The Atlantic

Would You Have a Baby If You Won the Lottery?

One of the most popular explanations for declining fertility may be wrong.
Source: Illustration by Matt Chase / The Atlantic. Source: Getty.

South Korea’s fertility rate in 2022 was just 0.78 children per woman. In much of America, rates aren’t significantly higher: 0.92 children per woman in Puerto Rico and 1.36 in Vermont; in the Bay Area, it’s about 1.3. Demographers give many explanations for declining birth rates, but one of the most popular revolves around work and family. In countries such as the social-welfare states of Northern Europe, where women are given flexibility to square the demands of work with family, fertility rates are relatively high. In others, where either work or family makes excessive and incompatible demands, family loses out, and fertility falls.

Improving work-life balance is probably worthwhile and good for plenty of reasons.. And although policies to support work and family do boost fertility, their (though they may have other valuable benefits: Child allowances, for example, child poverty).

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