Life/Death Rhythms of Capitalist Regimes – Debt Before Dishonour: Part Iii Forecast Dominance

By Will Slatyer

Life/Death Rhythms of Capitalist Regimes Debt before Dishonour explores the cyclical theory of cultural development, with particular attention paid to the introduction of democratic forms of government in the British Empire and the United States republic. The cyclical theory allows a forecast of the fading of the dominance of the United States as an imperial power.

Similar to cultural survival of the loss of dominance experienced by the British Empire after the Great War, the United States will survive in a new form. Which superpower will take over the reins remains to be seen, but the likely contender is the Peoples Republic of China. This conclusion and the timing will allow long-term planning by corporations and governments. In the age of political correctness, it is unlikely that readers will experience any such forecasts by government bodies.

Throughout history, societies have used and abused debt, revolted and warred over debt, and have forbidden usury. But the modern financial world as we know it simply cannot exist without usury. Since the 1400s, modern governments have found new ways to expand debt to produce modern economies, which are still subject to the age-old basic principle of debt that it needs to be repaid or dire consequences ensue.

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
George Santayana (1863 1952)

• Language: English
• Publisher: Partridge Publishing Singapore
• Release date: Sep 16, 2014
• ISBN: 9781482827309

Will Slatyer

Will Slatyer offers a lifetimes experience in international studies through his varied careers. Sparked by the ideas of an American professor, Will has spent over ten years proving that dominant cultures (empires) of the world obey a cyclical framework influenced by climate change. He resides in Narrabeen, New South Wales, Australia.

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Copyright © 2014 by Will Slatyer.

ISBN:      Hardcover          978-1-4828-2729-3

                Softcover            978-1-4828-2728-6

                eBook                 978-1-4828-2730-9

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CONTENTS

Chapter 7 India – Colonial Advancement – 1900–2100 Dominance Contender

Chronology

Climate/Geographic Access To Resources

Leaders In War And Defence

Economics

Religion

Law

Potential As A World Dominant Culture

Chapter 8 From Empire Of The Romanovs To Soviet Russia Communist/Socialist Dynasty 1600- 2100 Dominance Contender

Climate/Geographic Access To Resources

Leaders In War And Defence

Romanov Power

Russian Revolutions

The Russian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic/ Union Of Soviet Socialist Republics

Stalinist Soviet Union

Soviet Union Thaw Under Stalin’s Successors

Democratic Russian Federation

Religion

Law

Economics

Potential As A World Dominant Culture

Chapter 9 China – Manchu Qing Dynasty To Communist Dynasty 1600 - 2014

Chronology

Climate/Geographic Access To Resources

Leaders In War And Defence

Qing Dynasty

Rise Of The Communist Dynasty

Market Communism

Market Socialism

Religion

Economics

Potential As A World Dominant Culture

Chapter 10 Analysing The Social Pattern Of Modern Empires 1400 - 2100

The Cyclical Cultural Pattern

Timing Patterns In The Capitalist Era 1368-1920

Common Features Of Dominant Cultures

Rurik Dynasty Of Russia

The Chinese Ming Dynasty

Holy Habsburg Empire Culture

The Ottoman Empire

Safavid Dynasty Of Persia

The Valois/Bourbon Kings Of France

The Mughals Of India

The Shoguns Of Japan

Protestant Maritime Culture Of The Dutch Republic And Britain

The Chinese Qing Dynasty

The Romanov Tsars Of Russia

The Hohenzollern Dynasty Of Prussia/Germany

The British Empire

Conclusion - The Ancient/Medieval Cyclical Pattern Continues

Chapter 11 Forecasting Life Expectancy Of Modern Empires 1900-2100

Forecasts For The Early Third Millennium Ad

End Of A Dominant Culture

Future Dominant Culture

Appendix I

Appendix II

Appendix III

Bibliography

PART III

Forecast Dominance

Indian%20Republic.jpg

CHAPTER 7

India – Colonial Advancement – 1900–2100 Dominance Contender

Chronology

The British Raj (reign) was the rule of India by the British Empire in 1858 after the Indian Rebellion of 1857 when the British government took away the power of the East India Company. New regiments, like the Sikhs and Baluchis, composed of Indians who, in British estimation, had demonstrated steadfastness, were formed. The Indian army was to remain unchanged in its organisation until 1947. The Princes were rewarded in the new British Raj by being officially recognised in the treaties each state now signed with the Crown. New legislation merged the Crown and the old East India Company courts and introduced a new penal code as well as new codes of civil and criminal procedure, based largely on English law.

