Last of Its Kind - First of This Kind:: Early 1990S Senate Campaigns - Transformed from Ordinary to Calls for More Women & Change

By Scott Crass

It was a tale of two cycles. The 1990 Senate election landscape rewarded popular incumbents and was largely devoid of national themes. There were colorful, headline grabbing moments and a near-shocker or two yet all but one Senator seeking another term was granted it. The 1992 landscape had no such clarity. A downward economy sparked the call for new ideas and backlash from the Clarence Thomas-Anita Hill sexual harassment hearings started a furious movement that led to the “Year of the Woman.” Both themes converged to set the stage for “change.” The precursor was an unexpected race in Pennsylvania between those two cycles that, but for a plane crash would not have happened. This book profiles the most competitive races of those cycles. Readers will become acquainted with the issues, personalities and the men and women who personified the status quo, change and everything in between.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Xlibris US
• Release date: Jul 24, 2022
• ISBN: 9781669827955

Scott Crass

The author’s first word could easily have been “politics.” Scott Crass’s passion for politics may have been fueled by his first book on U.S. presidents, given to him by his mother, Madeline, at the ripe young age of 5. He quickly wore out the pages, prompting his mother to buy a replacement. Scott has been a devoted student of Presidential and Congressional politics ever since. Scott obtained his B.A. in Political Science and Communications from Monmouth University in Long Branch, N.J., and achieved his M.A. in Counseling at the same institution. A New Jersey native, Scott has always been drawn to his beloved Jersey Shore, where he enjoys spending much of his free time. Besides politics and the Shore, Scott is a fan of music of all kinds, including oldies, swing, Strauss waltzes and the sounds of another Jersey treasure, Frank Sinatra. He lives in South Brunswick, N.J and thrives by a personal motto, “Failure is only our enemy if it does not serve as our guide.”

Book preview

LAST OF ITS KIND -

FIRST OF THIS KIND:

Early 1990s Senate Campaigns -

Transformed from Ordinary to Calls for More

Women & Change

SCOTT CRASS

Copyright © 2022 by Scott Crass.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the copyright owner.

Any people depicted in stock imagery provided by Getty Images are models, and such images are being used for illustrative purposes only.

Certain stock imagery © Getty Images.

Rev. date: 07/21/2022

Xlibris

844-714-8691

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Table of Contents

Prologue

Dedication

Chapter 1     One For The Ages: Helms’ Unrestrained, Racially Tinged Attacks Thwarted Gantt’s Chances of Becoming North Carolina’s First African-American Senator

Chapter 2     The Hatfield Magic In Oregon Enough For Longtime Pol To Stave Off Complacency And Late Surge From Lonsdale

Chapter 3     Wellstone’s Energy, Altruism and Boschwitz’s Missteps Made Him Only Challenger To Win Senate Seat In 1990

Chapter 4     Basketball Star Bradley Nearly Let The Ball Get Away In Squeaker Against Little Known Whitman

Chapter 5     Simon, The Frontrunner Throughout Expected Close Race With Martin But Authenticity Seals The Deal

Chapter 6     In Defeating Tauke, Harkin Became First Iowa Democrat To Win Second Term

Chapter 7     Rhode Islanders Shrugged Off Questions of Pell’s Effectiveness To Rebuke Schneider’s Call To Look Toward Future

Chapter 8     Akaka’s Special Election Win Over Saiki Preserved Hawaii’s Strong Democratic Tendencies

Chapter 9     Republican Nebraska Was No Hindrance For Exon’s Grandfatherly Demeanor In Race Against Pit-Bill Daub

Chapter 10   Kerry Had Unexpected Scare Ala Dukakis’s Low Approvals and Rappaport’s Big Money

Chapter 11    McConnell’s First Re-election Proved His Staying Power and Solidified His Ruthlessness

Chapter 12   In 1990, South Dakotans Sent Pressler A Warning Sign That Their Elvis Had Left the Building

Chapter 13   Coats Made Strong Enough Impression As Appointed Senator To Win Right To Complete Quayle’s Term

Chapter 14   Harris Who Turned Upset Senate Win Into Precursor For Bill Clinton A Year Later

Chapter 15   D’Amato Fended Off A Nest of Scorpions Following A New York Style Slugfest To Clinch Third Term

Chapter 16   Already Endangered, Specter’s Interrogation of Anita Hill Produced Race Of Political Life Against Yeakel

Chapter 17   Packwood/AuCoin Race Lived Up To Top Billing Entire Cycle

Chapter 18   Moseley-Braun Made History By Dethroning Dixon And Weathering Serious Personal Scrutiny In The Fall

Chapter 19   In California, Boxer and Feinstein’s Election Meant The Year of the Woman Times Two

Chapter 20   By Sending Murray To The Senate, Washington Voters Made Her The Cinderella of the Political Scene

Chapter 21   Ingenuous Ads and Shunning Squabbling Propelled Feingold Past Better-Known Primary Rivals and A Weak Incumbent in November

Chapter 22   Glenn Hung On But S&L Proved Sole Impediment to His Blasting Off to Fourth Term

Chapter 23   Sanford’s Determination To Become Turnaround Terry Thwarted By Heart Surgery At Campaign’s End

