Hurricane Dorian—The Story of the Greatest and Deadliest Hurricane To: Impact the Bahamas in the Modern Era

By Wayne Neely and Max Mayfield

Hurricane Dorian is a heartbreaking tale for The Bahamas. It was one of the strongest North Atlantic hurricanes and the strongest Bahamian hurricane and caused about $3.4 billion in damages to the Bahamian economy. Hurricane Dorian struck Abaco and Grand Bahama with wind speeds of 185 mph and had the highest wind speeds for a North Atlantic landfalling hurricane. The storm caused the death of 74 people in The Bahamas. In addition, more than 75 percent of all homes on Abaco were either damaged or destroyed. In East End, Grand Bahama, satellite data suggested that 76 to 100 percent of the buildings were destroyed. This book includes the meteorological history, records broken, compelling personal recollections, its impact on each island affected, a chapter on climate change and its effects on hurricanes, the benefits of hurricanes, and why we need them on planet Earth. This book is a must-read!

• Language: English
• Publisher: Xlibris US
• Release date: Oct 31, 2022
• ISBN: 9781669853367

Wayne Neely

Wayne Neely is a noted Bahamian meteorologist, international speaker, best-selling author, lecturer on hurricanes, and meteorologist. Traveling extensively throughout the region and worldwide, Wayne addresses critical issues affecting all aspects of hurricanes. He majored in Geography, History, and Environmental Science at the University of The Bahamas. He has written 14 best-selling books on hurricanes. Wayne has written for National Geographic, Weather-Wise Magazine, Weather Brains, The New York Times, Time, Newsweek, People, Huffington Post, The Washington Post, The Nassau Guardian, The Nassau Tribune, and the American Meteorological Society. He regularly speaks to schools, colleges, and universities worldwide. He has been a hurricane advisor for Jeopardy, The History Channel, and Who Wants to Be a Millionaire. His book, The Great Okeechobee Hurricane, was featured in National Geographic. In addition, he has contributed to and was featured in PBS/NOVA documentaries: 1) Killer Hurricanes, 2) Hurricane Dorian, and 3) MyRadar-Climate Series.

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Copyright © 2022 by Wayne Neely.

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without permission in writing from the copyright owner.

Aliana Alexis of Haiti stands on the concrete slab crying in disbelief of what

is left of her home after its destruction by Hurricane Dorian in a Haitian

shantytown area called the Mudd in the settlement of Marsh Harbour on Great

Abaco Island, the Bahamas, on Thursday, September 5, 2019. From the Miami

Herald. © [2019] Al Diaz. All rights reserved. Used under license.

Rev. date: 10/29/2022

Xlibris

844-714-8691

www.Xlibris.com

846836

CONTENTS

Dedication

Foreword

Author’s Note

Preface

Introduction

Chapter 1Meteorological History of Hurricane Dorian

Chapter 2Why Do We Need Hurricanes on Planet Earth? The Ultimate Purpose and Benefits of Hurricanes

Chapter 3The Bahamas Department of Meteorology Official Hurricane Dorian Report

Chapter 4The Impact of Hurricane Dorian’s Destruction on the Island of Abaco in the Bahamas

Chapter 5The Impact of Hurricane Dorian’s Destruction on the Island of Grand Bahama in the Bahamas

Chapter 6Oil Spill at the Equinor Oil Storage Facility at East End Grand Bahama during Hurricane Dorian

Chapter 7The Bahamas Government’s Progress Initiatives after Hurricane Dorian

Chapter 8Hurricanes and Climate Change—What We Know So Far about Climate Change and Its Impacts on Hurricanes

Chapter 9Charity Relief in the Bahamas after Hurricane Dorian

Chapter 10The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) Assessment Report on the Effects, Damages, and Other Impacts in the Bahamas by Hurricane Dorian—Estimated at $3.4 billion

Chapter 11Samantha Regan—Our Dorian Experience Living on Elbow Cay, Abaco

Chapter 12Personal Recollections of Hurricane Dorian and Coroner’s Inquest Testimonies

Conclusion

Epilogue

Bibliography

About the Author

DEDICATION

• To the victims and survivors of Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas. I hope that their stories will live on for future generations to read about and appreciate why this storm was regarded as the greatest and deadliest hurricane to impact the Bahamas in the modern era!

• To the late sir Charles Carter—one of my great Bahamian mentors. Thanks for pouring your great love, appreciation, and desire into my heart and soul to value and cherish Bahamian history and tell the Bahamian story. Meeting and knowing you on this great walk of life, sir, was a great honor and a privilege of mine. May you RIP.

• To the army of men and women behind the scenes who made this book project possible in more ways than one in their own unique and individual ways. I cherish and value each of your support in making this book project a reality.

• To Mr. Les Brown, who, at a conference held here in the Bahamas, through his unique ways and methods, reminded me of the following: (1) Pass it on; (2) It is important how you use your downtime; (3) Someone’s opinion of you doesn’t have to become a reality; and (4) In the time of adversity, expand!

• To the late doctor Myles Munroe, who always reminded me the following: (1) Die empty!; (2) Pursue your purpose!; (3) Purpose is when you know and understand what you were born to accomplish. Vision is when you see it in your mind and begin to imagine it!; (4) Managers think of the next position. Leaders think of the next generation!; and (5) Maximize your potential! (I listened to them, and this book is the result. Thank you, Mr. Les Brown and the late doctor Myles Munroe, for your invaluable contributions to my life.)

