Vital Signs 2006-2007: The Trends That Are Shaping Our Future

By The Worldwatch Institute

This report tracks and analyzes 44 trends that are shaping our future, and includes graphs and charts to provide a visual comparison over time. Categories of trends include: Food, Agricultural Resources, Energy and Climate, Global Economy, Resource Economics, Environment, War and Conflict, Communications and Transportation, Population and Society, and Health and Disease.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Island Press
• Release date: Mar 19, 2015
• ISBN: 9781610916677

Book preview

VITAL SIGNS

2006–2007

VITAL SIGNS

2006–2007

The Trends That Are Shaping Our Future

WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE

Erik Assadourian, Project Director

Michael Bender

Courtney Berner

Katie Carrus

Zoë Chafe

Kevin Eckerle

Christopher Flavin

Hilary French

Gary Gardner

Linda Greer

Brian Halweil

Lindsay Hower Jordan

Suzanne Hunt

Nicholas Lenssen

Zijun Li

Yingling Liu

Lisa Mastny

Danielle Nierenberg

Michael Renner

Katja Rottmann

Janet Sawin

Susan Shaheen

Hope Shand

Molly O’Meara Sheehan

Lauren Sorkin

Peter Stair

Kathy Jo Wetter

Andrew Wilkins

Linda Starke, Editor

Lyle Rosbotham, Designer

W · W · Norton & Company

New York London

Copyright © 2006 by Worldwatch Institute

All rights reserved

Printed in the United States of America

First Edition

VITAL SIGNS and WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE trademarks are registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Worldwatch Institute; of its directors, officers, or staff; or of any funders.

The text of this book is composed in ITC Berkeley Oldstyle with the display set in Quadraat Sans.

Composition by the Worldwatch Institute; manufacturing by Courier Westford.

Book design by Lyle Rosbotham.

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Worldwatch Institute Board of Directors

Øystein Dahle

Chairman

NORWAY

Thomas Crain

Vice Chairman and Treasurer

UNITED STATES

Larry Minear

Secretary

UNITED STATES

Geeta B. Aiyer

UNITED STATES

Adam Albright

UNITED STATES

Cathy Crain

UNITED STATES

James Dehlsen

UNITED STATES

Christopher Flavin

UNITED STATES

Robert Charles Friese

UNITED STATES

Lynne Gallagher

UNITED STATES

Satu Hassi

FINLAND

John McBride

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Akio Morishima

JAPAN

Izaak van Melle

THE NETHERLANDS

Wren Wirth

UNITED STATES

Emeritus:

Abderrahman Khene

ALGERIA

Andrew E. Rice

UNITED STATES

Worldwatch Institute Staff

Erik Assadourian

Research Associate

Courtney Berner

Development Associate Assistant to the President

Lori A. Brown

Research Librarian

Lila Buckley

China Director

Zoë Chafe

Staff Researcher

Steve Conklin

Web Manager

Barbara Fallin

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Christopher Flavin

President

Hilary French

Senior Advisor for Programs

Gary Gardner

Director of Research

Joseph Gravely

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Senior Researcher

Alano Herro

Staff Writer

John Holman

Director of Development

Suzanne Hunt

Biofuels Program Manager

Lisa Mastny

Senior Editor

Danielle Nierenberg

Research Associate

Laura Parr

Development Assistant

Tom Prugh

Editor, World Watch

Mei Qin

Communications Officer, Beijing

Darcey Rakestraw

Communications Manager

Mary Redfern

Foundations Manager

Michael Renner

Senior Researcher

Lyle Rosbotham

Art Director

Janet Sawin

Senior Researcher

Molly O’Meara Sheehan

Senior Researcher

Patricia Shyne

Director of Publications and Marketing

Lauren Sorkin

Programs Associate

Peter Stair

Research Assistant

Georgia Sullivan

Vice President

Andrew Wilkins

Administrative Assistant

Worldwatch Fellows

Molly Aeck

Senior Fellow

Chris Bright

Senior Fellow

Seth Dunn

Senior Fellow

David Hales

Counsel

Eric Martinot

Senior Fellow

Mia McDonald

Senior Fellow

Zijun Li

China Fellow

Yingling Liu

China Fellow

Sandra Postel

Senior Fellow

Payal Sampat

Senior Fellow

Victor Vovk

Senior Fellow

Contents

Acknowledgments

Preface

PART ONE: Key Indicators

Food and Agriculture Trends

Grain Harvest Flat

Meat Consumption and Output Up

Fish Harvest Stable But Threatened

Pesticide Trade Shows New Market Trends

Energy and Climate Trends

Fossil Fuel Use Continues to Grow

Nuclear Power Inches Up

Wind Power Blowing Strong

Solar Industry Stays Hot

Biofuels Hit a Gusher

Climate Change Impacts Rise

Weather-related Disasters Affect Millions

Hydropower Rebounds Slightly

Energy Productivity Gains Slow

Economic Trends

Global Economy Grows Again

Advertising Spending Sets Another Record

Steel Output Up But Price Drops

Aluminum Production Increases Steadily

Roundwood Production Hits a New Peak

Transportation and Communications Trends

Vehicle Production Continues to Expand

Bicycle Production Up

Air Travel Takes Off Again

Internet and Cell Phone Use Soar

Health and Social Trends

Population Continues to Grow

HIV/AIDS Threatens Development

Infant Mortality Rate Falls Again

Conflict and Peace Trends

Number of Violent Conflicts Drops

Military Expenditures Keep Growing

Peacekeeping Expenditures Set New Record

PART TWO: Special Features

Environment Features

Global Ecosystems Under More Stress

Coral Reef Losses Increasing

Birds Remain Threatened

Plant Diversity Endangered

Disappearing Mangroves Leave Coasts at Risk

Deforestation Continues

Groundwater Overdraft Problem Persists

Reducing Mercury Pollution

Economy and Social Features

Regional Disparities in Quality of Life Persist

Language Diversity Declining

Slums Grow as Urban Poverty Escalates

Action Needed on Water and Sanitation

Car-sharing Continues to Gain Momentum

Obesity Reaches Epidemic Levels

Corporate Responsibility Reports Take Root

Nanotechnology Takes Off

Notes

The Vital Signs Series

Acknowledgments

"H uman activity is putting such strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted." These were the words of the Board of Directors of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a four-year analysis of the world’s ecosystems written by over 1,300 scientists. It is becoming ever more apparent that human society has a rapidly shrinking window of time to alter its path.

The trends documented in this short, accessible book make this reality all too apparent. Temperatures are rising, forests are shrinking, and populations of humans and their vehicles are growing, as is the need for food, energy, metal, and timber. We hope this compilation will encourage all of us as producers and consumers, as educators and students, as policymakers and citizens, and as community and business leaders to give priority to creating a sustainable world—one in which our children can enjoy as enriching lives as some of us have had.

The process of writing Vital Signs is a complex one, drawing on the support of thousands of Worldwatch friends. To investigate such a broad array of trends, we depend on the guidance of numerous experts who offer comments on our drafts and supply the data that provide the foundations for each trend. This year we would especially like to thank Otto Beaujon, Colin Couchman, Tom Damassa, Serena Fortuna, Pat Franklin, Jenny Gitlitz, Mark Haltmeier, Mario Hartloper, Frank Jamerson, Rachel Kaufman, David Lennett, Petra Löw, Mette Løyche Wilke, Birger Madsen, Eric Martinot, Peter Maxson, Paul Maycock, Iain McGhee, Pat Mooney, Mika Ohbayashi, Olexi Pasyuk, David Pimental, Steven Piper, Patricia Plunkert, Alfredo Quarto, Silvia Ribeiro, David Roodman, Mycle Schneider, Wolfgang Schreiber, Paul Scott, Vladimir Slivyak, Asa Tapley, Jim Thomas, Jay Townley, Wayne Wagner, Rasna Warah, Katherine Laura Watts, Kamill Wipyewski, Angelika Wirtz, and Gregor Wolbring.

