The Saudi Asteroid

By Bruce A. McDonald

In 2020, Russian president Yaakov Kozlov secretly intercepts and controls an asteroid named Apophis, planning to use it as a missile to impact Saudi Arabia’s
oil fields, thus strengthening his own nation’s profits in oil and gas exports. Russian astronomers at Moscow University become alarmed over the prospect of environmental damage if this asteroid impacts anywhere on the planet. Dr. Natalia Nijoka, one of the astronomers enlisted in Russia’s asteroid project, passes on her
concern to a friend working at the Israeli Embassy in Moscow.

Details of Kozlov’s project are communicated to James Duncan, head of the CIA. Natalia is subsequently recruited by the CIA to defect and assist U.S. scientists, working at the U.S.’s Jet Propulsion Labs in Pasadena, California, to counter Russia’s project. In order for Russia to hide its own action and involvement, Kozlov transferred its control site to an al Qaeda group in Yemen, leaving behind Russian technicians to maintain the asteroid’s trajectory. When the U.S. learns of this, a U.S. Delta Force captures the al Qaeda site in Yemen, along with its Russian technicians and the equipment used to control the trajectory of the asteroid.

This fiction novel is based on a very real threat to the planet which is now being reported. (See WSJ article from 10/1/2014.) The asteroid Apophis is supposed to miss Earth by just 19,000 miles in 2029, far closer than communication satellites now in orbit. If it were to hit the U.S., there would be no population on Earth unaffected by its impact.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Bruce A. McDonald
• Release date: Mar 24, 2015
• ISBN: 9781633184275

Bruce A. McDonald

The author’s first novel was inspired by his research on Near Earth Objects now threatening Earth. While attending MIT, he consulted for NASA on the Mariner 9 mission to Mars. His work on quantum electron tunneling in transistors, published in IEEE Electron Devices, led NASA engineers to seek his help in avoiding power failure during the Mariner 9 mission to Mars. This research work led to flash memory devices now used in all electronic devices today, from cell phones to memory sticks.

Book preview

Chapter 1

Natalia Nijoka, scientist in charge of asteroids likely to impact Earth, at Moscow University’s Astronomy Department, was walking across the campus with Annika Smirnov, Professor of Interstellar Objects. They were headed toward the lecture hall where Natalia would be giving a talk on the asteroid, Apophis, which now in 2020 was heading toward Earth at 30.7 kilometers per second and at a distance of millions of miles from Earth. In nine more years, Apophis was predicted to bypass Earth by just 19,000 miles, closer than orbital communication satellites now circling Earth. Highlighted in a Wall Street Journal article published in October, 2014, it was reprinted in Russia’s newspapers, garnering public interest in Russia as well as throughout the world.

Well I'm glad the astronomy department isn't facing the staff cutbacks that other departments are facing, Annika said.

Russia will get a lot of publicity when we launch the rocket carrying the tracking beacon which will land on Apophis in a few more years. President Kozlov will be bragging about Russia's ability to intercept an asteroid approaching Earth. I just hope Dmitri doesn't screw up the mission, Annika commented. Dmitri Ivanov was head of Roscomov, Russia’s space agency, which would be involved in positioning the beacon on Apophis.

Good luck with your talk to the apparatchiks, Natalia, Annika said as she departed for the astronomy center, leaving Natalia walking across the leaf-blown campus to the lecture hall where she would give her talk on Apophis. When Natalia arrived, she was greeted by Ludvig Solovyov, head of Moscow University's astronomy department.

Good morning Natalia! You all prepared for your talk to our government dignitaries? Ludvig asked.

Yes. But I'm not sure they'll follow what I have to say, Natalia answered.

That’s O.K. In attendance will be Yuri Lebedev, Deputy Prime Minister for Energy, Dmitri Ivanov, Chief of Roscomov, along with several professors and faculty members here at Moscow University along with several other government officials. Near-earth asteroids are a popular topic now among Russia’s government officials these days, as well as with the Russian public. Speculation that asteroids might be threats to the planet if they collide with Earth make lectures on Near Earth Objects, or NEOs as you call them, very popular!

Dr. Natalia Nijoka was the leading researcher on NEOs at the Institute of Astronomy at the Russian Academy of Sciences. Natalia was young for her position but had earned the respect of fellow scientists worldwide for her pioneering work in NEO research.