• Unless you know your history, you cannot come to grips with your identity and your whole sense of being.—Dr. Gail Diane Saunders PhD

• For anybody who changes his principles, depending on who he is dealing (with), that is not a man who can lead a nation. I have dedicated my life to this struggle of the African people. I have fought against white domination, and I have fought against black domination. I have cherished the ideals of a democratic and free society in which all persons will live together in harmony and with equal opportunities. It is an ideal for which I hope to live for and to see realized. But my Lord, if it needs be, it is an ideal, for which I am prepared to die. —Nelson Mandela

• The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.—Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

• As a man, I have been representative of the values I hold dear. And the values I hold dear are carryovers from the lives of my parents. In my case, the body of work stands for itself... I think my work has been representative of me as a man.—Sir Sidney Poitier—RIP

FOREWORD

Do you want to know what it is like to go through a category 5 hurricane? If so, I strongly suggest you read Wayne Neely’s book Hurricane Dorian—the Story of the Greatest and Deadliest Hurricane to Impact the Bahamas in the Modern Era. Dorian was one of the strongest landfalling Bahamas and North Atlantic hurricanes that rapidly intensified from a cat 2 to cat 5 two days prior to landfall. Mr. Neely, a forecaster with the Bahamas Department of Meteorology, has documented the staggering impacts on those without the basic necessities—no communications, no shelter, no water, no power, no food, contaminated groundwater—as well as the impacts on the economy. Recovery from hurricanes is always challenging, and the coronavirus pandemic made this recovery even more so. The pictures and personal stories from survivors will leave lasting memories with the reader. In addition, the heroic efforts of survivors, the kindness of strangers, incredible outpouring of love and support from people around the world provide lessons for us all.

Not many people have experienced a category 5 like Dorian. If you live in a hurricane-vulnerable location, I hope you can substitute a little education in place of such an experience. I can assure you that learning about a category 5 in this book is far better than personally experiencing such a tempest. It is my hope that this book will motivate people to plan and prepare for a worst-case scenario like Dorian. It is easier to plan for a catastrophe and scale back as appropriate rather than try to beef up your existing plan at the last moment. Please don’t forget the age-old quote from writer and philosopher George Santayana, If you don’t remember the past, you are condemned to repeat it.

Max Mayfield

Former Director, US National Hurricane Center (NHC) from 2000 to 2007

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Max Mayfield—former director, US National Hurricane Center (2000 to 2007), Florida (Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center).

Max Mayfield

Mr. Britt Max Mayfield is known as the Walter Cronkite of Weather, trustworthy, calming, and always giving the facts straight. Mr. Mayfield is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society and a nationally and an internationally recognized expert on hurricanes. Britt Max Mayfield (born September 19, 1948) is an American meteorologist who served as the USA’s National Hurricane Center director from 2000 to 2007. As director, Mayfield became a trusted and credible voice in preparing for weather-related disasters, particularly those involving tropical storms and hurricanes. A constant and steady media presence, Mayfield became a household name during the record-breaking 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons when he guided coastal residents through eight US landfalling hurricanes, including Hurricane Katrina, the most notable of them all. In addition, he helped to secure funding for extra buoys, the Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) for estimating winds speed over the ocean, and four additional hurricane specialists.

Mayfield began his forecasting career with the United States Air Force in 1970, after graduating from the University of Oklahoma with a bachelor’s degree in mathematics, serving as a first lieutenant until 1972. In 1972, Mayfield joined the National Weather Service as a satellite meteorologist. He holds a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from the University of Oklahoma and a master’s degree in meteorology from Florida State University; in 1987, becoming a hurricane specialist. Max Mayfield was director of NOAA’s Tropical Prediction Center–National Hurricane Center, part of NOAA’s National Weather Service. He has played a vital role in forecast and service improvements over a thirty-four-year career span. Max became the director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in January 2000 after the retirement of Jerry Jarrell.

Mayfield was the former chairman of the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Association-IV, which supports twenty-six members from the North Atlantic and eastern Pacific countries. Mayfield stepped down from his position as director of the National Hurricane Center in January 2007 and was succeeded by Bill Proenza. On April 1, 2007, he joined Miami-based local television station WPLG as a hurricane specialist. He retired from WPLG on November 22, 2019.

In 1996, the America Meteorological Society honored him with the Francis W. Reichelderfer Award for exemplary performance as the National Hurricane Center’s hurricane preparedness training coordinator for emergency preparedness officials and the general public. In addition, the US Department of Commerce recognized Mr. Mayfield with gold medals for his work during (1992) Hurricane Andrew and (2003) Hurricane Isabel and a silver medal during (1988) Hurricane Gilbert. Mayfield also received an Outstanding Achievement Award at the 2000 National Hurricane Conference for developing and expanding training opportunities for state and local officials. He was also awarded a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration bronze medal for creating a public-private partnership to support the nation’s disaster preparedness.

In 2004, he received an Emmy Award for extraordinary contributions to television by someone not ordinarily eligible for Emmy Awards. In 2005, Mayfield became ABC’s Person of the Week after Hurricane Katrina. He also received a Presidential Rank Award for Meritorious Service in 2005. The Saturday before Katrina hit, Mayfield personally called the mayor of New Orleans to emphasize how serious the threat was to the city. He told Time magazine, This was only the second time I called a politician in my life. I wanted to be able to go to sleep knowing I had done everything I could do. The following day, Mayor Nagin finally called for a mandatory evacuation.

A fellow of the American Meteorological Society, he has presented invited papers at national and international scientific meetings, lectured in United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization–sponsored training sessions, and provided numerous interviews to electronic and print media worldwide. In 2004, the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and supporting research sponsored an Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference and presented its Richard Hagemeyer Award to Mr. Mayfield for his contributions to the nation’s hurricane warning program. In addition, he was also selected as the 2005 Government Communicator of the Year by the National Association of Government Communicators (NAGC). In addition, he received a Presidential Rank Award for Meritorious Service in 2005. Max Mayfield is married to Linda Mayfield and resides in Miami, Florida. They have three children: Lee, Lindsay, and Lauren.

