Powerless

By Richard L. Smith

Life is business as usual for two families in very different parts of the United States. Peter Dexter and his wife, Judy, raise a family and run a successful farm in North Dakota, while Dan and Nora Justin do their best to keep their kids in line in California. The families have been friends for years and face different challenges when a Corona Mass Ejection from the sun cuts off all electrical power across the nation.

The loss of power in America generates chaos throughout the country. Electricity? Gone. Mass transit? Out of service. Emergency services? Unavailable. The United States is cast into a new Dark Age, and the Dexter and Justin families struggle to survive despite danger and difficulty. Meanwhile in a distant land, enemy forces plot revenge. Radical Islamic terrorists see the power outage as a divine gift. Now, they have their chance to destroy America and replace it with an Islamic government.

Threatening the use of atom bombs, the terrorists try to gain control of the weakened American government. They strive to establish a caliphate on American soil, while civilians are busy avoiding violence and food shortages. Is there any hope for our powerless country? As the two families struggle to survive, a teenager will courageously fight to save the lives of thousands and become the object of a jihad.

• Language: English
• Publisher: iUniverse
• Release date: Oct 5, 2011
• ISBN: 9781462053667

Richard L. Smith

Richard L. Smith received a Masters of Arts in Religion from Westminster Theological Seminary in 1992 and a Doctorate in Historical Theology in 1996. From 1995 to 2001, he ministered in Prague, Czech Republic, with the International Institute for Christian Studies (now Global Scholars). In Prague, he taught a variety of subjects to non-Christians at the Anglo-American College such as: Comparative Religions, Intellectual History, The Bible as Literature, Ecclesiastes, and Business Ethics. He established evangelical relationships with students through movie discussions, Bible studies, and spending time together. He also served as the Interim President of the college for one year and served on the university's Founders Board until 2019. Richard co-established the Komensky Institute of Prague, a non-profit educational foundation, that published articles about missions and presented papers. He was also an Adjunct Professor of New Testament at Biblical Evangelical Seminary. Since 2010, he's lived and ministered in Buenos Aires, Argentina and served as a Senior Advisor for Global Scholars. He manages a website and blog, Cosmovision Biblica (Biblical Worldview), teaches and speaks, develops curriculum, and mentors students.

Book preview

Contents

Acknowledgements

Preface

Chapter one:

Santa Cruz

Chapter Two:

Solar Max

Chapter Three:

The Sky is on Fire

Chapter Four:

Blackout

Chapter Five:

The Power Grid

Chapter six:

A Farm in North Dakota

Chapter Seven:

Escape from the City

Chapter eight:

Hart Mountain

Chapter nine:

Willow Creek, North Dakota

Chapter ten:

On the Road to Montana

Chapter ELEVEN:

Montana

CHAPTER TWELVE:

NORTH DAKOTA

Chapter tHIRTEEN:

Back at the Farm

Chapter FOURTEEN:

Welcome to Willow Creek

Chapter FIFTEEN:

The Hearing

Chapter SIXTEEN:

Skullduggery

Chapter SEVENTEEN:

The theft

Chapter EIGHTEEN:

THe Plot

Chapter NINETEEN:

The plan springs a leak

Chapter TWENTY:

Canada

Chapter TWENTY-ONE:

Chaos is spelled with a C.

Chapter Twenty-TWO:

Life Goes On

Chapter Twenty-THREE:

It’s not over until it’s over

Chapter Twenty-FOUR:

The Search

Chapter Twenty-FIVE:

The Fatwah

Chapter twenty-SIX:

THe Cyprus Tree

Acknowledgements

Special thanks to my volunteer copy editors:

Ron and Ruth Richter

Anjali S. Angel

Jan Nettleton

Natalia Mead

And special thanks to my sister, Laurie Holmes

Preface

Citizens of the USA are a resilient people, yet we live on a knife-edge, one disaster away from a major change to our lifestyle. We have survived local catastrophes fashioned by fires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tornadoes, yet none of these natural tragedies affected the entire country. Consider a calamity that would cause nationwide devastation. If a small asteroid struck the country, or the Yellowstone super volcano erupted, or a gigantic tsunami caused by a landslide in the Canary Islands smacked the east coast, we would suffer a national disaster. Fortunately, such events are unlikely to occur in our lifetime, yet there is an event that might take place within the next decade. Scientists predict our Sun could produce such a calamity and there is nothing we can do to prevent it.

