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From Known Unknowns to Black Swans: How to Manage Risk in Latin America and theCaribbean
By Guillermo Vuletin, Carlos A. Vegh, Luis Morano and
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After a growth recovery, with an expansion of 1.1 percent in 2017, the region has encountered some
bumps in the road. The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is expected to grow at a modest rate
of 0.6 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019. This slowdown in the region's recovery is mainly explained
by the crisis that started in Argentina in April. the growth slowdown in Brazil. and the continued
deterioration of Venezuela. Furthermore, net capital inflows to the region have fallen dramatically since
early 2018, bringing once again to the fore the risks faced by LAC. In addition, natural disasters such as
earthquakes and hurricanes have brought devastation to the region with disturbing frequency. The core of
the report analyzes the foundations of risk. develops a theoretical framework to price risk instruments, and
reviews how LAC has managed risk in practice.
bumps in the road. The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is expected to grow at a modest rate
of 0.6 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019. This slowdown in the region's recovery is mainly explained
by the crisis that started in Argentina in April. the growth slowdown in Brazil. and the continued
deterioration of Venezuela. Furthermore, net capital inflows to the region have fallen dramatically since
early 2018, bringing once again to the fore the risks faced by LAC. In addition, natural disasters such as
earthquakes and hurricanes have brought devastation to the region with disturbing frequency. The core of
the report analyzes the foundations of risk. develops a theoretical framework to price risk instruments, and
reviews how LAC has managed risk in practice.
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