With BrahMos missile delivery to Philippines, India sets out its arms stall for Southeast Asia

India has delivered its first batch of supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines, marking a significant step forward for New Delhi's bid to counterbalance growing Chinese influence in Southeast Asia.

The arms deal is seen by observers as part of India's wider goal to establish itself as a security partner for the region, with the export of missiles timed to coincide with the country's ongoing election to highlight the ruling party's vow to boost defence infrastructure.

On Friday last week, India delivered the BrahMos missiles to the Philippines under a US$375 million deal signed in 2022. Reports indicate Manila intends to deploy the weapons along the country's amid rising tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea.

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Walter Ladwig, a senior international-relations lecturer at King's College London, called the missile sale a "very interesting development" given India's traditional lack of a strong relationship with the Philippines.

"This is part of a clear push by India to expand its defence cooperation with Southeast Asian countries beyond its usual partners, Vietnam and Singapore," Ladwig, whose academic research focuses on geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific and Indian foreign and defence policy, told This Week in Asia.

India's defence exports hit a record 210.8 billion rupees (US$2.5 billion) last financial year, up more than 32 per cent from 2022-23, with the Philippines' BrahMos missiles accounting for the largest slice of the export pie. Delhi wants to export 350 billion rupees worth of arms and weaponry this financial year.

Ladwig characterised the arms deal with Manila as a continuation of Delhi's existing policies, in some respects.

"India has provided assistance and training to Vietnam to help develop their fighter capabilities and repeatedly offered to assist with their Kilo submarine programme, all of which would be key assets for defending disputed territory from Chinese encroachment," he said.

BrahMos cruise missiles are manufactured by Indo-Russian multinational defence company BrahMos Aerospace and can travel at a speed of 2.8 Mach - almost triple the speed of sound.

For the Philippines, acquiring the missiles is viewed as a significant step in deterring China's increasing military presence and activities in the South China Sea.

"If India sells weapon systems to countries to help them defend from Chinese aggression, [and it] affects the bilateral relationship with China, that is on Beijing," Ladwig said.

"For the last three decades China has been [Delhi's arch-rival] Pakistan's primary military patron, providing advanced conventional weapons, such as fourth-generation fighter aircraft, modern armour, artillery and other assets that affect the conventional military balance in South Asia."

In addition to Manila and Beijing, which claims the South China Sea almost in its entirety, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan also lay to parts of the disputed waterway.

Increasingly frequent confrontations between Beijing and Manila in the South China Sea in recent years have prompted the United States and Japan to pledge their support for the Philippines in the dispute.

Premesha Saha, a fellow with the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank's strategic studies programme, said India's sale of BrahMos to the Philippines was a step towards the South Asian nation emerging as a strategic and security player for Southeast Asia, and by extension the Indo-Pacific.

India has reportedly also been in talks with Indonesia and Vietnam, both of which have maritime disputes with China, to sell them BrahMos missiles.

Last year, India and the Philippines enhanced their defence partnership, with Delhi opening a resident defence attache office in Manila and offering a concessional line of credit to the Philippine government for defence equipment purchases.

Last month, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar expressed support for the Philippines in upholding its sovereignty during a meeting with counterpart Enrique Manalo in Manila. The two countries also discussed cooperation in defence and security.

Saha said India would need to enter into similar weapons deals with other countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam in future to truly be seen as a credible strategic player in the region.

"This region [Southeast Asia] is pivotal for India in terms of its ambitions in the Indo- Pacific and also to be seen as a leading voice in the Global South," said Saha, whose research focuses on Southeast Asia, East Asia, Oceania and the emerging dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region.

Under its "Act East" policy, India has been strengthening military ties with Asean member states through combat exercises, exchanges, training programmes, and increased weapon supplies.

Yet The State of Southeast Asia 2024 survey published by Singapore's ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute this month found a majority of respondents ranking India as one of the least strategically relevant partners of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations - only Canada and New Zealand ranked lower - while China was seen as the region's most influential economic, political and strategic power.

Saha said the sale of BrahMos missile to the Philippines "has to be seen beyond the fact of just containing China. The aim is for India to start taking steps to be seen as a credible security and strategic partner in Southeast Asia," she said.

India has been actively pursuing self-reliance and a localisation strategy for manufacturing, including in defence, former Indian diplomat Anil Trigunayat said.

"Supplying its finest BrahMos missiles to friendly countries like the Philippines is natural in that sense and in the context of evolving security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific as perceived by Manila," he said, calling "Made-in-India for the world" and reaching a target of US$5 billion in defence exports Delhi's "mantra".

Trigunayat said that while China's feathers might get ruffled, there was little India could do except pursue its own national interests.

"China and the Philippines have their own problem-and-sovereignty matrix which has forced Manila to beef up its defences, including its security partnership with the US," said Trigunayat, who is also a fellow with the Vivekananda International Foundation think tank. "Unfortunately China's hegemonic actions in the region continue to [disturb] its neighbours more often than not."

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the delivery of the BrahMos missiles on Friday at an election rally in Damoh, Madhya Pradesh, where he congratulated the people of India for the achievement.

India-China relations are currently at a very low ebb, Trigunayat said, "[but] Modi recently reiterated that the relationship with China is important and significant, and the two sides need to urgently address the prolonged situation on our borders so that the abnormality of our relations can be put behind us."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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