On the process of maintenance decision-making in the offshore operational environment of the oil and gas industry: a systems approach

By Mario Marcondes Machado

The overall objective of this research is to develop a decision support framework for preventive maintenance program implementations in the offshore operational environment of the oil and gas industry.
The author investigates the problems surrounding the maintenance decision-making process, which elements are systematically identified and categorized, including organizational aspects. The interface with operations is considered in order to promote integration between maintenance and production schedules.
The research subjacent objectives have been to identify, among major oil and gas offshore operators, the state-of-practices regarding the maintenance decision-making process and identify, in the literature, the main techniques used for maintenance decisions and optimization in order to propose alternatives for supporting future implementations.
Through a Systems Engineering approach, assisted by a literature review, interviews with experts (in Norway and in Brazil), an on-line survey and case studies, the results of this research complement a toolkit for maintenance engineers and managers aiming to facilitate information sharing and interdisciplinary cooperation in the operational environment.
Among the results: A concept map for the maintenance decision-making process ontology; A plan for PM program implementations; The suggested cross-sector solution: the minimum equipment list; A Markovian dependability nomogram; and A Markov decision model application.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Editora Dialética
• Release date: Jul 8, 2022
• ISBN: 9786525236346

Book preview

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To Stella, Sidnea and Vitoria

In theory,

theory and practice are the same.

In practice, they are not.

Albert Einstein

PRESENTATION

A ideia é essa.

Prof. Mario Jorge

(2021)

This book is about making decisions in the development and implementation of preventive maintenance programs (e.g., asset management initiatives). Such decision-making process involves facing some challenges. More specifically, some of the main challenges are:

• Who the stakeholders are, their interests and needs;

• What main aspects should be defined: (i) preventive intervals; (ii) spare parts stock levels; (iii) where to perform first line tasks; and (iv) the amount of prevention;

• What the decision alternatives are and how to evaluate them;

• How we should communicate the decision alternatives and preferences to the stakeholders;

• What maintenance KPIs should be considered;

• How the maintenance trade-offs are defined;

• What solutions can be imported from other sectors.

In this book I address these challenges. A decision framework is developed providing an adequate context for how to deal with such challenges. The framework comprises:

• An ontological scheme;

• An alternative optimization approach for backlog management using Markov Decision Processes and solved by dynamic programming;

• A diagnosis of the current practices on maintenance decision-making in the offshore environment;

• A comprehensive decision support framework for PM program implementations;

• A cross-sector solution for Operations & Maintenance integration.

I sought to align my experience in the industry, working with a set of theoretical elements and graphical models, with the idea of composing a toolkit to help maintenance engineers, technicians and managers in the operational environment.

Throughout the course of 13 years working in flight operations, followed by 16 years working in maintenance in the oil and gas sector, I have had the chance to observe the modus operandi of different socio-technical systems, i.e., organizations, from different perspectives, namely Operations and Maintenance.

I have always tried to apply the systems approach to gather the relevant artifacts and concepts that could be useful for those, like me, seeking to combine practice with theory. This book is not an exhaustive collection of tools. I have, as expected, left to the reader the task of testing and improving it as needed.

To name some of the additional challenges in my journey, I mention preparing and carrying out interviews, visiting the operational bases in Norway, and writing the thesis in English. What helped me the most was the support from wonderful people who believed in my project from the beginning, such as Professor Mario Jorge Ferreira de Oliveira (In Memoriam) to whom I dedicate this book. He always said, in his nasal voice, "that’s the idea or a ideia é essa."

Niterói, January 2022

Mario Marcondes Machado

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would not have gotten this far without some helping hands along the way. I am grateful to my mother Stella, my wife Sidnea, my daughter Vitoria and my brother Manoel, who have provided moral and emotional support along the way. I would like to thank my supervisors: Professor Cecilia Haskins, for her encouraging and always enthusiastic advice from Norway, and Professor Mario Cesar Rodríguez Vidal for his wise advice during the final sprint in Brazil.

