US, China will determine issue of war and peace, Taiwan merely a 'piece on the chessboard': Singapore's George Yeo

Former Singapore foreign minister George Yeo says Taipei, Beijing and Washington have exercised caution in recent weeks in dealing with the Taiwan issue, and that he would not overplay the importance of a Taiwanese presidential election scheduled for January.

Referring to Taiwan's presidential front runner William Lai Ching-te's visit to the United States and Paraguay earlier this month ahead of the crucial polls, Yeo said it was "calibrated to be low profile".

Lai, who is currently Taiwan's vice-president and a member of the Democratic Progressive Party, transited through New York and San Francisco on his way to Paraguay to attend President Santiago Pena's inauguration, but did not meet any US officials or lawmakers. Paraguay is one of only 13 nations to maintain formal ties with Taipei.

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"It was not only his wish, but it was an American requirement, and China's response was equally calibrated," Yeo said, referring to its more restrained drills conducted after Lai's visit.

The People's Liberation Army staged joint air and naval combat readiness patrols around Taiwan on August 19, in contrast to the three-day live-fire exercises around the island after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's stopover in the US in April, when she met US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

"If the US had given more room for Lai, and he had taken it, then China's response would have been much more vigorous," Yeo said, adding that "all parties are playing in the zone of grey, which does not lead to imminent war".

Beijing regards the self-ruled island as a breakaway province to be brought under mainland control - by force, if necessary. Many countries, including the US, do not officially recognise Taiwan as an independent state but oppose the use of force to change the status quo.

Speaking to This Week in Asia ahead of the launch of part three of his book series, Musings, which is based on interviews with Singapore media veteran Woon Tai Ho, Yeo said he would not overplay the importance of Taiwan's coming presidential election.

Since his retirement from frontline Singapore politics in 2011, the 68-year-old has remained an active commentator on Asian geopolitics. Given Yeo's close links to Hong Kong - where he is a permanent resident following a 2012-2021 stint there as a Kerry Group executive - his views about China are closely followed among the city's elite circles.

The Taiwan polls "are important, but whether or not relations between America and China are good or bad depend on America and China; Taiwan is only a piece on the chessboard", the former cabinet minister told This Week in Asia.

"If the Taiwanese want to be played on that chessboard, then they will offer themselves, and the Americans will decide to play, or not," Yeo said. "But Taiwan by itself will not determine the issue of war and peace; it's America, and its relationship with China."

On Monday, Beijing banned imports of mangoes from Taiwan, a move that came on the heels of similar orders over the past two years against imports of Taiwanese pineapples, wax apples, citrus fruits and certain types of seafood.

A species of the mealybug insect was said to have been detected on the mangoes, with the mainland's Taiwan Affairs Office saying the "pests" could hurt farm production and its "ecological safety".

On Wednesday, the Pentagon said the US had approved a possible US$500 million sale to Taiwan of infrared search and track systems for F-16 fighter jets, as well as other equipment.

Mainland China has repeatedly demanded the US - Taiwan's most important arms supplier - halt its decades of weapon sales to the island.

"On mangoes and pineapples, China has always been very careful to invoke some provisions in the World Trade Organization phytosanitary requirements; they've never said they are using mangoes and pineapples against the F-16s," Yeo said.

"Both sides are playing a game so that they are not offside, because neither side really wants a blow-up," he said, given the ongoing war in Ukraine, the poor state of the global economy, and the US presidential election next year.

"So in the short term, I am not all that pessimistic," Yeo said, pointing to the ongoing visits of US cabinet ministers to the Chinese mainland, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's trip to Beijing and Shanghai this week.

Raimondo's visit is widely viewed as a sign that stalled high-level visits between the world's two largest economies are resuming amid growing tensions stemming from geopolitical wrangling.

The visit also makes it increasingly likely that Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet US President Joe Biden in San Francisco on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in November.

On Tuesday, Beijing welcomed Washington's decision to lift export control restrictions on 27 Chinese entities, saying it was conducive to normalising trade between Chinese and American firms.

"I don't expect dramatic improvement, but in the coming months, I don't see significant deterioration in bilateral relations," Yeo said.

Lai's main opponent in the January 13 vote is Hou Yu-ih of the main opposition Kuomintang party.

"Of course, the US would still prefer Lai to win, because that gives them more room to play Taiwan, but ... that's for the Taiwanese to decide how much they wish to be played," Yeo said, adding that Taiwan could decide that it did not want to be played by removing itself from the chessboard.

Yeo said that would mean Taipei deciding on the one-China consensus, and working towards a greater convergence "into a polity which is neither the People's Republic of China nor the Republic of China in the future".

"Then China will be much more assured that it is not moving in the direction of independence, and the Americans can't do very much. So that's a choice for the Taiwanese to make," he said.

"You want to be on that chessboard, then you may be played. And that's your choice."

There were some Taiwanese who thought that if the self-ruled island's status quo was only kept for long enough, then "one day something will happen to China, and the great sea will part, and they can make a dash across and become independent," he said.

Referring to the late Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui, who had once compared himself to the Biblical figure of Moses - a prophet who rescued the Israelites from Egypt by parting the Red Sea - Yeo said it was highly risky to build a policy "on the hope that the great sea will open".

Because if that did not happen and if Taiwan did not want an alternative arrangement, Yeo said, the island might find itself "in a very uncomfortable position when the time comes" as mainland China was likely to become stronger relative to the US, which meant Taipei's negotiating position would become weaker.

To be launched on August 31, Musings comes on the heels of two earlier editions of Yeo's book series, which emerged as bestsellers in Singapore for several months.

When asked about the popularity of the series - spanning the importance of human diversity and Singapore's reflection within itself of the world, to history, politics, economics, philosophy and religion - Yeo said the books contained "views and speculations, also hopes and fears".

"They tell stories of big things and small," he said. "It's partly philosophy, it's partly belief, it's almost like a conversation one might have with a friend over a coffee, over a glass of whisky."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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