Approaching Crisis of Global Cooling and the Limits to Growth: Global Warming Is Not Our Future

By Shigenori Maruyama

We are at the terminal point of the warm interglacial period, and the
next glacial age may anytime start. The first step of the global cooling is
predicted by the author to come in 2035, when the food production will
surely decrease. The population is expanding and the shortage of food
and drain of natural resources result in the limits to the growth of the
human society. It was predicted by the Rome Club (1972) that The Limits
to Growth would come in 2020. All these conditions together corroborate
to bring a severe crisis to human beings in near future. If the earth would
be meeting warming in near future as predicted by IPCC, then the crisis
would be mild.
However, it is not the case. The atmospheric temperature of the earth
will surely become cold, because most of major controlling factors of the
atmospheric temperature, i.e., solar activity, cosmic rays, and geomagnetism
are changing in a way to the cooling. The effect of carbon dioxide gas only
cannot be too much evaluated. The effort of decreasing carbon dioxide
gas is important in the sustainability of our limited resources, however, we
have to seriously consider the measures for the approaching crisis of global
cooling and the limits to growth.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Xlibris US
• Release date: Dec 20, 2012
• ISBN: 9781477128602

Shigenori Maruyama

Prof. Shigenori Maruyama was born in 1949 in Tokushima Prefecture, Japan. After graduating from Tokushima University where he earned his bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral degrees, he studied at Kanazawa University, Nagoya University, and Stanford University in the United States and then joined the Tokyo Institute of Technology in 1989. He has served there as a professor in the Science and Technology School since 1993. Professor Maruyama is a geologist studying earth and planetary sciences. His new theory on the movement of the whole mantle of the earth gave a strong impact on the earth science world and resulted in his receiving the Geological Society of Japan medal and the Purple Ribbon Medal of the Japanese government. Major publications include the following: What Has the Earth Been Doing for the Last 4.6 Billion Years? (In Japanese, Iwanami Shorten, Tokyo), The History of Life and the Earth (In Japanese, Iwanami Shorten), A Tale of Science Worth Saving in Your Heart (In Japanese, Kyoken Shuppan, Tokyo), etc. ============================= Prof. Masaru Yoshida was born in 1937 in Tokyo. After graduating from Hokkaido University, he joined 1968–1970 Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition. He was employed at the Osaka City University in 1970 and served there as professor of geology in the School of Science from 1990 to 2001. Since then he has worked as the president of the Gondwana Institute for Geology and Environment, Hashimoto, Japan. Professor Yoshida is a field geologist, studying various areas in Gondwanaland terrains. He founded the International Association for Gondwana Research and the journal Gondwana Research in 1997 and worked as the president of the association and the chief coeditor of the journal for several years. His major scientific contributions include improvement of knowledge on the geology of Antarctica and tectonics of Gondwanaland. Further, his discovery of the Yamato meteorites in 1969 resulted in giving a tremendous impact on earth and planetary sciences. Professor Yoshida has more than two hundred scientific publications and twenty books, including India and Antarctica during the Precambrian (Geological Society of India), Proterozoic East Gondwana (Geological Society of London), Guidebook for Himalayan Trekkers, Series Nos. 1 and 2 (Department of Geology, Trichandra Campus, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu), etc.

Book preview

Approaching Crisis of

Global Cooling and the

Limits to Growth

Global Warming Is Not Our Future

By Shigenori Maruyama

Translated by Masaru Yoshida and Vernon Spencer

IAGR/GRM Memoir No. 11

Approaching Crisis of Global Cooling and the Limits to Growth - Global Warming Is Not Our Future

Authored by

Shigenori Maruyama

Translated by

Masaru Yoshida and Vernon Spencer

Memoir No. 11

International Association for Gondwana Research

and Gondwana Research Group

146 pages with 33 diagrams

Copyright © 2012 by Shigenori Maruyama

Library of Congress Control Number:      2012910722

ISBN:        Hardcover      978-1-4771-2859-6

                 Softcover        978-1-4771-2858-9

                 Ebook              978-1-4771-2860-2

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the copyright owner.

Published by the collaboration of:

Field Science Publishers

A division of Gondwana Institute for Geology and Environment

http://www.geocities.jp/gondwanainst/

147-2 Hashiramoto, Hashimoto 648-0091, Japan

Tel/Fax: [phone]

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Xlibris Corporation

Bloomington, IN 47403, USA

To order additional copies of this book, contact:

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Contents

Prologue

Chapter 1—The Crazy Concert of Global Warming

The Sensational Inconvenient Truth

The Ministry of Environment Pamphlet Stirs Up Anxiety in Japan

Origin of the Theory of Criminality of Carbon Dioxide

What Is the IPCC and What Are Their Arguments?

The Buffering Effect of the Earth

Strange Data Handling by the IPCC

The Trap of the Supercomputer Myth

Merits and Demerits of the Approach of Science to Politics

Warming or Cooling: The Conclusion Will Be Found Within Ten Years

Kyoto Protocol: Full of Problems

Chapter 2—Collapse of the Theory That Carbon Dioxide Is the Criminal

Carbon Dioxide Increases as a Result of Warming

Is the Sun the Major Criminal for Global Warming?