Under Viceroy Viscount Canning, James Wilson, financial member of the Council of India in 1860 reorganised customs, imposed income tax, and created paper currency.

After a Russian mission, the Amir of Afghanistan, Sher Ali Khan, refused to receive a British mission. Lord Lytton, the viceroy, ordered a diplomatic mission to set out for Kabul in 1878 but the mission was turned back as it approached the eastern entrance of the Khyber Pass, triggering the Second Anglo–Afghan War. With British forces occupying much of the country, Sher Ali’s son and successor, signed a treaty in 1879.

Following the Third Anglo-Burmese War, 1885, Burma came under the rule of the British Raj as a province of India. Seventy-three Indian delegates met in Bombay in 1885 and founded the Indian National Congress Party.

India was ravaged by the bubonic plague, Bombay 1896 Calcutta 1898, which caused riots over plague prevention measures. The plague returned in 1899 concurrent with famine in which 6 to 9 million people died.

The Indian Councils Act 1909 — also known as the Morley-Minto Reforms - gave Indians limited roles in the central and provincial legislatures, known as legislative councils.

The Defence of India Act 1915 allowed government to intern politically dangerous dissidents without due process and added to the power it already had – under the 1910 Press Act – both to imprison journalists without trial and to censor the press.

The Government of India Act 1919 empowered Central Legislative Assembly.

The Government of India Act 1935 authorised the establishment of independent legislative assemblies in all provinces of British India, the creation of a central government incorporating both the British provinces and the princely states, and the protection of Muslim minorities.

Quit India movement of August 1942. Along with all other Congress leaders, Gandhi was immediately imprisoned, and the country erupted in violent demonstrations led by students and later by peasant political groups, especially in Eastern United Provinces, Bihar, and western Bengal.

In 1947 Britain announces intention to end British rule in India. As independence approaches India prepares for Separation. Dominions of India and Pakistan commence

Climate/Geographic Access to Resources

British India consisted of 17 provinces and 562 princely states. The provinces were given to India or Pakistan, in some cases in particular — Punjab and Bengal — after being partitioned. Independent India’s first years were marked with a massive exchange of population with Pakistan and the integration of over 500 princely states to form a united nation. 66 states in Gujarat and the Deccan were merged into Bombay, including the large states of Kolhapur and Baroda. Other small states were merged into Madras, East Punjab, West Bengal, the United Provinces and Assam. Thirty states of the former Punjab Hill States Agency were integrated into Himachal Pradesh, a distinct entity. Subsequently India invaded and annexed Goa and Portugal’s other Indian enclaves in 1961, the French ceded Chandernagore in 1951, and Pondichéry and its remaining Indian colonies in 1956, and Sikkim voted to join the Indian Union in 1975. Nepal and Bhutan were recognised as independent states.

The Indian sub-continent is prone to drought due to climate. The failure of the monsoons is critical to major drought-prone regions such as southern and eastern Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Gujarat, and Rajasthan.

Leaders in War and Defence

Lord Curzon of Kedleston was made Viceroy of India in 1899. In the context of the Great Game between the British and Russian Empires for control of Central Asia, he held deep mistrust of Russian intentions. Curzon convinced his government to establish Britain as the unofficial protector of Kuwait with the Anglo-Kuwaiti Agreement of 1899. At the end of 1903, Curzon sent a British expedition to Tibet, ostensibly to forestall a Russian advance. After bloody conflicts with Tibet’s poorly armed defenders, the mission penetrated to Lhasa, where a treaty was signed in September 1904. No trace of the Russians was found. Reappointed Governor-General in August 1904, Curzon presided over the 1905 partition of Bengal, which roused such bitter opposition among the nationalist movements of the province that it was later revoked (1911). Curzon resigned in 1905.

