Malaysia state polls: how a 'wave of discontent' in Selangor could drive referendum on PM Anwar's unity government

At a modest campaign outpost set up behind a petrol station, senior Malaysian opposition figure Azmin Ali declared that the outcome of next weekend's Selangor state election will be a referendum that could well decide the fate of the federal administration led by his former ally, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

Making his pitch to a small crowd gathered under the outpost's two canopies, Azmin - vilified as a traitor by supporters of Anwar's Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance - said there had been little reprieve for a general public who have faced escalating living costs Anwar's unity government came to power following November's general election.

"We must send a signal to Putrajaya. Enough with the drama and help the people," Azmin said, his voice booming through the speakers.

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"Otherwise, once we are done with the six state elections ... not long after that we will find the light in Putrajaya," he said to cheers from supporters, referring to Malaysia's administrative capital.

Six of Malaysia's 13 states will go to the polls on August 12 - the opposition-held states of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu in the north and the pro-unity government states of Negeri Sembilan, Penang and Selangor, all on the Malay Peninsula.

The outcome of the state elections will have little direct bearing on Anwar's hold on federal power, but is widely seen as his administration's first real test of popularity, especially with the ethnic Malay majority, after he formed a government that included long-time rival Umno, which was roundly rejected by voters in the November contest.

However, the results of the Selangor election could carry weighty consequences for Anwar's unity government.

As the country's richest and most developed state, Selangor has been the crown jewel of PH's political achievements, having wrested control of the state from Umno in 2008 when they were still adversaries.

On its own, Selangor's output contributed 25.5 per cent to Malaysia's gross domestic product last year, according to government data.

When combined with the national capital of Kuala Lumpur - which is encapsulated by Selangor and where PH holds the lion's share of parliamentary seats - the total GDP contribution rises to 41.4 per cent, more than the total output of the next six states.

Selangor also has the largest share of voters eligible to cast their ballots next week at around 3.7 million, more than a third of the 9.7 million voters registered in all six states.

"Selangor is the battleground for many reasons, especially the fact that it is truly a 'mixed' state ... with Malays making up over 60 per cent [of the vote base]," said Syaza Farhana Mohamad Shukri, head of the political science department at the International Islamic University of Malaysia.

"So it is true that how the Malays vote in Selangor could truly cause a swing [in fortunes for the incumbent PH state government]."

While descriptions and perspectives may differ between the opposition and Anwar's rag-tag coalition of parties under his unity government, both sides acknowledge that any major political shift will depend heavily on how the Malay-Muslim community - who account for more than 60 per cent of Malaysia's 32 million population - feels.

The Perikatan Nasional (PN) alliance formed a formidable Malay nationalist minority in parliament on the back of what pundits have described as a "green wave" of support - reflecting the party colour of coalition member the Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) - from Malays seeking a new champion for their identity politics.

PN decried the "green wave" tag as an attempt by the unity government, particularly the Chinese-majority Democratic Action Party, to sow fear among the country's non-Malay communities over the possible spread of hardline Islamisation should the opposition take power.

PN leaders prefer to call it a "wave of discontent" driven by anger over what they had described as the erosion of Malay rights and preferential treatment afforded to them under decades of affirmative action policies and the alleged rampant corruption in former ruling party Umno after 60 years in power.

But beyond the political rhetoric, the recurring issue that comes to mind for Selangor's voters has more to do with sheer survival.

"Everything is just more expensive now. Our electricity and water bills have gone up and we're getting less help," said a 58-year-old Selangor retiree, who asked to be identified as Muhamad.

"I don't have any issues with the state government. My problem is with the federal government and Anwar ... if PH delivered on all their promises, PN would not get the support that it has now.

"I voted PH in November, but this time I will vote PN. We just want to see change," he said.

Muhamad's sentiments fall in line with findings by political analyst Bridget Welsh, who said early surveys suggested that as much as half of Umno's traditional support base among the Malay community had shifted to PN.

The change was a result of PN's deft manoeuvring of Malay sentiments as the country struggled with the twin effects of the Covid-19-induced economic downturn and soaring inflation, she said, adding to their ability to tap into long-held racial prejudices to bolster their Malay nationalist credentials.

"There clearly has been a swing in Malay support towards PN in GE15 and I would suggest that had continued since," Welsh told This Week in Asia, referring to the 15th general election in November. "The question is the scope of that [swing]."

The consensus among analysts is for PH and its new partners in the Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) alliance to retain power in Selangor, albeit with a narrower majority in the state assembly.

PH holds incumbency in 45 of the 56 state seats up for grabs, while BN has five seats through Umno.

But PN leaders think there is a sufficient groundswell, among not just Malay voters but also members of Chinese and Indian ethnic minorities, to hand them as many as 35 seats come August 12.

Former Umno leader Khairy Jamaluddin said in a commentary piece last week that it could take as little as a 5 per cent swing in Malay votes for PN to win a simple majority in Selangor if voter turnout is low.

There is concern that supporters from both PH and BN camps may choose to sit out this election as they find it difficult to reconcile the fact that their once-sworn political enemies are now partners at federal level, some campaign workers have said.

When the king appointed Anwar as prime minister in November, it came with the condition that he form a unity government that brought PH and BN together as partners after years of enmity.

The combination of a swing in Malay fence-sitting voters and a low turnout could present a real risk for PH, especially in marginal seats, though it does not look to be as severe as claimed by the opposition, according to Hafidzi Razali, an associate director at political risk consultancy BowerGroupAsia.

"For now, PH still has the upper hand, but it will have to continuously reassure [its supporters and voters] that its principles trump political expediency, which may be tricky if the unity government's priority is to keep its relationship with Umno intact," Hafidzi said.

At a more granular level, Malay voters appear to be quite picky about who political parties decide to put up as candidates in their areas, according to a study on Malay perspectives and political realignment in the August state polls carried out by the Malaysia and International Studies Institute at the National University of Malaysia.

The study, published on Wednesday, found that fence-sitters in particular placed a premium on the quality of candidates, with some saying an elected representative's performance holds more weight compared to having a good party leader.

By that measure, PN's Azmin fits the bill as a high-quality candidate, according to trader Wan Zainal Wan Ahmad.

Wan Zainal said it did not matter much to him that Azmin was a key leader behind the 2020 political coup that brought down the PH government - which led to the latter's sacking from Anwar's People's Justice Party (PKR).

"He served us well when he was our elected representative and as menteri besar (first minister), he implemented free bus services and free water," the 56-year-old said of Azmin, who led the state administration for one term while with PKR.

"I don't care much about the party, I look at the candidate. If your party has good leaders but can't help the people, what's the point?

"Given a choice, I will support Azmin. I really hope he comes back to where he belongs, as our menteri besar," Wan Zainal said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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