The Milankovitch Cycle Affects Solar Radiation on the Earth

Cosmic Rays, Geomagnetism, and Volcanic Activity Control the Amount of Clouds

The Paradox of the Darkened Sun

The Most Recent Research Project Points to the Major Role of Natural Deviation in Climatic Change

Scientists Keep Silent about the Suspect

The Criminality of Carbon Dioxide Is Printed on the Brain

The Responsibility of the Mass Media in Stirring up the Theory of Global Warming and the Criminality of Carbon Dioxide

Chapter 3—A Cold Period Surely Comes Shortly

Today We Are in an Interglacial Period

The True Terror Is a Coming Cold Period

Glacial Melt Gives No Terror

Large Ethnic Migration During Cold Periods

Change in Earth’s Environment Affected the Evolution of Life

Examine Possible Measures against a Cold Period

Chapter 4—What Is the True Crisis?

A Full Figure of the Earth System—Fruit of Interdisciplinary Science

Necessary Factors for the Research of Climatic Changes

Thinking of Countermeasures for the Heat Island Phenomenon

The Danger of Chemical Contamination of Water and Air

The Limits to Growth: Explosion of Population and Exhaustion of Resources

Chapter 5—The Wisdom and Future of Human Beings

Japan Shrinks without a Strategy

Danger of Famine and War

Necessary Effort for Saving Oil and Developing New Energy

Study the Future with the Intelligence of Mankind

Evolution of the Earth and the Progress of Human Race

A Large Human Population as the Biggest Environmental Problem

A Program for Decreasing the Population Should Start Urgently

Epilogue

Selected References

Acknowledgement for the Permissions of Reproduction of Figures

Translators’ Comments

Author’s Comment to the English Version

Author’s Profile

Translators’ Profile

Prologue

Have scientists ever sent such a strong message as seen that given in IPCC report to international politics? The source of this question is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and is the beginning of an editorial in a Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun titled Stop Global Warming—Scientists’ Message Sent to Politicians, which appeared on November 24, 2007. In this year, three sections of the IPCC delivered their section reports, and the Synthesis Report by the Core Writing Team of the IPCC was approved by the IPCC at the twenty-seventh session in Valencia held during 12–17 November.

The Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report cautions that the direction of the stop global warming movement will be decided according to measures taken in the coming twenty to thirty years and requests strong action on the part of all countries. This means that scientists are showing the strong will of a collaborating body, stressing that human activity has reached the limit for the earth, and also that politics has started action. The practical action is, needless to say, to decrease the release of carbon dioxide.

At the Heiligendamm Summit in 2007, our (Japanese) prime minister Shinzo Abe announced a large goal to the world by which Japan will decrease by 50% the release of carbon dioxide by 2050.

The current trend in the world is to blame carbon dioxide for global warming and does not allow questioning such a conclusion or giving contrary opinions. Such words as eco and gentle to the earth are overflowing in society. It is as if it were a religion, as some people are even saying. Ideas that promote measures against global warming are the most important and urgent mission for human beings, and so the feeling that we have to decrease the release of carbon dioxide has infiltrated society.

It is true that the average atmospheric temperature of the earth has risen. However, will this warming continue further? And is the criminal really carbon dioxide? No one is able to correctly answer these queries, neither ordinary citizens nor scientists. This is because climatic change is affected by a variety of factors, including solar activity, the Milankovitch cycle, cosmic rays, geomagnetism, etc. However, these factors are not considered in the IPCC report.

Although it has not been mentioned to the public, the theory that carbon dioxide is responsible for global warming has been a matter of suspect from the academic viewpoint (cf. chapter 2), even though academic societies do not disclose a formal opinion on such an issue.

According to the author’s private understanding, a third theory separate from the carbon dioxide and the solar activity is that global warming is controlled by the amount of clouds affected by the intensity of cosmic ray radiation, and solar activity and geomagnetism affect strongly the intruding amount of cosmic rays onto the earth (cf. chapter 2, p. 45-46). The central area of research by forefront specialists has now shifted to the technology of regulating the environment to control the amount of clouds, and the development of artificial satellites for quantitative measurement of the amount has already started. Considering all these important factors and their variations in the past, along with palaeoclimatic data, the atmospheric temperature will not become warm but instead cold in the near future as explained in detail in chapters 2 and 3.

Many scientists are throwing doubts on the conclusion of the IPCC report, but because of the political strength of IPCC, doubts and objections do not appear often in the media, although they are now appearing in Europe and North America as mentioned in the epilogue.

To mention simply, it is already understood that the amount of clouds has a far stronger effect on the change in atmospheric temperature than greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, and that the intensity of cosmic rays controls the amount of clouds. However, a society once disturbed will not correct its direction easily. Why has the theory of the responsibility of carbon dioxide for global warming been seen so overwhelming?

