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Transportation Transformation: How Autonomous Mobility Will Fuel New Value Chains
Transportation Transformation: How Autonomous Mobility Will Fuel New Value Chains
Transportation Transformation: How Autonomous Mobility Will Fuel New Value Chains
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Transportation Transformation: How Autonomous Mobility Will Fuel New Value Chains

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Transportation Transformation is an indispensable GPS for every automaker, transportation startup, investor, policymaker, or regulator who is planning the future of urban and suburban transit, and anyone else with a need to understand the changing ways in which consumers an

LanguageEnglish
Release dateJun 9, 2020
ISBN9780998067735
Transportation Transformation: How Autonomous Mobility Will Fuel New Value Chains
Author

Evangelos Simoudis

Evangelos Simoudis is a recognized expert on next-generation mobility, artificial intelligence and big data, and corporate innovation. He has been working in Silicon Valley for 30 years as a venture investor, senior advisor to governments and global corporations, entrepreneur, corporate executive, and technologist. He is co-founder and managing director of Synapse Partners, a firm that advises global corporations on artificial intelligence, big data, and next-generation mobility, and invests in early-stage startups developing enterprise software AI applications. Evangelos is the author of the book The Big Data Opportunity in Our Driverless Future, a groundbreaking book that presented the importance of data and AI in transportation systems comprising autonomous vehicles and on-demand mobility services. Evangelos' investing career started in 2000 as a partner at Apax Partners, continued as a senior managing director at Trident Capital, and more recently at Synapse Partners. He has served on numerous private company boards and today chairs the board of Amobee/Singtel. Prior to his investing and advisory career, Evangelos was the CEO of two Silicon Valley startups and held executive roles with IBM and Digital Equipment Corporation. Evangelos is a member of Caltech's advisory board, the advisory board of Brandeis International School of Business, the advisory board of the U.S. Department of Transportation's Connected Cities for Smart Mobility Center, and the advisory board of Securing America's Future Energy. He has served on several commissions and task forces focusing on artificial intelligence, autonomous mobility, and corporate innovation. He earned a PhD in computer science (machine learning) from Brandeis University and a BS in electrical engineering from Caltech.

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    Transportation Transformation - Evangelos Simoudis

    Next-generation mobility will depend on the decisions of a dizzying array of players: automakers, mobility services companies, software and data companies, regulators, and consumers, just to name a few. The rigorous analysis presented in Transportation Transformation explains these decisions and provides detailed insights into the actions that will shape the future of the transportation economy.

    EDZARD OVERBEEK

    CEO, HERE TECHNOLOGIES

    To make informed strategic technology and business decisions in the space of mobility, you will need to sift through a lot of information ranging from vehicle technologies to city planning, filter out the hype, and synthesize the gems into a mental model that makes sense. You can save yourself a lot of time and resources by reading Simoudis’ Transportation Transformation instead.

    NIKOS MICHALAKIS

    VP, SOFTWARE PLATFORM, TOYOTA RESEARCH INSTITUTE—ADVANCED DEVELOPMENT

    Transportation is undergoing a massive transformation—no doubt about it. But what will be the path, the pace, and the endgame? How should companies and cities evolve to participate in these value chains? How to create value through data and new monetization opportunities? In this uncertain and ever more complex world, Transportation Transformation offers a valuable compass to develop one’s strategy. It is an essential read with accessible yet insightful frameworks which will enable executives to put things into perspective and select the type of transformation they choose to undertake.

    YANN BRILLAT-SAVARIN

    EVP, GROUP STRATEGY, FAURECIA

    In Transportation Transformation, Dr. Simoudis provides a sober view of the rapidly changing mobility landscape, carefully avoiding falling into the usual pitfalls. Well-researched, with deep insights, including a large number of intuitive figures and exhibits, this book reflects the expertise and maturity of the author in the field. This book is accessible to newcomers in the field, yet insightful even for domain experts!

    DR. CONSTANTINOS ANTONIOU

    PROFESSOR TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF MUNICH, CHAIR OF TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ENGINEERING

    It is difficult to separate noise from signal as the private and public sectors rush headlong to adapt to the massive trends of connectivity, autonomy, electrification and the move to shared models that are rocking the mobility industry. In Transportation Transformation, Dr. Evangelos Simoudis lays out a likely and compelling future for mobility and systematically breaks down how ecosystem participants must evolve. Read this book to understand how OEMs, mobility providers, cities and fleet operators must adapt to earn a right to play in the future.