The Sun is the source of all life on Earth and we assume that it will continue to warm us, grow our crops and light our day, as it always has. Some ancients worshipped the Sun as a benevolent god, because for them it was an all-powerful, reliable, and unvarying ally of life. However, the ancients were unaware that the sun has a dark side. Scientists now know that our Sun is not only the giver of life, but also a potential slayer. The Sun’s nuclear furnace not only provides us with warmth and light, but each minute it spews out tons of elementary particles that can devastate our technology and wipe out life. Fortunately, the Earth evolved a protective magnetic shield that directs these deadly rays away from our planet and for the most part prevents them from reaching the surface. The Sun is not the consistent and reliable partner many assume. Like a spoiled child, it experiences periods of fits and tantrums, solar storms that erupt from its surface in massive explosions. Astronomers observe these outbursts as sunspots and flares, solar storms that discharge vast amounts of matter into the solar system. We call the worst of these tantrums Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), and if one of these was aimed at Earth, it could overcome our protective magnetic shield and cause nationwide destruction to our technologically dependent infrastructure. Electric power systems and orbiting satellites are especially susceptible to CMEs. Should one strike Earth, our power grid could be destroyed and our satellites disabled. We would be powerless for months.

A hundred years ago, we were not as dependent on technology as we are today. A CME back then would have had little effect on civilization, but today we are dependent on a continuous supply of reliable electric power to provide the necessities of life. Our entire infrastructure of drinking water, sanitation, emergency services, police protection, and transportation depends on the electric grid. Orbiting satellites provide weather information, TV broadcasts, communications, and global positioning data, and a CME could either disrupt or destroy them. Occasional power interruptions are inconvenient but seldom life threatening. Eventually, the lights come back on, motors again hum, computers calculate, and satellite TV broadcasts resume. Consider what would happen if we were without power for several months, disrupting water delivery, communications, emergency services, food availability, and even sanitation. Police, fire suppression, healthcare, and emergency services would be unavailable. The government itself might be threatened. Terrorists could take advantage of such national chaos and instigate their plan to establish a worldwide caliphate.

This is the premise of Powerless, the story of two families surviving in such circumstances and a group of radical Islamists bent on using the chaos to advance their worldwide caliphate.

Richard L. Smith, June, 2011

Part One:

Disruption

Chapter one:

Santa Cruz

Dan Justin seethed with anger and frustration as he drove across the small town of Santa Cruz, California. Minutes before, a telephone call from the Santa Cruz police department had dragged him out of an important business meeting. The police informed him that they were holding his youngest son at the city police station. Now he had to leave the meeting and rescue his 14 year-old son, Scott, from the police station. As Dan sat waiting at a red light, his anger turned to bewilderment. Dan and his wife, Nora, had raised three children and not one of them had ever gotten into serious trouble, at least not until now. Scott, the younger of his two boys, was the clown of the family, yet obedient, respectful, and never before in serious trouble. Bright, wiry, and small for his age, he loved the outdoors and sports. A crop of blond, wavy hair, deep blue eyes, and a broad smile made him a favorite with the girls in his class. Dan remembered that once before, the school counselor called him about Scott’s behavior, but it was a minor offense and soon forgotten. Although adventurous and prone to push family rules to the edge, Scott was dutiful and had a good head on his shoulders. Dan’s apprehension increased as he parked at the police station. What possible trouble could Scott be in? On the telephone, the police had not been specific, only saying that they were holding Scott. It must be something serious. Lately, Dan was concerned about Scott’s choice of friends. Whatever trouble he has gotten himself into must be because of the influence of those bums he has been hanging out with lately, or so he thought.

Tall, with a crop of black hair, radiant eyes, a square jaw, and lumberjack build, Dan had always easily made friends. An attentive father to his three children, and loving husband to Nora, at 49 years and hair tinged with gray, his responsibilities weighed heavily on his mind. Dan resented this intrusion into his busy life. After settling down in Santa Cruz, he returned to school to work toward a law degree. Now only a few units short of earning his pre-law Bachelor of Science degree at UCSC, next year he planned to apply to the University of San Francisco law school. As he made his way through the Santa Cruz traffic, Dan blamed himself for not paying more attention to his family. His desire to become a lawyer had placed his ambition above the well-being of his family, and now his aspiration had led to this problem with his youngest son. Scott did not seem like a teenager looking for trouble, yet without adequate supervision, he had found it.

