The Ascent to Power 1996: The Howard Government

By Tom Frame

In the first of four volumes on the Howard Government's nearly 12 years in office, The Ascent to Power covers the 1996 election and the practical challenges of the Coalition's first year in power, including its handling of the Port Arthur massacre, relationships with the Australian Public Service, management of Senate crossbenchers, and reversing the budget 'black hole' and repaying government debt. With contributions from John Howard, Liberal and Labor politicians, media commentators, key public servants, and academics, The Ascent to Power takes a critical look at the Howard Government's rise to power, its performance, successes, shortcomings, and failures, in what Paul Kelly calls the 'foundational year'. Drawing on unpublished documents from John Howard's papers held at UNSW Canberra, the book will shape future assessments of the Howard Government and help determine its enduring place in Australian history.

• Language: English
• Publisher: NewSouth
• Release date: Jan 10, 2018
• ISBN: 9781742244020

Book preview

THE ASCENT TO POWER, 1996

PROFESSOR TOM FRAME joined the Royal Australian Navy in 1979 and after service at sea and ashore for 15 years, he resigned from the navy to complete his training for the Anglican priesthood. He was ordained in 1993, and was Anglican Bishop to the Australian Defence Force from 2001 to 2007. After serving as the Director of St Mark’s National Theological Centre from 2007 to 2014, he was appointed Director of the Australian Centre for the Study of Armed Conflict and Society (ACSACS) and more recently the Public Leadership Research Group (PLRG) at UNSW Canberra. He is the author or co-author of 38 books on a range of topics. His published titles include HMAS Sydney: Loss and Controversy, Stromlo: An Australian Observatory and The Long Road: Australia’s Train, Advise and Assist Missions.

A UNSW Press book

Published by

NewSouth Publishing

University of New South Wales Press Ltd

University of New South Wales

Sydney NSW 2052

AUSTRALIA

newsouthpublishing.com

© Tom Frame 2017

First published 2017

This book is copyright. While copyright of the work as a whole is vested in Tom Frame, copyright of individual chapters is retained by the chapter authors. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study, research, criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part of this book may be reproduced by any process without written permission. Inquiries should be addressed to the publisher.

National Library of Australia

Cataloguing-in-Publication entry

Creator: Frame, T. R. (Thomas R.), 1962– author.

Title: The ascent to power, 1996: the Howard government. Volume I / Tom Frame

ISBN: 9781742235288 (paperback)

           9781742244020 (ebook)

           9781742248431 (ePDF)

Series: Howard Government.

Notes: Includes bibliographical references and index.

Subjects: Howard, John, 1939– Political and social views.

Liberal Party of Australia.

Federal government – Australia – History.

Australia. Parliament – Elections, 1996.

Elections – Australia – 1996.

Prime ministers – Australia.

Political leadership – Australia.

Australia – Politics and government – 1996–.

Design Josephine Pajor-Markus

Cover design Luke Causby, Blue Cork

Cover image John Howard claims victory for the Coalition during the Federal Election

Campaign, 2 March 1996. Newspix / News Ltd

All reasonable efforts were taken to obtain permission to use copyright material reproduced in this book, but in some cases copyright could not be traced. The editor welcomes information in this regard.