    OHAD ZEIRA

    VP MOBILITY & FLEET VENTURES, AVIS BUDGET GROUP

    Using relevant data as well as vivid use cases, Transportation Transformation provides a comprehensive view of how the mobility industry and its value chain may be affected by the upcoming disruption. It also provides a useful framework for automakers, transportation companies, and cities to think about where they should position themselves in this new ecosystem.

    ALEXANDRE MARIAN

    MANAGING DIRECTOR, ALIXPARTNERS

    In Transportation Transformation, Evangelos Simoudis skillfully knits together the key elements of future transportation—the growing prominence of data, the rising influence of cities, the impact of new players and technologies, and the evolution of new value chains and business models. As an entrepreneur, investor, strategist, and corporate advisor on innovation, Simoudis applies a unique and refreshing perspective to the conundrum of how people and goods will be transported in the future. He also addresses such critical issues as how automated and manually driven vehicles will co-exist in the coming decade and whether incumbent automakers will manage successfully the transition to a new era of clean and connected multimodal transportation, one that is shifting inexorably from a focus on individual ownership to on-demand access.

    PAUL LIENERT

    TRANSPORTATION/TECHNOLOGY CORRESPONDENT, REUTERS

    Very few studies presciently forecast a paradigm shift before it occurs. Dr. Simoudis’ Transportation Transformation does exactly that, revealing key change agents that will transform transportation—everything from on-demand mobility services, fleet-based transportation networks, autonomous vehicles, and their associated value chains. More importantly, Simoudis gives us a complete picture that tells the real story behind the tech … the coming transformation has implications for our society as a whole, including much-needed changes in national and local governance. Anyone who wants to understand the nexus of disruptive tech, consumer mobility, and urban futures should read this book!

    LIEUTENANT COLONEL JAKE SOTIRIADIS

    PH.D., CHIEF, STRATEGIC FORESIGHT AND FUTURES ANALYTICS, HEADQUARTERS, UNITED STATES AIR FORCE

    Advanced technologies, new business models and evolving government regulations are transforming urban transportation as we know it. Transportation Transformation provides a vision and an approach of how the automotive industry, the mobility industry and city governments can collaborate and together chart new paths to both economic value and positive community impact.

    BRETT MAY

    COO IOT PRACTICE, MCKINSEY & CO.

    The automotive industry is evolving as new technologies and transportation modalities are becoming available and starting to enter the mainstream. Dr. Simoudis’ Transportation Transformation provides a comprehensive analysis and describes a vision of what urban transportation and logistics will look like. The book helps automotive industry executives prepare for the new world of mobility.

    STEFAN HEUSER

    VP AND HEAD OF INVESTMENTS, HYUNDAI CRADLE

    Transportation Transformation is an important and timely book. It presents the transformation that the transportation sector is currently undergoing as a result of the emergence of mobility as a service. Dr. Simoudis specifically focuses on this potentially disruptive technology from a very important perspective, namely, value chains that can be created by them. This excellent book will help readers from different backgrounds better understand the highly uncertain future of the transportation industry that is vital not only to our economy but also to every aspect of our everyday lives.

    DR. KAAN OZBAY

    PROFESSOR AND DIRECTOR, C2SMART CENTER, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND URBAN ENGINEERING, NEW YORK UNIVERSITY

    In Transportation Transformation, Evangelos Simoudis breaks down the silos between the players that will be involved in our mobility revolution—the auto industry, TNCs, new entrants, and local governments. He shows what these constituencies need to do in order to collaborate, how they can collaborate, and what will be potential outcomes if they do so successfully.

    ROBBIE DIAMOND

    PRESIDENT, SECURING AMERICA’S FUTURE ENERGY

    In Transportation Transformation, one of the most astute observers of these events, Dr. Evangelos Simoudis, gives the reader a guide to observing and participating in exciting changes in mobility, where he optimistically sees technologies, business models, and policy coming into harmony and providing affordable, accessible, multimodal mobility service options to commuters. He explores the vast implications for stakeholders, including ride-hail services, carmakers, cities, and consumers. The coming changes will impact us all, but here is a guide to how to benefit from those changes as an entrepreneur, an investor, or merely as a commuter!