When I choose a person to write my foreword, it is not just a name I select to sell my book. However, I prefer someone who has made a significant and invaluable contribution to the science of meteorology in such a great way that we will remember their contributions for generations to follow. Max Mayfield’s work as a former director of the NHC is well-established and noted in the entire region and worldwide, and his work speaks for itself. As a young and upcoming Bahamian meteorologist watching Hurricane Andrew’s impact on my country and South Florida, I was amazed by the significant damage this hurricane inflicted on these two great countries. That was my first introduction to Max Mayfield. However, what was even more of a substantial impression on me was his speech given to the US Congress years later. He testified and presented valid reasons why they should drastically increase funding to the National Hurricane Center. At that point, US Congress was in an era of reducing the nation’s budget of most government agencies.

Hurricane Andrew was the first in a series of modern-era hurricanes that devastated the USA and the Bahamas and the catalyst for the request to increase funding to the National Hurricane Center. Thank God for Max Mayfield’s compelling presentation because the US Congress eventually did increase its funding. This increased funding allowed for more significant and positive changes at National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration and the National Hurricane Center. Furthermore, this resulted in more accurate hurricane forecasting tools and more advanced technology used at NHC, which led to more accurate hurricane forecasts within the region and worldwide. It is fair to say that every country within this region and worldwide has benefited from his outstanding leadership and policies instituted by him and others at the NHC. Mr. Mayfield and his leadership team has undoubtedly helped save countless lives and the property of citizens around the US, Canada, Central America, the Bahamas, Caribbean, and worldwide.

AUTHOR’S NOTE

Over the last thirty-one years of my life as a professional Bahamian meteorologist, hurricanes and their impact on my country of the Bahamas and the region have led me to write fifteen books on hurricanes. These previous books have allowed me to procure some of the best-noted meteorologists and scientists in the business to write the foreword for me. This prestigious list includes Bryan Norcross, a former hurricane specialist at The Weather Channel and now the hurricane specialist at WPLG in Miami; the late Herbert Saffir, cocreator of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale; Phil Klotzbach (PhD), a researcher from Colorado State University; the late professor William Gray, from Colorado State University; Steve Lyons (PhD), a former hurricane specialist at The Weather Channel and former meteorologist in charge of the San Angelo National Weather Service Office in Texas; Christopher Landsea (PhD), the chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch at the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida; Kerry Emanuel (PhD), a noted professor of Meteorology/Atmospheric Sciences at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Michel Davison, the lead forecaster and chief coordinator of administration at the US Weather Prediction Center, NCEP’s (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) International Desks of the US National Oceanographic Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC; William (Bill) Read, a former director of the US National Hurricane Center; and now Max Mayfield, a former director, US National Hurricane Center.

In every new book I write and publish on hurricanes, I feature a renowned meteorologist or a noted person within the scientific community or the meteorological field to write the foreword for the book. You might not know their names, but if I mentioned these individuals’ contributions to the scientific and meteorological communities and worldwide hurricanes forecasting, tracking, and research, I am sure most people will immediately recognize them for their life’s work. This book is no different with former NHC director Max Mayfield. His inclusion adds credibility to these books and shows the importance of hurricanes and their significant impact on people’s lives from all walks of life here in the Bahamas, this region, and worldwide. I am honored and delighted Max has so graciously decided to write the foreword for what I think is my best book to date.

I met Max Mayfield during the Bahamas Ministry of Tourism’s Annual Weather Conference. I met Max initially at lunch after a morning session of presentations, and we discussed many issues over lunch. Over the years, we have communicated with each other from time to time and followed each other’s careers. The conference attracted close to one hundred television meteorologists and meteorologists from the US, the Caribbean, Canada, and Europe. Meteorologists attending the Bahamas Ministry of Tourism’s Annual Weather Conference were instructed on warning, informing the public, and precisely the best way to communicate information regarding pending storms.

This weather conference was incredibly beneficial to tourism as people in the meteorological arena learned the correct way to communicate oncoming storms geographically. In addition, after these conferences, the public and, by extension, these meteorologists became more knowledgeable about exactly where the trouble areas were and realized they did not have to avoid the entire islands of the Bahamas or the Caribbean. The ultimate purpose of this conference was realized with Hurricane Dorian in 2019. After Hurricane Dorian devastated Abaco and Grand Bahama, most potential tourists decided to cancel their vacations to the Bahamas because of the false perception or belief that all islands were destroyed or interconnected by the storm. As a result, the Bahamas government had to spend millions of dollars in additional advertising to convey that many parts of the Bahamas were still open for tourism. Tourism is the number-one industry in the Bahamas, and seventy cents of every dollar comes from tourism.

The annual Bahamas Ministry of Tourism’s Weather Conference was the first to directly address the science of hurricanes and their relationships to tourism, creating this conference in 1997. It has been widely noted that the value of the Bahamas Ministry of Tourism’s Annual Weather Conference has been recognized by the National Weather Association and the American Meteorologist Society. Both professional organizations extended continuing education credit to their members who attended the conference. The Bahamas Ministry of Tourism’s Weather Conference was held every year and sponsored by the Bahamas government. Meteorologists and weather broadcasters from around the region were invited to attend the conference courtesy of the Bahamas government.