The Earl of Minto became the 17th Viceroy and Governor-General of India in 1905 after a term as the popular Governor-General of Canada. Minto served a peaceful term until 1910. In 1907, the Indian National Congress Party was split into two factions. The radicals led by Bal Gangadhar Tilak advocated civil agitation and direct revolution to overthrow the British Empire and the abandonment of all things British. The moderates led by leaders like Dadabhai Naoroji and Gopal Krishna Gokhale on the other hand wanted reform within the framework of British rule. The Congress of 1906 did not have public membership, and thus Tilak and his supporters were forced to leave the party. The All India Muslim League was founded in 1906 as a political party to secure the interests of the Muslim diaspora in British India.

Charles Hardinge, 1st Baron Hardinge of Penshurst, was appointed Viceroy in 1910. His tenure was a memorable one, seeing the visit of King George V and the Delhi Durbar of 1911, as well as the move of the capital from Calcutta to New Delhi in 1912. Although Hardinge was the target of assassination attempts by Indian nationalists, his tenure generally saw better relations between the British administration and the nationalists, thanks to the implementation of the Morley-Minto reforms of 1909, Hardinge’s own admiration for Mohandas Gandhi, and criticism of the South African government’s anti-Indian immigration policies. Hardinge’s efforts paid off in 1914 during the First World War. Due to improved colonial relationships, Britain was able to deploy nearly all of the British troops in India as well as many native Indian troops to areas outside of India. In particular the British Indian Army was able to play a significant role in the Mesopotamian campaign.

Mohandas Gandhi obtained the honorific Mahatma (venerable) in 1914 when he was fighting apartheid in South Africa. In 1915, Gandhi returned to India permanently. He brought an international reputation as a leading Indian nationalist, theorist and organiser. He joined the Indian National Congress (INC) and was introduced to Indian issues and politics. Also prominent in the Congress Party was the Muslim, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, who at that time advocated Hindu–Muslim unity.

Viscount Chelmsford became Viceroy in 1916 and received consistent calls for self-government, which Chelmsford agreed to, convincing a preoccupied Foreign Office to send the Secretary of State for India, Edwin Montagu, to discuss the potential for reform. Together they oversaw the implementation of the Montagu-Chelmsford reforms, which gave greater authority to local Indian representative bodies and paved the way for a free India. Trying to tread a fine line between reforms and maintaining the British hold over India, Chelmsford passed repressive anti-terrorism laws to widespread opposition from Indian reformists. The laws sparked unrest in the Punjab, culminating in the implementation of martial law in the region and the Amritsar Massacre by General Dyer in 1919. Chelmsford’s discipline of Dyer was seen by Indian Nationalists as too little, too late, and the Indian National Congress boycotted the first regional elections in 1920. In addition to this, the Third Anglo-Afghan War broke out and Gandhi, as leader of Congress, started his first campaign for independence. Jinnah resigned from the Congress when it agreed to follow a campaign of satyagraha, or non-violent resistance, advocated by Gandhi.

In 1921, Rufus Isaacs, 1st Marquess of Reading resigned the chief justiceship to become Viceroy of India. Although he preferred a conciliatory policy, he ended up using force on several occasions, and imprisoned Mahatma Gandhi in 1922.

Baron Irwin was appointed Viceroy in 1926. His rule was marked by a period of great political turmoil. The exclusion of Indians from the Simon Commission examining the country’s readiness for self-government provoked serious violence, and he was forced into concessions which were poorly received in London as excessive, in India as half-hearted. After the Indian National Congress declared the independence of India in 1930, Irwin had all the Congress leaders put behind bars and then opened negotiations with Gandhi. Some criticism of Irwin may have been unfair, but he had made an error and unrest grew. Irwin’s attempts to mediate with Indian leaders were stymied by London’s refusal to make concessions, or clarify the position on dominion status. With little room for manoeuvre, Irwin resorted to repression using his emergency powers to arrest Gandhi, ban public gatherings and crush rebellious opposition. Gandhi’s detention, however, only made matters worse. Irwin ultimately opted to negotiate, signing the Delhi Pact in January 1931, which ended civil disobedience and the boycott of British goods in exchange for a Round Table Conference that represented all interests. The fortnight-long discussions resulted in the Gandhi-Irwin Pact, after which the Civil Disobedience Movement was suspended. In March 1931, Irwin paid tribute to Gandhi’s honesty, sincerity and patriotism at a dinner given by ruling princes. A month following the Gandhi-Irwin Pact, Lord Irwin retired and left India. On Irwin’s return to England in April 1931, the situation was calm, but within a year the conference collapsed and Gandhi was again arrested.