Trying to fit school, work, and family into his day was almost more than Dan could handle. He fumed as he worked his way through traffic. His children needed to cooperate with his juggling act and not add to his problems. In his younger days, he had aspired to be a lawyer, and had enrolled in pre-law at the University of Santa Clara. By his junior year, he became financially unable to continue his law studies, and a campus recruiter suggested he write to his Representative for an appointment to the Air Force Academy in Colorado. The appointment came through and while at the Academy, he met fellow student and roommate Peter Dexter. They became lifelong friends. Shortly after graduation, he was assigned to Hamilton Air Force base near San Francisco, where met Nora Ingram. Dan attended a dance sponsored by a sorority at Cal State University and spied Nora sitting across the room chatting with her friends. He asked her for a dance and learned she was completing a business degree. They danced and talked the entire evening, and when the dance ended, Dan asked her for a date and she accepted.

Enchanting, smart, and beautiful, Nora soon captured Dan’s heart. Her olive skin and dark hair, warm smile and thoughtful personality attracted many other suitors, but soon she had no time for anyone but Dan. Initially attracted to Dan’s handsome face and uniform, she soon discovered the depth and warmth of his personality. She fell in love with him and after dating for a year, she accepted his marriage proposal. They wed in Santa Cruz, the home of Nora’s mother and father, Dee and Jim Ingram. Dan spent the next sixteen years as an Air Force flight controller and Nora followed him around the world, from station to station. Two years after they wed, Keith was born in the Azores, and then Scott, in the Philippines, and finally a daughter, Penny, in North Dakota. After sixteen years in the Air Force, a promotion to Captain, and assignments in the Azores, Philippines, Alaska, Germany, and North Dakota, Dan was encouraged by Nora’s father to resign his commission and take a job with a firm in San Jose. Tired of moving their family from station to station, Nora and Dan wanted to put some roots down. Dan resigned his commission and moved his family from his last assignment at the Minot Air force Base in North Dakota, to Santa Cruz. It was a good move for the family.

Nestled between Monterey Bay and the redwood forested hills of the Santa Cruz Mountains, the town of Santa Cruz provided an ideal location for Dan and Nora to raise their family. Situated on California’s Central Coast, 65 miles south of San Francisco and 35 miles north of Monterey, Santa Cruz County is ringed by miles of isolated beaches and several nearby parks. The area provided Dan and his family with all the outdoor life they desired. Santa Cruz schools were top-notch, jobs plentiful, and the area provided countless recreational opportunities from surfing to exploring the redwood forests.

With the help of Nora’s mother and father, the Justins bought a small three-bedroom house just three blocks from the beach and next to the San Lorenzo River. Dan never ceased thinking about his desire to become a lawyer, and a year after they moved to Santa Cruz he enrolled at the University of California. To allow time for his education, he quit his full-time corporate job in San Jose and took a part-time accounting job at a small business in Watsonville, south of Santa Cruz. Unfortunately, income from this job couldn’t pay all the bills and put food into the mouths of his growing family. Although she preferred the role of a stay-at-home mom, to supplement their meager income Nora took a paralegal job with a local firm. Even-tempered, strong, and independent, Nora was the glue that held the family together. She enjoyed her paralegal job, yet her duties did not allow her to supervise the children after school let out. Dan and Nora trusted their oldest son, Keith, now almost sixteen, to look after his younger brother and sister. Athletic, handsome, and a straight A student, Keith was a serious and sensitive young man, with ambitions to become a geologist.

His brother, Scott, on the other hand, was the opposite of Keith, always making jokes and avoiding hard work. Gregarious, playful, and imbued with a good sense of humor, Scott pushed life’s boundaries, exploring just how much he could get away at home and at school, before the ax would fall. He took pleasure in teasing his eleven year-old younger sister, Penny, and challenging his older brother.