PREFACE

Thanks to Stephanie Hanna and the wonderful folks at JS Johnson Insurance Company and Mr. Rupert Roberts Jr., former president and CEO of Super Value Food Stores. They paid my way with roundtrip tickets to Abaco and Grand Bahama islands to view the devastation caused by Hurricane Dorian on several occasions and to get personal recollections about this very impactful, record-breaking, and monumental storm. It was an eye-opening experience for me. Shortly after Hurricane Dorian devastated the Bahamas, I was afforded the opportunity to travel to both Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands to view the devastation firsthand. As a fifteen-time hurricane author and a thirty-two-year professional Bahamian meteorologist who has seen quite a bit of destruction from hurricanes in my lifetime, nothing could have prepared me for what I was about to witness on these two islands impacted by Hurricane Dorian in 2019. Flying into Abaco and Grand Bahama by airplane to view the great devastation on these two islands was readily noticeable by air. It looked like someone had dropped a four-hundred-megaton nuclear bomb on Abaco and eastern Grand Bahama, and a lake had formed over eastern Grand Bahama and sections of Abaco, most notably Marsh Harbour.

The trees were stripped of their foliage and looked like they were violently ravaged or severely burned by fire. Every building in the Marsh Harbour settlement was destroyed, and their roofs were seen quite a distance away from the actual structure, while others were flooded with water. A grounded boat lying on its side some four hundred to six hundred feet inland from the sea was the first clear and visible sign of what was to come. Then the first houses—or what once had been houses—came into view. Most were demolished by the strong 185 mph winds and gusts as high as 220 mph, leaving only roof sections and chunks of siding clumped together in big piles. In Abaco, full-size steel shipping containers and cars were strewn about like crushed, dented, or discarded soda cans. The Mudd and Pigeon Pea Haitian shanty towns were, in a word, obliterated and simply just piles of randomly arranged lumber, old and discarded appliances, and rubble with no clear sign or clue that those two shantytown settlements once stood there pre-Dorian. The quaint fishing village of Sweetings Cay, Grand Bahama, was easily noticeable by plane, and just about every building on this cay lay waste to being the victim of Dorian’s wrath.

On eastern Grand Bahama, the spilled oil from the Equinor oil tanks was clearly visible. At the time, one could not help but wonder about the great and insurmountable challenge that lay ahead in cleaning up the spill. In addition, the settlements in eastern and central Grand Bahama were all severely damaged. The roofs were gone on many homes, and noticeable structural damages to buildings were compelling to the eyes and pain to the soul. The residents in these settlements seemed dazed and confused as a veil of sadness was clearly noticeable on these victims’ faces. Many of them discussed with me and others who would listen to their undesirable plight with no funds to rebuild or no idea how they would bring their lives back to some degree of normalcy after Dorian. This introduction to their hurricane plight was my baptism by fire of witnessing firsthand the dire consequences of this category 5 behemoth of a hurricane but, most importantly, viewing the fury that Hurricane Dorian had inflicted on the islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama and, by extension, the entire Bahamas. Category 5 Hurricane Dorian in 2019 has shown our strengths and weaknesses when preparing for and dealing with the repercussions of a major hurricane. Still, it has demonstrated our resiliency and how we arise above these ravages of nature called hurricanes.

This book is a comprehensive overview of Hurricane Dorian’s toll on the islands’ economies and accounts for the losses broken down throughout the sectors. It analyzes critical vulnerabilities and threats and compiles assessment findings with recommendations to build resilience to honor the nation’s past while advancing the present and preserving its future. In addition, this book provides the Bahamas with data that supports meaningful policy reforms to promote strategic decision-making regarding future natural disasters. As we forge ahead, there is a new reality developing, and it is that we are now living in uncertain times where climate change and its great impact on planet Earth seems to be the order of the day. Its consequences require us to have tactical plans that protect and foster stability in the nation’s economic, social, physical, and cultural systems. As a hurricane author, I am honored to partner with the Bahamas government, several major insurance companies, and the people of the Bahamas and present this damaging impact and loss assessment book to help strengthen national initiatives for a more resilient Bahamas.

My first trips to Abaco and Grand Bahama took place a few days after Hurricane Dorian had stalled over these islands and had lashed them with strong gusty winds, powerful storm surges, and severe flooding. During these visits, the complexities of Hurricane Dorian, the recovery efforts, and the long road ahead were, in some ways, only beginning to reveal themselves to me. In Abaco, workers had cleared the Leonard M. Thompson International Airport runway in Marsh Harbour of debris, and most of the water had drained away. However, the landing strip buildings were partly destroyed, and their contents were clearly exposed. The control tower remained untouched; however, the attached office building was stripped to its foundation and frame. Once the aircraft landed, I realized the airstrip was being operated by US Navy personnel who orchestrated the air traffic from the tarmac via radios.

Having spent the last fifteen to twenty years researching and writing fourteen bestselling books on hurricanes and interviewing thousands of Bahamians about hurricanes impacting the country, I have concluded that we are far more vulnerable to hurricane damage today than we were in the recent past. This observation is especially true when looking at the magnitude of Dorian’s devastation in the Bahamas in September 2019. Furthermore, I have also come to the disturbing conclusion that Bahamians do not give these storms the respect they deserve by not preparing adequately for them. The main, but not the only, reason is complacency. Hurricane survivors tell me repeatedly that they did not prepare for them because they never thought a storm of that great magnitude would ever hit them. The sad reality is that when it did, they had to rely on others, especially the government of the day and the private sector, to bring their lives back. This complacency is dangerous if, as some meteorologists and other scientists predict, we are entering a more ominous period of increased intense hurricane activity, like the periods of 1925 to 1945, 1860 to 1900, and 1995 to the present. The 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season validated this point many times over. It became the most active hurricane season in the North Atlantic’s recorded history with thirty named storms, fourteen hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) and forcing the National Hurricane Center to resort to using the Greek alphabet for a second time for listed named storms. It replaced the 2005 North Atlantic hurricane season with twenty-eight storms (twenty-seven named and one unnamed storm), fifteen hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes as the most active season.

