Nuclear Security: The Problems and the Road Ahead
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George P. Shultz
George P. Shultz was an economist, diplomat, and businessman. Shultz held various positions in the U.S. Government, working under the Nixon, Reagan, and Eisenhower administrations. He studied at Princeton University and MIT, where he earned his Ph.D., and served in the United States Marine Corp during World War II. Shultz passed away in February of 2021 at the age of 100.
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Nuclear Security - George P. Shultz
Nuclear Security
The Hoover Institution gratefully acknowledges the following individuals and foundations for their significant support of this publication and the conference on which this book is based:
THOMAS AND BARBARA STEPHENSON
THE WILLIAM AND FLORA HEWLETT FOUNDATION
PRESTON AND CAROLYN BUTCHER
JOHN AND ANN DOERR
THE KORET FOUNDATION
THE MARY JO AND DICK KOVACEVICH FAMILY FOUNDATION
WILLIAM AND SUSAN OBERNDORF
PAUL AND SANDRA OTELLINI
THE THOMAS AND STACEY SIEBEL FOUNDATION
George P. Shultz
Sidney D. Drell
Henry A. Kissinger
Sam Nunn
H O O V E R I N S T I T U T I O N P R E S S
STANFORD UNIVERSITY STANFORD, CALIFORNIA
The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, founded at Stanford University in 1919 by Herbert Hoover, who went on to become the thirty-first president of the United States, is an interdisciplinary research center for advanced study on domestic and international affairs. The views expressed in its publications are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, officers, or Board of Overseers of the Hoover Institution.
www.hoover.org
Hoover Institution Press Publication No. 654
Hoover Institution at Leland Stanford Junior University,
Stanford, California 94305-6010
Copyright © 2014 by the Board of Trustees of the
Leland Stanford Junior University
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without written permission of the publisher and copyright holders.
For permission to reuse material from Nuclear Security: The Problems and the Road Ahead, ISBN 978-0-8179-1805-7, please access www.copyright.com or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of uses.
Efforts have been made to locate the original sources, determine the current rights holders, and, if needed, obtain reproduction permissions. On verification of any such claims to rights in the articles reproduced in this book, any required corrections or clarifications will be made in subsequent printings/editions.
First printing 2014
Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN: 978-0-8179-1805-7 (pbk. : alk. paper)
ISBN: 978-0-8179-1806-4 (epub)
ISBN: 978-0-8179-1807-1 (mobi)
ISBN: 978-0-8179-1808-8 (PDF)
Contents
Preface
1 Reducing the Nuclear Threat: Lessons from Experience
2 Challenges to Maintaining Trust in the Safety and Security of the Nuclear Enterprise
3 Nuclear Risk: The Race between Cooperation and Catastrophe
4 The Gipper’s Guide to Negotiating
5 What a Final Iran Deal Must Do
6 Is it Illogical to Work toward a World without Nuclear Weapons?
Final Thoughts
About the Authors
Index
Preface
George P. Shultz
Sid Drell, Sam Nunn, and I were invited to address the annual meeting of the American Nuclear Society in November 2013. This important organization of some 11,000 has worked constructively over the years on issues related to the use of nuclear-supplied energy. We were asked to speak about our long-standing interest in getting better control of the threats posed by nuclear weapons and reactors. Each of our papers addressed this issue in a different way. Sid Drell’s paper is supplemented here by another paper he recently presented at Princeton’s Institute for Advanced Studies. My paper is supplemented by two recent opinion pieces involving Iran, one coauthored by Henry Kissinger.
All three of us have been involved in nuclear security efforts for many years. Sid Drell, a physicist, has been a constructive force in arms control discussions, contributing his scientific expertise to understanding the true nature of the challenges involved and presenting ideas for how to deal effectively with them. My role began when I was President Reagan’s secretary of state in the 1980s. During that period, we worked hard to reduce the number of nuclear weapons and we succeeded. Today, the number of nuclear weapons is on the order of 30 percent of their peak level in 1986. Sam Nunn, as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, worked with Senator Richard Lugar to produce the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program that has made significant contributions to the security of the Soviet Union’s, and now Russia’s, nuclear stockpile and its orderly reduction. He now leads the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) in its effective work on nuclear issues.
We all believe that further progress is urgently needed and that there are current initiatives that deserve strong support. An outstanding example is the series of meetings initiated by President Obama that brings together heads of state to focus on getting better control of fissile material. This effort is of critical importance because obtaining fissile material is the most difficult challenge to building a bomb. Progress is being made on other aspects of nuclear security, and consciousness of the problem is very much in the air. For example, under the leadership of Sam Nunn and the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a recent meeting in Singapore brought together established networks of knowledgeable people from Europe, Latin America, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region who are working on nuclear security.
Our efforts to advance these issues will continue because, while the likelihood that a nuclear weapon will be used is low, the consequences of a single nuclear incident are enormous.