January 2020, the Swiss Re Foundation offered a small grant to meet the additional costs of continuing the project under COVID-19 restrictions. With full support from BPPT in terms of providing ship and crew for the cruise, a new cable funded by the Swiss Re Foundation, and a professional company hired to lay the cable, the Indonesian engineering team undertook a second deployment in July 2020. Regrettably, travel restrictions imposed to limit exposure to COVID-19 prevented the WHOI engineers from joining the cruise for the second deployment. With careful planning and simulation of the seabed route, the cable was laid professionally. Improvements were also made to the shore station, with solar installation to ensure electrical power and tests performed to ensure an effective satellite connection for data transmission. The final test, however, revealed that the canister had failed under the pressure of water from a depth of more than 700 meters. Replacing the canister at substantial expense was the only solution.

With the dedication and commitment of true innovators, the international interdisciplinary research team conducted a thorough review of the requirements needed for a final successful deployment of the prototype early tsunami detection and warning system. The science had already been proven. Acoustic communication underwater for at least 25 kilometers had been documented twice. The challenge was implementing the engineering required for the system to operate in deep water. After careful consideration, BPPT agreed to fund the fabrication of a new canister to meet international standards. The Swiss Re Foundation agreed to the reallocation of monies that had been designated for an international conference to publicize the findings from the prototype system to expenses for a third deployment. The WHOI engineers continued to collaborate long-distance with the Indonesian engineers to review and support the plans for a third deployment, initially planned for early August but delayed again until early September by a major surge of COVID-19 in Indonesia.

On September 1, 2021, the project experienced a further external shock when the implementing agency, BPPT, was dissolved and a new agency, the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), absorbed most of the former BPPT responsibilities. This organizational change created a period of reorganization and redefinition of responsibilities as staff who had played primary roles in the project were now shifted to new units and new positions. Still, the Indonesian engineers and researchers were committed to the project and continued to adapt to the new administrative arrangements.

The challenge for the third deployment was that only the canister needed to be replaced, as the cable had been successfully laid. It would be necessary to retrieve the old canister at the bottom of the sea and replace it with the new canister at sea. This exchange would require a ship with a dynamic positioning system to hold the ship steady in rolling ocean waters while the engineers performed the delicate task of disconnecting the old canister and reconnecting a new canister. BPPT did not have such a ship in its fleet, which meant that it would be necessary to hire such a ship with its crew, at substantial cost. The monies remaining from the Swiss Re Foundation grant were insufficient to cover the cost. Pitt and ITB personnel agreed to search for funding to support a third, and final, deployment.

After the tragedy of the Palu tsunami in 2018, officers of GOJEK, the Indonesian ride-hailing company, had contacted Comfort, principal investigator of the Hazard SEES project, to offer its assistance in completing the deployment of the prototype early tsunami detection and warning system. Recalling that offer, Comfort contacted GOJEK and explained the situation of the prototype and the need for additional funding to complete it successfully. The request was referred to the Yayasan Asak Bangsa Bisa (YABB) Foundation, newly established by GOJEK to serve humanitarian needs in Indonesia and four other countries in Southeast Asia.

YABB staff responded with a request for more information regarding the project and, after review and discussion, invited a proposal for funding. YABB agreed to fund the proposal, but initially only at half the amount requested. As the negotiations for a ship with dynamic positioning continued and the detailed costs for the third deployment became clear, the proposal was revised to increase the request for funds that would cover the additional cost of a ship with DP Ship Management and related expenses. After detailed negotiations, YABB agreed to increase its contribution to cover the cost of the DP ship and crew.

Timing was critical in this process, and the ship was available only for a specific window early December 2021. The WHOI engineers had prepared to join the crew for the cruise to Siberut, filing applications for travel visas, purchasing tickets, and planning to leave in late November. As they waited for confirmation of travel visas, external events intruded again as the Omicron variant of the SARSCoV2 virus surged across the world in late November 2021. The Indonesian Office of Immigration again closed the country’s borders to foreign travelers to protect the population against infection, and the WHOI engineers were not granted visas for travel.

All other plans for the redeployment of the canister were in place. The canister had been fabricated according to international standards and tested successfully, and the DP ship and crew were headed toward Siberut. The international engineering team proceeded with the deployment of the canister, the most difficult and risky task in activating the undersea network. In a remarkable instance of tele-engineering, the WHOI engineers were in continual communication with BPPT/BRIN engineers via Zoom and WhatsApp across a 12-hour time difference as the team succeeded in replacing the canister and establishing a successful connection to the shore station.