Dan checked in with the police station desk sergeant, who explained that they caught Scott smoking pot under the boardwalk with several of his friends. Scott had less than an ounce of Marijuana in his pocket, so the officer said they were willing to release him to his parents. Dan thanked the officer and herded Scott into the family truck. On the short ride home, Dan said nothing. Scott’s stomach churned, as the silence only served to increase his apprehension. He knew his punishment was going to be severe and he imagined all sorts of sentences that ranged from extended grounding to extra household tasks.

They arrived home to find Nora, Keith, and Penny waiting for them in the front room. Dan sent Keith and Penny to their rooms, before explaining Scott’s visit to the police station to Nora. The Justin rules were clear. Keith, Scott, and Penny were to come directly home from school and do their homework, until Nora arrived home at 5 p.m. Rather than going directly home, Scott had begun hanging out with his friends and smoking pot. This behavior was a sure prescription for trouble, and as whiffs of marijuana smoke drifted from under the boardwalk, it wasn’t long before the police caught him and his friends enjoying weed.

Scott, what do you think your punishment should be? Nora asked.

They want me to punish myself? How about grounding me for two weeks, Scott offered.

Let’s make it a whole month, Dan added.

But DAD… there is a sophomore dance in three weeks, and I have a date, Scott whined.

A full month, Dan insisted. Call your date and explain why you cannot take her.

Scott stormed off to his room.

Dan turned to Nora and asked, Do you think I was too harsh on him?

Absolutely not, Nora intoned. I would have grounded him for two months.

Nora asked Penny and Keith to return to the front room. Keith, your brother has been grounded for a month. You kids are to come home directly from school, and Dad and I will depend on you to make sure that Scott and Penny stay home and do their homework, until I arrive from work. No one can leave the property without prior permission. Do you understand?

Keith assured them that he understood and would do as his parents asked. They sat and talked together for almost an hour. Keith told them about his intramural sports that he so enjoyed and Penny explained about a project she was working on, in her arts and crafts class. It was getting late, so they all said goodnight and turned in.

Nora, tomorrow will be a busy day for me, Dan shared. I have an Astronomy class at the University in the morning and then have to put in eight hours to prepare a client’s taxes. I probably will not be home until after 9 p.m. Don’t hold dinner for me, I’ll get some fast-food on the way home. As he rushed off to class, Dan had no idea that in the following weeks, circumstances beyond his control would soon conspire to end their comfortable life in Santa Cruz and threaten their very survival.

Chapter Two:

Solar Max

Dr. Jason Rawlins, a prominent Astronomy professor at UC Berkeley, drove as fast as caution allowed through the fog-enshrouded town of Santa Cruz, and made his way along the coast highway toward the University of California at Santa Cruz. The dean of the Santa Cruz Astronomy Department had invited Dr. Rawlins to lecture on his field of solar eruptions, and a late arrival would be embarrassing. He looked at his watch and sighed. It was 9:30. It seemed everything on this dreary morning had conspired to make him late for his 10 a.m. lecture. First, an accident in the Santa Cruz Mountains had delayed him for almost an hour; now this blanket of fog forced him to slow down. A few miles outside town, the fog bank lifted, allowing him to accelerate his 1991 Buick to the posted highway speed. He looked for a sign that would point the way to the University Campus and after a few miles a sign appeared out of the haze, announcing the turnoff to a winding road that led into the hills.

Nestled in the undulating golden foothills of the Santa Cruz Mountains, was the scenic jewel of the University of California system. Jason drove past the unguarded sentry post and granite rock monuments that watched over the campus entrance. Fingers of fog from nearby Monterey Bay crept along the foothill ravines and coated the campus in a blanket of damp, gray mist. He moved slowly up the road until the ghostly sentinels of buildings, perched on knolls and nuzzled in forested valleys, gradually emerged from the mist. Dr. Rawlins had never visited the campus and was uncertain which building could be the science building he sought. He drove along the meandering road that plunged in and out of pockets of fog, which made it difficult to find a sign pointing the way to his destination. Water droplets dripping from roadside trees splattered on his windshield and coated the cars parked along the access road. He clicked on his windshield wipers and was about to ask directions from a group of students, when a sign pointing the way to the College of Science emerged out of the gloom.