She and Ludvig entered the lecture hall and Ludvig went to the podium to introduce Natalia to her audience, already seated there. Natalia was dressed in a dark blue pants suit and sat near the podium. She thought about the lecture she was about to give on Apophis, and how it would be received by her audience. Since the audience was primarily non-technical, she would have to simplify her presentation, avoiding the techno-jargon given in most astronomy lectures. Nonetheless, any subject on asteroids should be of great interest to even a non-technical audience. The lecture hall was filled to capacity when Professor Solovyov introduced Natalia to the audience.

Ladies and gentlemen, distinguished guests and faculty members of Moscow University, I am pleased to welcome Doctor Natalia Nijoka, a distinguished scientist here at Moscow University, in charge of monitoring Near Earth Objects, or NEOs, as we refer to these space visitors. Natalia has had a distinguished career in identifying comets, asteroids and other Near Earth Objects, along with their trajectories as they travel through space. She has researched and published numerous papers on these visitors from outer space over the past ten years. She earned her doctorate degree in Physics and Astronomy from the University of California at Berkeley, located near San Francisco, California. Her topic today will be a large asteroid, called Apophis, which is now approaching Earth. Please welcome Natalia.

The audience applauded as Natalia went to the podium.

Thank you Professor Solovyov, and all of you attending here today. My presentation today will describe the potential threat that an approaching asteroid, called Apophis, might pose to Earth. While this asteroid does not appear to be a threat to Earth now, any slight change in its trajectory could be devastating to our planet in the near future.

Apophis was discovered on June 19, 2004, by astronomers working at the Kitt Peak Observatory, near Tucson, Arizona, in the United States. Even though it was observed for two nights in a row, astronomers there were unable to estimate its orbit and subsequently lost sight of it. On December 18, however, it was rediscovered by astronomers working in Australia and then located again by the U.S. Space Watch program. Radar observations taken at the Arecibo Observatory, located in Puerto Rico, showed that Apophis will pass closer than nineteen thousand miles from the Earth’s surface in 2029, far closer than any asteroid seen to date.

Natalia projected on the screen behind her a diagram of the asteroid's current position and its forecasted orbit, showing its path crossing Earth in 2029.

As this slide shows, Apophis will miss Earth by just 19,000 miles in 2029, much closer to Earth than the Moon!

Apophis is a 325 meter asteroid with a mass of forty billion kilograms and is traveling toward Earth with a velocity of more than 30 kilometers per second. If it impacted Earth, it would release the energy of more than 400 hydrogen bombs, creating a crater three miles in diameter and capable of destroying France if it impacted there. The audience’s attention became palpable.

A potential collision with Earth, later in 2036, will occur if Apophis, during its 2029 Earth flyby, passes through a 610 meter region in space that allows the gravitational effects of Earth to modify its orbit enough to impact Earth exactly seven years later. This region of space, termed a ‘keyhole’, will permit Apophis to strike Earth in 2036. The next slide showed Apophis passing through this keyhole above Earth. Natalia had the audience sitting on the edges of their seats now.

If a collision with Earth is predicted, there are several options to deflect its trajectory, which have been proposed both here in Russia and in America, as well as elsewhere in scientific research centers throughout the world.

The popular myth that an asteroid such as Apophis can be destroyed and made harmless by exploding a nuclear weapon on or near it runs the risk that such an explosion will only fragment the asteroid, producing multiple radioactive projectiles, each of which might impact Earth.

The next slides showed the asteroid fragmenting from a nuclear blast, with the resulting asteroid segments falling towards Earth.

Several, non-destructive alternatives have been studied so far and offer greater protection for our planet. All of these alternatives only become necessary if Apophis should change course from its current trajectory. As of now, it appears that Apophis will bypass Earth in 2029 and has only a miniscule chance of passing through this keyhole in space above Earth.

Are there any questions before I continue? Natalia asked the audience.

Dmitri Ivanov asked, Could some country take control of Apophis and utilize it as a weapon?

While this is theoretically possible, very few countries possess the required technology to do so. Besides, retaliation by countries affected by its impact would discourage any rational country from doing this. Natalia responded.

Dmitri then asked, How is the path of the asteroid being tracked?

We are currently using conventional telescopes, at observatories here in Russia as well as observatories worldwide, to track Apophis and predict its path as it approaches Earth.

Dmitri then suggested, You might mention that we are planning to put a tracking beacon on Apophis to more accurately predict its approach to Earth. Can you elaborate on this?

Yes. We are designing a robotic assembly for installing a radio beacon on Apophis to permit more accurate tracking of this asteroid. This robotic assembly will be carried to Apophis using one of our Proton rockets, once the design and construction of the robotic system is completed. We anticipate that it will be ready for launch in about two months from now. After launch, the rocket carrying the tracking beacon should reach Apophis within a few months. Natalia replied.