If there is the proverbial silver lining behind the dark cloud, we now have a reference template storm in Hurricane Dorian as a guide for preparing for future powerful modern-day storms. Hurricane Dorian showed our strength and weakness in hurricane preparations or lack thereof and our vulnerability to these storms. Therefore, it behooves us to get them right before the next big storm impacts the Bahamas again. This is because we as Bahamians could see even more significant damage in the coming years from more powerful storms like Hurricane Dorian unless we, as individuals, corporations, nongovernmental organizations, and government, act. Furthermore, it does not look very promising for this to occur because too many people choose to live in hurricane-prone coastal areas without prior hurricane experience or considering the magnitude or consequences of the risks they are taking.

This author’s ultimate goal is to help make the science of hurricanes more useful, clearer, and relevant to people today and in the future. This mandate can be achieved by assisting people in understanding the risks and how to prepare for and survive the next big and devastating hurricane. With the documentation of the impact, destruction, and firsthand personal recollections in this book, this author’s hope and desire are that we learn from them and be more adequately prepared for future storms to impact the Bahamas. This book tells the story of the experiences of the Bahamian people during and after category 5 Hurricane Dorian, which struck the islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco on September 1–2, 2019.

As the most powerful hurricane to strike the Bahamas and the second-fiercest storm ever recorded in the North Atlantic in terms of wind speed, no one knew what lay ahead for the residents of these two impacted islands or the entire Bahamas for that matter. Unbelief, resilient, devastating, disaster, and amazement were the five specific words most used to describe the people on these islands and the significant impact of Hurricane Dorian. In addition, it profiles the two islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco in the Bahamas that were impacted by this storm and changed the tenor of their lives and their islands forever. Finally, this book profiles the courageous residents on these two islands who lived through one of the most powerful, terrifying, and devastating hurricanes to impact the Bahamas and the entire region of the North Atlantic. Dorian was one of the worst hurricanes to devastate the Bahamas since the Great Nassau Hurricane of 1926 (category 4), the Great Bahamas Hurricane of 1929 (category 4), the Great Abaco of 1932 (category 5), the Great Cuba-Brownsville Hurricane of 1933 (category 5), the Great Treasure Coast Hurricane of 1933 (category 4), and Hurricane Andrew of 1992 (category 5). The word great meant the hurricane was equivalent to a category 4 hurricane on the present-day Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with 136 mph or greater winds.

During my research, I was surprised by the great death toll and continually impressed with the numerous storm stories of courage and bravery by many persons on the devastated islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama. The contributions to the recovery efforts made by the hardworking, conscientious Abaco and Grand Bahama residents, military and police officers, public employees, civil servants, charity workers and organizations whose actions so often go unrecognized were nothing short of remarkable. We all owe them a great debt, and this book is, in part, a thank-you. Furthermore, the heroic acts of rescue and compassion during Hurricane Dorian by residents of both islands often go unnoticed but must not never be forgotten or downplayed. Each island impacted by this hurricane has its own unique and compelling stories to tell. My ultimate or primary goal or mandate for this book is essentially unique and persuasive only because it engenders or illustrates how quickly and how much life has changed to a new normal for these residents. This storm’s critical impact on the Bahamas will be on full display for all to see, as this book will clearly show.

Before Hurricane Dorian impacted the Bahamas in September 2019, I had already started writing two new books on Bahamian and American hurricanes. They were scheduled to be released in the fall of 2020. Well, needless to say, they were temporarily shelved until this book was published. After the tremendous impact that Hurricane Dorian had on my country of the Bahamas, I immediately realized that I had to devote an entire book to this massive hurricane. When I first decided to write this book, I knew I had to travel to Hurricane Dorian’s ground zero (the islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco), the main impact areas of this storm.

As I stated before, to assist me with travel to these two respective islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco, funding was made available to me by two amazing companies. The first was Mr. Rupert Roberts and Super Value Food Stores, and the second was Mrs. Stephanie Hanna and JS Johnson Insurance Company. Over the years, they have been great supporters of my overall mission, vision, and mandate: educating and documenting the notable Bahamian hurricanes over the last five hundred years. These two companies’ direct funding provided me with the means and the opportunity to travel to both islands on several occasions to conduct the critical research needed for this book. Quite frankly, it is impossible to get a complete picture of the incredible devastation on these two islands with just one trip. As a result, I had to make several trips to research, document, and interview persons about their recollections of the storm and the impact that this storm had on their lives and their respective islands. On the other hand, the funding of the book project was made available with grants from JS Johnson Insurance Company, Super Value Food Stores, d’Albenas Agency, Insurance Management, Insurance Company of the Bahamas, Royal Star Assurance, and Sunshine Insurance Companies. I must thank all of these great benefactors for their belief in me, my mission, and my vision of documenting these great storms that impacted the Bahamas over the years for Bahamians’ present and future generations.

My greatest love, pride, and joy as a Bahamian meteorologist, author, and hurricane historian is not to take part in a hurricane documentary or speak to a college, university, national archive, historical society, or library audience within the United States, Caribbean, China, or wherever I am requested to travel to talk about hurricanes. But, instead, it is to speak to the local Bahamian school students here in my home country. I try to encourage these students to reach for the skies, believe in themselves, and make our home country of the Bahamas the best little country in the whole wide world. The late visionary and motivational speaker and pastor Dr. Myles Munroe often told me that there is a potential future leader in everyone, including these students. If I can act as a catalyst to them realizing or accomplishing their respective dreams or goals, then my journey in this life will be worth it all.

