OPINION - All models are wrong (except the Office for Budget Responsibility's Brexit forecasts)
by Jack Kessler
Mar 14, 2024
2 minutes
"All models," the British statistician George Box observed, "are wrong, but some are useful." To which we now turn to the Office for Budget Responsibility, whose Brexit forecasts seem to be holding up remarkably well.
Hidden within its 168-page report following the Budget, the fiscal watchdog noted that its long-term assumptions about the negative impact of Brexit on the UK economy . That is, a 15 per cent drop in
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