Natalia continued her lecture, describing how Apophis differed from previous asteroids, its composition and other facts about asteroids in general. When her allotted presentation time was over, Natalia thanked her audience.

Dr. Solovyov then retook the podium.

If there are no further questions, I want to thank Doctor Nijoka for her informative discussion of the asteroid Apophis. I hope all of you attend our next meeting, when Doctor Dmitri Ivanov will present the status of our space program to install a tracking beacon on Apophis.

The audience applauded as Natalia left the stage. Several attendees intercepted her with questions about Apophis as she walked off the stage toward the exit door. She deflected their questions adroitly, suggesting that they peruse the University's news web site where she posts updates on her work.

Dmitri sought out Yuri Lebedev as he was leaving the lecture hall. Yuri Lebedev was Deputy Prime Minister for Energy. Dmitri thought Yuri might be intrigued in using Apophis to improve Russia’s competitive position in world energy exports, now declining dramatically. He intercepted Yuri on his way toward the exit door.

Yuri, I think this asteroid has great potential for reshaping Russia's position in world energy exports. What if this asteroid struck the oil fields of the Middle East? Russia would suddenly control a third of the world's oil and gas supplies! Just think about this opportunity!

Yuri didn't know what to make of Dmitri's comment but thought about it as he returned to his office.

Chapter 2

The next day, Yuri Lebedev left his apartment at Vodniy Stadium for the five minute walk to the Metro for his 9 AM meeting with Yaakov Kozlov, the President of Russia. Yuri wondered what the agenda was and who else might attend the meeting at the Kremlin. Any meeting called without a stated agenda was unusual and portended an ominous outcome.

Russia’s energy sector was dominated by a few oligarchs who ran Russia’s oil and gas production, 80% of which was exported to sustain the Russian economy. Declining oil and gas exports from Russia, due to intense new competition from fracking and offshore drilling by the U.S., Europe and several other non-OPEC countries, preoccupied his thoughts on his Metro trip to the Kremlin. He worried that that the meeting might become confrontational.

Russia in 2020 was in a politically unstable condition with public resentment growing over its autocratic, non-democratic style of government, soaring inflation and unemployment. Agitators for an open democracy were rising in popularity and any decline in social subsidies, as a result of Russia’s declining economy, could push Russia over the political edge. Erosion of Russia’s energy export economy would increase the possibility of political upheaval, possibly resulting in the elimination of lucrative key government posts, such as Yuri’s.

'What in hell could this meeting be about?' is all that Yuri could ask himself as he approached Cathedral Square, the heart of the Kremlin. As Yuri passed the great bell tower on the northeast corner of the Square, he wondered if the meeting would begin with the ringing of its bells, heralding the collapse of Russia as a world power. Yuri recalled the succession of dictators ruling Russia, starting in the 1930s with Stalin and culminating today with Russia's new president, Yaakov Kozlov.

Like Stalin long before him, Kozlov wouldn't hesitate to exile or kill anyone suspected of opposing his rule. The dissolution of the Soviet empire, under Mikhail Gorbachev in 1989, held the promise that the new Russia would become democratic. But the Russian penchant for tyrants ruling with an iron hand led to a succession of incompetent leaders, culminating in Kozlov assuming power in 2018.

Just as Yuri approached the Kremlin, the fluttering sounds of the Soviet Mi-8 helicopter landing on the Kremlin helipad caused him to look up. The helipad was completed in 2013 by Vladimir Putin in order to stop disruptions in Moscow traffic caused by traditional presidential motorcades. Perhaps the sound of Koslov’s helicopter landing at the Kremlin helipad augured the descent of Russia into a post-energy era.

The ghost of Stalin seemed to permeate the Kremlin's corridors as Yuri searched for the meeting room. As he entered the elaborately decorated conference room, he was greeted by Andrei Sokolov, Head of Gazprom, Russia’s major exporter of gas to Europe and Asia; by Pavel Novikov, Head of Lukoil, Russia’s second largest producer of oil, and by Victor Morozov, Head of Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company.

They all had arrived prior to President Kozlov but none had been notified as to the subject matter to be discussed. They all surmised that the meeting would focus on Russia’s declining production and exports of oil and gas. Before they could begin speculating, President Kozlov entered the room and stood at the head of the conference table.

Yaakov Kozlov was a giant of a man, at six-foot-four, with thick eyebrows and massive features. He was an alumnus of the KGB, which morphed into Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), and he had no compunctions about using the FSB to eliminate competitors or threats. It was rumored that he had personally executed two opponents using his bare hands.

