Once ruled out as potential PM, Singapore's Tharman Shanmugaratnam quits cabinet to make bid for elected president

A respected elder statesman that Singapore's ruling party once discounted as a potential prime minister because his Indian ethnicity was feared to be a handicap in the majority-Chinese city state is now its likely favourite for the post of president.

Tharman Shanmugaratnam, 66, on Thursday became the first individual to throw his hat into the ring for the presidential poll due by mid-September.

He declared his plan to resign from the Singapore cabinet to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Thursday, setting his final day in office as senior minister and coordinating minister for social policies on July 7, the prime minister's office announced as it released an exchange of letters between the two men.

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"If I am fortunate enough to be elected as president I will represent the unity of Singaporeans, of all races and religions, social backgrounds and political leanings, at a time when views in the population are becoming more diverse ... I will also work to the best of my abilities to project Singapore's interests and voice of reason in an increasingly turbulent world," wrote Tharman, who will also resign from the ruling People's Action Party.

In his letter of acceptance, PM Lee said Tharman's departure represented a "heavy loss" to him and his team and that his leadership would be missed but he understood why his senior colleague wanted to make bid for the presidency, as it was "in keeping with the spirit of public service and sense of duty that you have shown all these years".

He paid tribute to Tharman, widely regarded as a social reformer, for working hard to "build a more inclusive society and to improve wages and create better jobs" for the people.

Observers said the People's Action Party can leverage his formidable popularity to stave off unwanted contenders for the elected office and create a feel-good factor that could flow into the country's parliamentary elections due by 2025 but likely to be called earlier.

Singapore's constitution requires nominees to quit any party affiliations before they can run for the job. Traditionally, however, the PAP leaders have publicly endorsed a preferred candidate.

Currently a senior minister in Prime Minister Lee's cabinet, Tharman is expected to enjoy the unanimous support of his colleagues and their massive election machinery.

Tharman, a former central banker and an economist by training, entered politics in 2001, serving distinguished stints as education minister, finance minister and deputy prime minister.

Despite his technocratic credentials, he was highly popular on the ground. In a survey commissioned by Yahoo News in 2017, nearly seven in 10 people polled said they supported him succeeding Lee as prime minister. He received twice as many votes as his fellow senior elder statesman Teo Chee Hean, who came in second.

Dr Woo Jun Jie, senior research fellow at Singapore's Institute of Policy Studies, said that Tharman has been "vocal" and "opinionated in his views", so he is likely to serve as a check and balance for the government, if he is elected president.

He added that his experience in international organisations, most notably as chair of the International Monetary Fund's International Monetary and Financial Committee, would make him a "great head of state" and allow him to play a diplomatic role, alongside the new prime minister.

Tharman's popularity at home has been consistently reflected in parliamentary election results. In 2015, his team swept the five-seat Jurong district with a 79 per cent vote share, the highest winning margin in the country. The hashtag #TharmanforPM went viral. In 2020, his team again outperformed the rest of the party, garnering 75 per cent of the votes.

However, in response to calls that Tharman should get the top job, PAP leaders have consistently ruled him out on account of his race. Lee, when asked during a televised interview in 2017, said race was a factor that voters take into consideration when they go to the ballot box.

Singapore is a multiracial republic where ethnic Chinese make up 75 per cent of the population. Malays account for around 13 per cent, and Indians (a racial category that in Singapore includes anyone of South Asian extraction) just 8 per cent. The PAP has always fielded multiracial slates for parliament and cabinet. However, all three prime ministers have been Chinese.

Tharman himself played down talk of his popularity, saying that he was "not the man for PM". "I'm good at policymaking, good at advising my younger colleagues and supporting the PM, not being the PM," he told local media then.

Regardless of the PAP's doubts about whether Singaporeans will fully accept an ethnic minority politician as prime minister, the latest development suggests that it is betting on Tharman to prevail if the presidential election is contested.

Apart from President Halimah Yacob, Singapore has had four other non-Chinese presidents. Among four, only the late SR Nathan, was elected to the post as it was previously by appointment. Woo said that if Tharman wins the election, it would reflect the "maturity of the Singaporean population".

"It's an ongoing trajectory, the ongoing maturation of the population," he said.

Although a largely ceremonial position, Singapore's president has custodial powers over drawing down of the country's financial reserves and key public sector appointments. Presidential elections have become more politicised, with opponents of the PAP seeing them as an opportunity to contest the party's dominance.

In the 2011 presidential election, the PAP's preferred candidate, former deputy prime minister Tony Tan, won with 35 per cent of the vote in a four-way contest. The 2017 race was uncontested. It was reserved for ethnic Malay candidates after the constitution was amended to guarantee minority representation.

This year's election is open to all races and any contest would be looked at as a barometer of support for the government at a time of public unhappiness with rising prices.

Potential candidates must pass stringent suitability requirements: they must have held top public sector positions for at least three years - as a minister, chief justice or permanent secretary among others - or served an equivalent period as the chief executive of a company with at least S$500 million (US$370 million) in shareholders' equity and generated profit after tax throughout the entire period.

According to a recent report in national newspaper The Straits Times, executive chairman of Banyan Tree Holdings Ho Kwon Ping and former transport minister Khaw Boon Wan were among other potential candidates in the race.

Another establishment figure who has been mentioned as a potential president is former foreign minister George Yeo, who joined Kerry Logistics after losing his seat in the 2011 general election. In March, he reiterated that he will not contest the election.

George Goh, entrepreneur and non-resident ambassador to Morocco, is also among the possible candidates for the presidential election.

Lee Hsien Yang, the estranged brother of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, had said that he was also considering running for the position but he is now abroad after refusing to cooperate with police on potential criminal investigations.

With Tharman's decision, it would be unlikely for another high profile establishment candidate to contest, according to observers. And regardless of who else may run, observers view Tharman as a shoo-in for the post.

Political scientist Walid Jumblatt from Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, said that it was "politically a good move" for the ruling party, since he is one of the most popular politicians in the country, alongside prime minister Lee.

"When it comes to bringing out the big guns, there is no bigger gun than Tharman," he said, though his candidacy may suggest that the party is "anxious" about the election.

"One is that they are anxious, and two is they are taking this extremely seriously. And you know how the saying goes: There are only two ways to run an election - uncontested or scared," he said.

Echoing his sentiments, Woo said: "I think given his stature, his standing, I think if he runs for the presidency, it will indeed be a big deal. He is a very strong candidate who enjoys a lot of popularity with the public."

Though a PAP-backed candidate is likely to win the presidential election, Tharman would sweep the polls and earn a resounding victory, said Walid.

"You can say that it would be setting the tone for the next general election," he added.

Tharman's decision comes just a week after Halimah announced she will not stand for re-election when her six-year term ends on September 13.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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