Japan urged to be transparent about Fukushima water release tests, amid charm offensive to defuse tensions

If Japan is to defuse tensions over the discharge of waste water from its crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and put to rest accusations of environmental damage, then analysts say it must be completely transparent and share accurate data on radiation levels.

But even that may not be enough to satisfy the fiercest critics of its decision to gradually discharge the treated water into the Pacific Ocean over the next three decades.

"Japan has really dug itself into a deep hole on this entire issue and is finding it very hard to get out again," said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

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"From the outset, it really did not communicate well with its neighbours, and it was a case of 'propose, announce and defend the decision'," he told This Week in Asia. "And that means the charm offensive has come too late."

For some countries, criticism of the Fukushima water release has taken on a nationalistic tone, and it will join a long list of other issues - wartime "comfort women" and forced labourers during Japan's colonial era, competing territorial claims and economic friction, among others - that can be deployed against Tokyo when the need arises, experts suggest.

While some governments have been swayed by the science behind the decision, observers say for others it will be an opportunity to weaken Japan's standing and reputation.

"Some of the neighbours are clearly politicising this to keep Japan on the back foot and diplomatically weakened," Kingston said.

If Tokyo wants to stand any chance of winning over the naysayers, analysts say it has to be completely open.

Japan appears to be taking steps to defuse the crisis by working closely with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), clearly stating radiation levels in the water that is being released and sharing that information with the international community.

Various governments and agencies have put forward alternatives. China and Russia proposed that the water be evaporated and released into the atmosphere, while others suggested it be buried underground or remain stored at the site in additional tanks until a better solution for its disposal is devised.

On Friday, one day after the pipeline from the plant was opened and water began flowing out to sea, Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Yasutoshi Nishimura, the trade and industry minister, held online meetings with IAEA director general Rafael Grossi.

The ministers expressed their gratitude for the UN nuclear watchdog's support for Japan's decision and Grossi's promise of continued involvement "until the last drop" is released from the plant.

IAEA officials at the plant on Thursday measured tritium in the diluted water before it was released and confirmed it was below the regulatory standard of 1,500 becquerels per litre. Water from the plant was sampled on Friday and again on Saturday, with officials reporting that tritium was at the non-detect level.

Japan has already won support for its course of action from the United States, the European Union, Australia and a number of other Asia-Pacific states. Alicia Barcena, the Mexican foreign secretary, was the latest to add her support, saying in a phone call with Hayashi on Thursday that she was confident Japan would comply with international standards.

Despite this, Kingston said the "olive branch" of carrying out spot checks on water quality and quickly making those results public had still failed to dispel suggestions that Japan was not being completely transparent from the outset.

By far the most vocal critic of Japan's decision has been China, which has imposed a blanket ban on all imports of Japanese seafood.

And while South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has said his administration trusts the science and does not object to the release, the opposition has rallied public opinion against that qualified support.

Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo, said Japan had done "what it can to communicate and explain the science behind the release" and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' statement that it would take responsibility for the decision "is very significant because they have now put their name on the line".

"Going forward, Japan has to ensure that it upholds the transparency that it is showing and even allow other parties to come in and test the water for themselves, as they have done for the South Koreans," he said.

Hinata-Yamaguchi noted that China, however, was going to be difficult - if not impossible - to bring around, as it was "playing its own game".

"China has raised its fist and, at this point, it does not look like it knows how it can put that fist down again," he said.

"I do not believe that Japan trying to communicate more with China will have any positive effect and is actually only likely to provoke them more."

According to Hinata-Yamaguchi, the Pacific island nations should arguably be the target of most Japanese outreach on the water release, as these are likely to be the most immediately affected. It has therefore been worrying to see China's allies in the region falling into line with Beijing, he said.

Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare of the Solomon Islands has issued a "strong statement against Japan's decision" on the grounds that it would have an "impact on our people, ocean, economy and livelihood".

Similarly, the opposition Fiji First party organised a protest march in the Fijian capital of Suva on Friday. The party's leader, Frank Bainimarama, is a former prime minister who forged close ties with Beijing while in office.

"Japan has no choice but to keep communicating with these governments, showing them the results of its testing and being completely transparent," Hinata-Yamaguchi said. "Beyond that, there is not much they can do."

Kingston said it was unlikely Beijing would back down on its criticism of Japan, even if tests throughout the region continued to return figures within international standards.

"It is going to be increasingly difficult to improve bilateral relations and I also do not see Japan backing down from its position," he said. "The good news is that other countries around the world are going to get some bargains on Japanese fish."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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