Are US-China ties in 'challenging environment' the biggest test for Singapore's next PM Lawrence Wong?

Singapore's incoming prime minister Lawrence Wong faces an unprecedented challenge amid geopolitical headwinds that may threaten his adherence to a delicate balancing act that has defined the city state's foreign policy, analysts say.

Wong, currently deputy prime minister, shed light on his governance style in an interview with The Economist on Monday, reaffirming a "pro-Singapore" approach that was neither "pro-China" nor "pro-US".

On US-China ties, Wong said there were many "possibilities for things to go wrong, for tensions to flare up".

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"It will require very careful management of the relationship. Because if things were to deteriorate sharply, it'd be costly for both the US and China and for the rest of the world."

Analysts say navigating such a relationship will be the biggest test for Wong, as the tiny state finds its place in a volatile region increasingly influenced by bigger powers.

Wong asserted that Singapore was not an ally of the US, explaining the two countries' close military links as a mere feature of their defence relationship as major security cooperation partners.

Beijing viewed the US as trying to "encircle, and suppress them, and trying to deny them their rightful place in the world", he said.

He said China sees itself as a "strong" country whose "time has come" and that it hopes to be "more assertive in national interest, including national interest overseas", noting that Beijing would face backlash if it "pushes its way around other countries and overdoes it".

On May 15, he will be sworn in as the city state's fourth prime minister since independence. He takes over from Lee Hsien Loong, the elder son of founding father Lee Kuan Yew.

Observers note that Wong's foreign policy rhetoric centres on maintaining the principles of the ruling People's Action Party since its rise to power in 1965, prioritising stability, enhancing military capabilities, and economic growth.

"[Wong's] views were a restatement of long-standing government policy on foreign relations ... that Singapore pursues its foreign policy principally on the basis of its own interest ... striving not to be neutral but independent," said Donald Low, professor of public policy at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

But sooner or later, Wong may be pushed to define what his pro-Singapore stance would look like in "practical terms", said Chong Ja Ian, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

"The environment for Singapore is more challenging than ever before," he said.

"It seems somewhat strange that the approach is to do things as they have been done before because in a new geopolitical environment, you would adapt, change and update rather than to just stick with what you're familiar with."

The most critical geopolitical flashpoints in the region revolve around the possibility of military conflicts in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait - issues that Wong noted could have a large economic impact on the small city state, as well as an emotional toll on its majority-ethnic Chinese population.

Wong said Singapore would uphold its One China policy.

"We are very careful when we conduct relationships with both [mainland] China and Taiwan, that it's consistent with our One China policy," Wong said, noting that if all parties in the conflict understand the risks and the red lines, that if any change happens, it is done in a way that is "peaceful and non-forcible".

Analysts say Singapore's unwavering stance is a way of insulating itself from internal and external pressures.

"Increasingly there is public scrutiny, which used to be stronger in relation to domestic policies ... we are also now seeing this in foreign policy because the population is more attuned to issues of ethics and human rights," said Low, pointing to the example of the Israel-Gaza war that Wong said has resonated with many Singaporeans.

Regional pressures also revolve around tensions in the South China Sea, particularly as Singapore's neighbours in the 10-member Asean face strained relations with Beijing over overlapping claims in the resource-rich waterway.

The Philippines has been at odds with China, and according to Chong, has turned closer to the US because of a lack of support from its Asean neighbours.

"For Singapore, that is very dependent on established rules in its policy interactions with greater powers ... what it intends to put on the line to ensure that these disputes are handled in non-coercive ways is not really known," he said.

But analyst Low argues that Singapore is aware that it has "limited influence" over Asean.

"Every country has the right to pursue its policies according to its own interests, even those countries that lean more towards China," he said.

"The idea that Asean should have a common position ... goes against the grain of how Asean has developed historically."

Low expects Singapore to continue its long-standing "non-aligned" policy, saying that while a great-power conflict may impact how Singapore operates, countries still have a "great deal of agency and don't have to choose sides".

Singapore might find itself in a tricky position if Southeast Asia becomes an arena for competition among major powers, Chong says, particularly if Asean fails to present a unified front.

"Where [Singapore] might stand in a region that is less coordinated and less effective in being able to collectively bargain or push back against major powers remains a question.

"Singapore will need to be prepared for dealing with a lot more pressure, whether this is political or in terms of economic coercion," he said.

"These are the things that Singapore needs to show it is prepared for psychologically, but I've not seen much movement in that direction as yet."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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