The Atlantic

World War III?

Not likely. But Putin is warming up the dice.
Rough weather ahead. (Anton Petrus /Getty)

I’ll keep this brief because there’s only so much gloom we can shoulder before the holidays, but anyone who pays attention to foreign policy—you, me, NATO, folks like that—are all wondering if Russian president Vladimir Putin is going to use the huge military force he’s building up along the border with Ukraine.

Will Russia attack? Could it all turn into World War III, an all-out conflict between Putin’s diseased regime and the 30 nations of the Atlantic Alliance?

These are two separate questions. A Russian attack on Ukraine is possible and even probable; we know this because it’s happened before and the current along the border is merely an unstable cease-fire. World War III, however, is a lot less likely, and the use of nuclear weapons is even less likely.

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