We would also like to give a special acknowledgment to the contributions of Tim Whorf, a staff research associate with the Carbon Dioxide Research Group at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, who passed away this last year. Tim provided climate data to Worldwatch over the past eight years. He and his important work will be missed.

This year we drew on the expertise of several researchers beyond the walls of the Institute. Former Worldwatch researcher Nick Lenssen continued to track the growth of nuclear energy. Recent Worldwatch interns Katie Carrus, Lindsay Hower Jordan, and Katja Rottmann contributed three articles. Linda Greer of the Natural Resources Defense Council and Michael Bender of the Mercury Policy Project provided an overview of global mercury usage. Hope Shand and Kathy Jo Wetter of the ETC Group investigated the growth of nanotechnology. Kevin Eckerle, a consultant at the U.N. Environment Programme at the time, described plant diversity trends. And Susan Shaheen, program leader at Partners for Advanced Transit and Highways at the University of California Berkeley, examined the recent expansion in global car-sharing services.

Of course, every good book needs a good publisher. We are grateful for the continued efforts of our longtime publisher, W. W. Norton & Company, and especially for the help provided by Amy Cherry, Leo Wiegman, and Anna Oler. It is their commitment that helps transform Vital Signs from bits and bytes to this volume, found in bookstores and classrooms across the United States.

We are also lucky enough to have a committed group of international partners who work diligently to produce Vital Signs outside the United States. For their considerable help in translating, publishing, and promoting recent editions, we thank Soki Oda of Worldwatch Japan, Lluis Garcia Petit and Sergi Rovira at Centro UNESCO de Catalunya in Spain, Jonathan Sinclair Wilson and Jon Raeside at Earthscan in the United Kingdom, and Eduardo Athayde in Brazil.

Now let us turn to a very important collection of people and institutions: those who allow Worldwatch to keep working. Each year a farsighted group of foundations and governments provide us with financial support. Thanks especially to the Blue Moon Fund, the Ford Foundation, the German Government, The Goldman Environmental Prize/Richard & Rhoda Goldman Fund, the W. K. Kellogg Foundation, the Steven C. Leuthold Family Foundation, the Merck Family Fund, the Noble Venture Fund/Community Foundation Serving Boulder County, the Norwegian Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Overbrook Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, The Shared Earth Foundation, The Shenandoah Foundation, the Taupo Community Fund of the Tides Foundation, the United Nations Population Fund, the Wallace Genetic Foundation, Inc., the Wallace Global Fund, the Johanette Wallerstein Institute, and the Winslow Foundation.

Other important contributors include the more than 3,500 Friends of Worldwatch—individuals whose commitment to the Institute has made our work possible. A special word of gratitude goes to our Council of Sponsors, who have played a central role in sustaining us for many years: Adam and Rachel Albright, Tom and Cathy Crain, and Timothy and Wren Wirth. And we thank the Worldwatch Board of Directors, an exceptional group of people whose guidance and leadership make our work better every year.

Within the walls of Worldwatch, many individuals help each year to make Vital Signs possible. Patricia Shyne, our Publications Director, works with our publisher and international partners to spread the book across the globe. Our development staff, consisting of Georgia Sullivan, John Holman, Mary Redfern, Laura Parr, and Courtney Berner, play a critical role in cultivating support for Worldwatch’s essential work. Behind the scenes, we receive unflappable support from Director of Finance and Administration Barbara Fallin and good-humored assistance from Mail and Publication Fulfillment Coordinator Joseph Gravely.