After my second published book, I started a local tradition with the various Bahamian school students, both private and public institutions. This tradition was to take several signed copies of all my books on hurricanes to the speaking engagements and give them out after the talk or presentation to the students who asked me the most compelling or intellectual questions about hurricanes based on my speech. This kind gesture, on my part, was made to encourage them to think critically about how to research information and formulate questions based on the talk and instill overall confidence in themselves.

I found out the hard way that these students from different local private and public schools where I spoke previously on hurricanes do communicate among themselves. In addition, they are especially not good at keeping secrets when it comes to obtaining a free signed copy of any of my books. During my last talk to a particular school here in the Bahamas, as I walked in the door, all twenty-four students in the class quickly raised their hands in perfect unison. I guessed it was their hope of obtaining a free signed copy of one of my books. They all asked me questions about hurricanes without even hearing one word from my talk. A promise is a promise, so I quickly gave all seventeen signed copies to these philosophical and questions-driven students, and the seven remaining students got their books the following day. Today, this tradition continues. Hurricanes are a vital part of nature, and they do engender questions about them, and it is my hope and desire that you will get some of the answers you seek within this book.

INTRODUCTION

The seven hundred islands and cays that make up the Bahamas archipelago encompass a swath of land the size of Texas in the western Atlantic Ocean. The island of Bimini is the closest landmass to the US mainland, about seventy miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Hurricane Dorian in 2019 had spared all but two of the former British colony’s sixteen major islands: Grand Bahama, where the city of Freeport (the nation’s second city) is located, was hit hard, while the island and cays of Abaco were nearly obliterated— the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) estimated 90 percent of Abaco’s structures were destroyed. According to the WFP, seventy thousand people were in drastic need of housing and shelter on the two islands, respectively the second and third most popular tourist destinations in the Bahamas. Nassau, meanwhile, remained virtually unscathed, with cruise ships and airplanes arriving and departing regularly without any interruptions.

According to the Bahamas Department of Statistics chief statistician Kim Saunders, the population demographics profiles of the two islands Abaco and Grand Bahama, evaluated by the IDB, allowed estimates on the relative extent of the effects and the population potentially affected by Hurricane Dorian. According to the 2010 Bahamas Census population statistics compiled by the Bahamas Department of Statistics, the population of the Bahamas was 351,461, with 246,329 residing in New Providence (Nassau) and 51,756 residing in Grand Bahama. The projected population statistics of the Bahamas as of 2019 were 385,340, with 275,800 living in New Providence (Nassau) and 56,260 living in Grand Bahama. Abaco and Grand Bahama had a total population of 73,673 inhabitants. An examination of the density by island indicates that Grand Bahama has the third-highest population density at 106 people per square mile, encompassing 530 square miles.

In contrast, Abaco has a population density of twenty-seven people per square mile, encompassing 649 square miles. According to Saunders, the projections of the Bahamas Department of Statistics regarding the 2019 figures for the total population of Grand Bahama was 56,260, of which 48.7 percent were men and 51.3 percent were women. On the other hand, it is the opposite of Abaco, with more men (51.7 percent) than women (48.3 percent). The total population projection for Abaco was 17,413 (Saunders, Statistician 2021).

Between 2010 and 2019, the population of Abaco increased by 1.1 percent, while the population of Grand Bahama expanded by 8.7 percent. According to the 2010 Census of Population and Housing in the Bahamas, those islands represented about 19.5 percent of the country´s total population. The population distribution among these islands, concerning the national total, is 4.9 percent on Abaco and 14.6 percent on Grand Bahama. The assessment of the effects with regard to the age structure of Abaco and Grand Bahama, both islands have remarkably similar percentages of the working-age population (fifteen to sixty-four years), children (those under fifteen years), and the elderly (persons over sixty-four years).

According to the 2010 Census, 17.3 percent of the population of the Bahamas were citizens of another country, which was an increase of 4.6 percent from 2000, when the non-Bahamian population represented 12.7 percent of the total population. Most non-Bahamians come from Haiti (64.4 percent), Jamaica (9.2 percent), and the United States of America (7.2 percent). Both affected islands had most non-Bahamians from Haiti, followed by the United States of America and Jamaica. On Grand Bahama, there were 2,696 persons of Haitian nationality, 925 persons from the United States of America, and 575 from Jamaica. On Abaco, the Haitian population accounted for 4,486 persons of the total population, with 331 persons from the United States of America and 119 persons from Jamaica (Bank, Inter-American Development Bank-Assessment of the Effects and Impacts of Hurricane Dorian in The Bahamas. 2020).

Around the globe, eighty to one hundred tropical storms are seen every year, unevenly distributed across the Pacific, Indian, and North Atlantic Oceans. About half reach hurricane strength, and a smaller percentage, about one-fourth, become major hurricanes. Thus, the generic term tropical cyclone can describe tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons. While most tropical cyclones complete their lifecycle without impacting any land area, many each year cause catastrophic damage and loss of life to coastal nations, including the Bahamas. Over the last one hundred years, the Bahamas was hit by many powerful hurricanes that trekked across the North Atlantic region. Like all other islands in the West Indies, the Bahamas is quite vulnerable to tropical cyclones. The Bahamas is one of the most active areas hit by hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic. The Bahamas gets brushed or hit by a hurricane once every three years and a major hurricane once every twelve years. Three Bahamian islands are ranked in the top-ten effects from tropical systems of all cities, islands, and countries in the North Atlantic basin: Andros, Abaco, and Grand Bahama.