CONTENTS

Contributors

Preface Tom Frame

1Perspectives and polemics Tom Frame

PART I: THE MOOD

2Menzies’ forgotten people and Howard’s battlers David Kemp

3Howard and Keating as friends, rivals, combatants Troy Bramston

4A candidate’s view of the 1996 campaign Brendan Nelson

PART II: THE OUTCOME

5Learning from campaigns Andrew Robb

6Howard’s battlers and the 1996 election Ian McAllister

7Did Labor lose or the Coalition win? Murray Goot

8Compulsion and liberty in the trial of Albert Langer Andrew Blyth

PART III: ASSUMING GOVERNMENT

9Economic management Warwick McKibbin

10 A vision for government Michael L’Estrange

11 The foundational year Paul Kelly

12 The new government’s agenda Kevin Andrews

13 The public service history wars John Nethercote

PART IV: ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES

14 The challenge of reforming gun laws John Anderson

15 Revenues come and go, but entitlements go on forever Gary Johns

PART V: LOOKING FORWARD; LOOKING BACK

16 1997: The year in prospect Nick Cater

17 The view from Kirribilli John Howard

18 With the benefit of hindsight Tom Frame

Appendices

IExtolling the Coalition’s victory Andrew Robb

II Explaining Labor’s defeat Gary Gray

Notes

Afterword

Acknowledgments

Index

CONTRIBUTORS

THE HONOURABLE JOHN ANDERSON AO is a former deputy prime minister and Leader of the National Party of Australia (1999– 2005); Minister for Primary Industries and Energy (1996–1998); and, Minister for Transport and Regional Development (1998– 2005). He served on the Expenditure Review (Budget) Committee, the National Security Committee and the Standing Environment Committee while in Cabinet. He was the federal member for Gwydir from 1989 to his retirement in 2007 when he returned to the family farm. He is also active in the not-for-profit sector. He chairs the New South Wales Committee of the Crawford Fund and the Overseas Council Australia (OCA).

THE HONOURABLE KEVIN ANDREWS MP has been the federal member for Menzies in the House of Representatives since 1991. He has held a number of ministerial appointments during his parliamentary career including Minister for Ageing (2001–2003), Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations and Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Public Service (2003–2007), Minister for Immigration and Citizenship (2007), Minister for Social Services (2013–2014) and Minister for Defence (2014–2015). He studied Law and Arts at Melbourne University before completing a Master of Laws at Monash University. Before his election to parliament, Kevin Andrews served as an associate to Sir James Gobbo in the Victorian Supreme Court before practising law at the Victorian Bar.

ANDREW BLYTH is a staff member at UNSW Canberra. He is the former CEO of the ACT & Region Chamber of Commerce and Industry and was previously CEO of the Energy Networks Association and a former chief of staff to several ministers in the Howard Government. He holds an undergraduate degree in Government and postgraduate degrees in International Relations and Business. In 2012 he was awarded a Fulbright Professional Scholar- ship in Australia–US Alliance Studies that he used to conduct research at the University of Texas into off-grid energy solutions. He is a contributing author to The Long Road: Australia’s Train, Advise and Assist Missions and is currently researching leadership education and training for new entry officer cadets and midship-men at the Australian Defence Force Academy. Andrew has been admitted as a Graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors.

TROY BRAMSTON has been a senior writer and columnist with the Australian newspaper and a contributor to Sky News since 2011. He was previously a columnist with the Sunday Telegraph . He is the author or editor of eight books, including: Paul Keating: The Big-Picture Leader (2016), Rudd, Gillard and Beyond (2014), Looking for the Light on the Hill: Modern Labor’s Challenges (2011), and, with Paul Kelly, The Dismissal: In the Queen’s Name (2015). Troy has worked as a policy and political adviser and speechwriter in government, opposition and the private sector. Troy lives in Sydney with his partner, Nicky, and two children, Madison and Angus.

NICK CATER is Executive Director of the Menzies Research Centre. He writes regularly in the Australian , the Spectator Australia and the Sunday Times and is a frequent contributor to public policy debate on television and radio. Cater began his career with the BBC in London before moving to Australia in 1989 to work for News Corp Australia, serving in senior positions as Hong Kong corre-spondent and editor of The Weekend Australian. He is the author of The Lucky Culture, editor of The Howard Factor, an adviser on the ABC documentary, Howard on Menzies, and series editor for the RG Menzies Essay Series, published by the Menzies Research Centre and Connor Court.

PROFESSOR TOM FRAME is Director of the Public Leadership Research Group at UNSW Canberra. He was a naval officer from 1979 to 1993, Anglican Bishop to the Australian Defence Force (2001–2007) and then Director of St Mark’s National Theological Centre (2007–2014). He is the author or editor of 38 books, including Anzac Day: Then and Now (2016), The Life and Death of Harold Holt (2005), Binding Ties: An Experience of Adoption and Reunion in Australia (1999) and Where Fate Calls: The HMAS Voyager Tragedy (1992).

PROFESSOR MURRAY GOOT is Emeritus Professor in the Department of Modern History, Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University. His most recent book is The Conscription Conflict and the Great War (2016), co-edited with Robin Archer, Joy Damousi and Sean Scalmer. He is currently exploring the history of political campaigning in Australia (with Sean Scalmer) and the history of opinion polling in Australia, Britain and the United States.