Our communications team—Darcey Rakestraw and Drew Wilkins—works diligently to bring Vital Signs and other Worldwatch publications to new audiences every day. We also added a new face to the Institute just before publishing Vital Signs—Alana Herro, a staff writer for a new environmental news service that we recently launched. World Watch Magazine Editorial Director Tom Prugh and Senior Editor Lisa Mastny plan new and interesting magazine issues that inspire and inform us with new stories, while Research Librarian Lori Brown helps to gather the data that underpin our research.

At the heart of producing Vital Signs are two very important individuals. Linda Starke, an independent editor who has edited Worldwatch publications for more than 20 years, knows the ins and outs of this book better than anyone. Her skill and knowledge make each year’s process smooth and efficient, while her wit keeps it fun. Worldwatch’s Art Director Lyle Rosbotham brings the book its artistry—from the striking pictures that start the sections to the crisp color scheme and clean layout throughout.

Finally, a special acknowledgment to Steve Conklin, our Web guru, who has helped to take Vital Signs into the twenty-first century with the launch of Vital Signs Online. Now the newest trends and analyses will be housed together, ready for download, at www.worldwatch.org/vsonline. Take a look and tell us what you think at [e-mail]. Thanks also to intern Sharon Kim, who was very helpful in updating and preparing the many trends for the Web version.

The future that we build can be sustainable and just. If it isn’t, our children and theirs could well be reminiscing about the days when the rivers flowed freely, stomachs stayed full everyday not just on holidays, and violent tropical storms were so infrequent that they were still newsworthy. And they will ask why, why didn’t anyone do anything before it was too late? So read up on the vital signs of the planet, and then get out there and protect it. Earth is the only home we’ve got!

Erik Assadourian

April 2006

Worldwatch Institute

1776 Massachusetts Ave., N.W.

Washington, DC 20036

Preface

Soaring commodity prices and growing signs of ecological stress are dominating the world’s vital signs as we cross the midpoint of the first decade of the twenty-first century. The health of the global economy and the stability of nations will be shaped by our ability to address the huge imbalances in natural resource systems that now exist.

Of the 24 major ecosystem services that support the human economy—services such as providing fresh water and regulating the climate—15 are being pushed beyond their sustainable limits or are already being degraded, according to the four-year Millennium Ecosystem Assessment prepared by 1,360 scientists and released in 2005.

Some 40 percent of the world’s coral reefs have been damaged or destroyed, water withdrawals from rivers and lakes have doubled since 1960, and species are becoming extinct at as much as 1,000 times the natural rate. Fish are among the world’s most threatened species. The world fish catch increased nearly sevenfold between 1950 and 2000 but has now leveled off at just over 130 million tons per year. Many of the world’s most important fisheries are being harvested at rates that well exceed their longterm sustainable yields. In some cases, such as Newfoundland cod, fisheries have collapsed in the face of overfishing, land-based pollution, and other stresses.

This is what scientists call a nonlinear change—one that is abrupt and potentially irreversible. Research shows that ecosystems can be overexploited for long periods of time while showing relatively little effect. But when these systems reach a tipping point, they collapse rapidly—with far-reaching implications for all who depend on them.

Abrupt change was much in evidence in southern Louisiana and Mississippi in 2005. For decades, the flow of the Mississippi River was altered, the wetlands at its mouth were destroyed, and massive amounts of water and oil were extracted from beneath the delta. These improvements to nature were considered essential for economic development—helping the region to become not only a great artistic and cultural center but the hub of the U.S. petroleum industry. Few noticed that the destruction of natural systems had left New Orleans as vulnerable as a sword-wielding soldier on a high-tech battlefield. A city that was above sea level when the first settlers arrived in the eighteenth century was as much as a meter below that level when the hurricane season began in 2005.

