Forex The Art of Speculation

By Matt Speler

This is the third book of our series. It is crucial since it not only summarizes all of the knowledge from the previous two parts, but also illustrates numerous fantastic and current market examples of combining direction and volume methods.

You will not have to read any theoretical fiction in this book. It is a publication steeped in practice, so your workshop will polish you and practical examples will help you consolidate the knowledge from prior portions. This section is designed to increase your sensitivity to market information and train your eye to spot any small bit of extra money that arrives on the market.

According to the phrase on the front of our book, if somebody ever tosses you into the market to be eaten by bulls or bears, you will comeback commanding them.

A genuine market warrior is humble and patient… He does not fight the market, but he can listen to it, which is why he always wins. This book will present you with numerous rewarding findings that will enable you to compete with the most powerful market participants… Remember that you will be fighting alongside them against these unsuspecting traders. In this case, the one with the most information wins!

 
What you will get from reading this book?

 

1. You will systematize all the knowledge learned in the previous two parts
2. You will learn how to use both strategies from the previous parts in the current market conditions
3. You will learn how to effectively combine a Direction Strategy and a Volume Strategy
4. You will gain confidence in understanding the information coming from the market
5. You will systematize the technique of trading on the market based on the real volume and Price Action

• Language: English
• Publisher: Matt Speler
• Release date: Feb 25, 2022
• ISBN: 9788396414724

Book preview

TABLE OF CONTENTS

FROM THE AUTHOR

VOLUME AND SENTIMENT ANALYSIS Complete decision-making process

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I dedicate the book to my wife and children who bravely waited for many months for me to finish the whole series and supported me in difficult moments.

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Matt

FROM THE AUTHOR

Welcome to the third part of the ebook series. If you have read the previous two, we are very pleased that you have decided to reach out for the next part. We sincerely hope that after the previous two parts you already have a great knowledge of the mechanics of the market and the patterns of operation of the largest participants in this market. You are probably already noticing a lot of interesting signals on the market. This publication will be unlike any other. At this point, you probably noticed that our publications describe the situation throughout 2020. That's it. Throughout the year, we collected data, traded and struggled with the market, creating this series for you. This series is also close to us, because it is the foundation, the statue of over a dozen years of gaining knowledge and experience in the markets. Due to the fact that the third part was written at the beginning of 2021, in the introductory chapter to this series, I will present our claim to fame on the first trading day of the year. Of course, it is not just about showing off, but above all about instilling passion and determination in the trading environment. From the philosophy of the East, a certain sentence says:

"Understanding new things comes from knowing old things.

The difference between the old and the new is a matter of time.

It is essential that man should have an unclouded mind in everything

We sincerely hope that this part will be an important accent for you summarizing the whole series and you will understand that the relationships that occur in the markets have always been and will always be within your reach. Thanks to the open mind, you will be able to notice it on a regular basis. At this point, your focus is not on imitating others who often need your capital for their purposes, and you are not focusing on imitating strange strategies based on historical averages and other mathematical measures and more. A real trader's task is to tread on the heels of the largest participants in this market. So let's start the last stage summarizing your knowledge.

VOLUME AND SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

Complete decision-making process

Before we get into the sentiment material from the first part of the series, I'd like to show you something amazing. You probably know that many traders don't like Mondays. Because Mondays are boring ... and because after Sunday nothing is happening on the market ... and because this year, Monday 4/01/2021 is the first Monday and the first trading day of the New Year ... As many Traders, you will find so many explanations for the lack of interest in trading on Mondays. However, as you already know, it is not the day of the week that determines the interest in the market. If on a given day there are orders or something important that the market will not pass by, then such a day is of interest to market participants. Don't get confused by people who are lazy or lack the proper knowledge. Trust the knowledge, information and actual figures that illustrate what is currently happening on the market. In this example, we will analyze the sentiment and then show you how the market performed on instruments such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, SP500, DAX and OIL. Just as you see it. We will analyze as many as 9 instruments on the same day and all of them will concern Monday - the beginning of 2021. Without wasting any unnecessary time, let's move on to the sentiment analysis.

What information appeared that day in the morning of the European session and earlier in the Asian session.

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Germany reportedly plans to extend lockdown until 31 January

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/germany-reportedly-plans-to-extend-lockdown-until-31-january-20210104

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The first negative piece of news, both for the general risk mood and for the EUR itself. The extension of the blockade is another blow for the German economy and a harbinger of weaker results.

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Tokyo asks residents to refrain from non-urgent, non-essential outings after 8pm local time

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/tokyo-asks-residents-to-refrain-from-non-urgent-non-essential-outings-20210104

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Tokyo authorities are calling for a restriction on travel in the evening hours. This means a deteriorating situation in the health sector. This is poor news for both the Japanese yen and global risk.

