We’ve had enough of experts. Just about every forecast made by economic and market experts six months ago has been proved wrong. Developed economies have not plunged into recession. Despite a cold winter, UK and European gas prices as well as oil prices have fallen to levels last seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Budget deficits are significantly undershooting expectations. Corporate earnings have not collapsed, but gently deflated. Equity markets are not heading for new lows, but rallied over the year-end.
Annualised inflation remains high for now, but looks likely to fall back towards the 2% target in the UK and US later this year. Interest rates have not peaked yet, but a peak looks imminent. Government bond yields have not risen nearly as far as confidently predicted, while defaults in the corporate sector