The mighty embryo of Dorian developed initially from a weak perturbation in the easterlies followed by a weak tropical wave in the northeasterly trade winds on August 24, 2019, as it moved through the Lesser Antilles and morphed into a full-fledged hurricane just north of the Greater Antilles. This monster hurricane then went under a rapid intensification phase over the following days before releasing its wrath on the Bahamas at peak category 5 hurricane intensity of sustained winds reaching 185 mph and barometric pressure of 910 hPa (26.87 inches) on September 1, 2019, while breaking numerous records in the process. The hurricanes that impacted the Bahamas in the past ten years before Dorian in 2019 (Irma in 2017, Matthew in 2016, Joaquin in 2015, and Sandy in 2012) had long proved to be weak or mild harbingers of what was to come along with the monster of a hurricane we called Hurricane Dorian. A massive flood and record-breaking powerful winds catastrophe ensued—worse than any before or since—spurred by an improbable source: a massive one-of-a-kind hurricane named Dorian. A prolonged and punishing torrent of rain and sustained winds pushed the generally benevolent and tourism-friendly islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama to unprecedented destructive heights that, even to this day, years later, they have still not rebounded from yet, nor it is anticipated that they will recover anytime soon from the fury of Dorian.

The 2019 North Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth in a consecutive series of above-average intensity and damaging hurricane seasons. It saw eighteen named storms, of which six strengthened to hurricanes and three were major hurricanes. In October 2016, Hurricane Matthew passed through the chain of islands, varying between category 3 and category 4 intensity levels that left widespread damage in its path. Nearly a year later, Hurricane Irma tore through the country as a category 4 storm in September 2017, rendering many smaller islands uninhabitable in the short term and changing the daily life in those areas in the long term. Finally, in September 2019, the world watched as category 5 Hurricane Dorian rained havoc down on the Bahamian islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco and their communities, erasing any normal life in some neighborhoods, leaving behind a trail of heartbreak, sorrow, and death.

Hurricane Dorian’s most significant impact was felt on Grand Bahama and Abaco, although some effects also occurred on the island of New Providence. Damages resulted from the high winds and massive storm surges. In addition, they were further exacerbated by poor construction practices, low-lying vulnerable communities, and infrastructures located in very risky coastal areas. Given the magnitude of this event, the reconstruction efforts will last many years, and it will require significant assistance from the government, private sector, and financial institutions. Reconstruction on Abaco and Grand Bahama is expected to be a long-term process that tests the strength and resolve of a country’s people and institutions. However, it is essential that those directly affected by the hurricane disaster feel the presence and solidarity of the government throughout the process.

Contrary to how many weather maps appear, a hurricane is more than just a point on a weather map, and its path is more than a line. Hurricanes, on average, kill about ten thousand persons worldwide each year. However, an extensive system can affect a wide area far before the storm’s landfall, requiring that precautions be taken far from where the eye is forecast to come ashore. This book examines and showcases the different aspects and repercussions of Hurricane Dorian’s disaster, which will help the reader better understand the impact and dynamics of hurricane hazards.

The catastrophic losses incurred from Hurricane Dorian have and will continue to impact the livelihoods of thousands of Bahamians into the near and distant future. In addition to the billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructural storm damage to the Bahamian economy in 2019, its impact was intensive and far-reaching. This hurricane presented significant and unique challenges for the Bahamas with its tourism interdependent economy. Therefore, hurricane preparedness and rescue and recovery capacity are critical areas that must be examined when looking at past or future hurricanes. However, with many others, the Bahamas was not as fortunate to be spared, and as a result, these two islands felt the full brunt of the fury of this notable and very devastating storm. This category 5 behemoth rampaged through the northwestern Bahamas with record-setting rainfall and strong wind speeds. It then lethally paused its forward motion over Grand Bahama for more than two days, allowing its destructive eyewall to spin in place as the storm became quasi-stationary for over twenty-four hours. As a result of the significant death toll and destruction caused by Dorian, the storm’s name was still not officially retired until spring 2021 by the World Meteorological Organization’s-Region IV Committee. This committee is the United Nations’ subgroup that determines which hurricane names in the past season need to be retired and which will be used in upcoming years. A nation hardest hit by a storm can request its name be retired because the storm was so deadly or costly that future use of the name would be insensitive or confusing to history.

Because of the disastrous effects of Dorian, particularly in the Bahamas, the name was expected to be retired. However, the 2020 meeting was online and shortened because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the meeting did not have time for storm-name retirements. Instead, selected storm retirement names from the 2019 and 2020 tropical storm seasons were chosen in the spring of 2021 meeting by member countries of this region. The practice of naming storms (tropical cyclones) began years ago to help quickly identify storms in warning messages because names are presumed to be far easier to remember than numbers and technical terms, the WMO explained.

During the spring of 2021 meeting, the committee also decided that Greek letters would no longer be used to name tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced. The Greek alphabet will never be used again as it was distracting and confusing, the WMO stated on March 17, 2021. The WMO also retired the names of three especially devastating hurricanes from the 2020 season: Laura, Eta, and Iota. In addition, from the 2019 North Atlantic hurricane season, the name Dorian was also retired. During a WMO’s Region IV Hurricane Committee meeting, they made this decision. This committee meets every year to determine which storms caused so much damage and death during the prior hurricane season that they should remove them from the rotating lists of future storm names. The WMO’s Region IV Hurricane Committee also discussed 2020 names recently because the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the 2020 meeting.

The 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season was so active that forecasters resorted to naming storms with letters from the Greek alphabet for only the second time in history. There are twenty-four letters in the Greek alphabet that were allowed for use. It turns out it was the final time. Alphabetical lists of names for North Atlantic tropical cyclones repeat every six years. There are twenty-one names per list, and the names that have been retired are replaced with names that start with the same letter and sex. In the past, the Greek alphabet was used when there were more storms in a single hurricane season than names on the list. That has only happened twice, in 2005 and 2020. Last year’s North Atlantic hurricane season was the most active on record. In 2006, the committee agreed that it was not practical to retire Greek names because they are infrequently used.