THE HONOURABLE JOHN HOWARD OM AC was the 25th Prime Minister of Australia, leading the nation from March 1996 to November 2007. He was the federal member for Bennelong in the House of Representatives (1974–2007) and filled several minister- ial and shadow ministerial posts prior to 1996. He was made a Companion of the Order of Australia (AC) in 2008 and a Member of the Order of Merit (OM) in 2012. He is the second-longest serving prime minister of Australia.

THE HONOURABLE DR GARY JOHNS is a member of the Prime Minister’s Community Business Partnership, a director of the Australian Institute for Progress and a Visiting Fellow at the Queensland University of Technology Business School. He served as the federal member for Petrie in the House of Representatives (1987–1996), Special Minister of State and Assistant Minister for Industrial Relations (1993–1996) and Associate Commissioner of the Commonwealth Productivity Commission (2002–2004). Johns received the Centenary Medal and the 2002 Fulbright Professional Award in Australian–United States Alliance Studies. He was a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs, senior consultant at ACIL Tasman, and Associate Professor at the Australian Catholic University. Gary is a columnist for the Australian and the Spectator Australia.

PAUL KELLY is Editor-at-Large at the Australian newspaper. He was previously Editor-in-Chief and writes on Australian politics, public policy and international affairs. Kelly has covered Australian governments from Gough Whitlam to Malcolm Turnbull. He is a regular television commentator on the Sky News program, Australian Agenda. He is the author of nine books including The End of Certainty on the politics and economics of the 1980s, Triumph and Demise on the Rudd–Gillard era and The March of Patriots, providing a reinterpretation of Paul Keating and John Howard in office. He holds a Doctor of Letters from Melbourne University and in 2010 was a Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow. He is also a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia. Kelly is a longstanding participant in the Australian–American Leadership Dialogue. He has been a Fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and the Menzies Centre at King’s College London.

THE HONOURABLE DR DAVID KEMP AC was a Cabinet Minister in the Howard Government, holding portfolios in the areas of Education and the Environment. He served as federal member for Goldstein (1990–2004). He was Professor of Politics at Monash University (1979–1990), President of the Victorian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia (2007–2011), and conducted the review of the 2014 Victorian election result. He is currently chair of the Museum of Australian Democracy at Old Parliament House, chair of the Australian Heritage Council and a board member of the Grattan Institute for Public Policy. He has a doctorate from Yale University in Political Science and is the author of several works including Society and Electoral Behaviour in Australia and Foun- dations for Australian Political Analysis. He edited and introduced The Forgotten People and Other Studies in Democracy and authored the chapter ‘The Political Philosophy of Robert Menzies’ in JR Nethercote’s edited volume, Menzies and the Shaping of Modern Australia.

PROFESSOR MICHAEL L’ESTRANGE AO has been a Rhodes Scholar (1976–1979) and a Harkness Fellow (1987–1989). He joined the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet in 1981 and later worked on the staff for several Coalition leaders (1989–1994) before becoming the inaugural Director of the Menzies Research Centre in 1995. In 1996 he was appointed by the Prime Minister as Secretary to Cabinet and Head of the Cabinet Policy Unit. He served in that role until he was appointed Australia’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom (2000–2005). He then became Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (2005– 2009). Michael was Professor of National Security at the Australian National University’s National Security College (2009–2016) and the inaugural Head of the College (2009–2015). He is currently a non-executive director on the Boards of Rio Tinto and Qantas, as well as a member of the board of directors of the University of Notre Dame Australia.

PROFESSOR IAN MCALLISTER FASSA FRSE is the Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the Australian National University. He previously held chairs at UNSW Canberra and the University of Manchester. His most recent books are Conflict to Peace: Society and Politics in Northern Ireland Over Half a Century (2013), The Australian Voter: 50 Years of Change (2011) and Political Parties and Democratic Linkage (2011). He has been director of the Australian Election Study since 1987, a large national post-election survey of political attitudes and behaviour. He is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia and a corresponding Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. His scholarly research covers Australian politics, comparative political behaviour and post-communist politics. He is currently completing a book on Russian voting and elections.

PROFESSOR WARWICK MCKIBBIN AO has a Vice Chancellor’s Chair in Public Policy and is Director of the Centre for Applied Macro- economic Analysis (CAMA) in the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University (ANU). He is also an ANU Public Policy Fellow; a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Social Sciences; a Distinguished Fellow of the Asia and Pacific Policy Society; a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC and President of McKibbin Soft-ware Group. He was appointed an officer of the Order of Australia (AO) in 2016 and the Centenary Medal in 2003. He has published over 200 peer-reviewed papers and five books.