    MICHAEL GRANOFF

    FOUNDER AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, MANIV MOBILITY

    No matter if old or new, all mobility stakeholders will have to make incredibly difficult decisions to evolve or face obsolescence. But where do they start? In his book, Dr. Simoudis clearly lays out the various decisions each player must face within the changing value chain. He makes a compelling case that mobility is a systems-level problem, and the simplicity of his breakdown should be a must-read for anyone trying to either disrupt mobility or defend against disruption.

    GAETANO CRUPI

    COFOUNDER, CABIN TECHNOLOGIES

    In Transportation Transformation, Dr. Simoudis has articulated a provocative and compelling vision for our mobility future. New business models and integrated systems relying on multimodal fleets of connected, autonomous and electric vehicles will radically transform the world with a promise of significantly safer, cheaper and more sustainable mobility, especially in urban areas. Dr. Simoudis rightly points to the need for rigorous planning and collaboration amongst a wide set of private and public sector stakeholders today to ensure the transition delivers on the promise and suggests that those who are not part of the transformation run a high risk of being left behind.

    CLAY PHILIPS

    AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY CONSULTANT, AND EX-DIRECTOR TECHNOLOGY COMMERCIALIZATION, GM

    The automotive industry’s value chain and business models have remained unchanged over the past several decades. Mobility services and autonomous vehicles are changing all that. They are leading to the introduction of new companies with novel business models organizing around new value chains. Simoudis’ Transportation Transformation lays out these new value chains, predicts how they will evolve, and what business models will dominate. Investors and entrepreneurs working in new mobility need to read this book.

    KEVIN TALBOT

    MANAGING PARTNER, RELAY VENTURES

    Transportation Transformation: How Autonomous Mobility Will Fuel New Value Chains

    Copyright © 2020 by Evangelos Simoudis. All Rights Reserved.

    No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without prior written permission from the publisher, except for the inclusion of brief quotations in a review.

    For information about this title or to order other books and/or electronic media, contact the publisher:

    Corporate Innovators, LLC

    www.corporateinnovation.co

    info@corporateinnovation.co

    Printed in the United States of America

    First Edition: June 2020

    Editor: Josh Bernoff

    Cover Design: Alex Camlin

    Interior design: 1106 Design

    Illustrations: Jens Kueter and Ad’m DiBiaso

    Pew Research Center survey from American’s attitudes towards driverless vehicles (2017), reprinted by permission

    Deloitte survey from 2020 Global Automotive Consumer Study (2020), reprinted by permission

    Disclaimers: The material presented in this book is not professional advice or services. Please consult a qualified professional advisor prior to making business or financial decisions. The publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, but make no representations or warranties with respect to its accuracy or completeness, and specifically disclaim any implied warranties. Neither shall be liable for any loss of profit or any damages. The publisher and author have no responsibility for URLs and websites not under their control. The URLs and websites listed in this book may have changed or may no longer be available. All trademarks and company names are the property of their owners.

    LCCN: 2020908941

    Publisher’s Cataloging-In-Publication Data

    (Prepared by The Donohue Group, Inc.)

    Names: Simoudis, Evangelos, author.

    Title: Transportation transformation : how autonomous mobility will fuel new value chains / Evangelos Simoudis, Ph.D.

    Description: [Menlo Park, California] : Corporate Innovators, [2020] | Includes bibliographical references and index.

    Identifiers: ISBN 9780998067728 | ISBN 9780998067735 (ebook)

    Subjects: LCSH: Intelligent transportation systems. | Automated vehicles--Technological innovations. | Smart cities. | Automobile industry and trade--Technological innovations.

    Classification: LCC TE228.3 .S56 2020 (print) | LCC TE228.3 (ebook) | DDC 388.312--dc23

    CONTENTS

    FOREWORD

    CHAPTER 1: THE FUTURE OF CONSUMER MOBILITY

    CHAPTER 2: THE STATE OF NEXT-GENERATION MOBILITY

    CHAPTER 3: THE FUTURE OF AUTOMOTIVE OEMS

    CHAPTER 4: THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY SERVICES COMPANIES

    CHAPTER 5: THE NEW MOBILITY VALUE CHAINS

    CHAPTER 6: THE ROLE OF CITIES IN NEXT-GENERATION MOBILITY

    CHAPTER 7: DATA DRIVES VALUE CREATION

    CHAPTER 8: MONETIZING NEXT-GENERATION MOBILITY

    CHAPTER 9: TECHNOLOGY RISKS

    CHAPTER 10: CONCLUSIONS

    GLOSSARY

    INDEX

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

    ABOUT THE AUTHOR

    BIBLIOGRAPHY

    FOREWORD

    How soon will we see a revolutionary breakthrough in transportation? Who will lead it? What will future transportation systems look like?