The reason I called all of you to this meeting is to go over our decline in both production as well as exports of gas and oil. As you all know, Russia is almost totally dependent on energy production and export for its economic survival. While we export weapons and other products worldwide, it is gas and oil that drives our economy. High-tech industries like nuclear power generation can’t compensate for recent declines in our energy exports. Starting in 1999, our economy grew for eight straight years, with GDP increasing six-fold. A significant reason for this was the five-fold increase in the world price of oil and gas, permitting our country to become an energy superpower.

"In 2010, our oil production was 500 million tons, declining to 450 million tons in 2015, 380 in 2020 and forecasted to decline to 250 million tons by 2035. Even The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia has had to slash economic forecasts for the next two decades, warning that Russia's oil-fueled growth is over and nothing is likely to take its place, given Russia's poor investment climate and aging infrastructure."

Russian gas is now more expensive than gas produced in the U.S. from fracking technology. Russia now needs an even higher price to rebuild its gas and oil infrastructure. The days of Russia dominating European gas markets are gone. While Russia exports gas to Europe for $10 per unit, the current price in the U.S. is now $3! Even Poland has discovered new deposits, estimated at 100 billion cubic meters of gas! Recent studies show that deposits of gas and oil in the Netherlands and Britain’s North Sea are comparable to Poland’s.

Kozlov concluded by saying, What I want to know from you overpaid bureaucrats is what we can do to reverse this trend.

Andrey Sokolov, surprised by Kozlov’s articulate presentation of Russia’s oil and gas export market decline, responded by saying, Our joint pipeline development with China for Siberian gas development will provide low cost gas to compensate for our current declines in production and export, Mr. President. China’s desperate need for clean energy to replace their coal-fired pollution will prompt China to invest whatever is necessary in Russia to tap our reserves of gas and oil. Gas can replace the massive amounts of coal burned by China’s power plants and help eliminate the smog problem China faces in their urban industrial cities.

Kozlov smirked and replied, That may be true Andrey but we all know the Chinese: put up a ruble but take three as repayment! We’ll wind up being a debtor to China like the U.S. What we need now are new solutions, or as the Americans say, ‘Thinking Outside the Box’. Russia’s economic outlook is declining and we need new ideas. Pavel and Victor, what are your thoughts?

Pavel Novikov, Head of Lukoil, and Victor Morozov, Head of Rosneft, both of which companies were Russia’s largest oil producers, stammered their suggestions.

Mr. President, we think that the easiest solution is to limit the supply of energy sources outside of Russia, Victor suggested. We can do this by funding environmental groups opposed to fracking or by taking a more direct approach, such as minimizing OPEC as a competitor.

Intrigued, Kozlov replied, Great! What do you suggest? Nuke OPEC? We can’t blockade or attack a U.S. and world ally since they would retaliate in return. Yuri, what do you suggest?

Yuri, desperate to come up with some response and recalling Dmitri's comment about using Apophis as a weapon to destroy Middle East oil fields, suggested, What if a natural disaster should cripple OPEC’s ability to produce oil and gas?

What do you suggest Yuri? Do you think we can engineer an earthquake in the Middle East? I think that this is beyond our capabilities at the moment. Kozlov dismissively replied.

Mr. President, Yuri continued, have you heard of an asteroid called ‘Apophis’, a large asteroid which is expected to pass by earth within only a few thousand miles in 2029? If it hit Earth, Apophis would impact the planet with megatons of energy, greater than the 57 megatons Russia exploded with our Tsar Bomb during the Cold War. Apophis would create a thousand kilometer wide impact crater, more than sufficient to eliminate Saudi Arabia's oil fields. The resulting destruction of OPEC’s largest member would reduce the world’s supply of oil and gas by over thirty percent and increase the price of Russian oil and gas by a factor of two to three times current world prices.

Kozlov was astounded by this suggestion. Knowing only very little about the Apophis asteroid, he now wanted to learn more.

Yuri, now you have given me an example of ‘Thinking Outside the Box’. What an interesting idea, but how do we get this asteroid to hit only Saudi Arabia and not cause Armageddon? But I’ll ask our scientists to examine the possibilities. If we could eliminate Saudi Arabia as a production source, we would triple profits for our exports of oil and gas and get rid of the fucking Arabs at the same time! If this scheme could work, Yuri, I can’t believe you came up with this!

Thank you, Mr. President. I’ve been an avid amateur astronomer for years and thought this might be an opportunity windfall if we could get this asteroid to land in the right place.

Having gotten Kozlov’s focus away from Russia's production problems, they all felt relieved over being dismissed without having their heads chopped off.

