Will Yemen's Houthis derail China's plans to be global diplomatic power broker?
Last month, China hosted representatives from Arab and Muslim-majority countries, boosting its bid as a major diplomatic power broker to defuse the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Not long before Beijing's call for an immediate Gaza ceasefire, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels escalated the threat of a conflict expansion by hijacking an Israel-linked commercial vessel in the Red Sea.
The Houthis, an ally of Tehran, on November 20 captured the Galaxy Leader, a Bahamian-flagged, Japanese-chartered British ship linked to Israeli business interests, in the proximity of the Yemeni coast. Part of the "Axis of Resistance" backed by Iran, the Houthis have rallied behind Palestinians in Gaza.
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In 2021, an Israeli-owned commercial vessel was targeted by the Houthis, pushing Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu to accuse Iran, even though Tehran had denied any involvement. Again, this time, Israel quickly blamed Tehran. Iran, claiming no direct control over Houthi actions, used similar wording in its response after the Hamas attack against Israel on October 7.
Though there are proxy connections between Iran and various groups like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia popular mobilisation units in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen, the degree of ideological alignment and willingness to strictly follow direct orders from Tehran vary among these militant organisations.
However, a question remains regarding how the Houthis tracked an India-bound vessel while its geolocation tracker was off. Typically, ships turn off the function to avoid detection in pirate-infested or conflict-ridden waters. Despite this, the Houthis located the ship and deployed a Soviet-era military helicopter with a commando on board, forcing the vessel to dock near the Yemeni port of Al-Hudayah. An Iranian vessel with advanced tracking capabilities was allegedly spotted in the area.
Amid Beijing's special envoy Zhai Jun's push for an urgent UN ceasefire in the Middle East, the involvement of proxy forces adds a layer of complexity, thwarting efforts for tangible outcomes.
The recent shift from Yemen's Houthis, moving beyond rhetoric to launching long-distance drone and missile strikes on October 31 against Israel, underscores a broader regional escalation that will not end with vessels hijacking. This expansion is not solely tied to the Houthis' or Hezbollah's will to open a second front in Lebanon - it is a larger, interconnected dynamic at play.
Since the onset of the Yemeni conflict in 2015, the Houthi forces' use of weaponised drones to target commercial vessels along the Bab al Mandeb Strait - a crucial passage linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden - hangs like a sword of Damocles over global trade.
This persistent threat poses a significant risk to one of the busiest maritime routes worldwide. Connecting the Mediterranean Sea with the Indian Ocean, the strait witnesses a daily flow of millions of barrels of oil that account for 9 per cent of total seaborne petroleum.
With over 40 per cent of its energy needs reliant on Middle Eastern oil and gas, China faces heightened challenges due to the growing uncertainty in maritime routes. If things worsen, the situation might regress to a time similar to the Iran-Iraq conflict in 1984-1988, and the so-called "Tanker war", when both sides deployed naval mines in large quantities to constrain merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
Today, the Houthis allegedly have hundreds of old Soviet naval mines and a small supply of Chinese rocket-propelled mines that can move on their own without needing buoyancy to reach their target.
The turmoil in the Middle East not only triggers soaring oil prices but also spikes insurance premiums and additional costs to install jammers for electromagnetic warfare and active anti-drone systems on commercial vessels. Chinese state-owned enterprises must now navigate these increased expenses amid economic downturns and a weaker yuan.
During the Yemeni civil war, the Houthis unconventionally used armed unmanned aerial vehicles to counter the Saudi-UAE coalition. Notably, the Houthis' drone warfare evolved significantly in 2021, targeting oil tankers and pipelines using suicide drones, in a heightened level of sophistication.
For example, during a 2022 joint drone and missile attack on a Saudi oil refinery by the Houthis, Brent spot prices rose by 5 per cent. Following the hijacking of Galaxy Leader, other vessels have been attacked, including a US destroyer that was targeted by ballistic missiles in the Gulf of Aden while providing support to an Israeli vessel in distress.
While the Middle East remains crucial for China's energy security and trade, the escalating provocations from the Houthis pose a concern not only from a trade and energy security perspective but also affecting China's credibility as a mediator.
Besides Beijing's recently brokered detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it is uncertain if Tehran will employ plausible deniability within its proxy ties to the Axis of Resistance, when Beijing invokes the favours gained from years of providing economic and diplomatic support to the Islamic Republic.
While Qatar and Egypt have successfully mediated a truce and hostage exchange between Israel and Hamas, the impact of the Houthis' involvement in the Gaza situation is adding another layer of complexity to Beijing's aspiring role as a mediator in the region.
Alessandro Arduino is an affiliate lecturer at the Lau China Institute and King's College London. He is the author of Money for Mayhem: Mercenaries, Private Military Companies, Drones, and the Future of War.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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