Chapter 24   Perpetual Irreverence and Gulf War Vote Tested Hollings’ Durability Against Hartnett as GOP Sought Southern Inroads

Chapter 25   Braves Fan Fowler’s Race Went Into Extra Innings As Coverdell Nipped Him In A Rare Georgia Runoff

Chapter 26   Though Gregg Prevailed, Rauh Nearly Dented The Granite State’s Staunch Republicanism

Chapter 27   Rothman-Serot Tried To Expand The Year of the Woman But Bond Took Race Seriously

Acknowledgements

Sources

COVER IMAGES

Top Row: Paul Simon (D-Illinois); Mark Hatfield (R-Oregon); Claiborne Pell (D-Rhode Island); Harvey Gantt (D-North Carolina); Pat Saiki (R-Hawaii)

Middle Row - Democratic female Senate candidates attend a Washington D.C. fundraiser on September 23, 1992. From Left to Right: Claire Sargent (D-Arizona), Senator Barbara Mikulski (Maryland), future Senator Patty Murray (Washington), Geri Rothman-Serot (Missouri), future Senator Carol Moseley-Braun (Illinois), Lynn Yeakel (Pennsylvania), Jean Lloyd-Jones (Iowa), future Senator Dianne Feinstein (California) and Gloria O’Dell (Kansas) Not Pictured: future Senator Barbara Boxer (California)

Bottom Row: Harris Wofford (D-Pennsylvania); Russ Feingold (D-Wisconsin) with Elvis; Terry Sanford (D-North Carolina); Arlen Specter (R-Pennsylvania)

PROLOGUE

P revious books that I have written encompassed Congressional characters. Each chapter was based on a specific member of either the House or Senate who had a story that needed to be told. Statesmen and Mischief Makers was a three-part series that portrayed members of Congress and governors from the eras of John F. Kennedy through Ronald Reagan. Departures on the House was my next endeavor with a different twist. It depicted members of the House of Representatives who left office in 1992. Esoteric it was but redistricting, retirements and the House Bank scandal resulted in the turnover of 110 seats and as an 18-year-old political junkie, I was fascinated. The book that immediately preceded this one was Beloved Workhorses which had an inherently positive theme. It portrayed roughly 50 House members from both parties during the early 1990s that didn’t have an enemy within. They were men and a few women (females in Congress were sparse and as you’ll see in this prologue, vastly underrepresented) who were greatly respected on both sides of the aisle. These were first-rate individuals without massive egos who were soft-spoken and truly cared about public policy.

This book is different. There are plenty of characters, but they fall under the theme of campaigns, not members of Congress. The time period is still between 1990 and 1992 but the place this time is not the U.S. Capitol but rather the states that sent them there. Last of Its Kind - First of This Kind is a rundown of competitive races for the United States Senate during all three of those years (a plane crash in Pennsylvania in 1991 necessitated a special election in a year that normally would have been without). Like my earlier pursuits, these Senate races occurred against the backdrop of national themes such as poor economic conditions or the Year of the Woman. They featured ingenuity, a new way of getting attention (usually in the form of creative ads by the candidates) and in many of these races, men and suddenly women who related directly to regular people. These cycles were also arguably the last that lacked intense polarization and ideological pigeonholing. Democrats could still win races in states that did not lean their way at the national level while the right kind of Republican, often incumbents, could hold seats in environments that were against their party, in some cases dramatically.

The cycles I profile are noteworthy too in that one served as a transition to the next - and the unexpected election in between played a big role. Consider this: 1990 was a fairly dormant cycle, at least as far as national themes were concerned. The year had several high-visibility Senate contests and the scorched earth re-election campaign of North Carolina Senator Jesse Helms is exhibit one, two and three. Yet most of those races were conducted more on issues relative to their candidates’ respective states. Aside from disarray from the budget stalemate that dragged uncomfortably close to Election Day, 1990 was generally devoid of national themes. The 1991 special and 1992 regular elections offered no such thing. What transpired?

The contracting economy and Pennsylvania Democratic candidate Harris Wofford’s relentless promotion of a healthcare system put the Keystone State in the limelight during that special and his win carried that over to the Presidential landscape in 1992. Naturally, that ricocheted up and down the Democratic ballot. The Clarence Thomas and Anita Hill hearings in October 1991 was another galvanizing event and one that was a calling for more female representation. As I’ll profile, a number of females, including seeming long-shots heeded calls to enter the races. Most were nominated and several won and that jolted the entire political world. All of those factors led to a single word: change and in 1992 that was the main ideal that wasn’t present two years before. Bill Clinton’s adoption of that theme at the Presidential level gave it more weight on the Democratic side while also having the effect of forcing Republican candidates to adapt to some degree. Though the number of Senators who lost in 1992 was greater than two years earlier – five as opposed to one, many other races were razor tight, and more Senators headed for the doors by simply declining to seek re-election. Frustration via gridlock was the cause for many but low approval ratings were the culprit behind convincing others to call it a career.