The Marquess of Willingdon had earlier been Governor of Bombay and Madras before he became the 22nd Viceroy in 1931. The country was gripped by the Great Depression and was soon leading Britain’s departure from the gold standard, seeing thousands of tonnes of gold shipped to the United Kingdom through the port of Bombay. Against the Indian agitators, the Governor-General adopted much stricter measures, as opposed to his predecessors, who had favoured reconciliatory tactics. The Governor-in-Council in 1931 ordered the arrest of Gandhi—who was lodged in jail until 1933—and the civil disobedience movement was suppressed, with thousands of congressmen arrested, all of which led to threats on Willingdon’s life. The Reserve Bank of India was created in 1935.

The Marquess of Linlithgow implemented the plans for local self-government embodied in the Government of India Act of 1935, which led to government led by the Congress Party in five of the eleven provinces, but the recalcitrance of the princes prevented the full establishment of Indian self-government. The Act allowed Muslims in Punjab and Bengal to gain dominance in provincial assemblies. The Muslim-minority provinces sought allegiance with Jinnah and the Muslim League. Gandhi and Congress withdrew their support of the Raj when the Viceroy declared war on Germany in September 1939 without consulting anyone. Gandhi declared that India could not be party to a war ostensibly being fought for democratic freedom while that freedom was denied to India itself.

In 1940 Jinnah professed his belief that a Muslim federation should be formed based on the existing boundaries of undivided Punjab and Bengal. Many Hindus thought that Jinnah’s ideas were unfair because Muslims would then have power to influence Muslim-minority states. The Muslim League clashed with right-wing Hindu organisations, such as the Hindu Mahasabha, which led to widespread rioting.

Disputes between the British administration and Congress ultimately led to massive Indian civil disobedience in the Quit India Movement under Gandhi in 1942. Linlithgow suppressed the disturbances and arrested the Congress leaders. Gandhi was held for two years in the Aga Khan Palace in Pune. Linlithgow is partly blamed for the Bengal famine of 1943.

The distinguished Field Marshal, Viscount Wavell, became Viceroy in 1943. One of Wavell’s first actions in office was to address the Bengal famine of 1943 by ordering the army to distribute relief supplies to the starving rural Bengalis. He attempted with mixed success to increase the supplies of rice to reduce the prices. Although Wavell was initially popular with Indian politicians, pressure mounted concerning the likely structure and timing of an independent India. He attempted to move the debate along but received little support from Churchill (who was against Indian independence), nor from Clement Attlee, Churchill’s successor as Prime Minister. He was also hampered by the differences between the various Indian political factions. Gandhi was released before the end of the war in 1944 because of his failing health and necessary surgery. The Raj did not want him to die in prison and enrage the nation.

The Muslim League cooperated with Britain and moved, against Gandhi’s strong opposition, to demand a totally separate Muslim state of Pakistan. At the end of the war, rising Indian expectations continued to be unfulfilled, and inter-communal violence increased. The Royal Indian Navy mutiny (also called the Bombay Mutiny) encompassed a total strike and subsequent mutiny by Indian sailors of the Royal Indian Navy on board ship and shore establishments at Bombay (Mumbai) harbour in February 1946. From the initial flashpoint in Bombay, the mutiny spread and found support throughout British India, from Karachi to Calcutta and ultimately came to involve 78 ships, 20 shore establishments and 20,000 sailors. Eventually, in 1947, Attlee lost confidence in Wavell and replaced him with Lord Mountbatten of Burma.

