Ten Questions On Could China Win the Next War?: Insights of the East and South China Seas Conflict from a China Watcher

By Senator Wong

This book is written for all who are interested to know the likely outcomes to the island disputes that are occurring in the Asia-Pacific region revolving around countries such as China, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia & Brunei and with the involvement of powers such as the United States, India and Russia. More powers will come into the scene to lay their bids and situation would become more complicated over time.

As a China-watcher for the past 20 years, I am sharing my personal view, assessment and prediction of the likely outcome of the island disputes in the East and South China Seas based on historical, political, psychological and military perspectives.

For many who are watching the developments, I am sure there some lingering questions as to the likely outcome. Questions that people are interested include:

a. Will China go to war?
b. Will China go to war with Japan?
c. Will China go to war with the U.S.?
d. Will Japan attack China?
e. Will the U.S. attack China?
f. Could China win the next war

As events in the East and South China Seas unfold further, I believe that people are interested to know the answers to the above questions, as well as some others related questions.

In this book, I will attempt to provide some personal insight into the likely outcomes by way of Q&A. Hence, the title of the book is "Ten Questions on Could China Win the Next War?"

• Language: English
• Publisher: eBookIt.com
• Release date: Apr 26, 2016
• ISBN: 9789810795030

Book preview

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1

What Are the Security Threats Confronting China?

The current security situation surrounding China has progressively become more critical, especially with the United States (U.S.) strategy of pivoting toward the Asia-Pacific and allowing the remilitarizing of Japan because of the growing threats from a rising China and North Korea. The U.S. also seems inclined to punish China for its inability to control the North Korean regime’s quest to acquire nuclear weapons.

The current situation in the Asia-Pacific region is tantamount to a game animation of two dragon slayers represented by the U.S. and Japan, desperately attempting to slay a rising dragon represented by China, to prevent it from been fully airborne.

Events are still unfolding at the time of this writing, and therefore, the immediate and foreseeable threats to Chinese security in the next five to 10 years come from the United States, Japan, India, the Philippines, North and South Korea, Vietnam and Malaysia.

Firstly, with North Korea’s nuclear weapons program turning operational and with the fluid and evolving political situation within the country, the world and, in particular, the U.S. and South Korea expect China to exercise more control over the North Korean regime. Unfortunately, the situation seems to be out of Chinese control, especially with the current North Korean regime led by Kim Jong-un.

The young Kim is constantly trying to consolidate his position and his national ambitions toward operational nuclear capability. His confrontational military posture toward South Korea has already invited the military presence of the U.S. and South Korea, or even Japan, to conduct naval exercises near the Yellow Sea, thus posing a grave military situation at the northeastern and eastern Chinese borders. Should the political situation in North Korea turn chaotic, any military intervention by the U.S. and South Korea toward North Korea could again jeopardize the security situation at China’s northeastern border further. How would the Chinese respond if such a situation occurs?

Secondly, the U.S. strategy of pivoting toward the Asia-Pacific has also posed an imminent threat to China’s security, especially toward its claim for islands in the East and South China Seas. Besides the unresolved issue of Taiwan, which China views as a renegade state, Japan has ventured to claim the Senkaku Islands—also known to Chinese as Diaoyudao, or Tianyutai to the Taiwanese—as part of the islands belonging to Japan, thus complicating the issue and posing a grave security threat from the East China Sea.

Diaoyudao is an uninhabited island lying some 330 km away from the Chinese mainland in the East China Sea. It is some 170km north of Taiwan and some 410 km from Naha in the Ryukyu Islands south of Japan. All parties claim ownership of the islands, and therefore the sovereignty status of the island is in dispute—hence, the term disputed islands. Accordingly, the Japanese government had been given the administrative right over the disputed islands by the U.S. in 1972, but the Japanese have unilaterally assumed sovereign rights to the islands. Historically, the islands were part of Taiwan. With Taiwan being part of China, both the Chinese in China and the Chinese in Taiwan are of one voice over their claims to the disputed islands against Japan.

At such a critical time, the U.S. chooses to remain uninvolved and impartial toward the dispute. Consciously or unconsciously the U.S. action in 1972 and its inaction today have triggered a time bomb that will eventually lead China and Japan into war, resulting in hundreds if not thousands of lives being sacrificed. The situation is a direct result of a decision made by the U.S. political and military leaders some 42 years ago. Currently, all it takes is for the U.S. to look back at history to 1972 and boldly rectify its inaction by returning the disputed island to either the Chinese or the Taiwanese. That action would, perhaps, defuse the intense situation in the East China Sea today.

However, some observers suspect that the U.S. refusal to rectify the situation is due to its hidden agenda or scheme to capitalize on the disputes and cause disharmony between China and Japan and the rest of the Asian nations, in the hope that all these nations would feel threatened by a menacing China and engage in an arms race. These observers believed that the U.S. hopes more of these nations will turn to the U.S. to purchase weapons to protect themselves. And rightly so, Japan and some nations in South-East