How do I explain my interest in this topic? My love during my pre-teen years was the presidency. I knew next to nothing about the United States Senate through age 14 in the fall of 1988 except that it was a body of a Legislative branch. Save for commercials and news coverage about the race between incumbent Democrat Senator Frank Lautenberg and Republican Pete Dawkins in my home state of New Jersey, I was impervious to the context of the campaigns and its consequences. That likely changed around election night when I watched NBC’s coverage of the George H.W. Bush - Michael Dukakis Presidential election when run-downs of Senate winners and yet-to-be-decided races were interspersed. Lautenberg was declared over Dawkins and an Attorney General in Connecticut named Joe Lieberman began leading incumbent Republican Lowell Weicker, an institution in the Nutmeg State. The name Joe Lieberman meant something to me – my family attended the then Highland Park Conservative Temple and Center in Highland Park, New Jersey where another, much older Joe Lieberman was a prominent member close with my grandparents. It wasn’t long before the Lieberman of Connecticut was projected the winner in a major upset, though it was close enough that Weicker did not concede until two days later.

The only other Senate race that stood out to me that night was a cliffhanger in Florida. Two Congressmen, Democrat Buddy MacKay and Republican Connie Mack, battled to come out on top for a seat being vacated by the venerable Democratic incumbent Lawton Chiles. As a Democrat, I was rooting for MacKay but that race was uncalled by the time I went to bed and without the Internet and most other forms of instant news in those days, I had no mechanism to find out who won. It took weeks before I got my hands on an Almanac that showed MacKay’s victory, so I was startled on opening day of the new Congress when new Senators appeared on the Today Show and Connie Mack was introduced as the new Senator. The explanation was that MacKay led on election night and many outlets projected him the winner but Republican-heavy absentees put Mack over the top the next morning. The Almanac obviously went to print failing to update those figures.

By early 1989, the news media (which for me was limited to regular TV and not CNN), the advent of the Bush Administration, and general politics were making me more aware of political figures in the Legislative Branch. This enabled me to become acclimated with issues of the day. Before long, I could name all 100 Senators and was well-versed on their records, ideology and key votes. Thus, I knew which Senators I liked and who I wanted permanently removed from office. The term of a U.S. Senator is six years so only a third of the seats came up in 1990 but it was my first cycle and it was shaping up to be a spirited year. Therefore, summer afternoons at the Oakcrest Swim Club in Edison, New Jersey found me hitting tennis balls against the racquet heavily engrossed in the political landscape and what might occur.

The 1990 Lay of the Land

The approaching election season offered anticipation for the following year on a variety of fronts. Democrats were hoping to expand their 55-45 seat majority while the GOP was hoping to pare it down, if not eliminate it entirely and use a strong showing to set the stage for gaining control in 1992. Achieving this would be a rare, history-bucking feat. Bush was President and commonly during the 20th Century, the party holding the White House lost seats in a Congressional midterm. Still, Republicans took heart from the fact that Democrats had a number of incumbents who, for a variety of reasons, were expected to sweat if they wanted new terms.

Paul Simon – the Senator, not the singer, topped the list. The Illinoisian had only captured his first term by two percentage points in 1984 but ran a well-meaning and ultimately hapless bid for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 1988 which hurt him back home. Iowa, which elected Tom Harkin in 1984, had never re-elected a Democratic Senator and the GOP was hoping to keep it that way. Next door in Nebraska, Jim Exon was an indomitable force for two decades. This included an eight-year stint as Governor, which changed in ‘84 when he was almost knocked out by an underfunded challenger. While Ronald Reagan’s strong showing in the Cornhusker State was largely the culprit, the question of whether Exon had regained his invincibility was still out. Carl Levin of Michigan had also underperformed slightly in 1984, though not as drastically as Exon. In Rhode Island, five-termer Claiborne Pell had neither the troubles of being unknown nor of underperforming but, having recently passed his 70th birthday was dogged by questions even from his own party of whether his best legislative days were behind him.

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For much of the 1990 cycle, the race between Democratic Senator Paul

Simon and Republican Congresswoman Lynn Martin was expected to

be the most competitive in the nation. It ended immensely one-sided

Photo courtesy of The Chicago Sun Times

Not every Republican incumbent was safe and the obstreperous Jesse Helms of North Carolina who couldn’t stand any liberal he met was first, second and third on the vulnerability scale. The only other highly endangered Republican at that point appeared to be Senator Mitch McConnell, a Kentuckian who six years earlier used clever ads dogging an incumbent with bloodhounds to highlight his poor attendance. McConnell squeaked past the incumbent and scored the upset of the year and now Democrats wanted blood of their own. Republicans were also watching Dan Coats, a former House member who had been appointed to fill the seat Dan Quayle vacated when he became Vice President but Coats was well out in front. Other GOP incumbents including Mark Hatfield of Oregon, Rudy Boschwitz of Minnesota, and Larry Pressler of South Dakota were thought to be safe though to Republicans chagrin, that would change as the cycle hummed along.

A far bigger concern for Republicans were incumbents who could decide to call it quits and it began materializing rather early in the cycle. Colorado Republican Senator William Armstrong was first out of the gate and announced in February 1989 that he would not stand for re-election. Another Republican, Gordon Humphrey of New Hampshire followed three weeks later. Both men were in their second terms and relatively young but never intended to make politics a career.

