Defeating the Islamic State Group: The Battle for Kobani
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Defeating the Islamic State Group - The Associated Press
Overview
It was a result that opponents had long hoped for.
The Kurdish recapture of the town of Kobani in northern Syria in January 2015 after a grueling four-month siege stands as the single worst defeat to date against the Islamic State group, the fearsome fanatical force that has seized vast swaths of Syria and Iraq.
Even more, the grinding air-and-ground campaign to retake Kobani may have provided its opponents a blueprint for defeating the Islamic State group in the future, by bringing together U.S. air power with an effective infantry force and protected routes for the movement of fighters and weaponry.
In early 2015, as Kurdish fighters expanded their offensive, buoyed by their success after months of fighting in Kobani near Syria's Turkish border, American officials were able to point at long last to a victory against the Islamic State. The victory put the extremists on the defensive, ending the Islamic State's rapid advance across much of Syria and Iraq in 2014.
Originally an afterthought for the U.S., the little town of Kobani instead has emerged as a potential turning point in the ongoing quest to contain and defeat the terrorist organization that seeks to re-create an Islamic caliphate in the Middle East by slaying Kurds, Christians, Shiites and all who fail to bend to their extremist aims.
It began in September 2014, Islamic State fighters captured about 300 Kurdish villages and hamlets near Kobani and then thrust into the town itself, occupying almost half of it and sending tens of thousands of residents fleeing into nearby Turkey. Unsure if Kobani would hold, U.S. officials including Secretary of State John Kerry spent weeks saying the town wasn't a priority.
But as Islamic State fighters poured north from the Syrian city of Raqqa, they exposed themselves to coalition air strikes. Humanitarian airdrops then started in late October, with Turkey helping Kurdish reinforcements enter Syria. And the lightly armed, U.S-allied Kurdish fighters themselves proved to be relentless and determined as IS to win back their now-devastated town -- house by house, building by building.
The Obama administration sees the defeat challenging one of the group's main draws for would-be foreign fighters from across the Muslim world and from the West: its self-projection as a triumphal movement rolling from victory to victory.
Introduction
(001) AP200458752271Fighters from the Islamic State group parade in Raqqa, north Syria. The Islamic State group may be sprouting tentacles across the region but it is struggling in Syria, part of its heartland, where it has stalled or even lost ground in fighting with multiple enemies on multiple fronts, June 30, 2014. (AP Photo/Raqqa Media Center of the Islamic State group, File)
Islamic State Group Not an Unstoppable Juggernaut
September 10, 2014
By Zeina Karam and Vivian Salama
The Islamic State group is often described as the most fearsome jihadi outfit of all: a global menace outweighing al-Qaida, with armies trembling before its advance.
But while the group has been successful at seizing parts of Iraq and Syria, it is no unstoppable juggernaut. Lacking the major weaponry of an established military, it wields outsize influence through the fanaticism of a hard core of several thousand, capitalizing on divisions among its rivals, and disseminating terrifying videos on social media.
President Barack Obama is outlining plans (September 10, 2014) for an expanded military and political effort to combat the group in Syria and Iraq, ushering in what is likely to be a long-term engagement by the U.S. and its allies to destroy the militants in those countries.
It is useful to remember, though, that while it is a formidable force that controls roughly a third of Iraq and Syria, there also has been an inclination to exaggerate the group's capabilities.
(002) AP817556148506Demonstrators chant pro-Islamic State group, slogans as they carry the group's flags in front of the provincial government headquarters in Mosul, 225 miles northwest of Baghdad, June 16, 2014. (AP Photo, File)
I think sometimes there's been a tendency to sort of overestimate the technical sophistication of the Islamic State,
said Charles Lister, visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center.
Lister, like many other analysts, said much of the power of the Islamic State group — also known by the acronyms ISIS or ISIL — lies in its centralization of command and intense loyalty within the organization.
That distinguishes the group from others, which are overstretched by years of conflict. In the case of the Syrian rebels, there are deep divisions that have hampered their cause.
