US, Britain, Australia leaders unveil plan to provide Aukus nuclear submarines

Australia will purchase up to five conventionally armed, nuclear powered US submarines starting early in the 2030s followed a decade later by production of a new class of "SSN Aukus" nuclear-powered submarines developed in partnership with the US and Britain to counter China's growing regional footprint, American officials said.

The formal announcement by President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in San Diego on Monday comes 18 months after the three nations unveiled a military alliance dubbed Aukus that has stoked Beijing's ire.

"We believe in a world that protects freedom and respects human rights, the rule of law, the independence of sovereign states, and the rules-based international order," the leaders said in a joint statement on Monday.

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"The steps we are announcing today will help us to advance these mutually beneficial objectives in the decades to come."

Selling US Virginia-class submarines to Australia will avoid a "capability gap" when its Collins-class diesel-electric subs are retired in the 2030s, a senior White House official said in a briefing on Sunday.

Another senior US official denied that the new alliance aims to contain China. It will integrate three-nation submarine operations, greatly extend the range of Australia's underwater fleet and allow patrols far closer to the Asian mainland without a port call.

He instead suggested that Beijing had played a significant role in the hardened response among US allies in the Indo-Pacific given its "provocations" in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, military exercises with Russia, border clashes with India and "economic warfare" with Australia.

Since the Aukus announcement 18 months ago, members have been working on sharing technology, how best to bring the submarines on line and how to guard against nuclear proliferation and bulk up Australia's expertise.

During the alliance's first phase, currently under way, US and UK nuclear-powered submarines will visit Australia regularly, giving workers and crews time to expand port facilities, train jointly and build up their maintenance and shipbuilding skills.

Once Australia is up to speed, as early as 2027, the three English-speaking partners will establish a regular schedule of visiting US and UK submarines in Australia that will be called Submarine Rotational Forces West, steadily increasing the number of American and British underwater vessels in the Pacific at any given time.

This is designed to deter Beijing from considering hostilities against self-governing Taiwan before the full submarine building programme is complete, analysts said.

The second phase, starting in the early 2030s, will see Canberra buy three of the US Virginia-class submarines with an option to buy two more.

In the third phase, planned for the late 2030s, the three nations will produce the new state-of-the-art nuclear-powered SSN Aukus that works off existing British designs - among the UK's most advanced is the Astute-class fleet - and incorporates technology from the US Virginia vessels.

These vessels will be built and deployed in both Australia and Britain, with the UK-built ships in the late 2030s and the first Australian-built ship expected by the early 2040s.

Canberra said it had no intention of using the shared Aukus nuclear propulsion technology to pursue nuclear weapon development. It has also pledged to leave enriching of uranium to others and to manage all spent nuclear waste in Australia.

"This is going to require significant improvements in industrial bases in all three countries," the first senior US official said. "And Aukus will adhere to the highest non-proliferation standards."

On Monday, Britain unveiled an integrated defence and diplomacy review, a day after London confirmed plans to increase defence spending by £5 billion (US$6 billion) over the next two years and introduce new measures to address China's "increasingly concerning" military, financial and diplomatic activities. Australia has likewise signalled plans to boost its defence budget, while the Pentagon on Monday announced its largest-ever requested spending increase.

"Our goal is to deter, because competition does not mean conflict," US Deputy Defence Secretary Kathleen Hicks said in Washington. "Still, we must have the combat credibility to win if we must fight."

American officials sought to downplay the budgetary and related challenges facing the three countries, adding that Russia's invasion of Ukraine a year ago had reinforced support for a strong defence among the three democracies.

However, some analysts warned that the programme's cost could be problematic, particularly for Britain following the toll exacted by Brexit, its economic divorce from the European Union.

The 115-metre (377-foot) long Virginia-class vessels cost about US$2.8 billion each, and the 97 metre-long Astute-class submarines cost about US$2 billion apiece.

Beijing has decried the alliance, warning that Aukus risks launching an arms race, furthering a "Cold War mentality" and threatens to undermine global non-proliferation efforts.

American officials briefing the media on Sunday said the alliance would be fully transparent and adhere to the highest non-proliferation standards. Beijing, for its part, has embarked on an aggressive nuclear weapons build-up in recent years and opted not to participate in global treaties to check their spread.

As relations between Washington and Beijing have hit new lows, analysts note a pattern of tit-for-tat moves, with each convinced the other side is the aggressor.

"Each step that the US takes with allies to bolster defence and deterrence is described by Washington as a response to a China challenge and by Beijing as yet another move to contain and encircle China," said Daniel Russel of the Asia Society Policy Institute and formerly a long-time State Department and National Security Council official.

"The net effect of Monday's Aukus announcement may well be to ensure China's military can get generous funding for its own submarine - and anti-sub warfare - programmes," he said.

Another challenge is that the US is well behind in producing its own Virginia-class submarines. Fewer than two dozen have been delivered of the 66 planned, which could leave it distracted.

In addition, a tangle of US export control regulations potentially undercut efforts to share advanced American military hardware. The rules have become more complicated as Washington works to keep advanced semiconductors and related technologies out of Beijing's hands.

"Without changes to the rules governing export controls, America is unlikely to see its allies either as capable or perhaps as willing to contribute to regional security," said Charles Edel, Australia chair at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

"This is a question about whether there will be enough political pressure to force changes in the way the US shares sensitive technology and collaborates with both Australia and Britain," he added.

Even as the Biden administration has made stronger alliances a cornerstone of its China strategy, China has sought to bolster its own partnerships, underscored last week when Beijing brokered a rapprochement between long-time adversaries Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The development coincided with both powers seeking to score points and claim the moral high ground amid their intensifying competition.

"For China, drawing European powers like the UK deeper into Asia's security mix may be even more disturbing than the prospect of Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines," said Russel.

"Beijing will add the Aukus announcement to a list of offences that already includes American military aid to Ukraine and Taiwan," he said.

"They will paint a sharp contrast between US weapons sales and China's diplomatic success in brokering an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia."

Additional reporting by Khushboo Razdan in New York and Chad Bray in London

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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