Lord Mountbatten was charged with overseeing the transition of British India to independence no later than 1948. Mountbatten’s instructions emphasised a united India as a result of the transference of power but authorised him to adapt to a changing situation in order to get Britain out promptly with minimal reputational damage. Soon after he arrived, Mountbatten concluded that the situation was too volatile for even that short a wait. Although his advisers favoured a gradual transfer of independence, Mountbatten decided the only way forward was a quick and orderly transfer of independence before 1947 was out. In his view, any longer would mean civil war. Mountbatten was fond of Congress leader Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru and his liberal outlook for the country. He felt differently about the Muslim leader Jinnah, but was aware of his power, stating "If it could be said that any single man held the future of India in the palm of his hand in 1947, that man was Mohammad Ali Jinnah." Mountbatten tried to persuade Jinnah to a united India, citing the difficult task of dividing the mixed states of Punjab and Bengal, but the Muslim leader was unyielding in his goal of establishing a separate Muslim state called Pakistan.

In August 1947 the British partitioned the land, with India and Pakistan, each achieving independence on terms that Gandhi disapproved. Violent clashes between Hindus, Sikhs and Muslims followed. The Maharaja of Kashmir asked for Indian military assistance. India set a condition that Kashmir must accede to India for it to receive assistance. The Maharaja complied, and the Government of India recognised the accession of the erstwhile princely state to India. Indian troops were sent to the state to defend it. In October 1947 the Pakistani armed forces crossed the border with the claim that they needed to suppress a rebellion on the southeast of the kingdom. A UN cease-fire was arranged for December 1948. Pakistan was able to acquire roughly two-fifths of Kashmir, including five of the fourteen highest peaks of the world, while India maintained the remaining three fifths of Kashmir, including the most populous and fertile regions.

Hindu nationalists saw themselves as united by an allegiance of Sanskritic culture which excluded Muslims and Christians. Gandhi was assassinated in January 1948 by a Hindu extremist. The partition led to a population transfer of more than 10 million people between the Republic of India and Pakistan and the death of over one million people. Prime Minister Nehru and Deputy Prime Minister Sardar Patel invited Mountbatten to continue as Governor General of India but he was replaced in June 1948 by Chakravarti Rajagopalachari.

Patel took on the responsibility of bringing into the Indian Union 565 princely states, steering efforts by his iron fist in a velvet glove policies, exemplified by the use of military force to integrate Junagadh and Hyderabad state into India (Operation Polo). 66 states in Gujarat and the Deccan were merged into Bombay, including the large states of Kolhapur and Baroda. Other small states were merged into Madras, East Punjab, West Bengal, the United Provinces and Assam. Not all states that signed Merger Agreements were integrated into provinces, however. Thirty states of the former Punjab Hill States Agency which lay near the international border and had signed Merger Agreements were integrated into Himachal Pradesh, a distinct entity.

The Covenants made provision for the creation of a constituent assembly for the new union which would be charged with framing its constitution. In return for agreeing to the extinction of their states as discrete entities, the rulers were given a privy purse and guarantees similar to those provided under the Merger Agreements. VK Krishna Menon suggested requiring the rulers of states to take "practical steps towards the establishment of popular government". The States Department accepted his suggestion, and implemented it through a special covenant signed by the rajpramukhs of the merged princely unions, binding them to act as constitutional monarchs.

The Constituent Assembly completed the work of drafting the constitution in November 1949; in January 1950 the Republic of India was officially proclaimed. The Constituent Assembly elected Dr. Rajendra Prasad as the first President of India, taking over from Governor General Rajagopalachari. India held its first national elections under the Constitution in 1952, where a turnout of over 60% was recorded. The National Congress Party won an overwhelming majority, and Jawaharlal Nehru began a second term as Prime Minister. President Prasad was also elected to a second term by the electoral college of the first Parliament of India. Prime Minister Nehru, with his charismatic brilliance, also led the Congress to major election victories in 1957 and 1962.

Subsequently India invaded and annexed Goa and Portugal’s other Indian enclaves in 1961, the French ceded Chandernagore in 1951, and Pondichéry and its remaining Indian colonies in 1956, and Sikkim voted to join the Indian Union in 1975. Nepal and Bhutan