Militants from the Islamic State group have waged an aggressive social media campaign. They have released statements with detailed information on conquests and battles, and posted high-quality videos that often provide visual proof of their activities in regions that have suffered a media vacuum recently as the risks have become too great for journalists.
In Syria, two American journalists were beheaded by the group. The killings, posted on militant websites, were shot in high definition, featured embedded sound bites from Obama, and used wireless microphones to amplify statements from the masked, English-speaking militant and his victims.
According to a senior Iraqi intelligence official, more than 27,600 Islamic State fighters are believed to be operating in Iraq, about 2,600 of whom are foreigners.
Most analysts, however, estimate the number of Islamic State fighters in both Iraq and Syria to be about 20,000.
(003) AP555281559460Islamic State group militants stand with a captured Iraqi army Humvee at a checkpoint outside Beiji refinery, 155 miless north of Baghdad, Iraq, June 19, 2014. (AP Photo, File)
In any case, the group is dwarfed by its foes in the Syrian and Iraqi armies — both in numbers and firepower.
The Iraqi military and police force are estimated at more than 1 million. The Syrian army is estimated at 300,000 soldiers. There are believed to be more than 100,000 Syrian rebels, including the al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front and the powerful Islamic Front rebel umbrella group, currently fighting the Islamic State group in Syria. Tens of thousands of Kurdish Peshmerga forces are fighting the group in Iraq.
The Islamic State group's greatest shortcoming is that it lacks effective means to fight airpower, meaning that U.S. airstrikes can go a long way in destroying its capabilities.
Still, the Islamic State group has amassed a significant amount of weapons and hardware captured from Iraqi and Syrian military installations in recent months.
(004) AP532581748403Militants from the Islamic State parade in a commandeered Iraqi security forces armored vehicle on a main street in Mosul, Iraq, June 23, 2014. (AP Photo, File)
The Iraqi official, who declined to be identified because he is not authorized to brief the media, told The Associated Press that the group's arsenal includes Kalashnikovs, machine guns, anti-aircraft guns and mortars, adding that they also have about 35 Iraqi military tanks, about 80 armored police vehicles and hundreds of Humvees.
In addition to those, the group earlier this year paraded in its Syrian stronghold of Raqqa what appeared to be a Scud missile, although it is unclear if the group has the capability to launch it.
Richard Brennan, an Iraq expert with RAND Corporation and a former U.S. Department of Defense policymaker, said the Islamic State group has captured 155mm howitzers — artillery weapons the Iraqi army commanded. It also captured some old Soviet-era tanks. They also seized some heavy weapons, including 50-caliber machine guns.
The group has a few MiG 21s captured when it overran the Syrian army's air base in Tabqa last month. Analysts say it is extremely unlikely that they could get any of them off the ground at this point.
It's a very nice thing for them to be able to show in the video. But for now, we're unlikely to see an Islamic State air force anytime soon, or even just one working jet,
Lister said.
Fighters of the Islamic State wave the group’s flag from a damaged display of a government fighter jet following the battle for the Tabqa air base, in Raqqa, Syria, August 27, 2014. (AP Photo/Raqqa Media Center of the Islamic State group, File)
A study released this week by the London-based Conflict Armament Research said Islamic State group fighters have also amassed weapons supplied by the U.S. and other allied countries, including anti-tank rockets, by overrunning stocks belonging to mainstream Syrian rebels.
Theodore Karasik, a security and political affairs analyst at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, estimated the Islamic State can claim about 20,000 core fighters, and up to 30,000, if allied Sunni tribesman are included.
Islamic State militants have shown the ability to operate commercially available drones, such as one that provided video over Islamic State group-occupied Fallujah.
Perhaps just as important as what the group has acquired is its technical know-how, according to Karasik.
The main fact is they are very smart and they probably read every manual that the U.S. has put out on air doctrine and special operations doctrine, so they know what's coming,
he said.
Among the group's most significant capabilities to emerge in the last six weeks or so, Lister said, has been the group's ability to deploy artillery.
The group has acquired M46 130mm field cannons from bases overrun recently in Syria's Raqqa province. These weapons add to the U.S. M198 howitzers the group captured in Iraq.
"Those are quite significant in terms of adding to