THE HONOURABLE DR BRENDAN NELSON AO was the federal member for Bradfield in the House of Representatives (1996– 2008). Following the 2001 election he was appointed Minister for Education, Science and Training. In 2006 he became Minister for Defence at a time when Australian troops were deployed to Iraq, Afghanistan, East Timor and the Solomon Islands. In November 2007, he was elected leader of the Liberal Party of Australia and served as Leader of the Opposition until September 2008. The following year he retired from political life before taking up the post of Australian Ambassador to Belgium, Luxembourg, the European Union and NATO. In 2012, Dr Nelson was appointed Director of the Australian War Memorial.

ADJUNCT PROFESSOR JOHN NETHERCOTE is Adjunct Professor, Canberra Campus, Australian Catholic University. After joining the Australian public service he worked variously for the Public Service Board, the Royal Commission on Australian Government Administration and the Public Service Commission of Canada. He was for a time secretary to the Senate Standing Committee on Finance and Public Administration. He was editor of the Canberra Bulletin of Public Administration for several decades and recently edited Menzies: The Shaping of Modern Australia (2016).

THE HONOURABLE ANDREW ROBB AO became Deputy Federal Director of the Liberal Party before he was appointed Chief of Staff to the Leader of the Opposition (Andrew Peacock) in 1989. The following year he was appointed Federal Director of the Liberal Party and continued in the role until 1997 when he commenced a career in business and community service. He was appointed an Officer of the Order of Australia (AO) for his service to agriculture, politics and the community in 2003. He served as federal member for Goldstein in the House of Representatives (2004–2016), and held a number of positions including Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs and Minister for Vocational and Further Education. In 2013 he was appointed Minister for Trade and Investment and successfully negotiated the Free Trade Agreements with South Korea, Japan and China. He is now a business and trade consultant.

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed by the contributors are their own opinions and do not necessarily represent the position of the Commonwealth of Australia, the University of New South Wales, the Australian Labor Party, the Liberal Party of Australia, the National Party of Australia or any organisations with which the contributors were or are now associated. The publication of their chapter in this book does not imply any official agreement or formal concurrence with any opinion, criticism, conclusion or recommendation attributed to them.

PREFACE

TOM FRAME

UNSW Canberra entered into an arrangement with the National Archives of Australia in August 2014 to transfer the official papers of the former prime minister, the Honourable John Howard OM AC, to the Academy Library. Mr Howard had personally proposed the transfer because his government’s term of office (1996–2007) coincided with extensive military involvements in East Timor, Bougainville, the Solomon Islands, Iraq and Afghanistan, to mention only the major deployments. He felt that his papers were more likely to be consulted by researchers if held at the Defence Academy. The transfer of the ‘John Howard Collection’ is the first time in the nation’s history that a university has become the custodian of an Australian prime minister’s official papers. Similar institutions associated with previous national leaders have not been assisted by such a significant agreement.

The John Howard Collection will form the basis of the Howard Library being established by UNSW Canberra at old Parliament House in Canberra. The other elements are the Howard Government Collection, consisting of the personal papers of Coalition ministers, and the Ruddock Archive, a comprehensive compendium of every major Howard Government report and statement retained by the Honourable Philip Ruddock, the Coalition’s immigration minister and attorney-general. The creation of the Howard Library represents a ‘moment in time’ that will not be repeated in Australian history. Established within a decade of its final days, the library’s principal objective is to become a comprehensive repository of print, electronic and multimedia materials allowing researchers to access all significant resources at a single venue. Before much of this material is dispersed or destroyed – the blight of other prime ministerial collections – the library will attempt to assemble every prime ministerial statement, ministerial media release, party room discussion paper, official government announcement and parliamentary report produced between 1996 and 2007. The university hopes to make primary research more attractive and more efficient while helping to ensure that commentary on the Howard years rests on a firm evidentiary base.