    A little patience, please.

    When it comes to personal transportation solutions, we are currently traveling along a giant arc, and we find ourselves part of the way between yesterday and tomorrow.

    We know that the infrastructure built in the 20th century for getting us from Point A to Point B is not working anymore. Many of our bridges and roads are in rough shape. There are too many cars blanketing too few roads.

    We are fed up with wasteful traffic jams, long commutes, and excessive emissions. Parking lots eat up millions of square feet of valuable city real estate.

    The time is right for a major shake-up, a revolution. All agree.

    Key agents of change seem to have arrived, fuelling our optimism. New technologies like electric and autonomous driving and smart fleets promise to spring us into a new and much more efficient future.

    Traffic will flow smoothly. Emissions will be reduced. There will be fewer crashes. People will be able to travel in a way that saves time and money, reduces stress, and is easier on planet earth.

    That is the vision everyone aspires to.

    But the path to this transportation utopia is neither simple nor easy. In fact, the road ahead is strewn with competing actors, interests, and needs.

    City governments struggle to keep pace and accommodate powerful technology innovations.

    Peoples’ travel needs in Boston are different from those living in Topeka. Singapore is vastly different from Stockholm, which is different from Dubai.

    Further complicating the picture: Global automakers are engaged in a life or death battle with mobility companies like Uber, Waymo, and Lyft for leadership and control of future profits.

    We also struggle to make breakthroughs because the new technologies are not yet fully mature. Or, because they have failed to deliver on their promises. Or both.

    Take the ride-sharing industry, for example. Uber and Lyft were initially met with enormous enthusiasm because they promised so much efficiency.

    Investors in new technologies imagined taking cars sitting idle in our driveways and putting them to work. Moreover, the narrative went, we could enhance efficiency by having several people travel together in a single vehicle.

    Voila—giant breakthroughs just around the corner!

    Well, hold on a minute. Yes, we have put more cars to work, millions of them, in fact. But these cars have, ironically, contributed to a huge increase in congestion in city centers. Most people are not into sharing rides—at least not yet.

    Electric cars follow a similar narrative. Yes, we can now achieve zero emissions. And governments in China and Europe have made electrics a national priority, backing the electric vehicle industry with subsidies and tax breaks.

    But battery costs remain high. And battery capacity, while vastly improved, still gives range anxiety to many prospective buyers. Consumers also wonder about the resale value of electric cars and how quickly their batteries will get depleted.

    Autonomous vehicles are another case in point. Euphoric predictions of autonomous cars taking over our roads within a few years have given way to a candid acceptance that we remain many years away from cars that drive by themselves on a mass scale.

    In early 2020 Gill Pratt, CEO of the Toyota Research Institute (TRI) in California, captured the mood with a few select words:

    The irrational exuberance came from [thinking] if you threw enough data and enough computing power at it, the performance would get so good. There isn’t anything that’s telling us [autonomous cars] can’t be done; I should be very clear on that, Pratt says. Just because we don’t know how to do it doesn’t mean it can’t be done.

    Basically, our enthusiasm for breakthrough transportation solutions is getting tamped down by today’s underwhelming (relative to expectations) advances in technology.

    So how to get unstuck? How do we advance toward a smarter tomorrow?

    One way is to change our way of thinking. Until now, our approach has been heavily one-dimensional. The car has been the center of the universe for more than 100 years.

    Automakers built cars. Cities built roads. And consumers drove cars on those roads and parked them in lots and at curbs. Many cities around the world were built for the car, not for and around people.

    This is especially true in America. Think of expansive metropolitan areas like Los Angeles and Phoenix, where car is king.

    But America does not have a monopoly on city traffic snarls. An afternoon driving across the densely packed streets of Jakarta or Beijing or Bangkok will make you pine for LA’s 405 freeway.

    In Transportation Transformation, Dr. Simoudis helps us to imagine a different playbook. Instead of thinking of transportation in terms of options—car or train or fleet or bus or scooter—we should begin to think in terms of systems.

    And those systems should be developed with people as the centerpiece.