Holding Colorado and New Hampshire weren’t particularly worrisome for the GOP but there were other potential retirees in states that could easily be up for grabs were that to happen. Kansas was one such place. Republican Senator Nancy Kassebaum was beyond safe but she was not shy about expressing the sentiment that two terms are enough. Hatfield would turn 68 in 1990 and had held elective office since 1950, including eight years as Governor. The party worried that long cross-country commutes from the west coast would be decisive in convincing him to call it a career. And there was Helms. At 69, it wasn’t clear whether he wanted to stay. What was clear was that former Governor Jim Hunt, the man Helms held off in a nationally-watched battle of the titans in 1984, was on overdrive for Democratic recruiters regardless of what Helms decided. While the prospect of facing Hunt supposedly figured long and hard into his mind, speculation was he was more likely to stay if it meant keeping Hunt out of the seat. Ultimately, all three Senators gave Republicans a sigh of relief and opted to continue.

One Senator not on any retirement watch lists was 87-year-old South Carolinian Strom Thurmond who declared his plans to seek a new six-year term well before the cycle got underway. No prominent Democrat even hinted about challenging the man who had been a thorn in the spine of President Harry S. Truman’s re-election plans more than four decades earlier. The only other Republican who called it quits that cycle was Jim McClure, 66, a three-termer from Idaho but when ex-Governor John Evans, whom Democrats wanted to recruit said no it was soon clear that his seat would stay in the GOP fold.

If Republicans were going to buck history and gain seats, they’d require strong contenders to charge at the other side. They marked their turf by landing five sitting House members and one former to take on six Democratic incumbents they considered vulnerable for a variety of reasons. Three were women, including Lynn Martin of Illinois, Claudine Schneider of Rhode Island and Pat Saiki of Hawaii (the latter was an unexpected vacancy caused by a death that I’ll explain later). The other recruits included Tom Tauke of Iowa and Bill Schuette of Michigan, along with Hal Daub of Nebraska who left Congress in 1988. A trio of other GOP Congressman including Hank Brown of Colorado, Larry Craig of Idaho and Robert Bob Smith of New Hampshire announced for the Armstrong, McClure and Humphrey open seats and were considered favorites for November. Early in the cycle, Republicans also had hopes of tying down Howell Heflin of Alabama and landed a strong candidate in State Senator Bill Cabaniss. Heflin disabused them of any endangered status through his popularity and by defining Grey Poupon Republicans as the Gucci-clothed, Mercedes-diving, jacuzzi-soaking, Perrier-drinking kind of folks.

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Photo Courtesy of Distinctive Collections,

University of Rhode Island Library

Democrats, already in the majority, had less to lose in the recruiting department but their quest to add a handful to their ranks was stymied by an inability to land A level candidates in key GOP held seats. Minnesota topped the charts. Ex-Vice President Walter Mondale toyed with going after Boschwitz and returning to Washington but bowed out early, explaining that he and his wife had grown accustomed to life in Minnesota. In Idaho, Evans told a similar story but took it literally down to the wire. He lost a hard-fought race to the state’s junior Senator, Steve Symms in 1986 and was within an hour of declaring his candidacy for McClure’s seat when his wife told him a squirrel had caused mischief in their yard. That was enough to cancel out whatever apparently limited Potomac fever Evans had and he decided to pass. In Colorado, popular ex-Governor Richard Lamm declined to throw his hat into the ring for Armstrong’s seat. The hardest-felt loss was Hunt declining a rematch with Helms because without him, any other Democrat no matter how capable would be second tier if not lower. Democrats did win over Louisville Mayor Harvey Sloane to go after McConnell and were determined to keep that race on the board.

As 1989 moved into ’90 and filing deadlines passed, four Senators - two Democrats and two Republicans found themselves in the enviable position of facing no opposition from the other party and three lacked an opponent completely. Virginia Republican John Warner would be challenged by Independent Nancy Spannous while no one filed against Mississippi Republican Thad Cochran or Arkansas Democrat David Pryor. In Georgia, Mrs. Hubert R. Etchison, a complete unknown who would not so much as provide her first name, attempted to take on the hapless task of thwarting powerful Democratic Senator Sam Nunn’s bid for a fourth term but the $2,952 check she submitted on the final day of qualifying for the ballot bounced. State Republicans, not wanting a possible White House aspirant to go unopposed, made her an offer – submit the money by a new deadline but accompany it with a letter withdrawing her candidacy in the event of another case of insufficient funds. She did just that and petitioned the Secretary of State in a contribution of honor letter to remove her name from the ballot. This unofficially meant Nunn had cinched a new term. The Senate landscape incidentally also featured three Democrats who would one day become standard bearers for their party at the national level including two vice-presidents (Joe Biden and Al Gore), a Secretary of State (John Kerry) and a man who 30 years later would finally capture the top prize himself (Biden).

A plethora of hot Governor’s races also competed for my attention in 1990, particularly as the cycle dragged on. The main national focus was on whether the GOP could hold onto the big three in the Sun Belt and a loss of Florida, Texas or California would endanger their hopes of redrawing the Congressional lines in their favor. The Democratic candidates in those states were luminaries of the past and future: Lawton Chiles, Ann Richards and Dianne Feinstein respectively. A loss of all three, which seemed distinctly possible, would prove disastrous. Open seats in Ohio, Massachusetts and Illinois were also intriguing as were smaller statehouses where incumbents were fighting for their political lives (Kansas, Nebraska, Maine, Rhode Island and Minnesota.) Yet because the issues I cared most about were taken up by Congress, the Senate races topped my interest.

