Will the latest Gaza war have far-reaching repercussions? As a rule, adverse geopolitical developments are usually balanced by countervailing forces of various kinds, and events in one small part of the world tend not to have vast ripple effects elsewhere. Crises and wars do occur, but cooler heads typically prevail and limit their consequences.
But not always, and the current Israel-Hamas conflict may be one of those exceptions. I don’t think we are on the brink of World War III; in fact, I’d be surprised if the fighting leads to a larger regional conflict. But even if the war is confined to Gaza, it is going to have significant repercussions around the world.
To see what these broader implications may be, it is important to recall the general state of geopolitics just before Oct. 7. Before Hamas attacked, the United States and its NATO allies were waging a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. Their goal was to help Ukraine drive Russia from the territory it had seized after February 2022 and