    This is where the hard work begins. In the eyes of Dr. Simoudis, success requires a grand collaboration among three key actors:

    Municipal leaders

    Mobility services companies

    Automakers

    To get real traction, each of these three actors themselves will first need to undergo their own transformation.

    Governments will need to shift from maintainers of existing transportation infrastructure to founts of imagination. What should their cities of the future look like? One example: In early 2020, Anne Hidalgo, Mayor of Paris, declared her vision for turning Paris into a 15-minute city. She believes that the core of human activity must move away from the oil-era priorities of roads and car ownership.

    Automakers will need to undergo an ever-greater metamorphosis. Their core competence of manufacturing vehicles was for decades a hard-to-duplicate process with towering competitive moats. Today, the business of making cars has become a commodity business with wood-chip-like margins.

    Investors on Wall Street are crystal clear about where they believe the future lies. The Detroit Three—Ford, GM, and FCA—produce more than 17 million vehicles a year. Tesla, a technology-rich car company, might produce 500,000 vehicles in 2020, less than 5% of the Detroit Three’s total. Tiny Tesla’s market capitalization, however, surpassed than that of Ford, FCA, and GM combined in 2020.

    Traditional automakers must also embrace a new and different future where cars are a component of a larger system, not the central feature.

    As for the mobility services companies like Uber, Grab, Lyft, Didi, and Ola, the challenge is to see themselves less as powerful crushers of the status quo and more as vital new sources of technology that can help weave together efficient transportation systems.

    Importantly, as Dr. Simoudis notes, this transformation can be achieved only if all three parties—governments, mobility providers and automakers—are working together. (Yes, that is a big If).

    But assuming everyone can come together, when will we get there?

    Game-changing new technologies like the Internet circa the late 1990s and autonomous driving today follow a familiar pattern. In the early years, the hype exceeds the realities. But in the later years, the transformational impact of the new technologies far surpasses anything anyone ever imagined.

    So as we start a new decade in 2020, we should anticipate a slow ramp-up in handfuls of specific geographic areas. Think islands of progress, not oceans.

    Autonomous connected electric fleets of cars will expand in a zigzag nature as technologies and government regulations evolve unevenly. But by 2030, we should be witnessing changes to our cities that make us stop and say: Wow!

    One thing is certain: The first transformations will occur in cities. And they will probably occur first in cities where governments feel a strong desire to mandate for change.

    Central to the transformation will be the collection and analysis of data. City planning consists, first of all, of insight, and insight is collecting and analyzing data so you know how things are in the world today, according to Kent Larson, Director of the City Science group MIT Media Lab.

    Cities leading the transportation transformation of tomorrow won’t necessarily be locations where the cutting-edge technologies are developed (like Silicon Valley or Bavaria or Israel), but where they are first embraced by forward-looking municipal governments.

    Look for Asia to lead, followed by Europe. America remains a wild card.

    If we scour the planet for the most highly efficient transportation systems today, the wealthy island cities of Hong Kong and Singapore stand out as the leaders.

    Municipal leaders and companies in both cities have built comfortable, safe, clean, efficient, highly attractive and interwoven public transportation systems. I often complete a day of meetings across downtown Hong Kong without ever stepping out onto a city curb.

    China, for its part, is pursuing two bold initiatives. First, President Xi Jinping has given his blessing to invest $1 trillion over 10 years to construct a brand new smart city, Xiong’an, that will feature only Autonomous Connected Electric vehicles.

    In several other major Chinese cities, local governments are investing in 5G-powered infrastructure to connect with cars and direct traffic flows.

    In early 2020, Toyota announced plans to invest in its own new prototype city, a 175-acre site at the base of Mount Fuji, called the woven city. It will be powered entirely by hydrogen fuel cells.

    In Europe, cities from Helsinki to Paris to London are moving fast to make city movements safer, cleaner and more time efficient.

    What about the United States? Most American consumers are caught in that no man’s land where they are impatient with today’s transportation options but not impatient enough to demand dramatic changes.

    Los Angeles is leading a handful of U.S. cities with imaginative new systems for the future. Waymo and Cruise and Zoox are already testing on the streets of Los Angeles and San Francisco. Experts predict that we could see autonomous vehicle fleets deployed in sections of Los Angeles by 2025.