In April of 1990, Democratic incumbent Spark Matsunaga died of cancer at age 73. Matsanuga’s term did not expire until 1994 and Hawaii’s Governor was a Democrat. The man he appointed was longtime Congressman, Daniel Akaka who would hold the seat until a special election could be held that November. Republicans, led by Bush, successfully persuaded Akaka’s colleague Saiki to give up her House seat to make the run which guaranteed a marquee race come fall.

By summer, it was clear that things were not going according to Republican plans. As I’ll explore in the respective chapters, Martin’s bid to oust Simon was met by stumble after stumble and his lead was becoming unreachable. Harkin was keeping his distance with Tauke, though there were ebbs and flows. In Rhode Island, polls showed Pell had little to worry about though the age--Exon and Levin were well outside the margin for concern. Only Hawaii was poised to remain a tossup. The one nerve-wracking news for Democrats: bad economic conditions and poor approvals of Governor Michael Dukakis in Massachusetts now threatened to tie down Kerry. His opponent was high-spending millionaire James Rappaport whose Jaws ad linking Kerry to Dukakis (he’s back) won national acclaim.

Worse, GOP incumbents thought relatively safe were suddenly in nip’n’tuck races. Pressler of South Dakota said during the 1988 election, If Bush is President I’m not sure I could win in ’90, and various conditions were adding to the anti-incumbent flavor in his race against Ted Muenster. In Oregon, one-time-wonder Hatfield had a 36-point lead over businessman Harry Lonsdale that dwindled to just six in late September. Then there was the Minnesota race which had not been on the board one iota. It strained credulity that a little-known college professor named Paul Wellstone whom Boschwitz was outspending 7-1 could score an upset. Wellstone had managed to produce ads that mimicked Boschwitz for his large war chest and for refusing to debate. This caught the attention of voters and suddenly the incumbent held only a meager lead.

Colorado wasn’t exactly home free for the GOP either. Brown had always anticipated a tough race for Armstrong’s seat mostly because as he later recalled, Colorado was a swing state (and) it’s always been a swing state. Republicans in fact chose Brown for that very reason. Unlike Armstrong, he was pro-choice but also fiscally conservative which meant appeal to moderate voters and unaffiliated. His Democratic rival, Boulder County Commissioner Josie Heath seemed like a decent get on paper but wasn’t exactly intimidating either financially or in stature to Brown who as a congressman was viewed as a quasi-incumbent. Still, with the help of David Axelrod, already a prized consultant, she dominated during primary season over two men with a lot of establishment credibility (one was a former State Democratic chair who had been Gary Hart’s Chief of Staff). Heath had won her way, with much grassroots support without going negative and thought, I could win on a more positive message. I didn’t want to go negative. I guess it was just my own sense of values. That’s who I wanted to be. Her ambivalence cost her Axelrod’s services who thought that with Brown riding high in both polls and money, she’d need more than personal charm.

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Josie Heath hoped to put Colorado in play but was

thwarted by Brown’s perceived quasi-incumbency

Photo courtesy of Josie Heath

There was one development before the national election that generated headlines but, until the end, it was little more than a distraction for Republicans. In 1989, David Duke, a former grand wizard of the KKK, shocked the nation by winning a seat in the Louisiana House. The following year, Duke decided to take on entrenched Democratic Senator Bennett Johnston. At first, this brought grumbling but not concern. Conservative-leaning, Johnston’s chairmanship of the Senate Energy Committee made him highly influential in Washington and his voting record suited Louisiana like a glove.

The Bayou State’s method of electing Senators was to host an all-party primary on the first Saturday in October. Any candidate who cleared 50% was elected and if not, a runoff would be held the day of the general election in the 49 other states. Few thought a runoff would be required for the entrenched Johnston even without Duke but the presence of State Senator Ben Bagert made that a theoretical possibility though perhaps not theoretical enough for Republican comfort. In the days leading up to the vote, enough fear of Johnston falling below 50% loomed that eight moderate Republican Senators lent their backing to Johnston with one, John Danforth of Missouri saying all of us would be embarrassed and mortified to have to serve in the United States Senate with David Duke masquerading as a Republican. Bagert withdrew several days before the vote to give Johnston a better opportunity to clear 50%. He did but not by a mile. His 54% was only 10% above Duke’s 44% and the strong performance embarrassed and horrified many. Still, Johnston was safely back in Washington and the budget stalemate and forthcoming elections in the rest of the nation were taking precedence.

Things were quickly going south for incumbents of both parties but more so for Republicans. One culprit was the budget summit fiasco. In perhaps the most historic reversal of a campaign promise by any public official, Bush announced in late June that the no new taxes (read my lips) pledge he had taken when accepting the GOP nomination two years ago was no longer feasible and that revenue increases were necessary. Bush’s statement created anger and division among Republicans, many of whom suggested its impact on GOP candidates could be devastating. That was to be determined but the protracted budget summit fiasco didn’t help.