Chapter 3

Kozlov returned to his office after the meeting, thinking about the possibilities of destroying Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas production using a natural disaster like an asteroid from outer space. 'If Russia could covertly manage this, then he, President Kozlov, would have single-handedly turned Russia’s economic fortunes around!' Kozlov thought to himself.

The more he thought about it, the more exited he became. ‘What a coup!’ as he called Katia, his personal secretary, Kozlov told her to get him the names of Russian scientists familiar with astronomy and space technologies.

He realized that an open discussion of this strategy would have to be limited to a very few, trusted individuals who could advise him on the technical feasibility of the project. Any leaks about this project to the outside world would derail the project before it even started. Safeguards for security would have to be established before opening any discussions with Russia’s technical advisors, or anyone else for that matter.

Sergei Popov, head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), would have to be involved from the outset to guarantee security, for even an evaluation of the project. Sergei was a KGB veteran whom Kozlov considered a friend and confidant. Sergei would have to make sure that no leaks occurred.

Katia, ask Sergei to come to my office, now. Kuzlov bellowed from his office.

What should I tell him when he asks what this is about?

Just tell him to come over here now! Kuzlov yelled.

Within minutes, Katia told Kozlov that Sergei had arrived. Katia, who had been Kozlov's personal assistant since coming to office, was also terrified of Sergei, who had a reputation for making dissidents disappear. He was a small man in stature but made up for this by instilling terror in anyone who knew him. Loyal to a fault, Kozlov knew that Sergei could instill total obedience to secrecy in anyone told to keep his or her mouth shut on any topic under discussion. Kozlov and Sergei were referred to as Russia's equivalent of Mutt and Jeff, behind their backs of course, by staff members who had contact with them.

When Katia announced Sergei's arrival, Kozlov bounded out of his office to greet him.

Come in Sergei, how are things going at the FSB? Kozlov inquired rhetorically.

Katia, can you bring us two coffees?

Sergei, not knowing why he had been summoned at such short notice, was apprehensive as to the reason. ‘Something is up, that’s for certain!’ Sergei thought but was afraid to ask.

Sergei, what I’m about to discuss with you can’t leave this room. We may embark on a project which, if successful, will transform our economy beyond belief. This project will reverse our current economic decline and make Russia the most profitable country in the world. If unsuccessful, both of us will be thrown out of office and disgraced. Do I have your attention, Sergei?

It crossed Sergei's mind that Kozlov might be having a delusional moment but he knew that he had to play along.

This project must be new! Please tell me about it, Sergei replied, hiding his concern over Kozlov’s mental stability.

When Kozlov finished explaining the strategy, Sergei was dubious about the chances for success but alarmed over what a disaster this would be if word got out about what Russia was considering. He agreed with Kozlov that security was paramount but containing word of this project would be a nightmare.

Yaakov, each individual we talk to about this has to be warned of the consequences if they speak about this to anyone. The consequences have to be severe enough that no one will breathe a word of this to the outside. Sergei said.

That’s your job, Sergei! I want you to advise anyone I plan to speak with about the need for secrecy and their punishment if they mention this to anyone not directly involved.

Sergei responded, I’ll need a list of anyone you plan to discuss this with, in advance.

Chapter 4

Annika and Natalia walked along the Moksha River for their meeting with Sergei and other scientists at the Kremlin, which meeting had been called without any prior notice.

Sergei had assembled Russia’s premier astronomers and space technology scientists in the Kremlin conference room. He then explained the strategy President Kozlov was considering for using an asteroid, called Apophis, to eliminate the oil and gas production of Saudi Arabia in order to increase global oil and gas prices for the benefit of Russia.

As you may already know, Russia’s position as a major exporter of oil and gas has been declining for the past decade and now faces new competition from countries such as America and other countries, due to fracking and other developments since 2012. The political stability of Russia now depends on reversing Russia’s decline as a major supplier of these exports.

This project, approved by President Kozlov, is to use an asteroid, named Apophis, to destroy the oil fields of Saudi Arabia. To do this, Russia will need the cooperation of its best astronomers and space experts, all of you present here. Each of you has been selected to assist in an effort to evaluate this strategy. As you may surmise, any exposure of this new program to outsiders will be disastrous for Russia and prevent its implementation.

"President Kozlov will meet with all of you tomorrow to discuss this in greater detail. Each of you involved in this project needs to appreciate that secrecy is paramount. In order to insure secrecy, the FSB will be watching your movements, monitoring your cell phones and observing any meetings you hold. Any disclosure to outsiders of what was said here, or described in this project,