Sri Lanka ban on Chinese ships a 'victory' for India, but shows limits of small states in big-power rivalry

The ban on Chinese ships in Sri Lanka's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is seen as a "victory" for India in the Indian Ocean but also highlights the limits of small states "in manoeuvring between major powers", analysts said.

The one-year moratorium also points to China's inability to leverage its investment in developing countries to serve its growing military ambition, experts added.

On December 31, Sri Lanka said it had informed India that it would not allow any Chinese research vessels to dock at its ports or operate within its EEZ for a year, the Hindustan Times reported.

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The move came after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Sri Lanka President Ranil Wickremesinghe during their meeting in July to respect New Delhi's strategic and security concerns.

This meant that Chinese scientific research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 3, which was scheduled to conduct deepwater exploration in the south Indian Ocean beginning this week, would not be given the clearance to do so.

India had earlier raised objections to Chinese research vessel Shi Yan 6, which had conducted a joint maritime survey in October to November with the Sri Lankan maritime agency.

Swaran Singh, international relations professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, said India - and also the United States - had often expressed displeasure to Sri Lanka on the increasing presence of Chinese combat and research vessels in the Indian Ocean, that occasionally anchor on Sri Lankan ports.

This one-year moratorium could be seen "as a noticeable victory for India", Singh said, but noted that the short duration meant China's growing maritime presence in the Indian Ocean would "continue to be a matter of concern" for Delhi.

Singh, who is also a member of the governing board at the Delhi-based Society of Indian Ocean Studies, said that given Sri Lanka's coming presidential election in April, "Colombo did not wish to trigger any tensions with its immediate neighbour".

Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow with the Australia-based Lowy Institute's Southeast Asia programme, said the development was significant as it reflected the limits of small countries "in manoeuvring between major powers", forcing them to consider major powers' interests in their foreign policies.

"This is a lesson too for Southeast Asian states," he said, referring to how Southeast Asia countries find themselves caught up in the US-China rivalry in recent years.

Rahman said the development also showed the limits of China's ability in "leveraging its investment in developing states to serve a broader military objective".

For years, India and China have vied for influence in Sri Lanka and across the wider Indian Ocean, with Delhi viewing the sea lanes as vital to defending its southernmost regions.

Amid strained ties with India over a border clash in 2020, China's expanding interests in the Indian Ocean include growing diplomatic and trade ties.

In 2008 and 2014, Beijing had deployed its navy and submarines respectively in the Gulf of Aden in support of its anti-piracy operations. In 2017, China established its first ever overseas military facility in the Indian Ocean, in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa.

Last November, Sri Lanka gave the green light to China's energy giant, Sinopec, to establish a new petroleum refinery plant in Hambantota, the town that also houses the deep water port that was leased to China in 2017 after Colombo defaulted on debt payments.

Sankalp Gurjar, assistant professor of geopolitics and international relations at the Manipal Academy of Higher Education, said the ban was also due to the growing frequency of Chinese research ships visiting Sri Lanka.

Each ship visit "is taken note of in Delhi and fears of China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean resurface", he said.

In addition, given Colombo's ability to tide over its most severe economic crisis from 2022 to last year, it had "acquired some wiggle room to be able to make such decisions", he added.

Gurjar said when Sri Lanka ceded control of Hambantota port to China, Colombo assuaged concerns then by arguing that the port would be used only for commercial operations.

Neil Devotta, professor of international affairs at Wake Forest University,, said India, and the US among others, was concerned that Chinese-owned ports might be converted to bases in the future, leading to China's further "power projection".

"The countries concerned would like to delay or prevent this development in the Indo-Pacific, hence the pressure on small states like Sri Lanka," he said, adding that while Colombo owed China money and relied on it for support in international forums, it mainly depended on Western markets for exports.

"Geography dictates that it is not in the island's interest to undermine Indian security considerations," he said. "As India's relative economic and military capabilities increase, Sri Lanka will have little choice but to give in more to its neighbour's preferences."

In 2022, Sri Lanka plunged into its worst economic crisis, suffering severe shortages and drawing protests that led to the ouster of then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa. In April 2022, Colombo declared bankruptcy with over US$83 billion in debt, more than half of it to foreign creditors.

Last month, the IMF approved the release of US$337 million, the second tranche of a US$2.9 billion bailout package after Colombo was said to have made progress towards reducing inflation and safeguarding financial stability.

Apart from extending help to Sri Lanka during its crisis, India is also Colombo's largest trade partner and source of foreign direct investment. Earlier this month, Colombo started upgrading the 67km railway tracks from Maho to Anuradhapura with Delhi's help.

Devotta added that Colombo might "come under pressure" to extend the one-year moratorium, which would then be considered a "strategic victory for both India and the US".

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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