When Hurricane Katrina came ashore on August 29th, it took less than 48 hours for much of New Orleans and coastal Louisiana and Mississippi to be destroyed. The estimated $129 billion in economic damage from this one storm exceeded annual losses from all weather-related disasters worldwide in any previous year. And Hurricane Katrina was not an isolated anomaly. The average annual losses from weather-related disasters has increased more than fourfold since the early 1980s, while the number of people affected by these catastrophes has jumped from an average of 97 million a year in the early 1980s to 260 million a year since 2001.

The mounting toll from such disasters has several causes, including rapid growth in the human population—now approaching 6.5 billion—and the even more dramatic growth in human numbers and settlements along coastlines and in other vulnerable areas. Climate change may also be contributing to the rising tide of disasters, according to scientific studies published in 2005. Three of the 10 strongest hurricanes ever recorded occurred in 2005, and the average intensity of hurricanes is increasing, according to recent research.

This is not surprising, since the main fuel that drives hurricanes is warm water. Gulf of Mexico temperatures were at record high levels in the summer of 2005—turning Hurricane Katrina in just over 48 hours from a low-level Category 1 hurricane to the strongest Atlantic storm ever recorded. (In September 2005, Hurricanes Wilma and Rita each broke Katrina’s record as the strongest storm ever in that region.)

The average temperature of Earth’s lower atmosphere also set a new record in 2005. Although the official temperature record extends only to 1880, climate scientists believe that these are the highest temperatures experienced since human civilization began 10,000 years ago. Further, they note that we are now within 1 degree Celsius of the highest temperature Earth has experienced in the last 1 million years—before the emergence of Homo sapiens. The impact of the warmer temperatures is seen most clearly in the rapid melting of glaciers around the world. Also, the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by sea ice in the summer has declined by 27 percent in the past 50 years, according to the latest estimates.

This is but a foreshadowing of what is to come: the concentration of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas that is driving climate change, has reached its highest level in 600,000 years—and the annual rate of increase in these levels is accelerating, according to atmospheric measurements in 2005. This suggests that a positive feedback loop is coming into play, with ecological changes impeding the ability of natural systems to absorb carbon dioxide as well as causing some ecosystems to release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Global warming may in effect be fueling more global warming. We could be on the verge of a tipping point at which climate change shifts from a gradual process that can be forecast by computer models to one that is sudden, violent, and chaotic.

Scientists are beginning to shed their usual reserve in the face of ever-more alarming evidence. In early 2006 James Hansen, the lead climate researcher at NASA, and five other top climate scientists warned that additional global warming of more than 1 degree C above the level of 2000, will constitute ‘dangerous’ climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. If either the Greenland or the West Antarctic ice sheet were to melt, hundreds of millions of coastal residents would be displaced—a thousand times the scale of the New Orleans disaster. In the Shanghai metropolitan area alone, 40 million could lose their homes. And large sections of Florida would simply disappear.

In a notable media shift with important policy implications, U.S. news organizations declared in April 2005 that the debate on climate change was over. A cover story in Time magazine and a full week of coverage on ABC’s World News Tonight both acknowledged the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change. As Time said, By any measure, Earth is at the tipping point…. Suddenly and unexpectedly, the crisis is upon us.

The combination of mounting scientific evidence and revelations that ExxonMobil and other oil companies sought deliberately to muzzle government-funded climate scientists appears to have persuaded many reporters and editors to abandon their past portrayal of climate change as an unsettled scientific controversy. Time noted that many climate change skeptics are funded by the fossil fuel industry and that oil company lobbyists have assumed key positions in the White House and government agencies in recent years.

If melting ice and catastrophic storms are not enough to bring on an energy transition, the oil market is offering a helping hand. Oil prices in 2005 and early 2006 gyrated wildly, flirting several times with $70 a barrel, the highest prices in real terms in more than 20 years. The cause is simple: geologists are no longer finding enough oil to replace the 83 million barrels that are extracted each day. Although world oil production has not yet peaked, growth is clearly slowing—and is no longer keeping up with the demand for oil, which is growing at roughly 2 percent a