The library will encourage and foster research into every aspect of the Howard Government, not only in the Defence sphere. It will produce source guides for the John Howard Collection, the Howard Government Collection and the Ruddock Archive; continue to consult the former prime minister annually on matters related to his parliamentary career not previously canvassed by journalists or academics; and conduct an oral history program with leading parliamentarians (of all parties) and public servants of the period. In addition to this, the library will promote four annual conferences focusing on the performance of the Howard governments (1996–1998, 1998–2001, 2001–2004 and 2004–2007) leading to four published works with the working titles: The Ascent to Power, 1996: The Howard Government Volume I; Back from the Brink, 1997–2001: The Howard Government Volume II; Trials and Transformations, 2001–2004: The Howard Government Volume III; and The Demand for Change, 2004–2007: The Howard Government Volume IV.

The first volume published here covers the 1996 election campaign and the Liberal–National victory; the Coalition’s readiness for office and its transition to power; and the main policy decisions and practical challenges of the Howard Government’s first year. The second volume will deal with the second and third years of the Coalition’s initial term of office (1997–1998) and most of its second term (1998–2001). It will include the aftermath of the High Court’s Wik decision and recognition of native title, the Patrick’s waterfront dispute, the constitutional convention, the Coalition’s near defeat at the 1998 election, the government’s response to the post-independence plebiscite violence in East Timor, and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). The narrative will end with the Aston by-election in mid-2001, just before the collapse of Ansett Airlines, the ‘9/11’ terrorist attacks in the United States and the invasion of Afghanistan. The third volume will focus on the controversial events leading to the 2001 election including the MV Tampa crisis and subsequent foreign policy challenges in the Pacific, including Fiji and the Solomon Islands, and the decision to invade Iraq. The final volume is concerned with 2004–2007 and will focus on the Coalition’s Work Choices policy, Indigenous Reconciliation, the Northern Territory intervention and the November 2007 election when the Coalition lost office and the Prime Minister lost his seat in parliament.

Contributors to each of these volumes are asked to focus criti- cally on the Coalition’s policies and performance to reveal the government’s shortcomings and failures. The aim is to be analytical rather than celebratory (although giving praise where due), to create an atmosphere of open and balanced inquiry. Those who contributed to the history being examined will make the most of the passage of time – that is, they will write with the benefit of hindsight.

This volume appears alongside a wider shift from commentary to analysis of the period 1996–2007. The official records relating to the Howard governments will be progressively released from 2019, so these volumes represent an interim phase between firsthand accounts and tentative judgments to the production of more confident works that are entitled to stand as comprehensive accounts of the Howard years. As interim works, these volumes identify the key questions that scholars will need to consider when the closed period for access to the first tranche of Howard-era official records expires.

Many of the chapters appearing in this book were given a ‘trial run’ as presentations delivered at a conference held at UNSW Canberra in November 2016. Each of the presentations was followed by a rigorous Q&A discussion, and presenters were provided with a video recording of their session to aid the drafting of their chapter. A third of the chapters did not begin as presentations simply because there was not enough space for them in the tightly packed conference program. They were commissioned as com- panion pieces to ensure this volume did not overlook any major aspect of the Coalition’s election campaign or its performance within the first year of taking office. Policy issues and practical matters that span a number of years will be addressed in future volumes.

1

PERSPECTIVES AND POLEMICS

TOM FRAME

When you say something is ‘consigned to history’ it might imply that it has no contemporary relevance or continuing significance; that it is best forgotten and wisely struck from memory; and, that its slide from the present to the past ought to be welcomed. Consigning something to history is analogous in many instances to saying ‘good riddance’ to an unwanted object. But the notion has a positive implication too. Consigning something to history places it beyond the uncertainty and confusion of the present; suggests that it ought to be treated with dignity and respect because it provides a context in which the future might be anticipated; and encour-ages a closer and more conscientious examination of its shape and substance. In most Western societies, history is respected and revered, preserved and presented as a treasured storehouse of insights and wisdom, promise and possibility. Because students of history sometimes replicate its tragedies, people can be sceptical about the claim that those who are ignorant of history are likely to repeat its mistakes. Yet there is no doubt that commentary immediately after an event will never stand as the final word. Dispas-sionate historical analysis takes time and the benefits ought to be savoured.