In early October, Congressional leaders of both parties agreed on a package that contained tax increases and spending cuts. Interest groups aligned with both sides felt it targeted the wrong people and the House rejected the conference report. Typically, Congress would adjourn around this time in order for members to focus on their re-election campaigns. Instead, the inability to agree on a budget forced lawmakers to remain in Washington for three additional weeks. The result was a lot of finger-pointing and the public noticed and it added to the steadily percolating anti-incumbent fever. A compromise was reached ten days before the election and members shuttled home to salvage their reputations and their political prospects.

By that time, Republican prospects were tanking in race after race. Hatfield was trailing Lonsdale while Boschwitz’s numbers against Wellstone were improving slightly but still precarious. Muenster’s uphill bid against Pressler was suddenly garnering attention and now a new worry loomed. McConnell, the Kentuckian who in September had seemed to reverse his vulnerability and open a 20-point lead over Sloane suddenly found his race in the home of the Derby becoming a horserace. He had to run an ad maintaining he believes everyone should pay their fair share of taxes including the rich. Even the ultra-safe Alan Simpson of Wyoming saw his numbers dip at least ten points though victory over college student, Kathy Helling, was never less than assured.

Democratic reach candidates kept plugging away with everything they had. Heath trailed Brown 50-30% as October got under way and finally concluded she had to swim among the sharks (she concedes she naively thought she could win on message). Her bait was the Denver based Silverado Savings and Loan where Bush’s son Neil was under investigation for approving shaky loans to target Brown. Nine people linked to Silverado had hosted a fundraiser for Brown and Heath said, Many people say he’s the poster boy for the S & L crisis. He’s got a lot of company. Brown later admitted he pretty well ignored her in terms of negative attacks. Just didn’t respond (to hers). Its impact was minimal. The budget stalemate sent Brown’s poll numbers dropping and the race remained on watch lists but he maintained enough distance so that the race was still his to lose.

In Idaho, State Senator Ron Twilegar won the right to likely lose to Craig though his use of the abortion issue during an October debate created fireworks which didn’t fizzle right away. A longtime abortion opponent, Craig was asked what he would do if his wife Suzanne became pregnant. Craig’s response was that he’d leave the decision to her to which Twilegar, after calling that ‘a change for the better, replied that Suzanne Craig would be the only woman in America who gets to make that choice. Craig’s response led to a brouhaha from both sides. One pro-choice activist called his apparent conversion just amazing while Right to Lifers vowed to get with him and find out what in the world he’s talking about." After a few days, Craig reassured anti-abortionists that he remained on their side and little more nationally was seen or heard from Idaho for the remainder of the campaign.

Not surprisingly, it was North Carolina that was garnering the most attention. Most polls showed Gantt with a narrow edge but it was the eight-point lead by The Charlotte Observer in the race’s final days that fueled hopes that an African-American could actually send Helms packing. Helms’ forces noticed it as well and responded by unleashing what to this day is viewed as among the most vitriolic of ads. It revolved around the Civil Rights Act of 1990 which Bush had vetoed under the guise of it mandating quotas in the workplace. The voiceover intoned, You needed that job and you were the most qualified. But they had to give it to a minority. The ad closed with white hands crumbling a rejection letter. The backlash was swift but many on both sides acknowledged it as a potential turning point because it played on the fears of white voters in the South who were looking for a reason to vote against an African-American candidate. The ad’s name incidentally: White Hands.

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The White Hands ad may have been the single most effective

and devastating in a Senate campaign in the 20th Century

Photo courtesy of The Raleigh News & Observer

Race-by-race aside, Republicans knew the climate was deteriorating but tried to put up a brave face. Don Nickels of Oklahoma who chaired the Senate Republican Campaign Committee (RSCC) told reporters, History says we’ll lose a couple of seats. I think we’ll do better than that. But I also won’t deny the last couple of weeks the president’s numbers have gone down… University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said, The burden’s on the Republicans now. They’re on the ropes and Bush has done them in. On the Sunday before the election, the White House Chief of Staff said he expected a net change of 1-2 seats in either direction.

Election night began with poll closings in Kentucky and Indiana at 6 p.m., Eastern, and by the time the CBS Evening News went on the air a half hour later, scattered returns were reported. Anchor Dan Rather, in what was no surprise here, declared Coats had held his seat. In Kentucky Mitch McConnell held a 51-49% lead over Sloane, coinciding with Democratic optimism about McConnell’s vulnerability in the cycle. It didn’t last long. By the end of the broadcast, McConnell was projected to have retained his seat. By 8 p.m., polls had been closed for 30 minutes in North Carolina and the Helms/Gantt race was unsurprisingly too close to call. Christine Todd Whitman separated Bill Bradley, the expected New Jersey runaway, by a few hundred votes. Bradley even trailed for a short time causing jaws to drop in the ballroom of The Somerset Manor where this author volunteered for a Congressional candidate and we awaited returns (the candidate, Marguerite Chandler, lost decisively).