He found a visitor parking space in front of the architecturally spartan cement and glass science building, parked his car, and stepped out onto the damp pavement. The caw-caw of a noisy blue jay triggered a chill that crept in waves down his spine. With a shudder, he reached into the Buick and grabbed his sweater that rested in a heap on the backseat. As he slipped into the cardigan, he became aware of the silence that permeated the campus. The fog dampened the din of this busy campus, an eerie contrast to the cacophony of the Berkeley campus. He glanced at his watch a second time. It read 10:05. Surveying the front of the building, he hastened across the parking lot toward the arched entrance. A petite young woman with a blond ponytail, and dressed in shorts and a halter, hurried along the path that led to the front steps of the science building. Already five minutes late for his lecture, he didn’t want to stumble about looking for the auditorium, so he called after her and asked for directions to the Astronomy lecture hall. She turned and gave him a warm smile, a smile that chased away the melancholy that had enveloped him.

Oh, you must be Dr. Rawlins, she beamed. We’re both late to class.

Yes… we are, he responded.

My last class ended late and I am on my way to hear your lecture. Please… follow me.

Jason followed her into the building and down a wide hall lined with pictures, taken by the Hubble Telescope, to the double wide doors of the lecture hall. The auditorium buzzed with chatty students impatiently waiting for the scheduled 10 a.m. lecture to begin.

Dan Justin impatiently sat in a third row seat and stared at the empty podium. Still upset about his son’s brush with the law, he opened his notebook and nervously tapped his pencil. Older than the typical UCSC student, and with a family and job to juggle, Dan registered for this Astronomy class to fulfill his science requirement. He resented this late start to the lecture and looked at his watch and whispered, Five minutes late. The student sitting next to him heard his complaint, formed an empathetic grin and commented, Well, if the professor doesn’t show in another five minutes, we can leave and still get credit for the class. Dan’s many years in the Air Force had taught him that time was valuable, and now it was being wasted. As he debated leaving, Dr. Jason Rollins entered the classroom, climbed onto the stage, handed his slide cartridge to the audiovisual technician, and then stepped to the podium.

After taking a few seconds to arrange his notes, Dr. Rawlins grasped the podium with both hands and slowly surveyed his noisy audience. Despite the cold damp weather, he noted the male students mostly wore the standard campus uniform: Jeans, t-shirts, and backwards-facing baseball caps. The women students were dressed in shorts and loose-fitting shirts. Casual dress was typical for UCSC students, except for the older students such as Dan, who dressed conservatively. At first, the class ignored the professor’s presence and continued their noisy chatter, but then little by little, the auditorium began to quiet down. To capture his audience’s full attention, he used a time-honored speakers’ trick and without speaking, continued to survey his audience. After a few seconds, the students stopped chattering, arranged their pens and note books, and focused on the man at the lectern. Convinced he had gained the class’s interest, he took a deep breath and began his carefully prepared talk.

Good morning. I am Dr. Jason Rawlings, from the Astronomy Department at UC Berkeley. I am sorry about my tardiness, but the traffic on Highway 17 was terrible this morning. I am here today to talk about the sun, ironically on a day that it remains hidden behind a blanket of fog. I assume conditions such as this are normal for this campus.

A murmur of agreement swept through the auditorium. Jason gave a nod to the AV technician, and the room darkened as a picture of the sun filled the large overhead screen.

Our sun, a massive 900,000 mile-wide searing ball of hydrogen and helium, 93 million miles away, makes life on earth possible. The tremendous pressure and temperature deep inside that orb fuses hydrogen into helium, and the resulting nuclear fusion generates light, heat, and a flood of subatomic particles. Nuclear fusion and thermal convection within the sun are so complex that it has taken my entire career to understand this process. My focus has been the study of thermonuclear fusion at the sun’s core and convective heat transfer within the sun. Of special interest are the solar storms and Coronal Mass Ejections, or CMEs that result. This is the subject of today’s lecture.

Dr. Rawlins paused for a moment to make sure he had the full attention of his audience. Notebooks were open, pens in hand, and students seemed ready to hear his lecture. He continued.

Scientists in the nineteenth century couldn’t explain how the sun continuously produced such a prodigious amount of energy for billions of years. Neither chemical reactions nor gravitational collapse could explain this process. At the turn of the twentieth century, Albert Einstein solved this mystery when he devised his famous equation e=mc². Physicists for the first time recognized the sun was converting mass directly into energy. According to the Einstein formula, tiny amounts of matter can produce huge amounts of energy. The sun’s core is an immense fusion reactor. When hydrogen atoms fuse into helium, the resulting mass is slightly less than the original amount and the missing mass has been converted into energy.

