Xi Jinping has ruled China for over a decade, but the way he rules it is changing. Xi faces domestic and international environments that are markedly worse than when he took office in 2012 as general secretary. The economy is struggling, confidence is faltering, debt is looming, and strategic competition with the United States and its allies is endangering the future of China’s technological advancement and economic growth.
Many analyses still portray Chinese politics in relatively static terms, as either returning to growth-oriented practicality post-COVID or having discarded economic concerns to pursue authoritarian control and geopolitical dominance. But what such takes miss is that policymaking is becoming increasingly volatile, as China’s mounting challenges lead Beijing into deeper swings between the politics of its ideological agenda and the pragmatism of delivering a baseline of economic growth. This volatility stems mostly from three balancing acts: balancing growth with security in economic policy, balancing diplomatic struggle against U.S. global leadership with avoiding economic decoupling from the West, and balancing competition among different factions in elite politics.
The defining theme of domestic policymaking in Xi’s third
