Thailand election 2023: will vote outcome sway Bangkok and Asean stance on Myanmar engagement?

Any new government to emerge after Thailand's election this Sunday will face the immediate challenge of conflict-ravaged Myanmar, with pressure building on Bangkok to take a tougher line with a neighbour whose economy - and military - is deeply linked to its own.

While Myanmar's crisis has not featured significantly on the campaign trail, observers say the stakes are too high for it to be ignored by the next administration.

Pre-pandemic, an estimated 2 million Myanmar migrants were living and working in Thailand, and tens of thousands more are believed to have entered the kingdom since the February 2021 coup.

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The conflict has also on occasion caused terror to those on the Thai side of the 2,400km land border when Myanmar military planes attacked outposts of ethnic minority insurgent armies in the frontier areas.

Pro-democracy groups opposed to the royalist-military establishment currently in power are projected to have an upper hand in Sunday's vote. Unofficial results could be released on the same evening, but official ones could take weeks to be certified.

James Char, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said any new administration would have to tread carefully in its ties with the Myanmar junta.

"Whether or not there is going to be a change in government ... we can expect Bangkok to continue maintaining contact with the military junta in Myanmar," Char said, adding that Thailand would continue pushing for peace in Myanmar through dialogue along with other regional countries.

This includes the likely continuation of the Track 1.5 Dialogue hosted by Bangkok in March to discuss the crisis and the way forward in seeking a resolution in Myanmar; a Track 1.5 meeting refers to conversations that include representatives of think tanks, academia and government officials who participate in an unofficial capacity.

Since seizing power from the democratically elected government headed by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, the military junta has sought to crush armed resistance to its coup, leading to civilian deaths, arrests and casualties.

However, Greg Raymond, a senior lecturer at the Australian National University (ANU), said a new government might not agree with the Track 1.5 dialogue as many in the region believed that it undermined Asean processes and legitimised the military junta.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has long pushed the junta to adhere to the five-point consensus but with little success; among other things, the consensus called for an immediate end to violence and the holding of dialogue among all parties.

"If the Move Forward Party [MFP] became a coalition partner in government, there is a strong possibility that Thai policy would shift to more support for the National Unity Government [NUG] and less for the military junta," Raymond said.

A progressive centre-left political party, the MFP is known for its pro-democracy platform and its aim to get rid of military influence in Thai politics, while the NUG is made up of elected lawmakers ousted during the 2021 coup.

MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat, 42, has emerged in latest opinion polls as the favourite to be Thailand's next prime minister, ahead of Paetongarn Shinawatra of the main opposition Pheu Thai.

"MFP would also be more supportive of refugees fleeing the Myanmar junta's attacks," Raymond said, but added that the party would need to bargain with its coalition partner Pheu Thai, which is led by the country's powerful Shinawatra clan.

Since the start of the coup, at least 70,000 people have fled Myanmar and more than 1 million were displaced from their homes, according to the UN Human Rights Office.

Pavin Chachavalpongpun, an associate professor at Kyoto University's Centre for Southeast Asian Studies, said Thailand's policy on Myanmar could change if the pro-democracy factions won the election.

The changes "would not be drastic" as the new government had an obligation to support democracy in Myanmar, but "the question is how far the new government can push until we all see some changes inside Myanmar", Chachavalpongpun said.

The Thai army's close ties with the junta also meant its position was unlikely to change even with a new government in place, he added.

Hunter Marston, a PhD candidate at ANU, said the Thai military was likely to continue working closely with the Myanmar junta to ensure delivery of humanitarian aid and safeguard Thailand's national interests, including illegal immigration and counternarcotics.

Noting that a government led by the current opposition was likely to place more emphasis on rights and democratic governance, Marston said Bangkok should be cautious of leaning too far ahead of Asean with its Track 1.5 dialogues.

Working with Asean chair Indonesia to spur talks between the NUG and the junta would better serve Bangkok's long-term interests, Marston added.

During this week's Asean summit in Indonesia, the bloc's leaders called for an immediate end to hostilities and the creation of a conducive environment for the safe and timely delivery of humanitarian assistance in Myanmar.

Thailand's relations with its biggest trading partner China could also come under scrutiny should groups such as MFP become more prominent in government. MFP leader Pita has called for a more active foreign policy that is not too afraid of offending China.

Chachavalpongpun said few changes were expected as "the relationship has been amicable no matter the regime in Thailand".

"Thailand sees its relations with China as important, given its proximity and business links; both countries understand that they will not allow politics to interfere in their relationship," he said.

However, a more democratic government in which MFP was a coalition partner might be "more outspoken on issues such as Uyghurs and Hong Kong, and more reluctant to return Uyghur asylum seekers to China", ANU's Raymond said.

In recent years, ethnic Uyghurs fled Xinjiang to escape alleged persecution, but many crossed into Thailand only to end up in detention centres and face constant threats of being sent back to China by the Thai government.

Marston said Thailand's "gravitation towards China" could slow if the opposition party calculated that Bangkok's interests were better served by a more independent hedging policy.

"It could restore stronger ties with Washington, which Washington is keen to reciprocate," Marston added.

Last July, Thailand and the US signed agreements on law enforcement, security and intelligence cooperation as Washington stepped up efforts to counter expanding Chinese influence in Asia.

Additional reporting by Aidan Jones

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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