Dr. Rawlins paused to take a sip of water before continuing.

Fortunately for you and me, our sun is an average, medium-sized orb, with a moderate appetite for hydrogen. As a middle-aged star, it will continue to shine for billions of years to come. Well-behaved and stable, it favors life with a constant and dependable amount of energy that outflows from its 7,000-degree centigrade surface. Yet, this apparent consistency is misleading. The sun’s energy varies over time and sometimes has minor fits and starts and hurls tons of particles out into space.

He pushed a button on the lectern, and a slide showing a picture of the sun’s corona, during a full eclipse, filled the overhead screen.

"I am especially interested in tracking total solar energy productivity, which waxes and wanes over thousands of years and sometimes even changes over a few decades. Variations in the solar magnetic field result in CMEs—as these high-energy flares and rarely, huge plasma eruptions. A CME aimed at Earth poses a danger to our technological infrastructure. Increases in the number and size of sunspots predict these infrequent solar outbursts. Sunspots are magnetic storms on the sun’s surface. Because they are a few hundred degrees cooler than their surroundings, they appear black against the sun’s radiant surface. Scientists have been recording the number and frequency of sunspots since the seventeenth century.

Our sun is not unchanging; it has continued to evolve throughout its entire 4.7 billion years of life. The sun that gently warms us today is not the same as the sun of the past or the sun of the future. Billions of years ago, our sun condensed from a huge cloud of hydrogen. Throughout a sun’s entire life, a constant struggle exists between gravity that wants to collapse it and heat that wants to expand it. Today, these opposing forces are in equilibrium and consequently, our sun has settled into a midlife phase, with a stable radius and relatively constant energy output. Such stability is ephemeral. Billions of years from now, when the sun has consumed its supply of fusionable fuel, it will expand into a red giant and engulf Earth in its fiery breath. Today the sun remains as we see it, seemingly stable yet experiencing minor fits and burps in the constant struggle between forces. It is these fits and burps that concern scientists."

A graph of sunspot events over the past 150 years replaced the eclipse picture.

Sunspots are evidence of solar activity occurring on the sun’s surface. This graph is a good example of those storms. By examining this 250-year history of sunspot activity, scientists have found two repetitive cycles of solar turmoil: An eleven year cycle depicted by the blue line and a twenty-two year cycle depicted in red. The activity depicted by the blue line rises to a maximum and then falls to a minimum, every eleven years, while the cycle in red peaks every twenty-two years. The two cycles occasionally coincide, producing an event called a Super Solar Maximum. Dr. Rawlins used his laser pointer to call attention to the peaks and valleys, where the two data streams coincided.

According to the latest prediction, the solar maximum, or coincidence of solar curves, began in 2008 and will peak by the year 2012. Given the coincidence of the eleven and twenty-two year cycle maximums, we could experience a Super Solar maximum event, in the period between 2008 to 2014. The dramatic increase in sunspots and flares will cause an increase in polar aurora, interference with our communications satellites, and even possible disruptions of our power grid.

In 1859, a solar maximum storm erupted that, had it occurred today, would take out much of our electric and electronic systems. This storm, named the Perfect Solar Storm, produced spectacular aurora as far south as Rome and St. Louis. The storm did not adversely affect those living in the technologically emerging nineteenth century. People only marveled at the beautiful, heavenly display. If today’s technologies, such as electrical grids and artificial satellites, existed back then, they would have been severely damaged, perhaps even destroyed by that 1859 event.

The next slide was a picture of the sun taken from the SOHO solar observatory spacecraft. A group of sunspots was visible near one edge of the sun. Protruding from the center of each was a sprite of plasma, extending thousands of miles from the sun’s limb.

"As shown in this slide, explosions and internal magnetic flux events deep inside the sun cause individual flares to erupt from sunspots. The surface broils at thousands of degrees, yet local eruptions are cooler than the surrounding surface and therefore, look dark when viewed against the brilliant background. Should a CME flare point at Earth, huge quantities of elementary particles will stream toward our planet at speeds approaching a few percent of the speed of light. Fortunately, Earth’s magnetic core provides an electric shield that deflects most of these charged particles into space. A small portion of the particles are funneled into the North and South poles, where they create the polar aurora, the Northern and Southern Lights. If the flare is unusually powerful and pointed directly at Earth, it can overwhelm this magnetic shield and power into our upper atmosphere. Recent CMEs, much smaller than the 1859 event, disrupted and damaged our national power grid and earth orbiting satellites.

