Turkey deals with Saudi Arabia, UAE herald new security ties amid US shift to counter China, Russia

A string of deals by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has established Turkey as an important new security partner for the Gulf monarchies, at a time when the United States is undertaking a drawdown of forces in the Middle East in line with its shift in foreign policy focus towards containing China and Russia.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week made a landmark tour of the Gulf, returning to Ankara having secured US$11.5 billion in financial assistance from the UAE to help shore up Turkey's depleted foreign exchange reserves, fast-depreciating lira currency and yawning budgetary deficit.

Erdogan also reached agreements with the UAE and Saudi Arabia to establish joint defence production programmes with Turkey, which has the second-largest military in Nato. Turkish defence manufacturer Baykar received its largest overseas orders from Saudi Arabia for the transfer of technology and joint production of its military drones.

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The deals signed in the Gulf during Erdogan's visit represent a rapid turnaround in relations since 2020. Turkey and the Saudi-Emirati alliance were at loggerheads throughout the 2010s because they backed opposite sides in Egypt, Libya and other regional states where civil wars were sparked by the Arab spring revolutions at the start of the decade.

"Many of the factors which led some Gulf Cooperation Council states to feel threatened by Turkey's foreign policy have drastically changed, giving Riyadh and Abu Dhabi less reason to perceive Ankara as a dangerous actor," said Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington-based geopolitical risk consultancy.

Not all suspicions have been removed and there are potential scenarios whereby geopolitical tensions could resurface, "making it difficult to predict the directions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE's rapprochements with Turkey".

"But I believe that these Gulf states and Ankara can build lasting strategic partnerships as all the regional actors adjust to the realities of a more multipolar world and countries in the Middle East act with more agency and autonomy from Washington," Cafiero said.

Under the Islamist Erdogan, Turkey and its wealthy Gulf ally Qatar supported the elected Muslim Brotherhood governments which emerged in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia during the Arab spring rebellions.

This alarmed the Saudi and Emirati monarchies, who view populist Islamist political movements as an existential threat to the established autocratic order in the Arab world.

They responded by supporting countercoups and rebel factions in these countries, including the 2013 military coup which overthrew Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood government.

With the atmosphere of the Arab spring now greatly diminished, and doubts arising about the extent of continued US support, "there's really been a shift recently from an ideological perspective to a more realpolitik position" in the Gulf and Turkey, said Istanbul-based analyst Yusuf Erim.

This has enabled Turkey and its Gulf Arab rivals to "get together, be able to talk about regional developments from a more pragmatic perspective", he said.

"We have seen this result in a wider grand convergence of the region", resulting in major geopolitical changes including the normalisation of Turkey's relations with the Gulf monarchies, and the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and many Arab countries.

"It is no coincidence these were all simultaneously undertaken in a short period of time," said Erim, an editor-at-large from Turkish broadcaster TRT World.

"Many of these players were reading the same chessboard. They understood they needed local solutions to their regional problems because there would be less US assistance going forward," he said.

This helped create an atmosphere in which geopolitical tensions between Ankara, and Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were addressed.

When the two sides looked at what divided them and the economic, political and security interests that they shared, "they decided it was much more profitable to cooperate rather than compete with each other", Erim said.

This realpolitik-based approach was reflected in the language of strategic deals struck by Erdogan with Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey "expressed their determination" to enhance cooperation and coordination in defence and military industries, and to activate their agreements "in a way that serves and achieves the common interests of the two countries and contributes to achieving security and peace in the region and the world", according to a joint statement issued on Tuesday.

Similarly, Erdogan's visit to Abu Dhabi yielded an agreement to establish a "strategic council" to strengthen relations between Turkey and the UAE, along with an agreement to develop joint defence production programmes.

This was reinforced by investment agreements collectively valued at US$50.7 billion - an enormous leap compared to accumulative overall Emirati investments of US$7.8 billion in Turkey by the end of 2021.

The new deals will be added to the framework of the comprehensive economic partnership agreement signed by the two countries in March, under which they aim to more than double bilateral non-oil trade to over US$40 billion over the next five years.

Separately, Abu Dhabi wealth fund ADQ agreed to buy US$8.5 billion worth of Turkish bonds to finance the construction of homes in southern and central areas of Turkey devastated by a massive earthquake in February.

ADQ also agreed to extend US3 billion in credit to Turkish firms seeking to export goods and services to the UAE and other overseas markets.

While the financial and project specifics of a multitude of sector-specific economic deals struck between Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Jeddah on Monday were not disclosed, they also included agreements on financial assistance and investments to Ankara.

Joint ventures and initiatives will become part of the framework of a bilateral coordination committee currently that is in the making.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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