Business leaders and economists are not unanimous about the prospects for economic growth but are convinced that the rising trend of salary adjustment and salary dollarization will continue this year. Most of them agree that employment levels will remain basically the same although some sectors like manufacturing and information technology are hiring. Sales levels, in general, are likely to remain unchanged. Inflation may increase, not just in lira, but also in real dollars.
Modest GDP growth
The future performance of the economy hangs on achieving positive political outcomes and implementing reforms. Marwan Barakat, Group Chief Economist and Head of Research at Bank Audi, said that developments in 2023 could be envisioned under three scenarios. Under the most likely scenario – positive political developments but no economic reforms – GDP will grow one to two percent, coupled with a moderate deficit in the balance of payments (BoP), and foreign currency reserves at the Central Bank (BDL) falling to relatively acceptable levels. Mounir Rached, Chairman of the Lebanese Economic Association (LEA) expects a one percent economic growth this year as only a few sectors are growing, such as tourism, import substitution, and exports, while all other sectors are stagnating.
Better performance in the second half
According to economist , GDP is likely to grow by two percent in 2023. “GDP is not expected to improve in the first half of 2023 as the major problems facing the country are not likely to be addressed during this period. One of these problems is electricity. Economic activity may improve in the second half of the year driven by the arrivals of expats in summer and during holidays,” he said. Passenger traffic at the airport has already rebounded increasing 47 percent in 2022, who is currently Chairman of the Lebanese Economic Organizations, said: “The earlier a President is elected, the better. Political and security stability are crucial. This could attract more tourists to the country.” According to , Chairman of the International Chamber of Commerce-Lebanon, the economy may improve in 2023 driven by some recovery in the private sector.
