Can India mend fences with the Maldives amid its troop withdrawal and China's gambit to gain clout?
India should seek to mend its frayed relations with the Maldives amid an ongoing withdrawal of its troops from the archipelagic state as ordered by Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu.
Analysts say it would be counterproductive for India to reassert itself in the Maldives as this would only incite more anti-Indian sentiment.
Local media reported on Tuesday that 25 Indian soldiers deployed in the Maldives' southernmost atoll of Addu had left out of around 90 stationed in the country. The move comes within days of Muizzu - seen by analysts as pro-China - signing a "military assistance" pact with Beijing this month.
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India has agreed to a complete withdrawal of troops and support staff from the Maldives by May 10 following talks between both countries.
Three Indian aircraft operated by Indian civilian staff will be stationed on the island to help with rescue and relief operations as and when they are needed in the remote islands.
"India has the advantage of geographical proximity, whether it is Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan or the Maldives," said Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
"It must develop better instruments of inducement so that it is clear why it will be good [for its neighbours] to go with India."
During the Maldivian presidential election last year, Muizzu campaigned to remove the nation's long-standing "India First" policy. Muizzu defeated his predecessor Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, whom he accused of allowing India to hold sway over the Maldives.
Relations between India and the Maldives have steadily deteriorated since and hit rock bottom earlier this year when droves of Indian tourists started cancelling visits to the country following disparaging social media posts by Maldivian leaders about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Maldivian ministers Malsha Shareef, Mariyam Shiuna and Abdulla Mahzoom Majid had called Modi a "clown", "terrorist" and "puppet of Israel", respectively, over India's support of Israel in the Israel-Gaza war and were suspended from their positions.
Muizzu's demand for the withdrawal of Indian troops had further aggravated bilateral tensions.
New Delhi considers the Indian Ocean archipelago to be within its sphere of influence, with the Maldives situated along key shipping routes.
China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean and its influence in the Maldives as well as in neighbouring Sri Lanka have stoked India's suspicions about the security threat posed by Beijing.
Analysts say India's ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party has provoked suspicions in Muslim-majority Maldives.
"Modi's radicalisation of Indian religious politics is bound to be viewed dimly by the Maldives, a country where non-Muslims are prohibited from becoming citizens," said Sweden-based Matias Otero Johansson, an independent political analyst.
Muizzu's "India out" campaign has played on local concerns that India's military presence undermined Maldivian sovereignty, he added.
"In seeking to balance Indian and US influence, China is a natural counterbalancing force which has long attempted to extend its influence along critical maritime trade routes that supply the PRC with resources," Johansson said.
"It is in this sense a timely opportunism by Beijing given the fallout of the India-Maldives relationship."
India's 90 security personnel stationed in the Maldives had been mostly involved in rescue and relief operations.
However, their presence became the lightning rod for the country to downgrade ties with India and draw closer to China.
"There is hardly anything to suggest that the Modi government has not been supportive of the Maldives," said Harsh Pant, an international relations professor at King's College London.
"The Maldives President has complained about Indian troops' minimal presence undermining sovereignty but has had no compunctions about signing an opaque defence pact with China," he added.
"It seems Muizzu has taken a cue from China and that is why many Maldivians are worried about it."
The Maldives' opposition is led by the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which was in power previously under Solih and had maintained strong ties with India.
MDP and other opposition parties recently issued a joint statement to criticise the ruling Progressive Party of Maldives' anti-India stance.
Muizzu's pro-China stance, however, could hurt the Maldives' ties with the US and UK since India is seen as a Western ally, according to Pant.
For now, it is difficult to assess the impact on China's strategic interests in the region from the fallout between India and the Maldives.
"It's too early to say yet if the defence agreement [with China] will introduce changes of substance to the security environment, namely if China will be allowed to militarise Maldivian territory," Johansson said.
Such a development, however, would run contrary to Muizzu's election campaign against foreign influence, he added.
Given the evolving strategic situation, Delhi should therefore step up efforts to realign its priorities in the Maldives, according to Johansson.
"Above all India should extend an olive branch and attempt to mend trust with its neighbour, giving the Maldives the means to counterbalance China's influence."
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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