The approach of science to politics, where scientists have started to give politicians recommendations on environmental policy, is very welcome. It is considered inevitable for politicians to carry out a policy by referring to the ideas and research of scientists, especially regarding global environment that will strongly affect such a grave problem as global warming in the future. I also believe, needless to say, that the global environment itself is a very important and grave theme. However, under the present conditions, most politicians and scientists are captured by the theory of warming only and fail completely to notice the really horrible problem that will surely occur in the near future. Or they may indeed see it but just avoid dealing with it.

This problem is the shortage of resources and food due to the increase in population, the so-called 2020 problem emphasized by the Rome Club, as mentioned in chapter 4 (p. 89). Compared with the increase in carbon dioxide by 1 ppm (equal to a 0.004°C rise of atmospheric temperature) per year, the annual world population is increasing by 80 million, and that will result in the shortage of food and resources, which will be the source of trouble in the struggle to get them. The coming of a cold period in the near future should certainly make the above problem even graver. Further, I recognize that the contamination of water and air is an extremely serious problem for the human beings.

I greatly evaluate the effort of IPCC in that they collected tremendous data so far published and struggled to get a conclusion. However, their fundamental mistake is that they could not give proper evaluation to palaeoclimate data. Further, as mentioned elsewhere in text, their way of forming the conclusion from a variety of data and arguments has appeared to be not fair.

Why have I come to consider writing this book? Because I have found it very dangerous that the world is forced to dance to such a small theme, as the reduction in releasing carbon dioxide, in spite of the existence of more serious problems that we have to struggle with spending time and money collaborating together. If there were enough time until the crisis comes, I would not worry. However, we have very little time left.

The crisis will surely come by 2020.

I have been studying the eternal history of the sun, the planets, and the earth. In studying geology worldwide and analyzing material within strata, geologists are able to know the past environmental changes, such as in climate, cosmic rays, evolution of life, and the contamination of water and air. To know the history of nature including human society and to understand the principles involved enable us to predict the future. By studying the cause of the past global climatic change, we can predict to some extent the future climatic change.

Chapter 1—The Crazy Concert of Global Warming

The Sensational Inconvenient Truth

Rotting ice at the edge of an ice sheet, a Patagonian glacier that became a lake due to melting, hurricanes, and tornados attacking people, cracked earth surfaces due to drought, Mt. Kilimanjaro with naked ice-free mountain slopes.

One after another come the shocking views on a large screen in the movie Inconvenient Truth, which appeared in the US in 2006 where Albert Gore stressed the crisis of global warming.

Gore was the vice president of the United States who worked as a representative to the third conference of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) held in Kyoto in 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol was written. The president at that time was Bill Clinton of the Democratic Party. However, when Gore returned to the US, the Republican Party, which formed the majority in the House of Representatives, objected to the Protocol and therefore did not ratify it. Then after Bush of the Republican Party became president, the US government became inactive in regard to the global warming issue, claiming that it was because the grounds for establishing the Protocol were not sufficiently proved.

The movie Inconvenient Truth is a collection of lectures in which Mr. Gore continued to constantly emphasize the crisis of global warming after the above Kyoto Conference. Global warming had been discussed before that time, but this movie turned on an eruption of the sense of crisis regarding this problem.

Inconvenient Truth recorded the fifth highest-grossing documentary film ever in box-office ticket sales in the US and caused a great sensation. Following the movie, a book (Gore, 2006) with the same title was also published. This furor is said to have prompted the Bush government to take some action toward global warming. It may be regarded that Gore wiped out the political shame of Kyoto with this.

The convincing words of Gore, along with many shocking pictures in the movie, have created fear among the people. I have this book Inconvenient Truth now at hand. It carries many full-page photos, simplified graphs, and diagrams of computer graphics with lines of shocking explanations between them. This is a well-compiled book, appealing for the recognition of the crisis facing human society and in an easy-to-understand and visually appealing form.

However, is warming really the inconvenient truth? And is it true that the criminal is carbon dioxide? I will try to show you the very truth in this book.

Gore intended to ultimately appeal as follows: After the Industrial Revolution, when people started to engage in large economic activities by burning fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, the average atmospheric temperature of the earth has indicated a drastic increase of 0.6°C by the end of the twentieth century. He insisted that the cause for the temperature rise is greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide which human society is releasing.

However, there are several other factors that have an effect on atmospheric temperature. In particular, solar activity these last one hundred years has been very pronounced, and this has been clearly recognized through scientific data. Furthermore, as has been pointed out by several scientists, there are found many points in Gore’s opinion that are easily refuted.

Because the earth’s atmosphere is very thin, we can change its composition easily. Gore stressed the thinness of the atmosphere, citing the words of the late Dr. Carl Sagan who said, Let’s paint varnish on a ball. The thickness of the atmosphere on the earth is very similar to the thickness of the varnish on the ball.

It is true that the atmosphere is very thin. There are the atmosphere and the hydrosphere on the earth’s surface, and life