Brexit - The Benefit of Hindsight: King vs Rich Trade-off

By Peace E. Ani

Three years after the UK’s momentous EU referendum vote, multiple Brexit Secretaries and three rejected deals, the question remains: what exactly does the UK want?
The UK’s financial services sector is deemed to be one of the most vulnerable to the impact of Brexit, and the consequential effect on the rest of the UK economy could be devastating. Despite benefitting from access to the Single Market, a significant proportion of the financial services industry voted ‘leave’. But rather than being driven by anti-immigration or xenophobic sentiments, research indicates it was based on a rational assessment of the cost and benefit of the EU membership, influenced by the post-crisis regulatory reform. The industry is disproportionally impacted by Brexit due to the divergence of business models within the industry, based on the relative reliance on domestic, international or European trade.
Brexit – The Benefit of Hindsight analyses a number of economic indicators to answer the unanswerable question: what does the UK want? Will the UK economy suffer in the uncertainty surrounding our future or will we emerge stronger?
“This short and useful book about the potential impacts of Brexit focuses on the possible effects upon financial services. It succinctly brings together evidence from a  wide range of sources”

David Miles, CBE, Professor of Financial Economics and former member of the Monetary Policy Committee

“Overall, a fascinating read - the Founder’s Dilemma, in my opinion, added some extremely effective and fascinating psychological depth”.  

Paul Roberts, Business consultant and author of The Economist Guide to Project Management.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Troubador Publishing Ltd
• Release date: Aug 9, 2019
• ISBN: 9781838596705

Peace E. Ani

A financial services professional with over 15 years’ industry experience, Peace Ani has worked for leading global financial services institutions, across Investment Banking, Asset Management and the Specialty insurance market.

Book preview

Peace E. Ani is a financial services professional with over 15 years’ industry experience. She has worked for leading global financial services institutions, across Investment Banking, Asset Management and the Specialty Insurance market. Peace completed her Brexit research as part of a post-graduate research project under the supervision of David Miles CBE, former member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England. She published five op-ed articles on the impact of Brexit, based on her research.

Peace graduated with First class honours in Mathematical Sciences. She has an MBA from Imperial College Business School, and is also an Oxford University Scholar.

Copyright © 2019 Peace E. Ani

The moral right of the author has been asserted.

Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers.

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To both the ‘Leavers’ and ‘Remainers’,

with the hope of better prospects for the future generation.

Contents

Quotations from Interviews

Acknowledgements

Notations

Introduction

1.How We Got Here: 52%/48%

2.Uncertainty

3.Brexit, Financial Services, and the UK Economy

4.The UK’s Options

5.Recommendations

Conclusion?

Inserts B to E

Additional Resources: Brexit Jargon

References

Quotations from Interviews

The following quotations reflect a range of perspectives on the expected impact of Brexit:

The standard of living in the UK may decline.

David Miles, CBE, Former member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

A real concern is that the next generation may not do as well as the current that have benefitted from the post-war advancement.

Dr Richard Ward, Former CEO, Lloyd’s of London

London’s significance as a global financial centre may diminish, and shrinkage of the financial services industry is bad for the UK.

Nicola Horlick, CEO, Money & Co.

Brexit may bring significant disruption and poses a risk of a potential UK break-up, further discouraging investors.

Jacob Nell, Chief UK Economist, Morgan Stanley

Brexit presents a unique challenge.

Hayley Spink, Brexit Programme Director, Lloyd’s of London

Dublin may see a 5% growth, as it is perhaps the closest to the UK in terms of location, culture, language, and architecture.

Nicola Horlick, CEO, Money & Co.

Acknowledgements

The research for this book was completed as part of a postgraduate research project, and serves to add to the existing body of work with the objective of ensuring that the UK government, and UK-based businesses with an international footprint, are well positioned to benefit from any opportunities that may be a by-product of Brexit.

Although the author attempted to source data and reports from credible and reputable outlets, there is the acknowledgement that subjectivity might still exist in some reports and some commentary. This was mitigated through ensuring diverse media sources were utilised in order to improve the objectivity of the findings.

As the sand continues to shift under our feet, the Brexit process appears to unravel and reform at every turn. The full impact of Brexit is complex to analyse. What may be prescient conjecture one day is proven out of date the next, with many dynamics and disproportional impacts. It is likely to take several years before the full extent of the impact is known. Although all of the impact could not be addressed within the scope of this book, it is hoped that this adds to the existing body of work and provides a solid ground for future research.

I’m immensely grateful to Professor David Miles CBE, former member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), for his supervision and guidance on the effective approach for the research.

A big thank you to all participants of the interviews, namely Nicola Horlick, a renowned businesswoman, entrepreneur and author; Dr Richard Ward, former CEO of Lloyd’s of London insurance market and former CEO of International Petroleum Exchange (IPE); Jacob Nell, Chief UK Economist of Morgan Stanley; and Hayley Spink, Brexit Programme Director at Lloyd’s of London, for sharing their opinions and expertise on the topic.

I owe particular thanks to my family and in-laws, my parents Mr and Mrs Peter Osalor for being role models with a strong work ethic. I’m especially grateful to my husband, CJ Ani, for his support, companionship and inspiration through everything. He has had to put up with endless discussions about Brexit and review several versions of this book. A special thank you to my uncle, Harold Johnson, for teaching me how to play chess (a strategy game) from an early age. Parallels have been drawn between the endgame manoeuvres in a chess game and the Brexit impasse. I have been fortunate to have Paul Roberts as the editor of this book. From his initial assessment and further feedback, I have been able to create a more polished output. I’m grateful to all of my friends, previous and current colleagues in the financial services industry, for their support, mentorship, and exposure. I’m grateful to Vlad Sarca, my executive class-mate at Oxford University who encouraged me to publish this book.

Above all, I am most thankful to God, the source of all my blessings.

Notations

Introduction

Brexit, a blend of ‘British’ and ‘exit’, is the term used to describe the decision of the United Kingdom (UK) to leave the European Union (EU). Some economists have described this decision as the UK taking a leap into the dark in an uncharted territory with dawn still quite far away. On the other hand, a ‘Leaver’ may describe it as a bright new dawn. Whilst Brexit is inherently political, this research focuses on the economic and