The French statesman Georges Clemenceau once said: “War is a series of catastrophes that results in a victory.” In the case of the invasion of Iraq, however, the war that began 20 years ago started in victory and has ended in a series of catastrophes.
The US military withdrawal from Iraq was ultimately completed by 2011, finally answering the question posed by Gen David Petraeus during that first push to Baghdad in 2003: “Tell me, how does this end?” Yet the long shadow of the invasion still looms over the international order, staining the reputation of those who instigated it and dealing a heavy blow to the confidence that had buoyed the west after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
At this distance, 20 years on, it seems to matter less whether the war was launched on a deceit, a distortion or a sincere false premise. It was a blunder that looks worse with every year and memoir. Barack Obama drew one lesson from the episode: “Don’t do stupid shit.”
The risks for Iraq were spelt out by experts in Britain such as Rosemary Hollis and Toby Dodge