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The re-election campaign of New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley (above) didn’t

land on radar screens until election night when anger over taxes in New

Jersey led to a neck and neck race with his unknown Republican challenger,

Christine Todd Whitman. The former New York Knicks Star eked it out

but quipped it had been years since a contest went into double-overtime.

Photo courtesy of The Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division

Shortly after 10 p.m., I left the ballroom for the lounge and asked the bartender to turn the television to CBS News. Dan Rather was projecting Senate winners in columns of threes (Craig, Simon, Coats.) Even though Bradley was up by mere thousands of votes, the vote patterns were clear enough that he was declared to have held his seat. Shortly after, Rather announced the call in North Carolina - Helms had been re-elected and when he eventually addressed his supporters, Helms made reference to watching Rather’s grim face as the reason for his lateness.

By then, every Democratic incumbent Senator was declared to have held their seats with the exception of Akaka as polls in Hawaii remained open for another two hours. The fate of a number of targeted Republican incumbents was uncertain. Brown led by a seemingly insurmountable margin, Pressler was up by high single digits and only a miniscule amount of precincts in Minnesota had been tabulated. The Gopher State took longer for votes to be counted because of paper ballots, which were necessitated by the late withdrawal of the GOPs gubernatorial candidate involved in a late-breaking scandal. Boschwitz led by the tiniest of margins but that was without nearly anything from the population centers. GOP Senators who had routine re-elections included Bill Cohen of Maine, Nancy Kassebaum of Kansas, Pete Domenici of New Mexico and Simpson. Thurmond, one month shy of his 88th birthday, was also awarded a new six-year term (and one six years after that which took him just past his 100th birthday). It was becoming increasingly obvious that Brown would prevail over Heath in Colorado but his 14% win was evidence that she had penetrated some of his support in the final days (Heath ran into David Axelrod years later who joked, If you had stayed with me, you would have won). Rather called the race for Pressler before 11:00 p.m., just before polls in Oregon were beginning to close.

At that time, the Governor’s races were proving to be the real cliffhangers. While Chiles scored a win for Democrats at almost the exact time polls closed and George Voinovich flipped Ohio to the GOP, the lady (Ann Richards) was steadily increasing her lead over Claytie in Texas. The likelihood that she’d win was garnering almost as much talk by the networks as the Congressional landscape. Yet Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Maine and Nebraska were true tossups (the Cornhusker State was then separated by 41 votes.) A major upset seemed to be brewing in Michigan where two-term Democrat Jim Blanchard who, a heavy favorite as recently as the Sunday before, trailed Senate Minority Leader John Engler 52-48%.

While both parties expected a close race in Oregon, it quickly became obvious as the polls closed out West that the goodwill of the Hatfield had not completely evaporated and he was awarded a new term within 40 minutes. That left Minnesota and Hawaii. Sometime near midnight on the East Coast, Boschwitz fell behind Wellstone and when the jarred incumbent made a hastily arranged appearance on ABC’s Nightline, host Ted Koppell told him, We’re not ready to call it just yet but it looks like you may lose the seat. Within hours, that is exactly what happened. Akaka finally roared off to a surprisingly big lead in Hawaii and the historical Democratic tendencies remained. When the dust settled, Democrats added one seat to their Senate majority to control the Senate 56-44.

If there was an anti-incumbent fever, it was occurring in the House although even in that chamber, it translated to noticeably reduced margins rather than defeats. Two Democrats viewed safe as can be, Bob Kastenmeier of Wisconsin and Doug Walgren of Pennsylvania were shown the door (the latter to brash conservative Rick Santorum). For Republicans, future Maine Senator won a seventh House term just 51-49% and House Minority Whip Newt Gingrich, after trailing much of the evening, held his seat by 974 votes and a recount.

Like any election, 1990 brought plenty of introspection. Burton Yale Pines of the conservative Heritage Foundation stated, Bush has to look at Boschwitz and Bradley and see a warning. It’s like a light heart attack for a young. It tells you to change your way of operating. Bush himself took a glass half full attitude. This administration did not come out worse than predecessors and in fact we did a little better."

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The only Senator to lose his/her seat in 1990 was someone whose race

did not even appear on the radar screen until roughly three weeks

out. Rudolph Rudy Boschwitz (conceding alongside his wife Ellen)

was upset by an energetic college professor named Paul Wellstone

Photo via Spence Hollstadt, The St. Paul Pioneer Press

The Beginning of 1992 Cycle

Technically, the 1992 cycle began the Thursday after the 1990 vote when California Senator Alan Cranston announced he would retire when his term ended a full two years away. Cranston was among the notorious of the Keating Five Senators and was reprimanded by the Senate Ethics Committee as such. He was also the one most severely impacted politically. With few defenders, a prostate cancer diagnosis, Cranston faced a likely challenge from vocal Congresswoman Barbara Boxer who had been talking about seeking the seat even before Cranston headed for the doors. Two of the other Keating Five Senators, Ohio Democrat John Glenn and Arizona Republican John McCain were due to face the voters in ’92 and while their meetings with Charles Keating would soon be labeled by Ethics as bad judgement, both braced for tough roads to winning new terms. The only active candidacy at that point had been from a Wisconsin State Senator named Russell Feingold who had been mounting a five-year candidacy to unseat incumbent Republican Bob Kasten. It wasn’t commonly agreed at that early date how vulnerable Kasten would be, nor was Feingold even the favorite to win the Democratic nomination but he was having fun taking the show on the road.

