Sparking new hope
New tool could predict fire season severity.
A NEW WARNING system, developed by Rick McRae, an adjunct professor at the University of New South Wales Canberra, might help predict the severity of a fire season months in advance by analysing conditions such as temperature anomalies and river-drying events. The framework is still in its trial phase but is intended to be used alongside the current fire-danger rating system, not replace it.
The world-first warning system comes at a crucial time, with fire behaviour changing across south-eastern Australia. Between 1980 and 2003, fewer than 10 pyrocumulonimbus firestorms were reported – but in the past 20 years this number has jumped to more than 120 (see Snapshot, page 18). There’s also been an increase in foehn-driven fires, in which warm, dry winds descend from higher terrain and intensify the blaze. Once rare, these fires formed nearly half of the major events during the Black Summer bushfires of 2019–20.