The National Oceanographic and Atmosphere Agency (NOAA) manage the Space Environmental Center (SEC). Their task is to keep track of these potentially destructive solar storms and issue daily space weather reports. Our UC Berkeley solar weather office cooperates with the SEC, to issue warnings of unusual solar activity to communications and power companies, who take preventive action to protect their more sensitive equipment during these events.

Dr. Rawlins spoke for another twenty minutes, explaining in detail the sun’s process of fusing hydrogen into helium, the thermal mixing that takes place within the sun, and the magnetically induced solar flares and CMEs.

I will now take questions, he offered.

Dan Justin flipped through several pages in his notebook, filled with notes and sketches from the lecture. These would come in handy when he prepared for semester finals. Troubled about the destructive effects CMEs might have on the U.S. infrastructure, he raised his hand and Dr. Rawlins immediately called on him.

Dr. Rawlins, I’m curious about how likely it is that a major flare or plasma eruption would hit the earth and if it did so, what damage would it cause?

Jason cleared his throat and answered Dan’s question.

"Fortunately, it is unlikely that a major eruption will hit us anytime soon. Strong magnetic fields in the sun concentrate plasma ejections into very narrow beams. One such beam would have to point directly toward Earth when it erupted. Should we be so unlucky, a powerful CME could penetrate our Earth’s magnetic shield and wreck havoc with the electric grid, communications and electronic equipment.

One such flare pointed directly at earth and hit us in 1998. It caused power brownouts in Canada and temporarily shut down the entire East Coast power grid. It also disrupted satellite and land-based communications throughout North America. Fortunately, this particular flare was a moderate eruption.

Dr. Rawlins concluded his lecture with some spectacular three-dimensional pictures of the sun, taken by the SOHO space observatory. As the overhead lights brightened, Dan folded his notebook, placed it into his backpack, and hurried off to his next class across campus.

* * *

A week later, Dan had nearly forgotten about Dr. Rawlins’ lecture. He wouldn’t visit these lecture notes again until it was time to prepare for his final astronomy exam in May. Meanwhile, he had other distractions that focused his attention away from school.

As Dan sat in traffic, he tuned into a San Francisco news station. The local talk radio host was interviewing Dr. Jason Rawlins, about his prediction of an impending solar storm. Dr. Rawlins reported the SOHO observatory had recorded a major solar eruption, expected to arrive in two days, specifically on September 6. He warned that this unusually strong CME eruption pointed directly at Earth and could power through earth’s magnetic shield. If that happened, it would damage electrical and power equipment throughout North America and disrupt communications, including TV and GMS operations.

Dr. Rawlins went on to say that this could be the largest CME to hit Earth since the Perfect Storm in 1859, and this one had the earth and North America directly in its sights. He railed against the power and communication companies that had ignored his prediction and neglected to take the steps necessary to protect their sensitive equipment from this storm. It was understandable that companies would be reluctant to take action to shut down their equipment, if even for a few hours. A complete power shutdown would disrupt power distribution and communications networks and cost those companies millions in lost revenue. Jason argued that if they did not turn their equipment off for a few hours on the evening of September 6, the CME radiation could damage communications satellites and blow out transformers throughout the power grid. NASA should have the astronauts aboard the International Space Station take precautions. NASA was aware of the impending solar storm and was already acting to protect the ISS and the on-board astronauts. Jason expressed frustration that only one of the dozen electric companies he contacted, Bonneville Power, took his warnings seriously. The local utility, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, warned their customers about possible brownouts on the evening of September 6, yet refused to do anything proactive, like shutting the system down for a few hours. It was just too much to ask them to do.

Dan recalled Dr. Rawlins’ lecture and understood the astronomer’s frustration with the media. He thought it ironic that just a week after Dr. Rawlins said that such a CME event pointed at Earth was unlikely; he was now issuing a warning about this impending event. He turned the radio off and focused on navigating through downtown traffic. When he arrived at the police station, he paid his son’s pot possession fine and drove home. The boy listened to a long lecture entitled there is going to be a new regime around our house, which would start with Scott’s long-term grounding.

