The China Seas Crisis: Which Way, Australia?

By Franz Kratschmer

The China Seas Crisis: Which Way, Australia? sets the stage for understanding the issues at play in the China Seas as the United States of America reduces its naval presence, leaving open the opportunities for other powers in the region to assert themselves. In particular, the works discussion explores the ins and outs of the relationship between the Peoples Republic of China, which is increasing its influence, and Australia, a longtime and staunch global ally of the United States and Great Britain.
The author, Franz Kratschmer, taps his experience serving with the United Nations in East Timor and his own research into the details of the China Seas issue. He explains the historical context, the nature of the geopolitical forces at work, the particulars of the moments of conflict and the times of cooperation, and the questions that arise.
The China Seas Crisis: Which Way, Australia? focuses on a region and addresses a set of questions often overlooked by the general public. If you have the sense that this is an oversight worth overcoming, then The China Seas Crisis will give you the background, facts, and analysis you need to cultivate a deeper understanding of the issues besetting the countries that ply the waters of the China Seas.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Partridge Publishing Singapore
• Release date: Sep 23, 2015
• ISBN: 9781482852875

Franz Kratschmer

Franz Kratschmer, born in Vienna, Austria, served as military and civilian United Nations peacekeeper. He was the regional representative of the head of the UN missions in East Timor for eleven years. He is the author of China—Hungry for Resources and Know-How and Lucky 13?!. He, his wife Vera Lucia and the two sons Francisco and Karl live in Darwin, the capital of Australia’s Northern Territory.

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Copyright © 2015 Franz Kratschmer. All rights reserved.

ISBN

978-1-4828-5286-8 (sc)

978-1-4828-5287-5 (e)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2015949949

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced by any means, graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping or by any information storage retrieval system without the written permission of the publisher except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews.

Because of the dynamic nature of the Internet, any web addresses or links contained in this book may have changed since publication and may no longer be valid. The views expressed in this work are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher, and the publisher hereby disclaims any responsibility for them.

www.partridgepublishing.com/singapore

09/22/2015

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Dedication

I wish to dedicate this book to the presidents, governments, and peace-loving people of the countries that claim islands, reefs, and shoals in the China Seas at their national territory. Of course, this includes the presidents of the United States of America and Russia. They are the key players when trying to find a peaceful solution to the crisis by international arbitration.

The United Nations, Australia, and other Asian countries can contribute to easing the tensions. Let’s share the natural resources under the seabed in the China Seas. Let all enjoy the freedom of navigation and overflight as well as the fishing rights. Military confrontation needs to be avoided, and all reclamation and construction work by the parties involved should cease immediately.

Let us refrain from building artificial islands, walls, fortresses, or iron curtains again. What the world needs to witness regarding the China Seas crisis are political decisions by the leaders concerned that lead to peaceful settlement.

Foreword

Which way or direction, mate? Australia has always been one of the most reliable allies of the United States of America, the United Kingdom, the Commonwealth, and other Western alliances in recent history. The People’s Republic of China has become Australia’s number-one trading partner; more than 120,000 Chinese students are enrolled at Australian education providers. Chinese state-owned companies have acquired or leased vital installations and land Down Under. Not to be forgotten are the billions of dollars’ worth of properties in the real estate market.

We Australians can talk with pride and honour about the military engagements. The country participated in both world wars, sent a contingent to the Korea War, and later deployed its forces in South Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan to follow, with minor engagements in the Middle East.

Today, Aussie army special forces and a reconstruction team are still in Afghanistan, although even Uncle Sam reduced its military presence there. The Australian military were deployed in the Middle East, with a view to stop the advance of ISIS in Iraq and Syria in 2014, but the number of personnel is said to be increased. Will it be another long-term military participation as part of an international operation? It is hard to find a meaningful answer as to why Western politicians are so hesitant to deploy ground forces for a short term and solve the problem once and forever. A combined contingent of all military special forces of the superpowers would end the ISIS threat once and forever. However, with no boots on the ground, you send inviting signals to the other side. Was an encouraging signal wrongly sent to the Chinese leadership with regard to the China Seas territorial disputes?

Australia has enjoyed a long and successful participation within the framework of United Nations peacekeeping operations. This included the deployment of its federal police in Cyprus and elsewhere. Australian nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) also provided all kinds of aid to those countries in need.

Australia’s leading role in the region is acknowledged, in particular when it comes to disaster-relief operations. The Australian government provides the assistance without hesitation or conditions.

However, there have been other important developments during the last decade or so.

Internationally and historically seen, former enemies have turned into friends, and in some cases tensions increased between friends and allies. Times of peace are followed by tensions and sometimes hostilities. The latter usually is the result of failed diplomacy or the lack of will to negotiate.

When talking about the territorial issues in the China Seas, there must be a will to settle the disputes peacefully. Establishing facts by the construction of artificial islands or taking possession of islands in the South China Sea without prior consultation may later prove to be counterproductive.

The reduced naval presence of the United States of America in the area should not be underestimated or misinterpreted as an invitation to show force. Whether China’s building of a second aircraft carrier fits into the peace puzzle needs to be examined.

Unfortunately, the China Seas issue is linked with the formation of alliances, and we must understand that apart from political, strategic, and ideological thinking, there remain a few gunpowder barrels in the world that could go off quickly.

