Will Donald Trump's federal indictment hurt his chances of winning 2024 US presidential race? Pundits split

The historic federal indictment of former US president Donald Trump, the Republican Party's front-running candidate for next year's election, has pundits split over how his latest legal tangle will affect his chances to retake the White House from Joe Biden.

The US Justice Department unsealed a sweeping 37-count felony indictment related to the mishandling of classified documents on Friday, including allegations that Trump described a Pentagon "plan of attack" and shared a classified map related to a military operation.

Most of the charges against Trump, who was indicted along with Walt Nauta, an aide and close adviser to the former president, relate to "wilful retention of national defence information". Others include one count of "conspiracy to obstruct justice" and another of "corruptly concealing a document or record".

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This marks the second criminal case for Trump, and may not be the last. He is due to go on trial in New York next March in a state case stemming from a hush-money payment to a porn actress. Trump is also is under investigation for his role in the deadly January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol by his supporters.

Meanwhile, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, a Democrat, has been investigating allegations that Trump tried to convince Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and the southeastern US state's governor, Brian Kemp, both Republicans, to deny that Biden won their state in the 2020 presidential election.

And last month, a jury in federal court in Manhattan decided in a civil lawsuit that he must pay US$5 million in damages for sexually abusing former Elle magazine columnist E. Jean Carroll and then defaming her by branding her a liar.

The accumulating legal actions against the former president inject an uncertain dynamic into the coming presidential election as the developments had not affected his standing as the Republican Party's front runner, although it remains to be seen how much the newly released evidence against Trump will sway public opinion.

In a Quinnipiac poll conducted for five days ended May 22, Trump garnered 56 per cent compared with 25 per cent for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who declared his candidacy last month. That represented a doubling of Trump's lead against his main opponent in less than two months.

Nikki Haley, a former US ambassador to the United Nations, Trump's vice-president Mike Pence and several others have also entered the race for the Republican nomination, all polling behind DeSantis.

As the field of candidates grows, Trump has used the cases and investigations he faces as fundraising tools, telling supporters that he is under attack and needs their help. Trump's campaign said in April that donations surged after he was indicted in New York.

Todd Belt, a political-science professor at George Washington University, said the latest indictment was likely to boost Trump's polling further.

"Donald Trump has been exceptional at turning bad news into good politics in terms of fundraising, and it allows him to claim victimhood, which he loves to do," Belt said.

"We saw pretty much unanimity of the voices of some of the highest-ranking members in the House of Representatives and Senate really rallying behind him."

Within minutes of Trump's announcement of the federal indictment, his 2024 team began pushing the news to raise funds for his presidential campaign, asking "hardworking patriots" to "SAVE AMERICA" and contribute amounts ranging from US$24 to US$3,300.

Trump wrote a post declaring he had been indicted, saying that he "never thought it possible that such a thing could happen to a former president of the United States", and that he was "AN INNOCENT MAN!"

He then professed his innocence in a video and framed the indictment as a form of election interference by a Justice Department "weaponised" by the Biden administration.

"They come after me because now we're leading in the polls again by a lot against Biden," Trump said in the clip.

"Our country is going to hell and they come after Donald Trump ... We can't let this continue."

Fellow Republicans have so far stood by Trump, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has had a roller-coaster relationship with the former president.

"Today is indeed a dark day for the United States of America. It is unconscionable for a president to indict the leading candidate opposing him," McCarthy said in a statement.

"I, and every American who believes in the rule of law, stand with President Trump."

DeSantis echoed Trump's claims of a "weaponised" Justice Department, adding on Twitter that he would "excise political bias" if elected president.

The Twitter account of Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee posted a repeated Trump slogan: "WITCH HUNT".

Special counsel Jack Smith, named by US Attorney General Merrick Garland, has been looking into a cache of classified documents that Trump stored at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida after leaving the White House.

Garland brought Smith on to the case to deflect criticism that any charges brought against Trump were politically motivated.

Biden was also found to have had classified documents from the time of his tenure as vice-president in his possession, in multiple troves both at his home in Delaware and at the Penn Biden Centre in Washington, giving Trump and his allies some degree of defence.

Garland appointed a former US attorney as special counsel to investigate Biden's handling of the classified documents. The main difference in the two cases is that Biden officials alerted federal authorities to their improper placement.

"Even though ... the attempt to obstruct justice is very different than what Biden did, the Republicans can point to the fact even though it's not apples to apples, that Biden did it too," Belt said. "That really gives them sort of the rationale to be dismissive and to call [Trump's indictment] politically motivated."

Not everyone agreed that Trump's latest indictment would boost his political standing in the coming primaries or the general election.

Terry Haines, founder of Washington consultancy Pangaea Policy, said the action would likely further alienate anyone not in Trump's base.

"The indictment increases the already substantial likelihood that Trump won't again be president, increasing already substantial toxicity with independent and centrist voters," Haines said in a research note. "It also increases the likelihood that Trump won't be the Republican nominee."

"The other candidates - including his former vice-president [Mike Pence] and other prominent 2016 supporters - now will 'pack swarm' Trump ... intensifying efforts to paint Trump as unfit for office even while they raise questions about the appropriateness of prosecuting a former president," he added.

William Banks, a professor emeritus of public administration and international affairs at Syracuse University, said the fact that Trump's polling numbers rose after the hush-money indictment in New York would make an uptick in the polls possible even while facing much more serious charges related to national security.

However, while Trump's "most diehard supporters are always going to be supporters no matter what ... some people who are on the margins, part of the 40 per cent that voted for him a couple of times, will tend to peel away", he said.

"These are charges that he's retained national security information and actually shared some of it with others at his golf course in a way that could be injurious to the United States," Banks added. "And we've always taken very seriously threats to national security."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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