I am grateful to Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras and to my industry leaders, Mrs. Maria Lucia, Mr. Paulo Viana and Mr. Julio Leite for supporting my research project within the company, and to Professor Mario Campos, my mentor. I am also grateful to Professors Virgílio Jose Martins Ferreira Filho, Eduardo Camponogara, Edilson Fernandes de Arruda and to Professor Mario Jorge Ferreira de Oliveira for supporting my work.

Thanks to my friend from Siri Lanka, Dr. Lokukaluge Prasad Perera, for co-authoring some articles and for giving me feedback, he is now a Professor at the Arctic University of Norway. And to my Brazilian friend in Trondheim, Dr. Thiago Silva, for the help in programming the MDP algorithm of the prototype presented in this book, he is now a SINTEF researcher.

I have special gratitude to Professor Jørn Vatn, who invited me and opened NTNU’s doors. And to Professors Per Schjølberg, Anne Barros and Mary Ann Lundteigen for support and encouragement within the IPK department. I would also like to express my gratitude to the experts who revealed to me in their testimony, some of their truths. And to Mr. Jon Lippe for providing me with most of the contacts with the oil and gas experts in Norway. With a special mention to Geir-Ove, Sjur, Peter, Xue, Sverre, Abraham, Juntao, Shegnan, Emrah, Sara, Kari, Kjerstin, Øyvind and Eli for the friendly environment at NTNU… it was great sharing Trondheim with all of you.

Takk. Muito obrigado. Thank you.

PREFACE

It was my privilege to support the supervision of the PhD research that is the foundation of this book. Mario found an epiphany in the principles of systems thinking and engineering which provide a structure for his ground-breaking application of Markov analysis to preventive maintenance for complex infrastructure assets. His work still qualifies as beyond the state-of-the-art for this topic, especially as applied in the oil and gas industry. He introduces us to the Markov Decision Process, which he recommends as to manage the maintenance backlog, using dynamic programming capable of generating optimal O&M policies of an offshore power plant (FPSO). The reader may be surprised to see the strong correlations between the computational predictions and actual maintenance results during his study. I highly recommend professionals and academics working in this area to read and learn from this book.

Cecilia Haskins

Trondheim, Norway

SUMÁRIO

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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 PROBLEM BACKGROUND