Chapter Three:

The Sky is on Fire

In the week following his lecture at UCSC, data collected from the SOHO satellite began to worry Dr. Rawlins. On September 4, the sun was unusually active for this phase of its eleven-year sunspot cycle. The number of sunspots exceeded even those born during the last solar maximum, eight years ago. After a few days, several sunspots merged to form an unusually large sunspot, and prominences erupted from the limb of the solar disk. Solar storms normally erupt in three stages. The first stage begins with an increase in sunspots and solar flares, followed by an eruption of high-energy protons and finally, a Coronal Mass Ejection. A CME pointed at the Earth with enough flux and polarity can punch through the magnetosphere and affect satellites, ground-based communication systems, and power grids. Stage one and two eruptions can cause the Earth’s atmosphere to expand and increase drag on satellites, occasionally causing one to fall from orbit. Stage three eruptions produce intense aurora and disruption of communications and our power grid.

A few monitoring stations on earth and the SOHO spacecraft detected stage one of the eruption, in the last week of August. Scientists now waited to learn the magnitude of stages two and three as measured by the ACE satellite positioned in a synchronous orbit between the sun and Earth. When the ACE data finally came in, it signaled an eruption 50% larger than the so-called Perfect Solar Storm, estimated at 200 Tesla, a measure of magnetic flux. Worse yet, this CME’s magnetic pole orientation was south, the worst possible condition, and pointed directly at North America.

Dr. Rawlins had never before witnessed such intense solar activity, not even during the solar maximum in 1981, considered the worst of the 20th century. He telephoned a close friend, Dr. Ernesto Constanez, at the University of Colorado. Dr. Constanez managed the world’s largest solar telescope, and Jason was eager to hear his opinion. Ernesto’s concern was palpable.

This is the largest solar storm I’ve ever measured. For now, it is on the backside of the sun, but in two days, the sun’s rotation will point it directly at Earth. This will not be a glancing blow like all the other major solar storms we have recorded. It will be a direct CME hit and could be as much as 300 Tesla, he advised.

Dr Constanez’s voice betrayed his frustration. The Space Weather web site sent solar storm warning alerts out eleven days ago, but it has been hard to get anyone’s attention.

Jason knew that few authorities took space weather warnings seriously.

Dr. Rawlins, you have to warn everyone. Perhaps they will listen to you. In four days, North America will experience the strongest electromagnetic storm in modern times. It will affect all electronic equipment. We should expect damage to unprotected and sensitive electronics and power transformers. It could overpower the electric grid, disrupt satellite communications, and endanger astronauts on the International Space Station. You have to get the word out.

Jason did not consider two days enough time to get the word out, but it was all the time he had. He promised Dr. Constanez he would do everything possible to pass his warnings along. He called reporters at the Oakland Tribune, San Jose Mercury, San Francisco Chronicle, New York Times and USA Today. The Chronicle transferred him from one disinterested reporter to another, until he ended at the desk of the Chronicle science editor. The editor was polite but only mildly interested in Jason’s information. He said he had already read a similar story on the Reuters Newswire, but details were sketchy and the Montreal scientist he spoke with did not seem at all concerned. A few astronomers have exaggerated this event, the editor asserted. The Oakland Tribune and San Jose Mercury reporters were even less interested, and the New York Times and USA Today never returned his call.

Jason called NASA and spoke to their science adviser about the possibility of a major solar storm. The NASA scientist was aware of the impending solar flare, but his information assumed it wouldn’t overpower the earth’s protective magnetic shield, which would shunt it harmlessly around Earth and into the Van Allen belts and outer space. He thought there might be some residual effects, such as unusually intense aurora and temporary communications disruptions and perhaps a power surge or two, but nothing his systems couldn’t handle. NASA intended to take precautionary steps and on September 6, ordered the astronauts into the interior section of the International Space Station, the safest place to weather a solar storm. However, they did not intend to postpone the next launch of Endeavor, scheduled for September 14.

In the September 4 evening edition, The San Francisco Chronicle printed a one-column news item about a potential solar storm on page 26. Poorly