Indonesia election: Jokowi teases 'brave, gutsy' Ganjar Pranowo as successor, as Prabowo goes off script
In the shadow boxing of Indonesia's pre-election season, a sounding of support for the "brave, gutsy" Ganjar Pranowo by incumbent President Joko Widodo has set tongues wagging that the Central Java governor will enjoy heavyweight backing come next year.
Indonesia, the world's third-largest democracy, will pick a new president in February. It will be the first time since 2014, when Widodo - better known as 'Jokowi' - took office, winning plaudits for stewarding growth and beckoning in foreign investment to pay for ambitious infrastructure schemes.
As Widodo, 61, draws to the end of his second and final five-year term, his remarks last week during a meeting of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), suggested to many that he has anointed his political heir.
Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.
"A future leader [should be] like Mr. Ganjar Pranowo, the most important thing [a leader should have] is courage, [they should have] bravery and guts. I can see that Ganjar has that quality," Widodo said on Tuesday.
February's election will be held in the wake of a pandemic that has tugged on Indonesia's hopes of becoming a "high income" nation by 2045 and spurred a global inflation crisis that has made life more expensive for many in Southeast Asia's biggest economy.
Experts say the polls will pivot on economic conditions, Jokowi's enduring star power and the ability of the presidential candidates to weave their narrative of Indonesia's future to 205 million eligible voters.
Ganjar, aged 54, has nearly 10 million social media followers, and as governor of Central Java since 2013 has cemented a reputation as a man of the people - the biography on his verified Twitter account says "my master is the people, governor is just a mandate".
He has the support of the PDI-P's rank and file, and chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri announced him as the party's presidential candidate on April 21, but he has not yet earned the formal endorsement of its leading light, Widodo.
Bravery has been a recurring theme for Widodo over recent weeks, however, and he may be pinning it on Ganjar as a political badge, before campaigning begins in earnest.
"[Indonesia needs] a brave leader, brave for the sake of the people," Widodo said in an earlier speech on May 14.
"The people need leaders who understand, who know how to advance this country. The leader must understand and know the potential and strength of this country."
The thousands-strong crowd responded by chanting Ganjar's name.
There have also been some stumbles for Ganjar. He was engulfed in an antisemitism row as he joined opposition to Israel's participation in the Fifa Under-20 World Cup football tournament, which was supposed to be held in resort island Bali in May.
It was eventually moved to Argentina after Fifa pulled the hosting rights from Indonesia, which has no diplomatic links with Israel and supports the Palestine cause.
His top polling for the presidency dipped, to be taken over by defence minister Prabowo Subianto, a 71-year-old former general running for a third time after twice being beaten by Widodo.
In a survey held between April 29-May 10 by pollster Litbang Kompas, Prabowo was preferred by 24.5 per cent of respondents, more than Ganjar's 22.8 per cent, marking a rare lead over Ganjar who had previously been a consistent front runner.
But the slump appears temporary. The latest survey by the same pollster released on May 24 showed that 40 per cent of 1,200 respondents would vote for Ganjar if the election were held today, while Prabowo had a 37 per cent approval rate.
The lead candidate from opposition parties, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, ranked last with 23 per cent of the votes.
"Jokowi's statement about courage was likely related to Ganjar's response during the fuss over the participation of the Israeli national team in the U-20 World Cup," said Wasisto Raharjo Jati, a political analyst with the Jakarta-based National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN). "Ganjar moved against the mainstream by refusing Israel."
Yet for all the applause in public, experts still doubt that Widodo has made up his mind on which candidate should earn his valuable endorsement.
"He may have said those things [about Ganjar] because he was speaking in PDI-P's national meeting. On other occasions, he gave hints that he would support Prabowo," said Arya Fernandes, political researcher from Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia.
In November, Widodo quipped that 2024 "belongs to Prabowo", sparking rumours he may back the former special forces commander. Prabowo has also accompanied Widodo multiple times in regional visits across Indonesia, further cementing the two politicians' strong ties.
"The presidential election is still very competitive now, and it may go to the second round," Arya said.
"Names of the potential vice-presidents are also still [unclear]. My guess is that Jokowi, as a rational politician, will endorse both Prabowo and Ganjar, although one of them will have more support [than the other]."
PDI-P, the largest party in Widodo's ruling coalition, is yet to announce a running mate for Ganjar. But Puan Maharani, one of the party's top brass, told reporters on Tuesday that some names had been considered for the ticket.
These include coordinating minister for political, legal and security affairs Mohammad Mahfud; state-owned enterprises minister Erick Thohir; tourism and creative economy minister Sandiaga Uno; West Java governor Ridwan Kamil; and coordinating minister for economic affairs Airlangga Hartarto.
The reasons for Widodo's reticence to commit to a successor are unclear.
But observers speculate it may be to avoid seeding discord among his party in the run-up to an election he wants it to win to ensure continuity in the roll-out of major projects - including the multibillion dollar move of the capital from Jakarta to Nusantara.
"The president avoided the kingmaker label, because it could potentially cause internal friction in the PDI-P," Wasisto of BRIN said.
"This has prevented Jokowi from expressing his full support towards [a particular candidate] even though his party has already announced its presidential candidate."
On Tuesday, he defended his self-confessed "meddling" in choosing a successor, saying the interference was to "ensure that the national leadership transition happens simultaneously ... without any ripples that endanger the nation."
Some observers believe Widodo may have floated the idea of pairing Ganjar and Prabowo on the same ticket for his PDI-P party, as a way to secure the continuation of his infrastructure projects and other policies.
Last week in Singapore, Widodo was at pains to reassure potential investors that the election will not affect ambitious plans to move the capital.
"Your investment in Indonesia will continue to be safe and also the continuity of the Nusantara new capital city," he told the Ecosperity forum in Singapore on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. "Everything will be fine, don't worry."
Speculation abounds in Jakarta over whether Widodo is irate with Prabowo after he proposed a controversial peace plan for the war in Ukraine - without consulting his boss - outlining a ceasefire and a demilitarised buffer zone.
The idea, mooted at the Shangri-La Dialogue defence summit in Singapore, was immediately dismissed by Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov as akin to "a Russian plan."
Widodo said he would summon his deputy to seek clarification. The two met in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday evening to kick-start the president's state visit to Malaysia, but it was not immediately clear whether Widodo had talked to Prabowo about the off-script diplomacy.
Experts say there is a world of difference between being irked and estranged in Indonesian politics.
"This will affect the Jokowi-Prabowo relationship in the short term, but not in the medium term," Arya of CSIS Indonesia said.
"Foreign affairs are not domestic political issues, their influence [on the elections] is not yet big and Widodo pays more attention to domestic issues."
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
Copyright (c) 2023. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