Given events beyond their control, the new BRIN administrators extended the funds for a fourth cruise to Siberut to the end of March 2022. This cruise would retrieve the OBU for renovation and reconnect it to the now-working canister and cabled modem. In March 2022, the Omicron variant receded; visas were available in early April, and the WHOI engineers traveled to Indonesia in mid-April 2022. They met the Indonesian team in Padang and traveled to Siberut, where they were able to retrieve the OBU, renovate the equipment, replace the batteries, test all connections, and successfully redeploy the OBU. The final step was to reactivate the cabled modem that had been tested successfully in December 2021. Apparently, between December 2021 and April 2022, an electrical short had occurred in the cable line under deep water. All components of the prototype system had been tested and proven to work at different times, and the science of underwater acoustic communication over long distances had been demonstrated three times; still, the major engineering task of integrating all components in deep ocean waters requires specialized equipment and investment. The strain of interrupting the deployment at three different stages due to external conditions presented an unexpected challenge in the effort to activate a fully working undersea prototype early tsunami detection and warning system.

Looking back over the sixteen years since an early concept for mitigating tsunami risk was articulated over tea at a workshop in Hawaii, we confirm that this vision has been translated into reality. The challenges were many. It was not easy to secure sufficient funding to support the technical development. The task of integrating a shared vision among multiple organizations necessary to complete this task, given competing interests, changing priorities, and varying schedules, was equally challenging. The engineering and computational designs involved in both the neighborhood wireless network and the undersea acoustic network were implemented and tested in physical environments that had never been tried before. Nevertheless, a small group of dedicated researchers, decision makers, and practicing engineers continued to overcome obstacles and engage supporters from a wide range of governmental, academic, and nonprofit organizations to achieve a working prototype early tsunami detection system. The work is not done—there are still many steps left to achieve full implementation of the basic design and promise of the system—but the vision of early tsunami detection and warning is clearer and brighter now, with demonstrated evidence that such a sociotechnical system is workable in practice.

Louise Comfort

Oakland, California, USA

Harkunti Rahayu

Bandung, Indonesia

Chapter 1

Building Community Resilience to Disaster Risk: A Sociotechnical Approach

Louise K. Comfort and Mark W. Dunn

Communities exposed to intermittent but recurring risk confront the difficult problem of recognizing when risk is imminent and mobilizing collective action to reduce harm. In many instances, signals are scattered, timing is uncertain, and alternatives for action are not clear; yet the costs and consequences of inaction in areas of known risk are enormous in terms of loss of life, damage to property, and disruption of economic and social activities when hazards strike.

Recent tsunamis in Indonesia give deadly evidence of the challenge confronting public policy makers who are charged with legal responsibility to protect their citizens from harm. On September 29, 2018, more than two thousand lives were lost in Palu, Sulawesi, when a tsunami wave, or run-up, more than 5 meters high crashed ashore and exacerbated severe liquefaction that ensued from the precipitating earthquake, destroying most of an adjacent town (USGS 2018; Wright 2018). Less than three months later, on December 23, 2018, tsunami waves more than 3 meters high, generated by undersea landslides from the erupting volcano, Anak Krakatau in the Sunda Strait, damaged towns on both Java and Sumatra islands and claimed at least 373 lives (Martin and Zhou 2018). These events pale in comparison to the severe losses incurred from the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami that took an estimated 230,000 lives, more than 126,000 in Indonesia. These sudden, massive, deadly events require the active engagement of the whole community to anticipate risk and reduce harm.

How does a community learn to recognize risk and act collectively to reduce probable loss from extreme events? This extraordinarily complex, interdisciplinary, interorganizational, and interjurisdictional problem requires knowledge of the science underlying the hazard; knowledge of the laws, policies, and plans for mobilizing public services to protect community residents; knowledge of both resources and risks in the community in terms of infrastructure, economic situations, and social organizations; and importantly, knowledge of the local culture, beliefs, values, and customs of the residents. No single organization, agency, or jurisdiction can manage to recognize these hazards and reduce risk to the exposed communities alone.

Decision making in risk environments has a long, rich tradition of study in public policy and administration research and theory (La Porte 1975; Beck 1992; Roberts 1993; Weick 1993). This tradition acknowledges the uncertainty involved in risk environments, but largely views organization as a means of establishing sufficiently robust policies and procedures to maintain reliable performance in changing conditions (Roberts 1993; Weick 1995; Weick and Sutcliffe 2007) and adequate resources to meet unexpected demands (Landau 1969; Van de Walle 2014). In extreme environments, organizations designed to maintain order and stability tend to fracture under pressure as their structures of authority no longer fit the altered operating conditions (Weick 1993; Comfort 2019). Other researchers have focused on the role of communication as a key factor in integrating disparate views, personnel, and cognitive assessments of changing conditions (Luhmann 1996; Comfort 2007; Castells 2009). Communication, central to creating the capacity for collective cognition, enables informed action on a community-wide scale and builds resilience to recurring hazards. The actual development of cognitive capacity in practice is not well understood, however, nor is the crucial transition from cognition to action on a community-wide scale. Lack of understanding of these related cognitive processes represents a critical gap in the wider literature on managing risk in complex