Indonesia 2024 election: Ganjar has Jokowi's vote, but will Prabowo be his vice-president?
In early March, Indonesian President Joko Widodo visited a rice paddy in Central Java's Kebumen district, where he took cheerful selfies with farmers together with Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto.
The blusukan, or a direct meeting with constituents, fuelled speculation Widodo may have persuaded the duo to run on the same ticket in the 2024 presidential election, with one of the men having to put aside their presidential aspirations - which for Prabowo dates back almost two decades.
The conjecture follows a recent report by leading Indonesian newspaper Kompas, which quoted an unnamed source in the State Palace as saying Widodo recommended the pairing to his political party, PDI-P. The proposal was likely brought up when Widodo met party chairwoman and former president Megawati Sukarnoputri, on March 18.
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Over their three-hour meeting, Widodo expressed concern about the future of his policy programmes. At the end, the two politicians had "come to the same understanding" on which names would appear on the party's ticket next year, PDI-P secretary general Hasto Kristiyanto told reporters at that time. Megawati is expected to announce her decision in June.
Ganjar has emerged as the consistent front-runner in public opinion polls in the past year, while Prabowo has been second or third, coming neck and neck with former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who is expected to run as an opposition party presidential nominee.
A survey released by Jakarta-based pollster Indikator Politik on Sunday showed that 36.8 per cent of 1,200 respondents would vote for Ganjar if elections were held now. Prabowo was second with 27 per cent, followed by Anies at 26.8 per cent.
Widodo's second and final term will come to an end next year. He is barred by the constitution from seeking a third.
Djayadi Hanan, executive director at the Jakarta-based Indonesia Survey Institute, said the tight bond recently portrayed by the trio showed that Widodo already had a preferred candidate even if his party had not made a decision.
"Jokowi seems to be giving a signal to his supporters that he will either support Ganjar or Prabowo, not Anies or other candidates," Djayadi said. "No one can win the presidential election unless they get the votes from some of Jokowi's supporters who voted for him in 2019."
As a high-ranking PDI-P member, Ganjar is the most likely to continue Widodo's programmes, such as the construction of the new capital Nusantara in Borneo, the revamping of the domestic mining industry, and a number of infrastructure projects, which include a green industrial estate in North Kalimantan.
Widodo is likely to support the person most capable of guaranteeing his programmes will be completed and "those who have given the guarantee seem to be Prabowo and Ganjar", Djayadi said.
Widodo himself has hinted his support for the silver-haired Ganjar, when he quipped in November the right person to succeed him will have to be a "white-haired" figure.
However, Widodo has also expressed support for the man he twice beat to the presidency. In November, he said victory in the 2024 election "is reserved for Prabowo".
According to Burhanudin Muhtadi, executive director at Indikator Politik, the latest polls show that Widodo's endorsement helped boost Prabowo's profile by 2 per cent among respondents who voted for Widodo in 2019.
"So if there is no Jokowi endorsement, it's just a matter of time, his support will run out," Burhanuddin told reporters on Sunday.
Ultimately, the pairing of Ganjar and Prabowo would have to be approved by Megawati, who is likely warming to the idea of nominating Ganjar on PDI-P's ticket rather than her daughter, Puan Maharani, who is the speaker of the House of Representatives.
Ray Rangkuti, executive director and political observer with elections and parliamentary watchdog Lingkar Madani, said it remained to be seen if Prabowo would accept a deputy role: "Who will be the number one and who will be the number two? Would Prabowo want to be number two, under Ganjar?"
Prabowo, a former general with a questionable human rights track record, has campaigned for the presidency of Southeast Asia's largest economy for almost two decades.
In 2004, Prabowo sought the presidential nomination by his then-political party Golkar, but lost the bid to fellow ex-general Wiranto. In 2009, a year after founding his own political party Gerindra, he paired with Megawati as her vice-presidential running mate. The pair lost to former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
Prabowo, a former son-in-law of the late Indonesian dictator Suharto, lost to Widodo in the 2014 and 2019 elections. He then joined Widodo's political alliance after he was appointed minister of defence. In August, he declared he would run again in 2024.
Ray from watchdog Lingkar Madani said if Prabowo agreed to run with Ganjar, they would be a winning pair.
"He agreed to be a minister under Jokowi, so I think he would also agree to be a vice-president," Ray said. "If Prabowo is willing to be the number two, I think this pair will win the election in one round."
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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