1. The right for free navigation in the China Seas

2. Unrestricted access to and from the Indian Ocean

3. The exploitation of the natural resources under the seabed

4. What about the Republic of China (ROC) or Taiwan?

5. Both Koreas: reunification or bargaining chip forever?

6. Vietnam’s relations with China

7. Japan’s military growth and possible expansion

These are just a few to be mentioned, and the time-bomb is ticking.

Australian governments have confirmed the strategic importance of the Northern Territory of Australia, be it for economic, social, military, or other reasons. The focus is more or less placed on the Northern Territory and its capital, Darwin. It is quite interesting to talk of a landmass that combines the size of France and Germany together but has a population of just 250,000. The territory’s strategic importance has increased militarily and economically. The former is eyed by Uncle Sam, apparently wishing to deploy B-1 and B-52 bombers in the Northern Territory and searching for harbour facilities.

Offshore, the vast oil and gas fields in the Timor Sea attract foreign investors. The Japanese oil and gas giant INPEX has initiated the ICHTHY project, said to inject billions into the Australian economy over the next twenty years or more. Chinese companies buy a lot of properties, purchase a lot of land, and invest heavily.

With the construction of the Adelaide-Darwin Railway, long shipping lines were reduced. The Australian Defence Force (ADF) is also increasing the deployment of forces to the Northern Territory.

In recent years, Darwin has experienced a construction boom, and the property prices are the highest in Australia. Whether this will be good for the local economy in the long run remains to be seen.

Militarily, we can say Australia is one of the closest allies of the United States. In late 2011, Prime Minister Julia Gillard signed an agreement with US President Obama, sealing the seasonal deployment of US Marines at Robertson Barracks near Darwin. Initially, just one US marines company was discussed.

By 2017, the contingent will have a strength of twenty-five hundred men and women. The old CH-53 Sea Stallion helicopters already fly over the skies of the Northern Territory, and the mighty B-52 bombers will enjoy flying Down Under too. It is understood that the US military will request additional access to air bases and harbor facilities. That’s what we call true friendship between staunch allies.

As usual in history, former enemies can become friends, and this is documented in Australia’s relationship with Japan. The bombing of Darwin and the sinking of some US ships in 1942 is history. Today, Australia is negotiating with Japan to share modern submarine technology with a view to replace its ageing boats. It is assumed that Germany will join in for offering high-tech subs too.

But there is another political development in the region that is sometimes a little ignored but, I would say, of strategic importance: the Chinese expansion closer to Australia (or better said in East Timor, or Timor-Leste). Whereas Portugal, Australia, and Indonesia influenced East Timor’s history, I consider the PR China as the number-one foreign power, as hundreds of millions of US dollars have been invested or donated into the economy of the tiny country. Would you invest or donate without expecting a return at a later stage?

Well, and here in lovely Australia, China’s hunger for natural resources and know-how remains great. Chinese companies buy sugar plantations, iron ore, and many other products. Of course, their companies bring in their own workers. Finally, the Australian consumer is also subject to a large variety of products made in China. The PR China has become Australia’s number-one trading partner. The Australian government introduced the Premium Investor visa, apparently in high demand by applicants from China. Permanent residency is granted after one year in return for a $15 million investment. This is the result of a very good political relationship, but will it last forever?

We are in a time of peace, but what about the China Seas crisis? China’s declaration of new maritime boundaries (9-dotted line) and the Air Defence Identification Zone were initial steps. The construction of artificial islands or Walls of Sand in the South China Sea followed. Images of some of the islands show runways and other military installations. China’s leadership appears not to be open to international arbitration with a view to defuse this critical period.

Tensions have surfaced, and any crisis can easily develop into a military showdown. Will shots be fired by the Chinese military when foreign aircraft fly through the new Air Defence Identification Zone or naval vessels get too close to the by China claimed islands?

The following figures on the PR China should be taken into consideration.

– As of 2004, the People’s Republic of China had a population of 1.3 billion.

– The country of 9,600 square kilometres is located in central and east Asia

– Han Chinese make up 93 per cent of the population.

– Main religions are Confucianism, Buddhism, and Taoism; in addition to atheists, there are over 10 million Protestants, 4 million Catholics, and over 22 million Muslims.

– President Xi Jinping leads the government in Beijing.

Let’s also take a quick look at the PRC’s military, with a view to find out that the tiger is awake:

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA), after 2012, includes the following:

– Army: 1.6 million active members, with 500,000 reserves

– Air Force: 330,000 personnel and 3,000 aircraft

– Navy: 260,000 personnel with 470 ships and 650 aircraft

– Police: Up to 1.5 million

More than 10 million Chinese reach military age annually.

What if China exploits the natural resources under the seabed in the China Seas? What other actions from all involved can we expect if this crisis cannot be solved peacefully? Recent Chinese activities and political statements related to land reclamation in the South China Sea make the rest of the world believe that the Chinese leadership is not willing to negotiate. Chinese military assets appear to have been deployed to remote islands.

Most of the Australian resources are Asia bound. In case of tensions or confrontation in that region, the export of oil, gas, and other products could cease due to insecure shipping lines.

But even if peace prevails globally, recent developments in the China Seas indicated that the PR China is establishing new maritime boundaries and air defence identification zones and eyeing the natural resources under the seabed in this area. Once the exploitation of the resources is in full swing, the procurement from external sources is expected