The Sanctions Against Russia Are Starting to Work

Now that Russian President Vladimir Putin finds himself in a war of attrition, his only chance at victory depends on outlasting both Ukraine and its military supporters. He isn’t merely counting on the demoralization of the Ukrainian people and on “Ukraine fatigue” in the West; he’s also assuming that his own country has the stamina for a long and brutal fight. Yet after nearly two years in which Putin has largely succeeded in insulating most of his subjects from the war, the effects of Western sanctions—coupled with the astronomical and growing human and monetary costs of the conflict—are finally beginning to cause pain for the Russian general public.

Immediately after the invasion of Ukraine early last year, when the United States, the European Union, and other democratic nations moved to disconnect Russia from global financial and trade networks, many Western commentators hoped that the country’s economy would quickly buckle, creating pressure on Putin to withdraw. That hasn’t happened. This is up, and the country’s GDP has . Unemployment is at a . Although widening, the budget deficit is still manageable at 2 percent of the GDP. Higher global oil prices have allowed Putin to avoid raising taxes on individuals while increasing levies on exporters and slapping a one-time on corporate profits. Russia’s foreign-trade balance, while down from last year, is still net positive, despite the West’s sanctions.