If the committee had stuck to their 2006 decision, then, this year, Eta and Iota would have remained in rotation, but Eta 2020 and Iota 2020 would be added to the list of retired names. However, Eta and Iota forced the WMO to reconsider those plans. The two storms killed 272 people and caused $9 billion in damages across Central America. There was no formal plan for retiring Greek names, and the future use of these names would be inappropriate, the WMO said. Since 1953, when storms began to be named under the current system, ninety-three names have been retired from the North Atlantic basin list.

The Region IV committee decided that they would no longer use the Greek alphabet in the future because doing so creates a distraction from the communication of the hazard and storm warnings and is potentially confusing. The WMO gave a list of more reasons why it is now decided to abandon the Greek alphabet altogether. The use of the Greek alphabet generated many headlines in 2020 because it was so rare, but that took attention away from the actual impacts of the storms, the WMO said. On top of that, the names can be confusing when translated into other languages. Similar-sounding letters—zeta, eta, and theta—also caused some miscommunications.

The WMO decided to replace the Greek alphabet with a supplemental list of names. Like the standard list of names, that supplementary list will also be based on the modern English alphabet, excluding Q, U, X, Y, and Z. Meteorologists skip over these letters because of a paucity of names that begin with these letters. The WMO said in a press release that names starting with those letters are not common enough or easily understood in local languages to be slotted into the rotating lists. Dexter replaced the name Dorian. Dorian struck the Bahamas as a devastating category 5 storm, damaging over 75 percent of all the Abaco and eastern Grand Bahama Islands homes. The name Leah replaced Laura. Hurricane Laura was responsible for forty-seven deaths and more than $19 billion in destruction in the United States and Hispaniola. The hurricane committee agreed to a new supplemental list of North Atlantic tropical cyclone names in place of using the Greek alphabet (Calma, Greek letters ‘will never be used again’ to name hurricanes. 2021).

Hurricanes don’t care about international boundaries. We all face similar dangers from tropical systems. A single storm can affect multiple countries, so we must have a plan, coordinate our efforts, and share challenges and best practices, said Ken Graham, former hurricane committee chair for the WMO and former National Hurricane Center director.

Evan Thompson, head of Jamaica’s national meteorological service, said, We cannot prevent this incredible force of nature, but we do have the power to minimize the loss of life and property through cutting-edge forecasts, warnings, and strong regional coordination and cooperation. Thompson also serves as the president of WMO’s Region IV Association for North America, Central America, and the Caribbean (Mitchell, Accuweather 2019).

The North Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1. But over the past six years, significant storms have been forming earlier than this. So, does the hurricane season need to start earlier—and is climate change to blame? At a regional meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Region IV, on March 17, 2021, meteorologists and officials discussed a possible change to how the hurricane season is defined.

The 2020 hurricane season was one of the most challenging in the 40-year history of [the] WMO’s Tropical Cyclone Program, says WMO secretary-general Prof. Petteri Taalas. The record number of hurricanes combined with COVID-19 to create, literally, the perfect storm.

The hurricane season has officially started on June 1, since the mid-1960s, when hurricane reconnaissance planes would start routine trips into the North Atlantic to spot storm development. Over the past ten to fifteen years, though, named storms have formed before the official start about 50 percent of the time. And the way they are defined and observed has changed significantly over time.

Many of these storms are short-lived systems that are now being identified because of better monitoring and policy changes that now name sub-tropical storms, said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist at the US National Hurricane Center (NHC). Discussions will need to be made on the need for and potential ramifications of moving the beginning of the hurricane season to May 15, he concluded (King, Should the hurricane season begin earlier? 2021).

The 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season was the most active on record, with thirty named storms. Two of those storms—Arthur and Bertha—formed in May. During the Region IV hurricane committee meeting on March 17, 2021, the member countries determined that more discussions were needed before this could occur.

Nearly two weeks after Dorian’s first landfall, the United Nations secretary-general, Mr. António Guterres, said he had never seen such a level of systemic devastation after visiting the island of Abaco. He referred to Hurricane Dorian not as a category 5 hurricane but rather category hell. The then Bahamian prime minister Rt. Hon. Hubert Minnis broke down in tears as he addressed a news conference after visiting Abaco and Grand Bahama, calling it probably the saddest and worst day of my life. Hurricane Dorian inflicted hurricane-force winds on Abaco for more than twenty-four hours and then moved on to Grand Bahama, where hurricane-force winds persisted for more than forty-eight hours. The level of destruction is reminiscent of the Great Abaco Hurricane of 1932’s landfall on Abaco with similar strength and track. In 1932, this storm killed eighteen persons, damaged or destroyed 90 percent of the island’s structures, and prompted the creation of a new settlement called Murphy Town because of the destruction of the settlement of Bluff Point.

Dorian has left several large historical footprints on these archipelagic islands in the sands of time. The most significant was the destruction of several settlements and the considerable death toll over Abaco and Grand Bahama islands, which before Dorian was never seen in the modern era. The astronomical loss of lives and many additional missing persons made it an even greater disaster. It is the strongest category 5 hurricane to impact the Bahamas on record. Sustained winds were estimated to be more than 185 mph and a storm surge of over twenty-one to twenty-eight feet in some areas. The effects of Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas were among the worst experiences of any natural disaster in the country over the last five hundred years. The cyclone then stalled over Grand Bahama for another day, finally moving away from the island on September 3, 2019. Damage from Dorian amounted to US$3.4 billion, which is shocking because the tourism industry accounts for over 70 percent of the $5.7 billion GDP of the Bahamas each year. The costs consist of three elements:

1) Direct physical damage.

2) Revenue and other income losses.