1.2 PROBLEM FORMULATION

2. RESEARCH PLAN

3. STATE-OF-THE-KNOWLEDGE

3.1 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING

3.1.1 THE SPADE METHODOLOGY

3.1.2 THE HEILMEIER’S CATECHISM

3.1.3 MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS

3.1.4 STAKEHOLDERS’ ROLES, INTERESTS AND RESPONSIBILITIES

3.1.5 OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE PROCESSES FROM A SE PERSPECTIVE

3.1.6 MAINTENANCE ENABLING SYSTEMS

3.2 DECISION ANALYSIS

3.2.1 THE INFLUENCE DIAGRAM

3.2.2 THE DECISION TREE

3.3 MAINTENANCE

3.3.1 MAINTENANCE AGENTS, THEIR ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES

3.3.2 MAINTENANCE STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT

3.3.3 MAINTENANCE DECISIONS

3.3.4 RELIABILITY CENTERED MAINTENANCE

3.3.5 TOTAL PRODUCTIVE MAINTENANCE

3.3.6 CONDITION-BASED MAINTENANCE

3.3.7 CONDITION MONITORING AND DIAGNOSTICS OF MACHINES

3.3.7.1 DEGRADATION MODELS AND THE BATHTUB CURVE

3.3.8 MAINTENANCE TRADE-OFFS AND OPTIMIZATION ASPECTS

3.4 THE MARKOV ANALYSIS

3.4.1 THE BASICS OF MARKOV CHAIN

3.4.2 THE MARKOV DECISION PROCESS

3.4.3 MDP APPROACHES ON MAINTENANCE OPTIMIZATION

4. FIELD RESEARCH

4.1 CASE I – A REMAINING USEFUL LIFE APPROACH

4.1.1 DESCRIPTION OF CASE I

4.1.2 FINDINGS FROM CASE I

4.2 CASE II – A LEAN PRODUCTION APPROACH

4.2.1 DESCRIPTION OF CASE II

4.2.2 FINDINGS FROM CASE II

4.3 CASE III – AN ASSET MANAGEMENT DIAGNOSTIC

4.3.1 FINDINGS FROM CASE III

4.4 INTERVIEWS AND SURVEY

4.4.1 ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES

4.4.2 MATURITY OF THE CM&D RELATED PROCESSES

4.4.3 DECISION-MAKING AND LEARNING

4.4.4 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

4.5 DIAGNOSTICS SUMMARY

4.5.1 FACTORS AFFECTING PREVENTION

4.5.2 FACTORS AGAINST DECISION ANALYSIS

4.5.3 FACTORS AGAINST MODELLING

4.5.4 BARRIERS ENCOUNTERED AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5 MAIN RESULTS AND PROPOSALS

5.1 A CONCEPT MAP FOR MAINTENANCE DECISIONS

5.2 A PLAN FOR PM PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATIONS

5.3 MINIMUM EQUIPMENT LIST: A POLICY AND PROCEDURES MANUAL

5.4 A MARKOVIAN NOMOGRAM FOR SYSTEM DEPENDABILITY

5.5 APPLYING THE MARKOV DECISION PROCESS

5.5.1 MOTIVATION

5.5.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT

5.5.3 THE MDP MODEL DEVELOPMENT

5.5.3.1 TRANSITION PROBABILITIES

5.5.3.2 DECISION RULES AND REWARDS

5.5.4 APPLICATION RESULTS

6. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS

REFERENCES

APPENDIX A – LIST OF PUBLICATIONS

APPENDIX B – FIELD RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS

APPENDIX C – A DEPENDABILITY NOMOGRAM

Landmarks

Cover

titlepage

Página de Direitos Autorais.

Table of Contents

Bibliografia

KEY-DEFINITIONS

Availability – The ability of an item (under combined aspects of its reliability, maintainability, and maintenance support) to perform its required function at a stated instant of time or over a stated period of time (BS 4778).

Condition monitoring – Continuous or periodic tests, inspections, measurement or trending of the performance or physical characteristics of structures, systems and components to indicate current or future performance and the potential for failure." (IAEA, 2007).

Dependability – The collective term used to describe the availability performance and its influencing factors: reliability performance, maintainability performance, and maintenance support performance (IEC 60300).

Descriptor – Feature. Data item derived from raw or processed parameters or external observation (ISO 13372:2004).

Failure (event) – The termination of its ability to perform a required function (BS 4778).

2- An unacceptable deviation from the design tolerance or in the anticipated delivered service, an incorrect output, the incapacity to perform a desired function (NASA 2002).

3- A cessation of proper function or performance; inability to meet a standard, non-performance of what is requested or expected (NASA 2000).

Failure symptom – An identifiable physical condition by which a potential failure can be recognized [MIL-STD-2173(A)].

Framework agreement – An agreement between one or more contracting authorities and one or more economic operators, the purpose of which is to establish the terms governing contracts to be awarded during a given period, in particular with regard to price and, where appropriate, the quantity envisaged. [Public Contracts Regulations 2015 – Regulation 33(02)].

Maintenance – The combination of all technical and corresponding administrative actions, including supervision actions, intended to retain an entity in, or restore it to, a state in which it can perform its required function [(IEC50(191)].

Maintainability – The ability of an item, under stated conditions of use, to be retained in, or restored to, a state in which it can perform its required functions, when maintenance is performed under stated conditions and using prescribed procedures and resources (BS 4778).

Maintenance support performance – The ability of a maintenance organization, under given conditions, to provide upon demand, the resources required to maintain an entity, under a given maintenance policy [IEC 50(191)].

Nomogram – A graphical calculating device, a two-dimensional diagram designed to allow the approximate graphical computation of a mathematical function.

Normal operating condition – operating condition that represents as closely as possible the range of normal use that can reasonably be expected. [IEC 62368-1:2010, 3.3.7.4].

Quality – The totality of features and characteristics of a product or service that bears on its ability to satisfy stated or implied needs (ISO 8402).

Reliability – The ability of an item to perform a required function, under given environment and operational conditions and for a stated period of time (ISO 8402).

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS