Aviation System Risks and Safety

By Kuklev E.A., Shapkin V.S., Filippov V.L. and Shatrakov Y.G.

This book provides a solution to “rare event” problems without using the classical theory of reliability and theory of probability. This solution is based on the methodology of risk assessment as “measure of danger” (in keeping with the ICS RAS) and an expert approach to determining systems’ safety indications using Fuzzy Sets methods. Further, the book puts forward a new concept: “Reliability, Risks, and Safety” (RRS). 

The book’s main goal is to generalize present results and underscore the need to develop an alternative approach to safety level assessment and risk management for technical (aviation) systems in terms of Fuzzy Sets objects, in addition to traditional probabilistic safety analysis (PSA). The concept it proposes incorporates ICAO recommendations regarding proactive system control and the system’s responses to various internal and external disturbances. 

• Language: English
• Publisher: Springer
• Release date: Jul 9, 2019
• ISBN: 9789811381225

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© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2019

Kuklev E.A., Shapkin V.S., Filippov V.L. and Shatrakov Y.G.Aviation System Risks and SafetySpringer Aerospace Technologyhttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-8122-5_1

1. Assessing the System Safety Using Reliability Theory and PSA Methods

Kuklev E.A.¹  , Shapkin V.S.²  , Filippov V.L.³   and Shatrakov Y.G.⁴  

(1)

Saint-Petersburg, Russia

(2)

Moscow, Russia

(3)

Moscow, Russia

(4)

Saint-Petersburg, Russia

Kuklev E.A. (Corresponding author)

Email: [e-mail]

Shapkin V.S.

Email: [e-mail]

Filippov V.L.

Email: [e-mail]

Shatrakov Y.G.

Email: [e-mail]

The materials in this chapter do not contain any results obtained by the authors of the book and are a concise summary of the achievements of other researchers—first of all the results obtained by Aronov et al. [1]. This was necessary, since further references are made to this chapter when substantiating the provisions of methods for assessing the levels of safety and the significance of risks in a new interpretation resulting from the classical reliability theory.

The basic concepts of ensuring safety in the classical reliability theory for technical systems are given. The methods of qualitative analysis and preventive methods of handling failures are considered on the basis of probabilistic and statistical analysis of the safety of complex technical products. The concept of acceptable risk is introduced. It is pointed out that it is necessary to ensure the reduction of damage in case of potential accidents and increase the level of safety taking into account the risk of damaging the entities of the operation process. There is a need in an analysis of essential and significant scientific and technological achievements in the field of RT that enabled the creation of highly reliable systems, especially those such as aviation technical systems (ATS), which is necessary in the development of flight safety management systems and aviation activities based on ICAO recommendations and the new provision of Annex 19 [2–5].

1.1 Formation of Methods for Ensuring Reliability and Safety of Equipment as Quality Characteristics

The basis of the theory for the solution of reliability problems (RT) was the probability theory and mathematical statistics.

However, procedures for managing risks of accidents using techniques to ensure the fail-safety of machinery are not well formed.

In the RT, the concept of safety is just a consequence by default, without reference to any international standard. At the same time, a lot of works are already known that cover a new scientific direction, the system safety theory (SST).

In this connection, the main positions of the classical RT and PSA are compared using the risk categories.

When performing a large number of reliability tests, a critical analysis of the failure causes showed their significant dependence on the design of products, production technology, and operating conditions (adverse factors in the safety theory). The requirements of American standards have been most fully implemented in the extensive program APOLLO aiming to ensure reliability and safety of spacecraft in the process of their development, production, and ground testing.

Within the reliability theory (RT) [3–10], a safety theory was formed on the basis of the initial assumption that deterministic calculations of the process parameters with the worst-case design basis accident ensure the safety of the facility during operation on the basis of the if it is reliable, then it is safe principle [6–8].

Recognition of the probabilistic nature of accidents led to a change in the concepts of safety and to the recognition of such a category of concepts as "acceptable risk and scenario of events" [9–19] (I. Ryabinin’s school).

The concept of the accident occurrence risk in the RT as a universal safety feature determined the development of the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA). A conclusion was drawn that after the failure probability has been calculated, it is necessary to evaluate the consequences of the failure [1, 6, 17].

In this book, certain statements included in the "system safety theory and allowing for adjusting some incorrect results in rare events" problems [15–23] are taken as indisputable:

"safety is to be assessed through the risks" category;

"accident rate" and "catastrophes depend on the probability of some scenarios" of the development of technical processes.

Three typical variants of the action strategy are known: "attempt to avoid risk, which is not always possible, since the impact of hazardous factors is continuous; neglection of the risk, which is not an optimal option, since the damage from accidents can be significant; risk management with identification of factors (predicted threats)" under the conditions of informational uncertainty regarding risk situations.

1.2 Basic States of Facilities in the Reliability and Safety Analysis

Such property of the facility as reliability is defined in GOST 27.002-89 Industrial product dependability. Reliability is a property that includes fail-safety, durability, repairability, and maintainability.

For safety analysis, the most important property is fail-safety—the property of the object to continuously maintain an operational state for some time or some operating time before a critical failure occurs (according to the RT) (Tables 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 and 1.4).

Table 1.1

Risks to human health from power plants (deaths/GW(el)/year)

Table 1.2

Data on emergency situations (ES) that occurred in 1997

ES scale: Le—local element; Ls—Local and sub regional; Rs—region; Fc—federal

Table 1.3

Data on transport accidents in Russia

Table 1.4

Critical vehicle defects