At the time of writing, with a UPS powering my computer and a little desk lamp lighting the Durban dark, technical analysis from independent energy consultant Pieter Jordaan is forecasting that at the current rate of rising to a higher load shedding stage every 68 days, by August, Eskom will be running out of stages to escalate – breaking through stage 8.
Effectively, this means three, four-hour-long power cuts a day: 12 hours of no electricity. Eskom has already confirmed that it’s revising its schedules and adding more stages. So, how worried should we be about our country’s energy crisis? Will the measures being taken by our government be enough to save us or could we be facing a similar scenario to our hard-pressed Zimbabwean neighbours who get electricity only from midnight to 5am, rising then to cook for the day, wash dishes, bath and mow their lawns?
Unpacking the problem
First, we need to understand the extent of the problem. Our state-owned power supplier, Eskom, has a massive R392 billion debt while also struggling with ageing infrastructure and new power stations that don’t work properly. This is due to shoddy construction linked to corrupt tenders and contracts – sabotage is reported to be rife.
In his ground-breaking interview with eNCA’s Annika Larsen in February, outgoing Eskom CEO André de Ruyter quietly reiterated concerns he’d been raising since January 2021 - of procurement fraud, supplier collusion and crooked
