London
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has delivered an Autumn Statement “designed to curry favour [with voters] ahead of an election late in 2024”, says Paul Dales of Capital Economics. The net giveaway of £14.3bn in 2024-2025 (worth 0.5% of GDP) was a little more generous than had been expected and the “smaller fiscal squeeze may mean [consumer price] inflation is a bit higher than otherwise”. So, don’t expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates before late next year as opposed to next summer as is widely assumed. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had handed the chancellor a little more room for manoeuvre ahead of Wednesday in deciding the economy would be around 5.5% bigger at the end of the five-year forecast period in nominal terms than it had previously thought, despite revising down its real-term (ie, after inflation) forecasts for 2024 and 2025. National debt, expressed as a percentage of GDP, is expected to fall to 94% in five years’ time, from 97.8% at the end of October. “Overall, the