The Howard Government is now being consigned to history. This statement stands on four observations. First, the Howard Government was elected more two decades ago and defeated a decade ago (at the time of writing). The passage of time has allowed the dust to settle making the genuine successes and actual failures of the Coalition a little easier to discern. Only some of what appeared to have importance between 1996 and 2007 now matters. Decisions that were hailed as triumphs and policies derided as failures are now free from the forces that obscured their character and the immediacy that concealed their significance. The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), for instance, did not produce the range of adverse outcomes forecast by pundits and no political party is campaigning for its repeal. Although supporting the new tax in the Senate contributed to the demise of the Australian Democrats as a political force, the party’s leader Meg Lees continues to believe the country needed a consumption tax.¹ The passage of time has made it possible for historians to apply the principles of their discipline to the place of the Howard Government in the nation’s life.

Second, the Howard Government is no longer the ‘previous Coalition Government’ against which the performance of subsequent governments is compared. The performance of the Rudd and Gillard governments was routinely compared with the achievements of the Howard Government. These contrasts may have been unfair and the conclusions drawn inaccurate but they were still made. Commentators noted the buoyancy of the economy during the Coalition’s rule under John Howard and Treasurer Peter Costello (1996–2007) compared with its health under Kevin Rudd and Treasurer Wayne Swan (2007–2010), and then Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan (2010–2013), and finally (and briefly) Kevin Rudd and Treasurer Chris Bowen (2013). But after the Liberal Party’s decision to substitute Malcolm Turnbull for Tony Abbott as Party Leader and Prime Minister in September 2015, the Turnbull Government has been more frequently compared with the Abbott Government (2013–2015), with Coalition parliamentarians who regret the leadership spill and the deposition of an incumbent prime minister emphasising the contrasts between the two. In the same way that the Coalition could criticise the Keating Government (1991–1996) by comparing it with the performance of the Hawke Government (1983–1991), thereby effectively consigning the Whitlam Government (1972–1975) to history, the continuing tension between Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull has effectively hastened the eclipse of the Howard Government’s significance as a political yardstick and allowed more measured and less polemical historical assessment.

Third, the publication of firsthand accounts of the Howard Government has considerably enlarged the source materials needed by historians to make judgments and draw conclusions. Howard has been the subject of biographies by David Barnett (with Pru Goward) published in 1997; and by Wayne Errington and Peter van Onselen published in 2007.² Notably, the first appeared not long after Howard became prime minister; the second not long before he became a former prime minister. Howard produced his own substantial account, Lazarus Rising: A Personal and Political Autobiography, in October 2010.³ Memoirs and diaries from senior ministers have been produced or published by Peter Costello, Tony Abbott and Peter Reith.⁴ In each instance, these works explain and clarify decisions and events that the participants expect historians to take into account when assessing the Howard Government. They are better treated as historical resources than as histories in their own right.

Fourth, the official records relating to the Howard Government’s first year in office will be made available to researchers on 1 January 2019. This might seem an odd moment – 23 years after the Coalition was elected in March 1996. Under amendments to the Archives Act 1983 that were approved by the federal parliament in May 2010, the closed period for Commonwealth records will be gradually reduced from 30 years to 20 years by 1 January 2021. As a function of the reduced waiting time, records from 1996 will be available early in 2019. It is, of course, difficult for historians to produce critical and comprehensive assessments of the Howard Government without access to official records which will disclose confidential advice, guidance and the warnings that were provided to the government, the timing of particular announcements or the basis for certain decisions, and the names and motivations of those members and senators who agreed or disagreed privately with policy options. Official records may also hint at controversies that were avoided, scandals that were concealed and disagreements that were subdued. Reducing the closed period also increases the opportunity for researchers to conduct interviews with surviving participants based on primary source materials. With the release of official records not far away, historians will be able to assemble the best picture possible of the Howard Government.

In assessing the years 1996–2007, researchers also need to be self-aware and conscious of that well-known taxonomy that suggests the historical record passes through at least three well- defined stages. In the first stage, history is written by the victors or survivors, largely from published sources, within a framework of ‘conventional wisdom’ shared by the participant writers. In the second stage, the conventional paradigm handed down from the participant writers is challenged, often a priori, by a later generation of non-participant writers. In the third stage, non-participant writers not only challenge the received paradigm, but perceive the evidence (and the questions to be asked of it) in entirely different ways from earlier generations of participant writers.

The rise and fall of the Howard Government has already been described by a handful of active participants including journalists (who made the news as much as they reported it), public servants and cabinet ministers. These are essentially personal accounts of what was seen, heard and done although the publication of politi- cal memoirs relies upon familiarity with matters that, in some instances, remain the subject of