    All of the key actors in the arena have their eyes on money, of course. In our increasingly data-driven economy, whoever owns the data is in a strong position to reap future profits. Here, software-powered mobility companies enjoy a decisive edge over automakers. Will companies like Daimler, Nissan, and Ford find a way to catch up?

    Transportation planners within municipal governments battle an inherent money dilemma, too. How can they actively embrace new technology companies (and allow them to make profits) while also doing their core jobs—providing accessible and affordable transportation to all of their constituents? How much is the real estate of a city curb worth? How much will it cost to charge a drone-equipped delivery truck for a 10-minute stop?

    Any major transformation, of course, takes time. There will be U-turns and setbacks and advances. Many ideas will end up totally abandoned in a roadside ditch. As with all progress, we will advance by way of experimentation, persistence, and adaptation.

    Dr. Simoudis, as a data and future mobility expert, gives us this important book. He shows how the key actors can work together as catalysts of that transportation transformation.

    The world is ready for a better way to get from here to there. Let’s go.

    Michael Dunne

    CEO, ZoZo GO LLC

    San Diego

    March 2020

    CHAPTER 1

    THE FUTURE OF CONSUMER MOBILITY

    Traveling in the clogged streets of megacities like New York, Los Angeles, and Mumbai helped me envision a future defined by a radically different urban transportation experience for people and goods. That future is based on well-orchestrated fleet-based transportation networks, many of which include a wide variety of autonomous vehicles (AVs).¹ Privately owned vehicles are part of that future, but not at its center.

    In order to realize that vision and reap its many rewards, we will need to undergo a transportation transformation. This transformation will require systems thinking rather than component thinking because it will bring together into a single system public transportation, on-demand mobility services, and privately owned vehicles, instead of considering each of these transportation elements as a standalone silo. Its fabric will be woven from clean-energy automated and autonomous vehicles; intelligent transportation, communication, and energy infrastructures (some of which will be provided by smart cities); and sophisticated digital platforms that manage the transportation networks that will be created. These advances will all come together with the extensive application of artificial intelligence (AI) and big data. The purpose of this book is to describe that future and prepare you to thrive in it.

    As you’ll see throughout this book, the realization of this future will not just create new and exciting ways to get around—it will also pit two huge industries against one another. On the one side are the existing automakers like GM and Daimler, who will be stretched in challenging directions by the future of mobility. On the other side are the well capitalized and rapidly growing global on-demand mobility services companies like Uber, Didi, and Instacart. The companies in both of these industries are working hard to define the new world of mobility, stake out their role in that world, and assert dominance in the new sources of value it will create. The future I describe relates to the movement of both people and goods, specifically in urban and suburban settings. The key players in this movement are automakers, mobility services companies, and city governments. This book presents the decisions they face, the transformations they themselves will need to undertake before they can effectively participate, and the outcomes they can expect as transportation transforms. Goods delivery will undergo an analogous transformation, largely due to the impact of the same technologies that are changing how people move. Let’s take a look at how we got here . . . and where we might be going.

    The transportation transformation will start in metropolitan areas on a city-by-city basis. Urban dwellers globally have always wanted safe and convenient transportation at an affordable price. As cities grow and continue to transform, few have achieved this goal consistently with their public transportation systems. (Stromberg, 2015) (Berman R., 2018) Growing prosperity, often combined with neglect of public transportation systems, has enabled people to start taking responsibility for their own transportation. They use privately owned vehicles to make up for what public transportation systems cannot provide. For example, during the Industrial Revolution, city dwellers used horse-drawn carriages. At the turn of the twentieth century, cities like Paris, London, and New York were extremely congested—at that time, pollution was mostly due to horse manure.

    Automobiles and many other types of gasoline-powered vehicles have, of course, replaced those horses, and transportation infrastructures were built to accommodate them. (Schmitt, 2017) Since the Second World War, privately owned vehicles have been viewed as the answer to the need for safe, convenient, and affordable transportation. As a result, cities around the world are as congested now as they were in the past—and the pollution is in the form of CO2 emissions. For all their benefits, privately owned vehicles are just part of the answer for the future. A better answer requires a transportation transformation.

    In recent years, the emergence of transportation network companies (TNCs) like Uber signaled the beginning of the transformation of urban transportation. Using privately owned vehicles, below-cost rides, and innovative digital platforms, TNCs started by offering on-demand ride-hailing. Some have since expanded to provide additional mobility services. But even with TNCs’ discounted prices,

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