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Japan is considering a Tokyo (COVID-19) emergency declaration within a week

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/japan-is-considering-a-tokyo-covid-19-emergency-declaration-within-a-week-20210104

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The risk of a state of emergency in Japan is this info, just like we presented above, negatively affecting the Japanese yen and after all showing the still deteriorating situation due to the spread of COVID19.

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Reports out of the UK that the military has been called in to assist in COVID response

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/reports-out-of-the-uk-that-the-military-has-been-called-in-to-assist-in-covid-response-20210103

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The situation in Great Britain also shows a deterioration and the authorities are forced to use the help of the military.

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For the oil traders - there is a full OPEC + meeting scheduled for Monday January 4

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/for-the-oil-traders-there-is-a-full-opec-meeting-scheduled-for-january-4-20210103

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The meeting of the OPEC countries also began that day. It was a key meeting because decisions were to be made as to whether OPEC would start increasing production or leave it unchanged.

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USS Nimitz aircraft carrier is no longer leaving the Middle East due to Iran threat

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/uss-nimitz-aircraft-carrier-is-no-longer-leaving-the-middle-east-due-to-iran-20210104

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Information quite negatively influencing market sentiment. Tensions between the US and Iran have entered a dangerous phase. One of the US aircraft carriers remained in the Middle East to support a possible negative scenario.

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USD / JPY extends drop under 103.00 as dollar eases further on the session

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/!/usdjpy-extends-drop-under-10300-as-dollar-eases-further-on-the-session-20210104

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Article pointing to important levels on USDJPY. The importance of levels 103 and 102, and still the pull of level 102. Such information may weaken a possible upward move and shallow down the corrective move.

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UK health secretary said to be worried that vaccines may not be as effective against South African virus variant

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/uk-health-secretary-said-to-be-worried-that-vaccines-may-not-be-as-effective-20210104

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Concerns about the insufficient effectiveness of the COVID19 vaccine due to the emergence of information on new mutating strains of the virus. Negative information for risk.

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US 'Fauci warns that the US coronavirus outbreak' likely will get worse 'in coming weeks

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/us-fauci-warns-that-the-us-coronavirus-outbreak-likely-will-get-worse-in-coming-weeks-20210104

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Also in the US, there are signs of a worsening viral situation in the coming weeks.

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Coronavirus - New Zealand has further tightened border controls

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/coronavirus-new-zealand-has-further-tightened-border-controls-20210104

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Meanwhile, New Zealand is tightening border controls. It is worth considering that New Zealand was the country that coped better with the virus. This type of information may be slightly disappointing for NZD and, additionally, a possible upward correction in the USD may be consistent with this type of information.

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TD sees the potential for a USD bounce

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/td-sees-the-potential-for-a-usd-bounce-20210104

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TD analysts see a chance for a rebound in the USD, which is a strengthening of the USD. By the end of the year there was a downward move on the US dollar.

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Dollar continues its struggles into the new year

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/!/dollar-continues-its-struggles-into-the-new-year-20210104

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In addition to commenting on the USD itself, this article also talks about the pound and the target level of 1.40. It should be remembered that the BREXIT agreement between Great Britain and the European Union was concluded only after difficult negotiations. Thus, a possible correction on the USD is treated in the case of pound only as a correction and on important supports the market can still buy with a medium-term target at level 1.40.

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That said, Republicans are still favorites to at least win one seat and keep control of the Senate. So, that should at least keep the status quo to start the new year.

Source:https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/reminder-georgia-runoffs-to-take-place-tomorrow-20210104

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This is extremely important information. Pay attention to it because, later in presenting the next day, I will show you a subtle difference that influenced the moods and thus the direction of the stock markets. The ability to see such details in combination with the volume will give you a powerful advantage. It is about the last votes and the filling of the last seats in the US Senate. Republicans would only have to win 1 of 2 votes to maintain control of the senate. In turn, the Democrats must win a full set of two votes to take over the senate. What's the difference between Republicans and Democrats? Well, Republicans block the issue of increasing checks in fiscal aid from $ 600 to $ 2,000. This is quite negative for the stock market. In turn, if the democrats managed to take over the senate, there would be a good chance to increase the amount of these checks, and this would be appreciated by the market. Of course, ultimately this would risk raising taxes eventually, but in the short term, the issue of checks could have an impact on the market. However, on 04/01/2020 the analytical view favored the Republicans, which gave the potential for a correction rather than a continuation of good moods.

Now let's analyze the sentiment that has been summarized as part of our subscription.

EURUSD - no specific sentiment. Currently, to talk about a specific increase, it would have to break 1.23. In the medium term, the market is still aiming for a minimum of 1.24 or even 1.25. However, there is a lot of talk about the correction on the USD so this could be an provocative factor.

GBPUSD - sentiment unchanged - average term 1.40. A correction seen by the market as an opportunity to buy.

USDCAD - no sentiment, fundamentally in the case of a correction on the USD and the forecast of weaker employment data, then a correction is possible.

USDJPY - Breakout of 103 is attributed to tension