At that early time, it appeared the most anticipated Senate race of 1992 was going to be in Idaho where Congressman Richard Stallings, a rare Democrat in the Gem State to hold federal office, was chomping at the bit to challenge the apple-farmer turned Senator, Steve Symms. A two-termer who was virtually the only targeted Republican to hold his seat in 1986, Symms was a rigid conservative whose image, unlike the highly respected dealmaker McClure, did not suit everyone. A messy divorce several years back did not help.

The cycle was in its infancy and many factors, both unexpected and not, would occur in the ensuing two years that would create ebbs and flows and make speculation a fool’s errand. The Persian Gulf War was one such event. When the option of authorizing force was debated, nearly half the Senators were against it. Once the bombing campaign against Iraq began, however, even the slightest cracks in national unity were few and far between and the war unexpectedly ended four weeks after it commenced. It was a spectacular success - the ground war that was supposed to bring many Allied casualties came to pass and an elated nation basked in pride and jubilation. Democrats who opposed the authorization experienced political reckoning given that many voters were not happy, particularly in states with a sizable military presence. Bush’s popularity was 90%. Suddenly, seats that that were shaping up as among the most vulnerable before the conflict (Terry Sanford of North Carolina and Wyche Fowler in Georgia) were even more so and incumbents that seemed safe as can be (Fritz Hollings of South Carolina and Alan Dixon of Illinois) saw their approvals take serious nosedives. So massive was the discontent that Hollings, who had held office since 1958, saw his approvals drop from 56% to 44% as a Mason-Dixon Opinion Research poll showed 70% of South Carolina’s voters disapproved of his anti-force vote. Sanford, already in the most precarious re-election position among his colleagues, fell from 57% to 38%.

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Voting against the authorization of force in the Persian Gulf

sent the approval ratings of a number of Democratic Senators

facing the voters into a free-fall, including the previously

impenetrable South Carolinian, Ernest Fritz Hollings

Ernest F. Hollings Papers, South Carolina Political

Collections, University of South Carolina

Senators had almost 20 months to make amends with voters but Republicans were determined to make sure they wouldn’t forget. Texas Senator Phil Gramm as head of the National Republican Senate Campaign Committee (NRSC) oversaw the races for his side of the aisle and suggested that if Democrats had their way we wouldn’t be having all of the euphoria that we’re having now. The vote would have impact but it remained to be seen how tertiary the result would be. By mid-Spring, the Senators could show their faces again in public without being routinely booed. Other issues would take center stage, including the contracting economy and the tragedy in Pennsylvania.

There was to be no federal election in 1991, instead making it a year of preparation for the battles that lay ahead in 1992. It was, however, redefined by a jolting transformation. The event that shook the cycle was the April plane crash over a Lower Merion, Pennsylvania schoolyard that claimed the life of Republican Senator John Heinz. A respected centrist with an utterly safe seat, Heinz’s term went through 1994 but Pennsylvania had a Democratic Governor, Robert Casey who would appoint a successor. Finding one wasn’t easy. He offered the position to Lee Iacocca, a native of the Keystone State but he among several others had no interest. Casey finally turned to his Labor Commissioner, Harris Wofford, a respected choice but one poised to be temporary. A special election was to take place that November and Republicans lured former Governor Richard Thornburgh away from his position as U.S. Attorney General to make the race. It seemed a sure thing – his name recognition and popularity was high and as late as September, he led Wofford by 45 points.

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The plane crash that took the life of Pennsylvania Republican

Senator H. John Heinz helped alter the trajectory of the issues

that governed the election cycle, both in the race to fill his

seat and the Presidential election the following year

Photo courtesy of the U.S. Senate Historical Office

Spring and summer of 1991 saw pictures in some states begin to emerge. Democrats got the candidate they had been attempting to woo in Oregon for several cycles as nine-term Democratic Congressman Les AuCoin announced he would challenge Packwood. After twenty-four years, the Senator’s approvals were not setting the world on fire and the race seemed to be a barnburner from start to finish. In Idaho, Symms did his party a favor in August when he announced he would not stand for re-election and it would prove a rare example of an incumbent being harder to defend than an open seat (Heinz’s death apparently weighed heavily in Symms). Though Stallings would be facing another person, he and Symms would still be a rival in a sense. The departing Senator vowed to use what remained of his influence to keep Stallings from winning the seat.

The Clarence Thomas/Anita Hill Hearings

While some issues came and went throughout election cycles, others were planted firm. The Clarence Thomas-Anita Hill hearings did not wither on the vine but rather proved cataclysmic to the men’s club that was the United States Senate.

Thomas had been nominated by Bush to replace Thurgood Marshall on the Supreme Court that July and called him best qualified at this time. Most Senate Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee did not agree, however, and Howell Heflin, the Alabama Senator highlighted it shortly after his confirmation hearing. He said Thomas’ testimony, raised thoughts of inconsistencies, ambiguities, contradictions, lack of scholarship, lack of conviction and instability. Thomas still seemed poised to win confirmation when Oklahoma University Professor Anita Hill