Foreign Policy Magazine

How to Benchmark Victory in Ukraine

When U.S. President George W. Bush gave his “mission accomplished” speech aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln only six weeks into the Iraq War in 2003, it quickly became a cautionary tale against declaring victory in an unpredictable war. Washington didn’t withdraw most of its forces until eight years later, and the pullout resembled defeat much more than victory.

Twenty years later in Ukraine, the risk is not declaring victory prematurely—but not defining victory at all.

For almost a year and a half, Ukraine’s Western supporters have provided it with the weapons, munitions, training, funds, and political support to push back Russian invading forces. With this help, Ukraine has been able to regain about half the territory Russia has occupied since Feb. 24, 2022. It is a remarkable and undeniable success.

But Ukraine’s supporters have shied

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